Looks pretty loaded tomorrow. Would not be surprised to see a 2 bagger at FG and he probably will not even be there.
La Derby is pretty balanced with several new shooters and others who figure to improve. But FF has beaten several of these once already and figures to still be improving after perservering to a win in roughly run LeComte. Must be used at marginal value
one workout for Old Fashioned since the last effort...thoughts?
Ran pretty hard first out. If he got a lot out of it he probably doesn\'t need much work.
First Sat in May is still seven weeks away. No need to be peaking now.......
He\'s thinking 4 races ahead.
I wouldn\'t read too much into it. If Jones feels a horse is getting what he or she needs from racing, Jones is going to take it easy with the horse in the mornings. For example, Eight Belles had one published work between 10-07-07 and 2-11-08 while racing five times during that period.
All of his horses figure to run big tomorrow.
KK in the FG Sprint may need one but this one can pack a late punch, gets a long stretch, and this field is not the Vosburgh or Cigar Mile
In the La. Derby,I expect Terrain to win and pay $30.
Some of these FG races look like a Chinese Buffet\'.
Everything looks so good you don\'t know where to start
Dry Martini was shuffled back and caught in heavy traffic in the Sunshine Millions in first race back down south.
Runaway winner Its A Bird got the trip, gots a rest and gets the rail.
Macho Again needed last, barn was sick over winter, back class 3YO loses Kent D but may go off at price.
Another late developing 4YO Lemon Drop Kid ships in under the radar and in the dark of the knightfor trainer who knows the dam side pedigree pretty damn good.
Bombs Away underneath!
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Some of these FG races look like a Chinese
> Buffet\'.
>
> Everything looks so good you don\'t know where to
> start
>
Unfortunately, it usually ends with a stomach ache and \"other symptoms\". Hope you\'re feeling well tonight, Good Luck.
Not anymore. This was a poor effort.
Vans are leaving their respective tracks and heading to Oaklawn for the Ark Derby as I type.
Even though he moved to the lead late on the turn he looked empty at the head of the stretch.
Too Fast Too Soon TGJB?
doubt it...as I posted previously this week - only ONE work since the last race...hand ridden, never asked in deept stretch. Track was fine, we didn\'t get any rain since last night here. You may be right, but most of the folks at the track were not surprised as the common theme seemed to be \"keep it fresh, he already has the $$\"...this is, of course as much a travesty to the bettors as a certain product\'s analysis was today at several tracks, OAK included. Can\'t wait to redboard the TQ tomorrow.
Need to see the final figure for the race before final judgment on Old Fashioned. At first glance, those of us that want to believe he has a distance challenged pedigree saw that today. He effortlessly took the lead at the top of the stretch, looked like he would win by 10, then got caught late in the stretch. And this was ONLY 1 1/16.
However, as pointed out by shanahan, the light workout pattern by old fashioned, means he may not have been cranked up yet. And secondly, there was a huge gap back to the 3rd place finisher. If not for the 50-1 winner being in the race, old fashioned would have had his big margin win. That is why the figure is important. Perhaps it wasn\'t slow.
Then again, why anybody would want to read any of my postings after my tout of Hello Broadway for the Derby earlier today, is beyond me...... Well, when wrong, sometimes it is better to be really really wrong.......
This was a bad race for OF no matter what the number says. And what I mean is if the final fig is OK he walked home. The need to stalk a quick pace is not good and the inability to drive to the wire in something less than 33 for the final 5/16ths is even worse.
The other Jones 3YO FF looks like a pit bull in a China closet and would kick this OF\'s ass at a mile and an eighth.
Jimbo no need to fret about Pool 1 bets there is still Pool 2 and Dunkirk is stting there at a juicy 6-1 off that 1:01 breeze today.
I\'ll be getting a little more tomorrow. (smiley)
Agree absolutely, Jimbo. Without figures all we have is a subjective picture of how a horse did in relation to other horses whose performances are themselves just relative evaluations. We need figures as a relatively objective base to tie the performances to.
Bob
How about a little future exacta - FF with Imperial Council? Old Fashioned looks like a nice derby rabbit. Curious why we didn\'t see Flat Out run in the Rebel.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Jimbo no need to fret about Pool 1 bets there is
> still Pool 2 and Dunkirk is stting there at a
> juicy 6-1 off that 1:01 breeze today.
>
I would have a hard time calling any horse at 6-1 \"juicy\" in mid March. Its still a long way from the starting gate. How many favorites are even 3-1 in the Derby??
Tell me you\'re joking.
P-Dub,
6-1 is a ridiculous underlay on Dunkirk. For Dunkirk to even race in the derby, he likely has to win the Florida derby (graded earnings issue). So, by betting him now in the futures, you are betting a Florida Derby - Kentucky Derby win parlay.
Let\'s say He figures maybe 3-2 or so in the Florida Derby as he will face Quality Road and some other pretty good horses. That means if he wins impressively and goes off at say 4-1 or so in the Kentucky Derby, the parlay price would be $25.00 or 11.5 to 1. Almost double the current offered 6-1. And this doesn\'t take into consideration the chance he gets hurt.
As you look at the races so far, I can make a case that the only value in pool 2 might be the field. All the favorites have reasonable knocks against them.
Old Fashioned - appears distance challenged
Friesan Fire - probably ran a negative number today which makes him a bounce candidate, plus today\'s race is the only number he has run that gives him a number that wins the derby and it was on a wet track which he is well bred for.
Pioneer of the Nile - Will not have raced on dirt this year, nor does he have the breeding or stride for it.
I Want Revenge - a likely bounce candidate off the freak gotham number
Quality Road - huge 1 turn number, but still not proven around 2 turns.
Dunkirk - tough for him to get into the derby starting gate, not to mention the complete lack of a 2 year old foundation. If curlin couldn\'t overcome it, you really want to bet that this guy is better than Curlin?
gimme a fast horse with no knocks?
jimbo66,
\"She\'s every jockey\'s dream,\" said Borel. \"I think she\'s the best thing in the country right now.
\"The Kentucky Derby will be in the discussion,\" said Wiggins. \"We\'ll have to think about it.\"
Gimme the knocks?
mjs
But my Palm Meadows Trackman said the Dunkirk 5F breeze in 101 was \"the best he has ever seen.Destroyed his workmate\"
With tanks blazzing and machines crushing everything in their path Dunkirk marchs on.
Track was listed as good but was very dull/slow all day.OF had no excuse unless he was under trained or did not care for the surface. Regardless of the fig, a common performance at best(pace was hot early).Has not demonstrated the ability to get the last 1/8 th in his races except for the very slow paced Remsen. Faster on TG than elsewhere.Not improving at all,imo.
Paint a bulls eye on this fraud!
Mike
\"Then again, why anybody would want to read any of my postings after my tout of Hello Broadway for the Derby earlier today, is beyond me.
...did not help that he was taken back to last and sent 7 wide into the first turn.Seen him train,he\'s much better than that.
Mike
Not sure if a 5 furlong 1:01 move can be the best workout ever. I don\'t care how easily he did it, 1:01 isn\'t fast.
Just guessing, but looks like she ran another figure in the 0 range yesterday. If so, she will have run two really fast figures in a row for a 3 year old filly relatively early in the season.
Fillies against colts, 1 1/4, on dirt, in May of their 3 year old season, is still a tall order. 20 horse field, she won\'t get a trip like yesterday.
But hey, she won\'t look dissimilar to eight belles of last year, as Eight belles ran a few 1\'s in a row, relatively tightly spaced, coming into the derby.
However, Eight Belles was running against an AWFUL groupo of 3 year old colts, with the exception of Big Brown.
This crop of 3 year old colts is much much stronger. Negative 3 and changes for Quality Road and I Want Revenge, untapped potential with Dunkirk, and probably another negative territory horse with Friesan Fire. And we still have another round of preps to go. If memory serves me right, only Big Brown had run a negative number last year.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> she won\'t get a trip like yesterday.
No but she gets four pounds Derby Day which adds another point to those 0\'s and nobody who was mentioned so far has paired anything, yet....
> If memory serves me right, only Big Brown had run a negative number
> last year.
Hey Byrn
Hal Wiggins goes to the same church as my dad in Lou,Ky and from what I hear is a good man. I hope he runs. I hope she wins. And I hope they make Shane Sellers present them the Garland of Roses.......
I hate to split hairs jimbo,but all those you mentioned made your recent list
of horses that can be knocked.
Borel was gushing like Charley at the Wonka factory.Her breeding seems to support
she\'s probably not distance challenged and she has a nice tight fig pattern
working.(depending on her number yesterday of course).Hoping she makes the derby
gate and is dismissed dur to her gender.
good luck,
mjs
What was most significant about the work is that he finished the last quarter in 23 and change and demolished his workmate.
You are correct though, that workouts, are not by themselves good indicators of a horse\'s ability. They are, however, often useful in determining whether a horse, who has already proven himself in races, is holding form, so Dunkirk\'s work is a good sign for those that already like his chances.
Bob
Flighted Iron,
You are correct, those that I mentioned that are faster than the filly, like Quality Road and I Want Revenge do have knocks. And I guess you are right, she doesn\'t really have a true knock. Pairing up a fast number isn\'t a knock. She is a quality filly for sure, and if she runs in the Kentucky Oaks, she will absolutely trounce Stardom Bound. I wouldn\'t take Stardom Bound +4 lengths in a matchup bet with RAchel Alexandra. Good luck with her, if she turns out to be your bet.
I have taken a closer look at Quality Road\'s sheet today and he doesn\'t really have to bounce, despite the negative 3 and change. Didn\'t realize the 2 year old race was a \"0\". He has improved 3 points this year to the negative 3, which is in line with the average improvement from 2 to 3 of Elusive Quality progeny. Granted, this is a little skewed because he ran the \"0\" pretty late in his 2 year old year. Still, the negative 3 is only a 3 point new top. If he pairs up or runs something near it in the Florida Derby, he will then have 5 weeks to get back to the top in the Derby, which makes this horse very formidable IMHO, albeit lightly seasoned. He hasn\'t run around 2 turns which is a problem, and Elusive Quality was a miler, but we saw with Smarty Jones and last year\'s BC Classic winner that Elusive Quality\'s can get a distance with the right female side. Can Any breeding experts out there shed some light on the dam side of the pedigree. At first glance, from a non-pedigree expert, the Strawberry Road damsire should help with stamina and the dam being a full to ajina, who won at various distances also might be OK.
Thoughts?
BTW, this guy against Dunkirk is going to be a very good matchup next week.
Strawberry Road - offspring out of his dams only have a 7.38f avg winning distance in stakes races and only 2.9% of stakes wins have been at Triple Crown distances. Just a stat, but that\'s what it is.
Knock!Knock!Knocks-- Freisan Fire
FF has had 3 perfect trips in his 3 FG stakes wins.
How long can FF\'s luck continue?
I don\'t know how far Quality Road wants to stretch out, but I like him a lot better than Dunkirk based on what they have done to date. In my opinion, Dunkirk is the most overhyped horse this spring even if he\'s a good prospect.
Any knocks on Theregoesjojo?
Yet to go two turns,but 9f\'s shouldn\'t be a problem.Dunkirk,QR and Beethoven all come into the Fla Derby off larger new tops.
TGJojo needs second money to lock up a slot at Churchill.Pair or better in the Fla Derby should nail it-then 5 weeks into the Derby.
In the last few years many 3yr olds have been out running their distance pedigree. If they get 9f around two turns, I think it\'s ok to take a derby shot regardless of lack of distance pedigree.Those who watched QR train are a little dubious about his distance ablity.The Mig worked this horse all winter for Jerkens in NY and flatly stated that this was a special horse before he ever ran.
Saturday, as Jim stated will tell lots about his distance limitations, if any.
Mike
Bee,
Something heard BEFORE this past weekend was that several inside the Jones camp felt that FF was a better horse than Old Fashioned, although better was not defined.
As far as FF\'s perfect trips I agree, but it only highlights the importance of a horse being athletic and in possession of tactical speed.One run closers rarely get consistent perfect trips as that running style puts them at the mercy of race shape.
Mike
Cart,
Dunkirk did something that very few do. He won from an outside post at GP despite losing enormous ground on the first turn, in a fast quarter.Two recent winners at GP who beat the outside post were Big Brown and Barbaro.
Dunkirk lacks experience and may have already done way too much off very little foundation but his talent, so far,is difficult to question, imo.
Mike