Last Saturday I was at Santa Anita not only watching and wagering on the races but beforehand taking part in a Big Cap seminar at 10:15am in the executive board room with my colleague Jason Levin, the host of Inside Racing. Santa Anita put up signs directing patrons to the seminar and was kind enough to prepare coffee, tea, decaf, and/or water for attendees. Jason brought the donuts. Nature also cooperated, thankfully.
Jason and I arrived at the executive board room slightly before gates opened (10am) to four of five earlybirds seated in the row of chairs, ten or so, parallel to the oblong board table abutting the windows. Jason set up on the far side, away from the outside doors, at the executive throne, Frank Stronach\'s perch. I set up at the other end. The board room, initially, seemed roomy enough and was certainly comfortable but people kept showing up and Jason went to see about getting more chairs. The thirty or so available chairs quickly filled up.
We started the seminar and more and more people kept streaming in. Pretty soon, we were SRO, with a good bunch standing in rows behind me. Others were circling the table and more were standing in the door portals with people cocking their ears straining to hear even if they couldn\'t see (so I was told).
Frankly even though I didn\'t know what numbers to expect, the SRO turnout was encouraging and made me feel as though the trip was worthwhile. I think Jason and I did a good job handicapping the card and while, realistically, I feel, there was a lot left on the table, I think Gio Ponti at 12.80, Einstein at 12.00, and the 3rd exacta of Van Brit/Pericia Fina 406.20 (and potentially the triple and super if you used Jason\'s top choice and my other horse) in addition to Jason\'s good call on I Want Revenge was a good job of handicapping. In particular that third was a good value-laden example of the potency of Thoro-Graph figures, especially when graphed and shown in the context of form cycles. (I stated before the seminar began that all selections today were mine and mine alone and may differ from what was offered for sale on the web sites.)
Also attendees got sincere, honest information from a rep, Joe I think, of the Class Racing Stable. They had, I believe, two runners on the card, one of whom was Apoplectic, winner of the 6th at 12.8-1. He said the horse was training well but would probably need one. Hard for him to come out and say they\'d win. That would be a big boast, but Thoro-Graph data users should know by now that trainer Craig Dollase is quite capable off long layoffs. Jason said if Apoplectic won we were all coming down to the winner\'s circle and Joe said sure. Well a bunch of us went down and got our picture taken. That was fun and unexpected--we\'re handicappers primarily, not owners.
Anyway the seminar was good fun. I just want to say thanks to the people who came out. I\'ve been on the radio for quite a while and usually I\'m sitting here alone on Saturday morning, at a decent hour I might add, and it\'s nice to know that indeed people are listening and it was good to see some of you.
I also want to take this opportunity to thank Jason who organized this on his end in conjunction with the Santa Anita people--Chris Quinn, Alan Gutterman. Thanks to Jonathan for making sure the package got to me and in particular,I\'d like to thank Ron Charles, President of Santa Anita, who in the midst of the seminar dropped in an presented Jason with clubhouse seats for all attendees, gratis, which were handed out to those that wanted them afterwards. That was a thoughtful and kind gesture.
As I said at the seminar, handicapping with Thoro-Graph data is not rocket science. Anyone employing patience and discipline can learn to use Thoro-Graph data for their benefit. We\'re happy to serve people who only want our opinions (analysis) either on this site or Racingjason.com. But for all of you who want to partake and solve the handicapping puzzles themselves, Thoro-Graph data are available two nights ahead of race day online and hardcopy is available for Southern California tracks and simulcasts at Valentine\'s Liquors year round the day before racing (see sales sites page). Also the Race of the Week, ROTW, and the Redboard Room, both online and free, are there to help one\'s Thoro-Graph education,as well as the Ask the Experts bulletin board where you can get live feedback from questions posed.
P.S.--Santa Anita was beautiful and it was gratifying to see people enjoying a day at the races. I might add that later at dinner that evening, I had the pleasure of meeting Laffit Pincay III, a commentator on HRTV and his dad, Hall of Fame jockey, Laffit Pincay Jr. I was speechless shaking Mr. Pincay\'s hand and didn\'t say anything other than I was an admirer. People, like me, meeting idols, can sometimes unintentionally be invasive. Anyway, in my hotel room later, I was thinking I should of said somthing. Something like:
1978
August
Saratoga
Travers
What happened?
I was there that day and made the biggest bet on my life on Affirmed, Pincay Jr. up, who was a mortal lock at 3-5. Easy money. Well Angel Cordero (who I saw by the way at SA--he looked great) rode Shake Shake Shake and he managed to get inbetween the rail and Affirmed, and others, annoying Laffit so much so that he, Laffit, came over and shut off not only Shake Shake Shake, but Alydar who was a length or so further back on the rail I believe. All of the sudden 40,000 people moaned all at once (I kid you not) and we all knew that Affirmed was coming down. That was about my 10th or so hard luck lesson in not betting odds-on mortal locks. Of course, it took me several ___ (fill in the blank) more lessons before I realized the troika--randomness, low odds, horses--was one sure fire combination to fulfill the Runyonesque prophecy that \"all horseplayers must die broke.\"
TGAB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve been on the radio for quite a while
Maybe I\'m the only person on the board that didn\'t know this, but what station / time / etc., please?
Maybe I can grab it over the \'net.
The show is Inside Racing w/Jason Levin which airs on Saturdays at 7:00am pdt on 570AM in Los Angeles. It\'s also streamed online at am570radio.com.
Funny story and memory Alan. I met the man twice myself and felt the same way you did. The first time actually did have the luxury of asking about one of my all time favorites Forty Niner.
He said when he was beaten a head by Alysheba in the Marlboro Cup in track record time he told the connections to put blinkers the horse and the outcome would be turned around next time. Next time turned out to be the then called NYRA Mile and there was a riders strike so 49er was ridden by non-union scab Billy Fox. No sh!t a big time Grade One with scab riders. When the Breeders Cup rolled around he didn\'t get the mount back and 49er did not get his blinkers and subsequently ran fourth.
The stories these guys could tell would keep us all up on the edge of our seats for hours if not days. Nice day of picking winners. And you are forgiven for coming on my little nothing radio show way back then and picking the Lukas horse Cape Town. (We were the only guys he interviewed with that year, a bit of a feud was going on. The real media guys are probably laughing that was every year) when you guys were entered with Victory Gallop.
Alan, I appreciate and look forward to your handicapping with Jason every week. Jason is a class act and my wife and I have had the pleasure of meeting him (along with Mrs. Racing Jason) a few times. I am not surprised you \"sold out\" the seminar...keep it going - how about coming to Hot Springs?
Great description of a wonderful experience which also reminds everyone that there are still a number of things which make this game special. I must say that this was one post I very much enjoyed reading.
Count me among those who regularly listen to and enjoy the Saturday show which, along with Steve Byk\'s daily show, are imo easily the two best in a surprisingly robust radio lineup, given how little coverage the sport receives in other media.
For those who are interested, you can find links to and a list of all such shows on the XpressBet site.
Rick, if you go to racingjason.com you can listen live, and there is usually a link up to listen to the previous week\'s show within a few days after it airs. Jason does a good job as host. Alan is always picking horses that do well at nice prices, and I\'ve also been impressed with Bruce\'s handicapping. Definitely pay attention to whatever Bruce picks in northern CA.
Alan, glad the seminar went well.
Thanks guys.
Simulcasting is great...but it\'s even better when you get to hear the thoughts of someone that specializes in a given track. And I\'ve seen enough references to Alan\'s bombs to know that I should be giving him a listen, too.
Maybe it was posted somewhere but if I had known there was a seminar at Santa Anita I would have driven from AZ to meet you.
I had the chance to confront (for lack of a better word) a hall of fame jockey (to remain nameless) and question his ride from years prior. It was the most therapeutic five minute rant I have ever had.
He also said I was right!
A treat to read Alan. It sure is nice to spend some time reading a positive post about a positive experience in horseracing on this board. They\'re too few and too far between. I only wish that I had the advantage of getting your insight before playing in the LRL contest that day.
Alan as I pondered your story I could not help but think about my own personal waterloo which was Chiefs Crown. A four consecutive winner parlay on him in the Derby and then a foolish attempt to get half of it back at 3-5 in the Preakness. We all, early in our wagering careers, fall in love with a Big Horse, make stupid sizable wagers at low odds and eventually learn the hard way.
But then something came to mind that struck me as being very odd and as a matter of fact quite coincidental. You said you made the bet of your life on Affirmed at 3-5, and again this was 30 years ago so people can be excused for doing something a little foolish, we were all a lot younger then, as he faced his arch rival Alydar.
Seems I remember another post here once by Mr Brown that he put somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 large on Alydar that same year in the Derby. The still biggest bet of his life. The fault he said came on the last Ragozin number he relied upon which made Alydar 2-3 points faster than the rest of the field. The fact he had done it only 11 days before in the Blue Grass was moot.
As I said we all learn the hard way and in a round about way this is what makes us better handicappers and players. I can only speculate about how old you guys were at the time, very very young indeed. But it is very ironic that you two suffered the same headdown long walk home with two legendary racing rivals and now have become legendary handicapping partners yourselves.
Nice read Alan. I\'m still waiting for your book.
Well I don\'t know that it\'s ironic. I mean anyone involved in racing in 1978 was wrapped up in the Triple Crown featuring the two solid rivals--Affirmed and Alydar. All the sheet guys salivated on betting Alydar (so I heard) since he always ran wide and earned a better figure. I do suppose the younger one is the more one wants to boast about one\'s exploits and acumen which translates to--I had it. I hit the big one, fools! 3-5 was a gift. Yeah, I ate some crow back then. I\'m older and wiser but still mortal which means I still make some bad bets every once in a while. Of course, these days, I keep it to myself. No facebook for me.
Here\'s the replay of the \'78 Travers for old times sake
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6qUCO_bLns
Interesting that on this day Alydar was the one who switched leads down the stretch and Affirmed did not.
Alan maybe somewhere in there lies your answer of why the jock felt the need to squeeze the hole so tight on Alydar.
Also thanks for the very down to earth answer. I think one of things anybody can learn from is that maybe the mistakes the wannabes make, the great ones made them too........learned from it and become better at the game.
\"All the sheet guys salivated on betting Alydar (so I heard) since he always ran wide and earned a better figure\"
...very true Alan, I was one of them but that series Affirmed vs Alydar shaped my interpretation of TG afterwards.
Mike
Alan - I really enjoyed this post and I couldn\'t respond when I read it...good stuff!
Plus nice job on ROTW.
Easy Game. - HP