Astoundingly enough, there are a couple of posts on the Ragozin board today worth reading. Even more astoundingly (maybe), they come from someone who is (and will continue to be) barred from here.
Our old friend (read pain in the butt) Class Handicapper, who in the post says he can be repetitive (NO!!!) and gets criticized for it (well, yeah...), discusses the synthetic/dirt figure issues at some length. Some of the things he says are similar to things I and others have said on this site, some I disagree with, and all of it is not news to those who read his posts here. But it is a fairly cogent and tight discussion of exactly the isues we have been discussing here this week.
CH-- saw your post on the other board. Come back, all is forgiven.
Just kidding. (Relax, Jimbo).
Only you would think the problem is that you weren\'t given enough of a chance to state your case(s). You were barred because you WOULD NOT STOP stating your case, no matter what anyone else was trying to talk about. This was true the first time I barred you, it was true when I let you post again under another name, it was true when I warned you to knock it off or you would get barred again.
Nice posts today on the Rag board, but you win the Chutzpah award.
What is the world coming to? Citi\'s stock at $1, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers out of business, now JB is posting compliments to Class.
Can an engraved invitation to Chuckles the clown to rejoin be far off?
It is an interesting post by Class on the Rags board. And the fact that Len took the time to write a detailed response signals that this is an issue he is uncomfortable with as well. His MO on his board is to post as if his words came down on tablets from Mt. Sinai, And he always posts with 100% conviction and certainty.
Interesting that Class touches on the mini-thesis posted here by JB the other day. That horses get some kind of conditioning edge from training and racing on the synthetics that allows the \"huge jump up\" first time dirt. I can buy that. But why that \"conditioning edge\" would then lead the horses to tank forever after that, makes much less sense to me.
Jimbo-- I wouldn\'t be holding my breath waiting for the second coming (actually third) of CTC.
Yeah, I had been thinking about that training angle also the last couple of days. Horses training at Hollywood definitely are less likely to run well at SA.
I\'m waiting for people to list some more of the explosions, then I\'ll post sheets for them. It\'s pretty remarkable.
Believe it not, the person who first pointed out to me the issue that training on the synthetics produced fitness was, of all people, Bianconne. I had posted that whole concept on the board this time last year if anyone remembers. Turns out the snake man was onto something.
Dickinson been doing it for years.......
NC Tony
Jerry, one example is Monterey Jazz, entered today in the feature at SA. I\'m referring to his race at Lone Star last April.
I believe Montery Jazz is the type of speed horse CH was referring to in one of his bullet points. He ran his huge new top at LS on dirt after showing extreme speed and one good figure running on synthetic in long routes. So by his theory double improvement was likely. Part would be due to the the so called figure compression issue and part from the running style disadvantage on synthetic. He ran poorly in NY on dirt coming off a layoff related to some physical issues, but has since returned to turf and synthetic. This horse might be a very good test case. I would love to see what this horse would do if he caught another weak field at one mile on real dirt.
I\'ve got Monterey Jazz, Heatseeker, Gayego, Black Seventeen, Arson Squad and Tough Tiz\'s Sis as horses who jumped way forward coming off synthetic. I\'m looking for othetrs, whether they have collapsed afterward or not.
I\'m not convinced that training on all synthetics gets them fitter. Bruno De Julia has been pushing this fitness angle for at least a year now, and from observation I don\'t think it applies to Hollywood. I do think it applies to SA and DMR. Don\'t know about Kee, AP etc.
Cart-- I think you are too quick to give this horse a pass for the NYRA Mile, where he was favored, and ran almost 9 points off his top. (And nobody was saying my Cal figures were off). I don\'t think they would have shipped him cross country to run in a GI if they did not think he was okay.
But yeah, it\'s possible at some point he\'ll come around again.
I bet against him in that race, but at the time I recall he was working extremely well. I could see someone making the case that he should have run a lot better than that. I don\'t understand what the connections are doing with him now. I would be looking for a soft stakes spot on dirt at 8 or 8 1/2 furlongs. Maybe he has bad feet.
How about Peace Chant that ran on dirt 2.14.09 at Tup?
Unsure what he got in that dirt race as he has not run back.
JB, there was a colt who won on Oaks day last year in one of the stakes that was coming from synthetic to first time dirt that stepped up huge to win. I can\'t remember the horses name off the top of my head but he should fit into the list.
I remember the event well because I thought it was yet another reason to pound Col John in the Derby the next day as I expected a similar kind of move forward from him on the syn to dirt move. In case anyone doesn\'t remember, that didn\'t work out that well for me.....
Don\'t remember the other 3yos name, but CJ is another example of one not jumping on dirt.
Don\'t have her record handy, but I\'d guess MARYFIELD took advantage of the theory a number of times in her huge West to East performances at Saratoga, Monmouth and Churchill...
Attached is the TG Sheet
So what is the definition of jump up or explosion we are using? I\'m guessing that it is any horse that moves forward in their first or second start on traditional dirt at least 2 points from a prior top, after having made at least 2 of their last 3 starts on synthetics.
Giant Gizmo??
Can you also include Intangaroo on the list after her performance in the Humana Distaff last year?
Giant Gizmo is exactly who it was. Great memory, thanks. It was driving me crazy.
Here are those sheets.
Idiot Proof made a had a few big jumps going from poly to dirt.
Jimbo:
Given some of the discussion on this thread and your investment in I Want
Revenge, what would you think if Mullins changed course and brought ITW to
Keeneland for the Blue Grass?
Less shipping/less wear and tear on the animal racing on synthetic?
Richie,
Interesting point and it is funny you ask it, because I just had the same discussion with a good friend and my old man, each of whom also has about 10% of the pool on I WAnt Revenge.
I wouldn\'t mind seeing him race at Keenland on the poly, have an OK or slightly off race, similar to STreet Sense in his last prep, then move back to the dirt in the DErby. As you say, less wear and tear on the poly,
The problem with the Wood race is that I really have no idea how I want him to run in the race. A pair up, which most would say is extremely unlikely, might be no good in that it would be two huge races in a row and make a bounce in the Derby likely. A 2 or 3 point regression might seem OK at first glance, but then he is sittign on 0-2-x or 0-3-x and the big bounce comes in the Derby. If he bounces to the moon in the Wood, he might not make the derby and even if he does, it will make him look like the other \"one and done\' dirt move ups.
So, not sure what to hope for, other than a starting slot in the derby file and a healthy horse at long odds.
Idiot Proof - attached
Jimbo-- you have stated exactly one of the reasons I like him better for the Wood than the Derby. Another has to do with certain testing procedures in California, and Kentucky (supposedly, we\'ll see).
Jim,
I remember last year you loved Tale of Ekati. So did I. Have you seen Hello Broadway\'s sheet? Isn\'t it a carbon copy of ToE\'s?
\"A pair up, which most would say is extremely unlikely, might be no good in that it would be two huge races in a row and make a bounce in the Derby likely. A 2 or 3 point regression might seem OK at first glance, but then he is sitting on 0-2-x or 0-3-x and the big bounce comes in the Derby\"
Hi Jim,
The 0-2-x etc is a very tough read pre Derby(see Smarty Jones).Horses rarely win the derby off a poor effort going in.On pre derby big fig occasions, like with IWR,you can bet that Mullins is going to try to get this horse to the Wood cranked about 85-90 %. Unless IWR is a freak, I would wish for a nice effort and not get too caught up in what may appear to be an impending 0-2-x pattern.No doubt in some instances that pattern can be really predictive.With the pro ride/synth/poly to dirt in play, I believe all patterns are somewhat less predictive. Good Luck!
Mike
going back just a bit further, Hello Broadway\'s sheet is a carbon copy of Nobiz Like Showbiz
I doubt it will happen but it would be great if Hello Broadway somehow wins today with another 4 and takes a bunch of action in the Derby with those slow figs.
Hello Broadway could be a nice later 3 year old/older horse just like Nobiz was but he\'s not a Derby horse.
Halo,
The sheets are carbon copies, but the story is different.
Tale of Ekati jumped up in the wood, ran a decent race in the derby and gave value to some of the superfecta players. There is an old thread somewhere on the board where Miff and I argued about TAle of Ekati, where he had labeled him a slow rat. Tale of Ekati, as evidenced by his wins in the Jerome and Cigar Mile wasn\'t slow. Combined with the Wood, that makes either 2 or 3 grade one wins (not sure about the Jerome\'s grade). Tale of Ekati appeared to be a \"slow rat\" with a \"stagnant pattern\" because he had distance limitations. Once he was pushed back to the 1 mile distance in the fall he suddenly \"developed\".
I would argue that Hello Broadway\'s first race this year is not enough evidence to suggest a stagnant pattern and no development. He was caught down inside in the 7 furlong race, in a speed duel, which is not his forte, was passed, then came back again late in the race. He will move forward today. He doesn\'t have the distance challenged pedigree that Tale of Ekati did.
I will put a disclaimer on the analysis though, as I do have a futures bet on Hello Broadway. I dutched him and I Want Revenge in derby futures pool 1.
Good luck.