Re your comment about our synthetic figures-- I\'m pretty sure the contest Roger won at Santa Anita a week ago had a few races contested over a synthetic track. In fact, I\'m pretty sure the one he won at Hollywood last year did too.
How are your guys doing in contests, over any surface?
Looks like we have a couple guys that were dismissed from this site stirring things up across the street.
Clown, aka Cube over there, was just admonished by Len and has had multiple posts taken down there too.
Classhandicapper is apparently the Limbaugh, also known as the defacto head, of the other board.
Same stuff about poor numbers, difficulties with synthetics, blah blah. Yawn.
Most people using THOROGRAPH have been pretty satisfied. I know that THOROGRAPH made me a ton of money this weekend. I\'m sure Roger used THOROGRAPH to help him win tournaments.
P-Dub:
You have to be careful. With the political shifts we are currently undergoing
in the U.S., those left leaning East Village rascals will find themselves right
at home handicapping \"under the TARP\". The Rag boys greatest day ever may have
been the day Stalingrad and Leningrad combined for a juicy NYRA exacta.
I will kind of miss the Clown making a buffoon of himself at Derby time, as he
always manages to do, and Class never made a point which he didn\'t see fit to
repeat a few thousand times. That being said, I am glad the Thoropope has
decided to keep those two exc(lown)municated and exc(lass)municated,
respectively.
I personally enjoyed the Clown\'s antics, but at Derby/BC time its best to let
the horses, trainers and jockeys enjoy the spotlight. To Chuckles, it was
always the KentuckME Derby.
CTC-- \"big hat, no cattle\".
I wouldn\'t say this is exactly a ringing endorsement for I Want Revenge or THORO synthetic figures.
"A lot of horses will make a big jump from synthetic to dirt, but he has to improve 10 lengths to beat Mr. Fantasy," Brown said. "When they do make a big jump, lots of times they'll do nothing at all after that because it takes so much out of them. That's the problem dealing with synthetic horses. You're playing a guessing game."
Whoa there. Assuming that is a quote from the Bloodhorse piece, WHICH I DID NOT WRITE, let\'s put it in context. We were having a conversation, and my comments were about the phenomenon we have been discussing here-- that horses coming off certain synthetics to OTHER surfaces are unpredictable. I think you would agree the same thing applies when using dirt figures for horses that are first time grass, and vice versa.
Once I figured out that Pro-Ride is more like grass than dirt (or Cushion), handicapping SA has not been that tough. Unfortunately, there was not enough data to work with before the BC to figure that out. There will be plenty going into the next one.
By the way, interesting comments in the Daily News by Mullins about how IWR didn\'t handle the Pro-Ride.
Richie-- seriously, get some writing samples together, send them to the Register, tell them you will write an occasional column for them (loosely centered on racing and Living Room Downs), for free. Getting published is the key to getting published, as Yogi would say.
I have to say, I am generally confused on the uproar over the synth-surface figures. It would seem anyone raising a stink over this has forgotten one of the major tennents of figure evaluation for both sets of data, something that goes back to Len\'s book unless I\'m mistaken.
People who use these figures (if you understand how to use them) have widely accepted for years that the figures run 2-3 points slower on turf than they do on dirt. This has always been the case, no? How is it that people understand that concept, yet can\'t apply it to a figure difference between dirt and poly or pro-ride?
Jerry said it himself, all you have to do is treat pro-ride like it\'s turf and you have your answer. IWR had a 6 going in, adjust that to a 3 or 4 and evaluate if he\'s likely to take to the dirt. Yes? OK, now factor in he\'s a 3 year old. Is it that unexpected if he improved 3 points to a zero? I certainly wouldn\'t (and didn\'t) take 3-1 on making a move like that, but in that context it is hardly something highly unusual.
MrF regressed slightly in his second start, not a huge leap to expect him to move backward off that 0 in the race a bit. In hindsight, the race makes perfect sense to me (pace or no pace) so I don\'t get what all the hub-bub is about.
Jerry,
You said somewhere we need to deduct three points from synthetic figures to get dirt figures? Or deduct three from turf to get dirt, for that matter?
I missed that.
Jimbo-- No. It is true that the best turf horses run a few points slower than the best dirt horses, and that turf horses run in a tighter range. You were involved in most if not all the discussions on this subject.
It is also true that horses running on all the synthetics other than Cushion fit the figure profile of turf horses in those two regards.
But here\'s something interesting to look at and think about. Check out the synth line in the sire profiles. For almost all sires with a decent sampling, the TGI is as fast or faster than the other two categories. Which means while the top horses are not running as big figures, the average top is better on synth.
Now, for the older sires that could be slightly a function of horses getting faster (or figures getting faster for those who don\'t believe that). But still, it\'s pretty remarkable, especially considering the difference at the top end.
Go figure.