So, I was looking back through the ROTW archives yesterday and I stumbled upon the very interesting analysis that TG posted regarding the sheet dynamics for horses that have run 1 negative or better before July of their 3 year old year. For anyone who hasn\'t seen it, it\'s really fascinating. I remember looking at it last year but I had forgotten how dramatic the results were (somewhat small sample size notwithstanding).
Anyway, the bottom-line is that the study shows that, between 2000 and 2007, there are only 4 horses who paired up their figure in the race after a 1 negative or better before July of their 3 year old year. I guess Big Brown would have been the 5th in the Fla and Kentucy Derby last year so let\'s make that 5 horses in total. The 5 were Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Songster and Egg Head. The study goes on to further prove that horses that come back from these big efforts within 30 days are even more likely to bounce badly.
Why is this relevant to the Gotham? Well, Mr. Fantasy ran a .5 negative in his first race and then came back to pair it up with a 0 in his second race. Now, I know the study looked at 1 negative as the cutoff and we are talking .5 negative for Mr. Fantasy so it\'s not exactly apples to apples but I think it\'s close enough to make an important point.
Is Mr. Fantasy a freak? That\'s a pretty salty group that was able to accomplish that feat.
Now, it\'s worth nothing that the cumulative effect of those big efforts is going to have an impact on the horse at some point just as it did with Brownie in the Preakness and Belmont and Smarty in the Belmont, etc and I also don\'t think Mr, Fantasy really wants 1 1/4 based on the EDubai on the top side so I don\'t think we are talking about a Derby winner but for the purposes of Sat, we may be looking at a freak.
He will be a terrible bet on Saturday (I prediect he goes off 6-5) as he will get hammered down with all of the West Point money but he could be something special based on how he handled that huge first figure on such short rest.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49494/the-fastest-horse-in-the-gothamby-far
Nice piece.
the funny post mortem to all of this is that these guys begged me to take a piece of this horse with them this summer. They kept telling me that he was going to be a freak but I laughed at them for paying $280k for a NY Bred by E Dubai.
I am such a moron.
Cove the only thing worse was you then put the money in the market.
Nice Summary TGJB. There are a lot of exciting 3YO out there as we hit March Madness which really began last Sat on Feb 28th
Shug\'s horse and the California Shipper have had no time to acclimate, so i\'m tossing.
Cov,
With the presence of Haynesfield and Imperial Council, I don\'t know about 6/5. Very interesting to me that I Want Revenge never ran better than a TG 6 in Cali despite being a nose and then 1 1/2 lengths off Pioneer of the Nile. Where have I seen a slow fig Cali runner before??
Did not see all the sources yet but Mr. Fantasy (visually impressive both times) is not as fast on other data. Beyer,adjusted, has him at 2 and then 3 in his first two starts and only slightly faster than a few in there.
If Mr.Fantasy regresses, it may also be due to the fact that he will not be beating up on the Sisters Of The Poor on Saturday. Good Luck!
Mike
Temps look to be upper 50\'s to lower 60\'s, I don\'t think it\'s as much of an issue like last weekend. Heck these temps might just perk em up a bit.
Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Temps look to be upper 50\'s to lower 60\'s, I don\'t
> think it\'s as much of an issue like last weekend.
> Heck these temps might just perk em up a bit.
Thanks,
Just noticed the weather report myself..
Miff
I also found IWR interesting and disheartening at M/L 3-1.Tell me,do you think
it\'s reasonable and or valueable to consider IWR\'s 6\'s as possible 4\'s with the
poly-turf to dirt transition?
mjs
Will be interesting to see how they bet the top five morning line horses.
Might take a shot with Russell Road 20-1 ML keyed underneath Mr Fantasy.
Iron,
Figs aside, the race shape/ship/first dirt is not the best for him.His figs are app equal to all others in the race except for Mr. Fantasy who is faster(a point or so) on all other reliable data.Good Luck
Mike
I like both of TAP\'s horses. Check out the trainers of the 3 horses behind Naos in his Pha race; not the usual Pha trainers. Also I think Imperial Council is going to step up big, and I have to use IWR somewhere although I\'m not crazy about him.
In a race filled with early speed I like Masala as the best closer. His figs are about good as the rest with great potential to improve, at a price to boot.
Also like him in an Exacta box with Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council.
Good luck all,
Bob
Apparently the jockeys can read the Form too and IWR was the only one to challenge MF for the early lead and they got away with a very easy pace. IC did well to close strongly from well off the slow pace but was no threat to the winner.
Bob
So either IWR got a huge new top or the entire field bounced pretty bad.
MF balked at the first load and was a little washy. The Connections sounded confident, TGJB sounded confident but it is horse racing and the guys here can\'t be right every week. Can they?
The Day IWR ran, last time out, was a controversial day in my opinion. I jsut think the Beyers assigned were way too slow.
Matto Mondo runs back today so does Cowboy Cal and Stardom Bound. They are all at the same place so everything is relative.
But when they ship East we results like this today and the answer always is, \"Horses move up when going from Synthetic to Dirt\"
Maybe they just ran the same race they always do......
He will get the \"huge new top\" on TG, but this is becoming almost passe. \"Slow california shipper with slow synthetic figs comes east and runs a new top. I am not saying it was easy to take 3-1 on I Want Revenge, but I would have taken 1 to 5 that the \"6\'s\" were going to look \"wrong\" after this race. There is just no way to relate those synthetic figures to dirt.
He got a much better trip than one would have expected based on the race shape,and the naysayers will say the fractions were slow on a day that seemed to favor speed at a quick glance. But I think he is legit, although I will admit a bias as I have about 10% of the Derby futures pool on him, at 55-1.
Last point. I would not assume this moves up Pioneer of the Nile. As opposed to I Want Revenge who has dirt breeding and a dirt stride (I am told), Pioneer of the Nile seems to be a turf/synthetic horse and I would not look for the same \"move up\" when he runs on the dirt.
IWR\'s dam\'s sire has 125+ stakes winners to his credit.The slightly watered
down API topside doesn\'t hurt either.
mjs
Yes but the real question will be if Jerry will admit he is wrong on the \"6\" for him. Or will he do a cursory review and claim that the data is \"solid\".
Remember as Jerry often says, you get one number wrong and then you compound the mistake over and over, SHADES OF BORREGO!
Jimbo your best post ever.
High Roller it was a new top. Einstein ran much slower I am hearing. Maybe 2 points and 6-8 on a Beyer Scale.
Regardless of the modest pace, IWR separated from the field running the last 5/16ths in app 30 seconds, the sign of a special horse.Question now is does he have the resiliency to sustain/improve on that type of performance in his next two starts.
His top will look ridiculous but he may have been several points faster going in. Nevertheless, that was the best dirt 2 turn derby prep so far.
Monster Prelim Beyer 113, app neg -3 TG if they agree.
Mike
To me, this is different than the occasional figure where JB will be monitoring a figure he made where it \"could have gone a different way\". He has commented here before on how he will go back and look at some of the less solid days as horses come back to race in their next starts. This seems to be a scale issue.
Look at the Beyer fig for Mr. Fantasy\'s last start compared to I Want Revenge\'s last start. A 93 for Mr. F. vs a 92 for I Want Revenge. On TG they were a 0 and a 6. So, you figure maybe the difference on TG is due to ground loss. Wrong, actually the ground loss makes the figures FURTHER APART. Mr. F was 1w/3w his last race, while IWR was 3w/3w. That means the six points more like seven points difference. Does anybody really believe that Mr. Fantasy last race was 7 points faster than I want Revenge? Considering Mr. F. went off at 2-1 and I Want Revenge went off at 5-2/3-1, not many people did believe that.
I have no doubts that I am using the best data available (TG)O when I am handicapping a dirt track where the horses are mostly dirt horses, or handicapping a turf race where the horses have previous turf figures, but we are seeing too many of these synthetic to dirt \"WTF figures\" to feel confident about how to use them and how to adjust your handicapping.
"We were second-best, even though we didn't get second," McLaughlin said. "If (I Want Revenge) doesn't ship east, we win by five."
Kiaran, if Mr F can\'t hold off a closer for 2nd after setting :23.3 and :48.2 fractions over the inner-tube, you either need to do your job better, or you need get the colt back in NY bred races. Shugs\'s colt just ran by your charge like he was running backwards. Taqarub also stopped like he was shot. Both of these colts are bred to get at least 1m or 1 1/16.
Now stop making excuses Kiaran, and get both of these colts back on track.
I do not think it is just the synthetics. TG California figures have always ran slower as has been discussed and rebuffed before. The addition of synthetics in California may have just exacerbated it.
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,24349,24349#msg-24349
"We were second-best, even though we didn't get second," McLaughlin said. "If (I Want Revenge) doesn't ship east, we win by five."
I\'ve always respected McLaughlin as a horseman but this remark is just stupid. He must think that 2 horses who happen to be running near each other are \"dueling\", no matter how slow they\'re going. Nonsense.
Bob
Jimbo-- I agree about Pioneer. He already ran on a dirt-like track (Cushion at Hollywood) and did not run that well.
Off the top of my head I can come up with Monterey Jazz, Black Seventeen, and the Baffert filly that won the Beldame as horses who ran huge and got a huge top on our figures going synth to dirt, but I know there are others-- I would appreciate hearing of any others that anybody remembers, I\'ll post the sheets. If the figures were wrong-- meaning that those horses were not really running a big new top-- it seems likely that many of them would run back to that figure again, at least on dirt if not synth. But most (and maybe all) have not. Most have immediately fallen apart, and either not run again or not run any good again. Which lends credence to the idea that these are actually huge jump-up performances.
Anybody want to bet me I Want Revenge doesn\'t finish in the top half of the field in the Derby? If he doesn\'t make it to the gate I win.
Where do Heatseeker (Oaklawn Cap) or Gayego (Ark Derby) and Arson Squad (Meadowlands Cup) fit into there?
Or was the latter first time Dutrow.
JB,
I\'ll take the bet on I Want Revenge. You name the stake.
JB,
You are completely dismissing the possibility that the CALI tops may not be as severe as your data has indicated. Maybe, just maybe, you have the Cali circuit too slow going in. Beyer and Rags did not have any of the horses you mentioned (and this one) as slow, scale to scale, going in.How come?
You had Russell Road much faster than IWR going in.He was off at 20-1 and got beat a pole.
Giant Ryan OFF AT 80-1 was only marginally slower than IWR going in, dead last, beaten off(one race fig sprint admittedly)
The point is that these huge new \"tops\" do not reconcile overall and lack common racing sense.Do you see any other possiblity for this?
Mike
Miff-- just addressing the initial comment, read my post again. It\'s directed at that exact point. If it was not a huge top, as you suggest is possible, horses would be likely to run back to run back to that figure, if only on dirt.
Jimbo-- a drink at Siro\'s, assuming it is still open (they\'re trying to sell it). You can even get one with the umbrellas and stuff.
I don\'t think KFs comment is far off base. Despite \'rating\' while head and head, there was a point when the two horses were asked for their best. Once the winner sprinted away, its really hard for that \'dueled\' horse to hold 2nd. He got beat a lip for the place spot. I don\'t agree that he wins by five, but he wins if IWR isn\'t in the race. As far as sour grapes goes, he does concede that the winner was best, a lot of trainers won\'t even do that, props for a trainer who actually admitted in public that he wasn\'t best.
As I have said before, if the scale is off, there is also then the issue of the horses going East-West, not just the other way. In the big Cap alone, Cowboy Cal and Monba had already run figures as good or better out there than in the east, and Einstein, despite coming off a pair of big efforts, ran pretty well out there yesterday.
How about this interpretation? The \"low\" Ca figs are actually \"big number\" efforts for the horse that don\'t show up because he\'s struggling with the surface( this might be especially true for horses that run on the pace). Then when he runs the big \"jump up\" fig on diet, he doesn\'t run back to it, because it may have been the 3rd or 4th big effort in a row, the first 3 or 4 not being evident because they are disguised by the low numbers on the syn tracks, and he\'s essentially shot his wad and never comes back to that form.
JB,
It does go both ways, not \"east to west\" and \"west to east\", but rather dirt to synthetic and synthetic to dirt. I won\'t drudge up the post BC thread, but I think I started that thread. Many of the fast dirt horses got trounced by \"synthetic horses\" with seemingly inferior figures. Ventura dusting Indian Blessing, Zenyatta dusting many faster dirt fillies and Stardom Bound beating many with faster dirt figures, all come to mind right away.
Not sure about your Einstein, Cowboy Cal and Monba points. Monba got his east coast figure on synthetics, Einstein and Cowboy Cal have more turf/sythetic figures than dirt figures. (Einstein does have some dirt figures, but the fast ones seem to be Churchill).
Jimbo-- Einstein ran his tops on dirt at CD and GP, Cowboy ran 1 point off his top at CD, which nobody I know has suggested is similar to turf or synthetic. My point is that in fact it is a surface question, not an East West one, as Miff and others have suggested. From that point it becomes a question of whether it is about scale, or because the synthetics (specifically Pro-ride and Poly) are different surfaces, and dirt horses just don\'t run over them. The explosion-disappear phenomenon and horses running just fine going west suggest it\'s not the scale.
My own theory is that for whatever reason, running and training over that stuff acts as a conditioner (there are those who believe that happens over dead rails). When horses that like dirt get off it they explode, and ruin themselves.
The impression that I Want Revenge accelerated and "sprinted away" from Mr. Fantasy in the stretch is really an illusion caused by the difference in the 2 horses relative speeds. What really happened was that IWR was simply able to continue at his same even pace and MF was just unable to keep up. This can be verified by the fractions for the race.
Both horses actually had a dream trip – being able to take an easy lead while setting a slow even pace. IWR was simply in better shape to take advantage of it.
I believe that the popular notion that horses tire on a slow pace simply because another horse happens to be near them is contradicted by the principles of exercise physiology. Horses can indeed put pressure on their rivals and that is with speed. If the pace is slow it's like saying a boxer was knocked out by a weak slow punch.
As I said, I've always had a lot of respect for McLaughlin but his statement is not only inaccurate but to attribute MF's poor performance to the presence of a horse that he was just unable to keep up with actually does a disservice to the horse and makes him sound like a quitter. I guess one could say that without IWR in the race he might have turned the early pace into a super slow crawl instead of just a slow pace and made it impossible for Imperial Council to catch him, but almost any horse could win under such extremely favorable circumstances. That\'s damning the horse with faint praise. He was simply beaten by 2 better horses on the day.
Bob
JB,
Don\'t know what others are inferring, but BEFORE they changed over to synths in Cali,I questioned the figs of many \"slow\" TG Cali runners that came East and outran their previous TG figs.
Your argument is also contradicted by the fact both Rags and Beyer, converted to TG,have many Cali runners faster than TG.It\'s not just a surface thing. You may want to spend just a few minutes to take a look at what is being said here.
Mike
Miff-- I haven\'t just looked at this in terms of what is said here, I\'ve looked at a whole lot of sheets specifically in the terms discussed here.
Andy and Len used claiming pars for a long time after I stopped (they both have stopped now as well). Pars will cause figure inflation at tracks with a high claiming scale (for example, a 15k claimer at a small track has some of the best horses on the grounds, a similar race at SA has a 6 horse field of mostly Cal breds, and they are some of the worst horses on the grounds. The best horses at a major track are much better than the best ones at a minor track, but the bad ones are generally just bad at both-- the differential is much less, though the claiming prices are much different. This is why for years we-- and Friedman-- were able to pull 15 claimers out of Maryland and win races in NY for 30k).
Again--
1-- I have bought many horses in the east based on their numbers and sent them west. Several of these have ben older horses that didn\'t figure to develop much (if any) more. Some of them were Even The Score, Super Frolic, and Student Council. All earned at least the same figures in California-- in fact ETS ran a new top out there. If the scale was off, they would figure to have not received as good TG numbers out there, and not to have accomplished as much as they did.
I know that Beyer had SC and SF \"jumping up\" when they got to California. Don\'t know how Len treated them. I would be interested in seeing.
2-- If it was simply a question of scale, it would mean those horses that I had jumping up coming east (and switching surfaces) weren\'t really jumping up. If that were true, they would have no reason to fall apart afterward-- they would at least run back to their tops when they ran on DIRT again. I would like to get a more complete list before posting the sheets, but when I do you will see that the only one tht you could say MIGHT have behaved that way is Arson Squad, and that one is complicated for a number of reasons, one of which you mentioned. Jimbo will lose his bet-- I\'m stealing.
3-- You have had a problem with the FL figures for some time. We have reviewed those several times, wrote some computer programs to do some research, and finally adjusted them, as you might have noticed. We are in the process of running similar studies for all circuits. We did so much work checking the European figures you wouldn\'t believe it-- even after my dialogue with Jimbo. We eventually took 1/2 point off some figures-- there was no justification for taking off more than that.
The point is we do take this stuff very seriously. I spend a lot of time thinking about it and looking at the sheets of the horses in question.
JB,
Thanks for your reply.I understand the par thing et al and Finger Lakes seems to make better sense lately.
Good to know that things are reviewed from time to time.I look at tons of figs and races. Occasionally,the figs are tough to swallow when evaluatiing and converting them for comparative purposes. Incidentally, I have never questioned a TG fig unless I\'ve done the day myself and seen the entire card.
Mike
imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t think KFs comment is far off base. Despite
> \'rating\' while head and head, there was a point
> when the two horses were asked for their best.
> Once the winner sprinted away, its really hard for
> that \'dueled\' horse to hold 2nd. He got beat a lip
> for the place spot. I don\'t agree that he wins by
> five, but he wins if IWR isn\'t in the race. As far
> as sour grapes goes, he does concede that the
> winner was best, a lot of trainers won\'t even do
> that, props for a trainer who actually admitted in
> public that he wasn\'t best.
Mr F set an average pace over a strip that is generally kind to speed, yet still managed to get reeled in by a horse running against the grain. He wasn\'t 2nd best yesterday, and wasn\'t going to win by 5 if IWR wasn\'t entered.
Kiaran\'s comments were way off base.
The guy is an exceptional trainer however, and he will learn from the Taqarub and Mr F defeats. I expect better from both horses down the road.
I\'m with Jerry on I Want Revenge. The only 2 nice races were with very soft paces. The 3 races that had near par pace, he hung all the way home. Not a good pace scenario for IWR if he makes it to Churchill.
By the way, Mr. Fantasy ran 2-1-09 at 1 and 1/16th at 1:45.1.
Mr. Fantasy ran Saturday 1 and 1/16th at 1:44.1
IWR ran 3 races at 1/16th in Cal and ran 1:42.2, 1:41.4, 1:42.1.
Why would anyone be surprised that he would drill Mr. Fantasy all day long?
A Cal shipper with some tactical speed moving into a race with a soft pace?
Smalltimer,
You are way off base with your post race analysis on I Want Revenge. If you think that race was about \"soft paces\" you are on the wrong topic, on the wrong board. (and you are nowhere Jerry on your view, read his posts again).
\"his only two good races were with soft paces. He doesn\'t have two good races. He has one HUGE race, on dirt. His synthetic races were all the same, give or take, regardless of any pace issues.
It is a simple choice the handicapper has to make as far as I Want Revenge goes.
Choose either
#1 - He ran a huge top first time dirt, somewhere around a 6 to 8 point top I guess. The combination of a huge new top and a negative number this early in his 3 year old season, off of the much slower earlier numbers, makes him the classic \"bounce candidate\' and he may never race that fast again, or at least not for a while. And he will be a huge bet against in his next race, as the favorite and then not even go to the Derby. (not to put words in Jerry\'s mouth, but this is what his view is, nothing to do with pace. THis is why he proposed the bet he did on the board\". The evidence of other horses with these huge tops, first time dirt, who never run back to are Black Seventeen and Monterrey Jazz.
#2 - I Want Revenge is a dirt horse, with a dirt stride, with dirt breeding, who was racing on synthetic surfaces and therefore wasn\'t racing at his best. This, conbined with an issue in the scales on TG between synthetic and dirt races, makes I Want Revenge\'s huge new top, not as big a new top. And since he is now fast enough to win the derby, will have 4 weeks into his next prep, then 4 weeks into the derby, has tactical speed, distance breeding and has been battle tested in a couple stakes races (on the snythetics), he is a very strong contender for the derby. And, oh by the way, on the numbers, he beat the best prep field so far, and he trounced them badly doing it. Bounce schmounce.
Choose your camp. But leave pace out of your equation.
TGJB,
DRF chart has IWR 3 wide 1st turn.If I may,what was his path for turn 2?
mjs
jimbo66 Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------
> #2 - I Want Revenge is a dirt horse, with a dirt
> stride, with dirt breeding, who was racing on
> synthetic surfaces and therefore wasn\'t racing at
> his best. This, conbined with an issue in the
> scales on TG between synthetic and dirt races,
> makes I Want Revenge\'s huge new top, not as big a
> new top. And since he is now fast enough to win
> the derby, will have 4 weeks into his next prep,
> then 4 weeks into the derby, has tactical speed,
> distance breeding and has been battle tested in a
> couple stakes races (on the snythetics), he is a
> very strong contender for the derby. And, oh by
> the way, on the numbers, he beat the best prep
> field so far, and he trounced them badly doing it.
> Bounce schmounce.
>
> Choose your camp. But leave pace out of your
> equation.
The best prep field on the numbers showed up in the FOY-not the Gotham.
Pace will matter in the Derby.IWR will have to be versatile enough to come from farther back and deal with traffic or wide.No way he gets the same trip as in the Gotham -sitting second in the clear on a 48 half.
No doubt IWR gets a Gotham figure good enough to win a Derby in most years,but do you want him running that fast on March 7th?
\"By the way, Mr. Fantasy ran 2-1-09 at 1 and 1/16th at 1:45.1.
Mr. Fantasy ran Saturday 1 and 1/16th at 1:44.1
IWR ran 3 races at 1/16th in Cal and ran 1:42.2, 1:41.4, 1:42.1.
Why would anyone be surprised that he would drill Mr. Fantasy all day long?
A Cal shipper with some tactical speed moving into a race with a soft pace?\"
Small,
You are using raw times to compare MF and IWR. If your observation is valid(re raw times) the fig guys would be out of business.
Clearly,Mr.Fantasy was a faster horse than IWR, going in, on all data.Maybe I missed your point, but it seemed that you felt IWR was faster than MF going in.I was clearly surprised that IWR ran off from that field in a powerful overall performance. He had not shown pure ability close to that before.
Lastly, given that there were 4 horse s inside with faster positional speed than IWR, I would have bet that he would not get that trip, i.e lay second in the stalk position.
Nice pick, I knew he had a shot, but felt there were several things against him and no value at 3-1.It\'s good that IWR is staying in NY to train up to the Wood. His next race should be interesting.
Mike
Big,
Not sure I agree with you on FOY vs Gotham. Any horses with paired up 0\'s in the FOY? Plus, the FOY was a 1-turn mile. I am not saying Quality Road won\'t get 2 turns or 1 1/4 but the fact is that a 1 turn mile is really a sprint, not a route race.
I am OK with I Want Revenge running that fast on March 7th. I have him at 55-1, and at that price, I want a horse that is fast enough to win the derby, in the starting gate. Ideally, would I have had Talamo stop hitting the horse in the stretch and hand ride him to a 3 or 4 length win, instead of hitting him and opening up on the field, in what will assuredly be a race figure that wins most derbies. Of course.
We will see about how I WAnt Revenge does in the Wood and then hopefully the Derby. AS for our host\'s comments about him not finishing in the top half of the field (and implying he might not even make the field), I am certainly concerned that an expert in this field is so dowon on the horse. However, I am emboldened a bit, when I recall last year\'s comments from JB about this time. Something along the lines of \"War Pass being easily the most likely winner of the DErby and Big Brown 50% at best, to even appear in the race..........
We had IWR 3-2/2.
Jimbo-- I think IWR has a better chance of running 1-2-3 in the Wood than in the top ten in the Derby fora couple of reasons, one of which has to do with certain rules at CD, but that\'s another story.
Regardless, there is nothing wrong with 55-1 on a horse that hs already run fast enough around 2 turns to win the race.
Mike: According to yesterday\'s DRF, Mullins had to ship IWR back to California due to some licensing issue regarding his help.
Caradoc,
Thanks, that\'s surprising as many are illegal aliens anyway. Fake SS cards cheap too.The back and forth ship is obviously not good.
Mike
jimbo,
This will be kind of a mixed reply.
There is a way to relate those synthetic figures to dirt...
IWR got EXACTLY the kind of trip that was expected. Slow fractions. The only 2 times this horse has been close was due to slow fractions, the 10-29 HOL race and the Gotham. When they\'re running 5 to 10 lengths slower than par, this horse is gonna hang around in close attendance. That\'s not gonna be the case at Churchill.
My \"agreement\" with Jerry\'s point. JB dislikes this horse because he feels he will not run back well or just fall apart (paraphrasing). Absolutely legit reasoning. My \"agreement\" with Jerry is based on a different premise. That being, this horse will not be in close attendance if he makes the Derby, and the races that have been quicker up front, this horse has hung the entire distance after the first mile.
To this horse\'s benefit: He appears to be improving, the addition of blinkers 2 races back have seemed to help, plus, he ran in NY without bute, which is a good indicator that he doesn\'t need that to run well, which is not always the case with the West Coast horses shipping into Churchill.
I hope he makes the Derby and runs well for you, but, he\'ll have to beat me.
Mark Casse has a theory that horses with turf pedigrees run better on the dirt at Churchill than on other dirt tracks. I\'m not sure how much evidence he bases it on (he did set a spring meet record for victories there in \'88), but here\'s what he said last spring before the Derby:
\"A lot of racetracks when the horses\'s foot goes in the dirt, it goes in really deep. A lot of horses, especially a turf horse, get a lot of slippage. They lose traction. At Churchill, there isn\'t as much depth to the surface, at least in the spring.\"
Pletcher\'s take, at the same time last spring:
\"I think Churchill is a surface that turf horses sometimes do well on the dirt, more so than a lot of other tracks.\"
jimbo,
First of all, I wasn\'t making a post race analysis. I knew going in that IWR would drill Mr. Fantasy. Like it or not, it was based upon pace. I know pace is not welcome on this board, but, to dismiss an expected pace in that particular race, is just plain silly.
I hate to dispute your expertise, but IWR has \"tactical\" speed when they\'re crawling on the front end.
I have to respectfully reject your suggestion that I pick a camp. If I need you to tell me what I\'m supposed to think, I\'ll ask you, okay? You work with your opinions and experience and I\'ll do likewise.
Jimbo, there\'s more than one way to get it done in this sport.
No disrespect intended jimbo.
Good luck
Mike,
Good response.
No, I don\'t use raw times. I\'ve played horses since 1965, so I\'ve moved a bit beyond using raw times.
My opinion going into the race was simple. Why would anyone not think that IWR \"could\" run the 1/16th in comparable 1:44 or less? Maybe I dealt in semantics, but I knew what I expected to happen, and in this case, it did.
The par numbers I used just showed that IWR could sit near the front on a soft pace. Nothing more, nothing less. Nothing technical, just a positive factor the horse had in his favor.
It\'s been my experience when horses ship back east or even to OP or the FG the horses that really do well, especially young horses, are in fairly close attendance. In the older horses, those that come from out of it on the West Coast do even better. There are exceptions. Contradiction? Of course, but that\'s been my experience.
I don\'t over-analyze it, I just use it as a factor just like post position, weight, workouts over the surface, etc.
Maybe its because the weather is consistently nice on the So Cal circuit and the training is more consistent, is it possible the general fields are just a bit more fit, day in and day out?
To your other point, I did NOT feel IWR was faster going in, because clearly he wasn\'t. I thought Mr. Fantasy was @ 3 lengths faster before taking into account the surfaces and the anticipated fractions.
Take care
I brought an even more refined version of this theory that was largely ignored or booed that I read on BRISnet a few years back. The theory says that horses with larger hoofs tend to take to the CD track better (which may also be true of turf as well), and they even went so far as to publish the hoof sizes of the derby horses (rated on an A to F scale).
Barbaro (A-) was the last year they published this in their free daily newsletter, and I have no idea where else someone would get data like this. But I did use the theory last year on Pyro, after being generally confused as to whether or not he should be used, I decided to use the rumors of his pin-sized deer-hoofs as the tipping point to leave him out of all wagers.
While these 2 examples certainly don\'t constitute anything close to statitistical proof, such proof would seeminly be easy to verify or deny if the data were available.
Smalltimer,
Since I feel I am engaging in another conversation with \"Class Handicapper\" and \"Fkach\" under another moniker (this time \"smalltimer\"), I am a bit concerned about continuing this, but what the heck.
If you thought IWR was a lock to beat Mr. Fantasy, based on \"pace figures\" then you definitely are on the wrong board, and you are also guilty of red-boarding. I saw pace figures for the Gotham, several sets in fact, and none of them predicted that IWR would be sitting second early in the race, right on the flank of Mr. Fantasy.
I Want Revenge has tactical speed. Tactical speed doesn\'t mean sitting 1st or 2nd, he has been much sharper early in the race since they added the blinkers. Put your pace figures down and watch the Gotham replay. Talamo drifted him out into the 4 path down the backstretch to get him off the bit as he wanted the lead right out of the gate and wanted to go at Mr Fantasy throughout the first mile. He has more then enough speed to sit somewhere between 6th and 10th during the first half mile of the Derby, then make a move on the far turn.
If you want to take a stance that IWR won\'t get the same trip he got in the Gotham in the Derby, that is not a revelation. There will be 18 to 20 horses in the Derby. Trips will be tougher. And BTW, on this board, a 3w/2w trip, like the one IWR got, is not the \"ideal trip\". A nice 1w/1w trip would be much much better.
But then again, whatever works for you, so be it, smalltimer (or Class handicapper, or FKach)
Wow,
You thought Mr. Fantasy was 3 lengths faster than I want revenge going into the race, but your par pace figures said that the slower I Want Revenge would get a trip near a very soft pace, that would be set by Mr. FAntasy and that made it abundantly clear that you should bet the slower horse, tracking the faster horse that would be setting the slow pace, at roughly the same price. 2-1 vs 5-2.
What a post......
Jimbo,
If you\'re concerned with continuing this, then let it go. I didn\'t make my original post to encourage your insults, and frankly, when I post on the board I\'m not addressing you as an expert anyhow. By YOUR own admission, you have no confidence in using and adjusting synthetic to dirt figures. (jimbo66 Mar 8, 11:58 a.m. post).
On your (jimbo66 March 7, 10:07 p.m. post) you write, \"Slow california shipper with slow synthetic figs comes east and runs a new top...There is just no way to relate those synthetic figures to dirt.\" So based upon YOUR admitted inability to relate those figures, you wanna dog me for actually understanding them by applying what I know is true?
Let\'s try this: IF the cal shipper figures are in fact wrong, (and they are), and they actually are 2-3 points stronger than they are given, they why is it such a stretch to think that Mr. Fantasy had a real LEGITIMATE advantage in this race? IF, the cal shipper numbers are TOO low, (and they are), then IWR sits right on the front end in a race that is s-l-o-w.....Don\'t you get it jimbo? The numbers are wrong.
On your other (jimbo66 March 8, 11:58 a.m. post) you write. \"I have no doubts I am using the best data available (TG)O when I am handicapping a dirt track where the horses are mostly dirt horses, or handicapping a turf race where the horses have previous turf figures, but we are seeing too many of these synthetic to dirt \"WTF figures\" to feel confident about how to USE them and how to ADJUST to your handicapping.\" Are you kidding me jimbo?? Read your own words, you want to dog me for the way I handicap a move from synthetic to dirt, when in fact, you have no confidence in the way you\'re doing it? Instead of questioning or minimizing the way I analyzed the race, maybe you should be taking notes, or at least consider there is another way.
Because Mr. Fantasy appears faster on paper, doesn\'t make it true when you\'re dealing with less than legitimate numbers. Geez, just read your own words about your admitted confusion with relating those figures.
And yes, the way I do it, does work for me when converting synthetic to dirt. Does your way of doing it work for you? Apparently not.
Good luck
jimbo,
That\'s a clueless response. Read my earlier post this morning.
Thanks
Smalltimer,
I want to personally thank you for solving the synthetics problem. From now on, I will just subtract three points. I love your solution. Now that you solved that simple problem, will you be moving on to the economy, peace in the middle east, and whether god exists?
I gladly accept your \"non-expert\" comment. I certainly am not one. And you don\'t need to re-post my comments on synthetics, as I stand by them. I can\'t figure out the translation to dirt, and also don\'t believe one exists.
Your comments, post-race, on I Want Revenge, don\'t make sense, but that\'s ok. In your post to Miff you mention your figs showing Mr. Fantasy 3 lengths faster than I Want Revenge, This is the post where you mention lots of raw times (which BTW don\'t matter and you let everybody on this board know that not only are you not an expert but rather a neophyte).
If, on your figures, which adjusted for the surface switch made Mr. Fantasy ONLY 3 lengths faster, it seems strange that you then say that \"pace analysis\" and the projected slow pace made it clear that I Want Revenge would \"easily beat\" Mr. Fantasy, since Mr. Fantasy figured to be on that slow pace.
But all of that doesn\'t really matter. You apparently have figured out how easy it is to translate the synthetic figures to dirt figures, add in some home-made pace analysis and easily pick the winner (all about 2 to 3 days AFTER the race happens).
Congratulations and I look forward to your next discovery.....
jimbo,
I\'m sorry if I QUOTED you and emphasized your confusion with synthetic to dirt. I\'d prefer you quote me than insert words that I never said, such as \"pace analysis\" and \"easily beat \" Mr. Fantasy. If you\'re gonna INFER I said it, then prove it by citing one of my posts. Don\'t just change my words to serve your purpose.
I\'m flattered you appreciate my advancement of understanding the synthetic to dirt dilemma. Considering I didn\'t just mail it in when artificials came around like you apparently have kinda/sorta illustrates your superior intellect and my neophyte status. To say that figuring out the synthetic to dirt transition doesn\'t exist simply insults anyone who\'s willing to take the time to accept that challenge, but more important, be willing to change. Maybe you should just try taking 3 points off and see if that improves your chances, sounds like it couldn\'t hurt.
I\'m not going to involve the others on the board and what their opinion of me is. The opinion of others doesn\'t make a difference to me, we\'re all big boys, or at least we should try to act like it. I\'m sure that JB would be more than happy if you and I just let this go and chalk it up as a difference of opinions. As far as I\'m concerned, you started off disparaging me and the only person I\'m willing to take crap from on this board is JB, or someone involved with Thoro. Even Miff shows respectable boundaries when he criticizes me. I respect him for that... even when he\'s tried to convince me (to no avail) that I\'m wrong. (laughing here).
As far as I\'m concerned, you and I should let this go. You\'re one of the main guys on this forum, and you have good insights, synthetic notwithstanding. It does a disservice to the other guys as we keep tossing negative comments back and forth. If you\'d like to swap insults, let\'s do it in some private messages, or if you\'d like, I\'ll give you my cell number and you can call and insult me personally, then we can really tell each other what we think. Fair enough? I think the room has seen enough of this back and forth business, I know I have.
My personal economic plan is currently superior to Geitner\'s. If you\'d like, I\'ll be happy to fax you a copy of my Sunday superfectas at Tampa Bay. One ticket is for a 1-2-8-11-12 superfecta box and the other is a STRAIGHT 1-2-8-11 superfecta ticket for .10 cents. Each copy paid $ 1,150.07. $ 12.10 wager and
$ 2,300.14 returned. Not a bad ROI for such a neophyte.
Have a good one, and feel free to take me up on my fax offer.....But, if you do accept my offer, I expect you to inform the room that I did send it to you in good faith.
Have a good one jimbo...now can we move on from this little spat?
I\'m not only going to be happy you knock it off, I\'m going to insist you do. Feel free to post your opinions about races in advance from now on. Do not post them or your reasoning afterward unles you have done so before the fact.
JB,
Sounds fair to me.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m not only going to be happy you knock it off,
> I\'m going to insist you do. Feel free to post your
> opinions about races in advance from now on. Do
> not post them or your reasoning afterward unless
> you have done so before the fact.
That can apply to a lot of people.
Curious that the person acting with civility was told to knock it off, while the one tossing around insults gets a pass.
I haven\'t been paying attention closely enough to know who has been civil and who has not, just enough to know the food fight is leaving stains on the walls. I believe the post I responded to stated both of them should knock it off, my \"you\" was the collective kind.
No problem JB.
It did go long enough,and was starting to get nasty. You\'ve set me straight when I\'ve deserved it and stepped in here appropriately.
miff,
If so,then that puts IC at roughly 3.5 effort. 2nd time back off a deuce
sprint and close up front.Talk about slow pace,IC went 25 2/5,50 flat,1:14
and also came home in 30.Mcgaughey sounded coyly optimistic.Tell me,do you think
it\'s possible for this horse to get a 3.5s_pace and come back with a 1,also What is a reasonable bounce for IC (counting R/T airfare and all)?
mjs
Meant the bounce for IWR.
Iron,
Predicting a bounce and by how much is very tough.Horses bounce and still win, that\'s my bottom line. Who wins is all that matters to me.
Horses react negatively from their previous effort/efforts for many reasons.One possibility is certainly the horses inability to quickly recover from the exertion of the prior big race/races.Then there other reasons which have nothing to do with prior exertion.Assuming his last was negative -2/3,statistical history says he\'s cooked. I don\'t see unfiltered statistics as being a predictor of the future.
In the case of IWR, I think they will train him very lightly for the Wood looking for a nice effort but not a duplicate one.He has already shown the ability to win the Derby with his last effort. Measuring just how extreme his forward move was is complicated by those slow 6\'s out in Cali.I believe he will go back in the Wood but hope it\'s not an X. That would make him an automatic toss in the Derby at any price imo.Should he regress a couple of points and run fairly well, I would consider him a legit danger in the Derby if he trains up well and draws a reasonable spot.
Understanding that the Wood is not his primary goal,I would have to bet against him in that spot.Resiliency is not something found in a number on a piece of paper, that is found on the racetrack. His next start should tell the story as to his possible derby prospects.Good Luck!
Mike
Has anyone published the figure for Quality Road in the FOY?
I thought he ran a better race than IWR. He fought off a series of better speed horses early and then easily held off a bunch of better closers. I know the race looked fast. If he runs in the Wood, that will be some prep race.
Jerkens confirmed QR for the Fla Derby.Posted in the DRF last night.
mjs