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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Lost Cause on February 27, 2009, 12:23:06 PM

Title: ROTW??
Post by: Lost Cause on February 27, 2009, 12:23:06 PM
Hello,
Can you please let me know what the ROTW is.  I want to do a create a card.
Thanks
Title: Re: ROTW??
Post by: TGAB on February 27, 2009, 12:32:39 PM
The ROTW is the Canadian Turf Stakes at GP, race 8 on Saturday.
Title: Re: ROTW??-Bombs Away??
Post by: Silver Charm on February 27, 2009, 07:00:22 PM
TGAB the longshot pick looks live assuming he still goes as a pretty good longshot as in 12-1 or 15-1.

I really think Vanguisher was pretty impressive coming down the lane like a bullet train in last. The consistent 1w first turn trips might not occur again but the rider has always gotten him outside on the final turn probably knowing he has horse.

Gotta use him with the longshots.
Title: Re: ROTW??
Post by: Rick B. on February 28, 2009, 02:10:17 PM
I swear, sometimes I wish I could just follow you guys to the window, and jusk ask for a \"repeat\" on your bets. ROTW is my best shot at a freeroll every week.

I didn\'t play tri\'s, but anyone that did and read the analysis should have had the #4 Buffalo Man on the ticket.

Great job this week. Full field of competitive horses, and you guys nail it damn near ice cold -- that is the power of ThoroGraph.
Title: Re: ROTW??
Post by: TGJB on February 28, 2009, 02:26:45 PM
We also put up the FOY as a cold exacta box. Unfortunately it looked good on Ragozin too (Friedman picked the winner), they both went off a lot shorter than the ML.
Title: Re: ROTW??
Post by: shanahan on February 28, 2009, 04:19:26 PM
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We also put up the FOY as a cold exacta box.
> Unfortunately it looked good on Ragozin too
> (Friedman picked the winner), they both went off a
> lot shorter than the ML.


JB - let\'s not get too carried away.  When TG has it \"right on\"
TG is quick to point it out in print/board posts...how about those card where NO winners are on it?  Things are never too good, nor too bad.  Be humble, it\'s suits.  TG does not need to brag.
Title: Re: ROTW??
Post by: Michael D. on February 28, 2009, 04:38:43 PM
shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > We also put up the FOY as a cold exacta box.
> > Unfortunately it looked good on Ragozin too
> > (Friedman picked the winner), they both went off
> a
> > lot shorter than the ML.
>
>
> JB - let\'s not get too carried away.  When TG has
> it \"right on\"
> TG is quick to point it out in print/board
> posts...how about those card where NO winners are
> on it?  Things are never too good, nor too bad.
> Be humble, it\'s suits.  TG does not need to brag.


Recent ROTWs have been very solid, and I have not seen a lot of bragging. They nailed Santa Teresita in the analysis ($28.80), and not a word.

Nothing wrong with pointing out the Quality Road/Jojo hit, though I\'m not sure you can call any exacta box a cold hit. You need to get that 1-2 to call it cold.
Title: Re: ROTW??
Post by: TGJB on March 01, 2009, 11:09:01 AM
I only mentioned the 2 horse box because it was a big race that was being discussed but one we did not do as ROTW. I thought about doing the FOY, and would have had the winner as the value (for exactly the same reasons Friedman liked him), but that was at the 12-1 or so I thought he would be, since he was no sure thing to run well or like the distance, and there were faster horses going in. It was also not a race where there were any significant, clear handicapping points to make. In fact I didn\'t see much to discuss in any of the stakes, which is why I let Alan do ROTW this week.

As far as the \"cold\" question goes, the play returned about 18-1. I\'m counting that as cold. Next time I\'ll differentiate between cold and ice cold.
Title: Re: ROTW??
Post by: Sandreadis on March 01, 2009, 01:26:02 PM
The race of the week analysis is based upon the morning line odds. The 1-2 finishers in the race both went off at 6/1, half their 12/1 morning line. The author in both instances liked \"being compensated by the odds\" with these horses. Wouldn\'t these horses have been labled \"underlays\" with a 6/1 ML?
Title: Re: ROTW??
Post by: TGJB on March 01, 2009, 01:48:34 PM
I can\'t speak for Alan, but I used those horses at the prices, did okay but not great. In reality they were probably very slight overlays at those prices, using them together in exotics created a decent overlay (box gave a decent return).