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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on February 25, 2009, 04:18:24 PM

Title: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Silver Charm on February 25, 2009, 04:18:24 PM
FOY looks like a much better field. At least from a name only perspective which is all I have to go by.

With the 12 post Tricky better break out the really good stuff.

Captain Candy Man might have a little message for those Dunkirk lovers. Same goes for Beethoven who has a good solid route under his belt.

80 degree weather will make for perfect racing and no excuses.
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Michael D. on February 25, 2009, 04:41:24 PM
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FOY looks like a much better field. At least from
> a name only perspective which is all I have to go
> by.
>
> With the 12 post Tricky better break out the
> really good stuff.
>
> Captain Candy Man might have a little message for
> those Dunkirk lovers. Same goes for Beethoven who
> has a good solid route under his belt.
>
> 80 degree weather will make for perfect racing and
> no excuses.


that FoY is an unbelievable race. credit to Frank for what has been one of the best GP meets in history. you really can\'t watch a live race, and your MEC securities are virtually worthless, but I\'ll be in Living Room Downs, and I short stuff like MEC instead of buying it, so I have no complaints.

where is Take the Points going? post 4 in the GP race, post 12 in the Sham.
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: ajkreider on February 25, 2009, 06:28:46 PM
Take the Points apparently missed his plane today.  Should go out tomorrow morning.

You know it\'s a tough meet when a Belmont winner and a Preakness runner-up are matching up in a claiming race (Da\'Tara and Sweetnorthernsaint on the FOY undercard).

Hope to be there.
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Silver Charm on February 25, 2009, 06:32:04 PM
Not sure where Take the Points will go but the 12 hole may have made that decision for them and where he is standing right now. Would somebody ship a horse 48 hours out?

My reference to the weather is there is no chance of rain. At least as of the forecast now.

The Canadian turned up pretty good and $150K for a Grade 3 is good money these days. The Sham will go about 8:00 eastern time so prepare for stamina and don\'t burn out because Big Cap Day is the following week.

Michael D I will also be at LRD. But my LRD has a taste of Del Mar as I look to my right at my 42 inch computer monitor and look to the left at the Atlantic.

Somewhere in between will be my DRF and my TG Sheets. Better find some winners in there in this economy.
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Michael D. on February 25, 2009, 07:07:16 PM
re Take the Points - high weight from post 12, or getting 6 lbs from post 4?

I like Take the Points and Theregoesjojo from just off the pace getting weight from the inside. I also like speedballs Taqarub and Quality Road.

Let\'s see the figures .......
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Flighted Iron on February 25, 2009, 10:04:26 PM
SC,

 www.gulfstreampark.com  click on racing and then go to stakes schedule.PP\'s
are gratis.


mjs
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Ntheiroff on February 26, 2009, 02:59:21 AM
Fellas,

Remember, the FOY is a one turn mile. Post position is immaterial.
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: big18741 on February 26, 2009, 05:45:01 AM
Too many fast horses in the FOY.Pletcher is willing to trade for a bad post and weight where he feels he has a chance.Lots of questions to be anwered at GP:

Can we get both Notonthesamepage and This One\'s for Phil Xing off the board?

Will Capt Candyman Can be the post time favorite off his Hutcheson win? Nice improving horse,but he was fully extended and washy-gets a real different pace scenario in this one.Not sure he can stay in contact with these gassers.

Will slow Beethoven get overbet as a turning back closer?

Theregoesjojo had some Mcpeak magic off a very long layoff.Good post and weight,but does that big new top set him back a little in the short term? Should be able to get a trip,but that rider can butcher it with the best of them.

Rocketing Returns ran horrible in the Hutcheson.Zito switches riders and he\'s starting to heat up.Can the horse bounce back against a much better field?

Kimmel is having a brutal meet.Will the blinkers help get Breakwater Edison back to his Nashua race?

Can Taqarub keep moving forward and does he mind sitting off horses?Front end might be tough to get.Getting acclimated at Palm Meadows for sharp connections.

Quality Road was very fast in his debut on Remsen day.Can the lasix help?

Leaning toward Taqarub,but the price on Quality Road will be tempting.
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Michael D. on February 26, 2009, 08:49:59 AM
Ntheiroff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fellas,
>
> Remember, the FOY is a one turn mile. Post
> position is immaterial.


thanks. I was indeed handicapping a 9f race.

CCC is a more difficult toss at 1M. the other grandson of Storm Creek, BWE, is also capable of putting up a good figure going a mile. the distance should suit QR well. 114 lbs, first lasix - he looks ready to run big. has to break though, as the task is going to be very difficult if he has to be urged along early to get that lead (as he was last). Taqarub might wind up being more of a one-paced stayer than a super fast miler (sire says mile, dam says two miles), but you have to respect those connections. Jojo is in a perfect spot here to do some damage from off the pace. Phil? I don\'t have a clue.

tough one.
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Ntheiroff on February 26, 2009, 05:38:29 PM
Just my opinion \"Phil\" is going to be tough
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: marcus on February 26, 2009, 10:13:34 PM
Leaning towards a purist type sheets approach - I\'m having a problem believing in any of these in the FOY who are off of top efforts   . . .
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Flighted Iron on February 26, 2009, 10:29:47 PM
If anyone can do it \"the candyman can\".May get beat tomorrow but at 25-1 futures
and 2 starts at the spires may be pure joy less the sorrow.

Sharp handicapping,
mjs
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: bobphilo on February 27, 2009, 03:20:24 PM
Good point Marcus. The question is, is this a golden opportunity to throw out some heavily bet horses or does one risk eliminating the winner by overly dogmatic application of bounce theory?

Bob
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: Silver Charm on February 27, 2009, 03:54:32 PM
The really fast ones complicate things a little more by some of the additional layoff time
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: bobphilo on February 27, 2009, 05:32:08 PM
That, and the question of whether they can handle the stretch out in distance. Plus some of the ones who have been in a route before were not in the same form then.

Bob
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: marcus on February 27, 2009, 05:35:48 PM
Bob, That\'s an excellent question to bring up  , only a fair opportunity imo -  it\'s a lot easier when you only need a few or couple of ones to bounce  . . .
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: bobphilo on February 27, 2009, 05:46:29 PM
Yep, the trick is figuring out which ones will bounce and which will pair up. While I doubt that the ones with the super sprint figures will be able to repeat them, especially while stretching out, they can still bounce and win.

Bob
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: covelj70 on February 27, 2009, 07:59:48 PM
I am thinking back to the Hutch when it was the ROTW where it was mentioned that Break Water Edison was one to watch next time out but that he wasn\'t primed for his first race back.

With the better post (he doesn\'t like the rail) and the blinkers, can he run back to the \"1\" the Nashua and make some noise tomorrow?
Title: Re: FOY vs Sham
Post by: big18741 on February 27, 2009, 08:42:19 PM
A brutal meet for Kimmel.

BWE did run better in his second lifetime start so does he run better in his second race back at 3? Will the blinkers wake him up,or does he hate this surface? I don\'t think anyone knows including the trainer.We know he ran fast at the distance.

Playing the two really fast ones to bounce out.Leaves me with Taqarub and Quality Road the two sharp works horses.