Normally at this time of the year, I am trying to find bombers who are under the radar screen (haven\'t been successful with this strategy by the way) but this year, the logical choices at this point seem to offer very fair value all things considered.
While there are a million things that can go wrong between now and the first Sat in May, Old Fashioned at 15-1 at Wynn seems like a a good play and I took a stab with a pretty decent sized bet on him at 15-1 and half of the amount on Break Water Edison at 30-1.
They are my top two choices at this point and to get those odds on the top two on my list seems ok understanding that the odds are against them getting into the gate at all due to injury, etc.
Old Fashioned in particular has already run 2 numbers as a two year old that would make him competitive in the Derby and while we certainly have the risk that these huge efforts have ruined the horse, particularly given what isn\'t the most sound breeding in the world, Larry Jones seems to have heeded JB\'s advice from last year and is taking it alot slower with Old Fashioned.
We know Jones can get them ready and we know that Old Fashioned can get the distance and is fast enough already. I am willing to bet on him staying sound and winning at least two of the prep races and take 15-1 on him now with the idea that he would be 3-1 on Derby Day if he wins two of the preps as impressively as he won the last two.
Thoughts?
I\'m looking for odds on Well Positioned -- do you happen to still have the sheet from Wynn?
BoDog has Well Positioned at 30-1, but after several hours of trying to fund my new account (denied! denied! denied!), I gave up. I\'ll wait until I get to LV, I guess.
sorry Rick, don\'t have the sheet anymore and didn\'t think to look at Well Positioned.
Can lightening strike twice for Paul Pompa?
I will see if I can track it down for you.
Good luck
I believe Old Fashioned is a perfect example of a horse that likely wont run well in the derby. I\'ve noticed that the real real fast 2 year olds are often horses that have developed early and don\'t maintain the advantage later on in the season. I also believe its likely that a horse that runs that fast at 2 will be spent by the time May comes around. Old Fashioned has also not been tested AT ALL. He has had an easy lead in his last couple races with NO pressure and from what I can tell right now he is a one dimensional speedball until I see otherwise. He sort of reminds me of High Limit in 2005. He too started his career at DEL and was real fast running a 1 and 2 at 2 and a total speed horse who ran an 24 in the derby off only 4 races lifetime.
I\'m hoping this link will get you to Wynn\'s current Derby future prices. If not, I apologize for my technical ineptitude.
http://www.horseplayerdaily.com/
Scroll down the page, left side you\'ll see a link to the Wynn
I will be @ Oaklawn for Opening Day and the rest of the wkend...the Derby winner usually goes through here these days..I\'ll ask around.
Thank you for the posting as I have been waiting to bet on Big Drama. While he is not under the radar due to his last impressive win, David Fawkes is an under the radar trainer. Fawkes is up and coming and hungry, and has done well in the past with stakes horses(Take D\'Tour).
There are certainly a large number of two year olds that run huge that never go on and develop into Derby type horses but in terms of Old Fashioned, I think its a much greater risk that he get\'s hurt before the Derby and never gets in as opposed to not being good enough if he gets there.
As JB Will remind us when he does the seminar (is it sad that I am already jonesing about this on Jan 15th?), healthy 3 year old in the spring of their 3 year old season are likely to improve by about 4 points from their 2 year old top. The more they improve from the two year old number, the more likely they are to start moving in the wrong direction before they cycle around again.
Because of this, I usually eliminate any horse from my Derby list that a) hasn\'t run as a two year old, and b) hasn\'t run fast as a two year old. Every once in awhile a freak like Curlin comes along who comes out firing 0\'s and never looks back but he is the definition of the exception to the rule in many ways and even he couldn\'t win the Derby.
Street Sense is an example of what I am talking about in terms of a horse that put up a big 2 year old number that he then ran back to in the Derby (even though he didn\'t replicate it leading up to the DErby which I believe was by trainer design). Old Fashioned\'s Remsen wasn\'t as fast as Street Sense\'s Breeders Cup Juv but it\'s still the same idea in that I think Old Fashioned has the kind of two year old base to build off of that makes him look like the real deal.
As I said in my original post, a million things can go wrong to prevent him from getting there but I think the trainer is handling him better as a result of last year\'s tragedy with Eight Belles and if he gets into the gate, I think 15-1 will look pretty darn good.
Good luck
shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I will be @ Oaklawn for Opening Day and the rest
> of the wkend...the Derby winner usually goes
> through here these days..I\'ll ask around.
>
If by \"usually\" and \"these days\" you mean once in the past 12 years, then yes, the Derby winner \"usually goes through\" Oaklawn.
EJXD2 wins \"post of the year honors\" so far! LOL...In teen parlance the kids would say Shanahan got \"owned\" by EJXD2:-)
Well Positioned is the one that stands out to me too. I look for him every day on the GP entries. Still can\'t get over his Maiden Score. He\'s legit. If anyone sees his future odds please post them or send them via Private Message. Thanks!
Does TG offer a Future Wager product that includes all the sheets for the horses (less the \"field\" horses) that are avilable for each individual pool?
ApNY:
Probably not a fair comparison. Old Fashioned has a 2YO stakes win to his
credit, admittedly against a very limited field, in the Remsen.
Your comment sent me to the Pedigree Inquiry, where it is reported that High
Limit shot blanks as a stallion and is now used as a foxhunter.
I didn\'t like High Limit a bit in the Derby. The Harvard newspaper once reported
that \"Harvard Beats Yale 29-29\". In the case of High Limit, owner Gary West
outvoted trainer Bobby Frankel 1-1, and West\'s Derbylust overruled Frankel\'s
fear that HL was not ready for prime time.
Yes.
Uncle Buck, come on...trying to get the juices going on this suddenly quiet board...and it really was a bad thing to say \"WINNER\"...should have said \"top contenders\" I guess. the other poster really did nail me. I take it that EJXD2 won\'t be with me at the races this weekend. Why do I still think Afleet Alex and Curlin were winners? Or Lawyer Ron for that matter...maybe I\'ll repost and title it Preakness Winners.
EJDX2 - I must say, it wasn\'t a bad comeback. Point Taken (Given).
I\'m not a pro by any stretch of the imagination. But your bet really doesn\'t make much sense to me.
Even if he does win a couple of races and a major prep before, 3-1 seems unlikely. Street Sense was 4-1, and he looked better at two. Big Brown and Curlin have been the favorites the last two derbies, and no one could have picked them out in January. Barbaro was the 2nd choice at 6-1.
So, you\'ve more reason to think, if everything goes well, Old Fashioned might go off at 5-1 or 7-1. And 15-1 is not the much of a premium over that to make a sizeable bet worthwhile four months out.
If you really think he\'s the likely winner, save your money for derby day and play him on top of exotics.
thanks for the thoughts, fair points but remember, Big Brown went off at 6-5 and Street Sense would have been alot shorter had he not lost on the poly heading into the Derby so I don\'t think Old Fashioned will be higher than 3-1 if he wins both of his preps, especially considering the other horses that will vie for favoritism this year will be coming back from Dubai and they will have all kinds of knocks against them (right or wrong, those knocks will raise their odds and lower the odds on whoever else winds up favorite).
I for one enjoy the KD futures although the last 2 years were relatively slim pickings for me finding horses to use at odds of 70-1 &up . Of course they have to run well enough in preps to qualify , I don\'t mind an outsider whose a \"developer \" and receives no following in the media . However imo 15-1 for a horse that\'s a race day favorite if makes the race is the bet and doesn\'t seem like a bad idea to me - specially if you really like the horse . . . I haven\'t begun to look at the overall 2009 futures picture yet but for some reason I have a feeling that I\'m going to like the KD Futures market a whole lot better than the Financial market this year .