Has anyone noticed any particular betting patterns at GP? Starting with the first race on opening day, Wesley Ward\'s horse opened at 4/5 and won paying 9/2. Ditto for Wild Awake in the 4th today. Strummer and National Kid on Saturday(TG pick) also. Opener today Jerkens horse got slammed from 7/2 to 9/5 in last 3 minutes and won by 10. The \"smart money\" seems to be right quite often so far. Now in the 6th, going off in 15 minutes, Soldier gal, 12-1 m/l opened 4/. We\'ll see. Curious to hear what others have noticed.
Yes, another one -Soldier Girl opened 4/5 from 12-1 M/L and just won at 5/2. Is the track oddsmaker off down here?
It might all be a big coincidence, but you definitely called it in advance. To review, Soldier Girl is bet down early and stays bet down at 5-2. Then during the race Coa has a 2-length lead on a 5-1 shot and loses the irons and has to pull up. The favorite, Choosing, gets the lead, but gets beaten by Soldier Girl in the final strides. So, good call and hope you bet it if you were onto the trend, and otherwise...
I do think the 12-1ML was bad, but the way the betting and the race went didn\'t exactly help disprove any conspiracy theories...
Not really suspecting any consiracies. Actually I boxed the winner with the horse with broken equipment and backed the loser of the two I am a big David Fawkes fan as a friend of mine has some horses with him. At this time I will predict that Big Drama gets the roses in May.
And now in the 8th, an 8-1 M/L opened at 4/5 and won at 5/2.
The morning lines have been WAY off in my estimation.
Gulfstream has offered some pretty evenly matched races, so that always makes it tougher, but the lines are not good.
It\'s a lost art. The ML odds have gotten ridiculously sloppy at many tracks.
I\'m not really a conspiracy guy, but a bunch of morning line betdowns did win in one day, so I can where it might be noticeable.
Race 3 on Thursday at Gulfstream.
Pavoratti\'s Soul is 20-to-1 on the morning line and wins for fun at 5-to-1.
EdD
Yeah, this is a little different.
I\'m not a conspiracy theorist, and in fact, I am not shy about ridiculing such folks in public...but this is pretty cut and dried, so far.
It\'s not \"bet down, run better than expected, sometimes win\" that\'s happening, it\'s \"bet down, win\". Period.
Wish we could access the tote system to see where the money is coming from, at what time, and in what increments. What\'s going on at GP right now doesn\'t seem to be the least bit random or coincidental at all, but I\'m stuck with only evidence and no proof.
It\'s probably Magna executives trying to get back some of that lost stock value:-)
Anybody break this down by trainer or type of runner (firster etc.)?
I actually had a good bet on Pavarotti\'s Soul due to receiving the Nov-DEc issue of the new Horse Society Magazine. Lauren Stich has an article on Hidden Turf Sires, and tabs Perfect Soul as one whose \"runners will be a dozen lengths better on turf than dirt.\"
I don\'t see the smart money there today yet.
Of the 5 most obvious to me, 3 were maiden claimers, one msw and one a 35,000 clm. 5 different trainers. None were firsters, but the maiden level makes sense that someone would know if they had an unknown quantity.
Same deal but not as aggregious.
1 and 6 looked like they should be heavy chalk and they were on the ML
First flash, 2 is 3-5 and 5 is 5-2. I think they were 5 and 6 to 1 respectively on the ML but I could be wrong about that. 1 and 6 are both 5-1 respectively at first flash.
2 wins over the 5 with a bomber coming in 3rd.
McPeek was the trainer in the 8th and he also one the other 3 year old race in the 6th.
Thank you for starting this string as I was going to go very heavy on the 6 in the 8th but I didn\'t when I saw the same suspicious patterns that you had highlighted here. Thank you very much.
Is it considered a \"pattern\" when the horse I bet keeps running a good second when I bet to win? If so, that\'s happened a lot this GP meet.
UB
They would need a couple of years of steady winners at this rate to accumulate anything near the losses incurred fro MAGNA.
NCT
I did a \"quick and dirty\" analysis.
I compared the final odds of the winners to their ML, and flagged anyone who went off at odds that were 50% or more different than the ML -- that\'s all, no opening odds vs. final odds (don\'t have that anyway), no pool size considerations, just raw odds comparisons.
So far, GP has run 36 races, and in 12 of them, the final odds of the winner deviated from the ML by 50% or more: lower 11 times, higher only once.
The trainers of these horses are:
Carey, Julia (yeah, who?)
Catalano
Hills
Jerkens, H.A.
Maker
McPeek (2)
Mott (the 50% \"overlay\")
Poulos, L.
Tagg
Walder
Weaver
I\'m not a professional linemaker, so I don\'t know if being more than 50% off from the public 1/3 of the time on winners is acceptable or not. Absent that information, I don\'t know what to make of these numbers. I might point out that I don\'t know how many times a horse was bet down 50% or more from his ML and DID NOT win, which I probably should do as soon as I can find a few more minutes.
I didn\'t do runner types yet, either. For now, I\'d keep an eye on the tote board.
I haven\'t been watching but I do know this.
The smart money is always good result wise. The question is usually how good are they in hiding what they are actually doing.
Maybe they are getting greedy/sloppy at GP, maybe a bad odds line is highlighting some of their plays. Florida in the winter was always a tough place to make a good line.