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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: shanahan on December 29, 2008, 11:55:02 AM

Title: Santa Anita late pik 3
Post by: shanahan on December 29, 2008, 11:55:02 AM
Race 7 - the first post spot leads me to ask TG a question.  Is it possible for young horse to actually have an 02X pattern if they were lightly raced and then had a layoff?  If so, # Modification fits.  I think so, he\'s in the box.  We Will Rock you obviously will take money with Gomez in the saddle for Clement, but this looks like an \"ouchy\" horse to me.  No go.  Accopela Choir is the TG choice and his last was a new top.  Drops back to allowance, is rested, no issue with him...but Flashing Forward also has close to a 02X with his last two being on turf.  Many folks here believe that turf is poly.  I don\'t.  He\'s in.
Selections are 1,3,4.   TG analysis is # 3.

Race 8 - Unusual for foreign horses to win right off the bat.  Majestic Diamond did.  This board always talks about how the euros are superior turfers.  I agree, then bet against them (fan or handicapper?).  New Zealand is not Europe, but it was impressive.  He\'s in with 2nd L.  Where has lucky JH been?  Seems like, well, since April!  Carla\'s horses are running (killed me in the tri in yesterday\'s finale).  He\'s in.  Band of Thunder is back and forth, but due for another 3, so he\'s in (Mitchell/Bejarano is deadly).  Candy Pull can hold onto new tops it appears for at least 4 races..he\'s in.  This is getting expensive.  Racketeer is a nice horse, Chantal will no doubt go to the lead, but today can be caught.
Selections - 3,5,6,7.  TG Analysis is a box with 1,2,6.  Also noted is that Lucky JH is a bad ML fav.  We\'ll see.

Race 9 - Tanzanite looks like a natural selection until you take into consideration he\'s dropping form $32K to a $10K? No thanks.  Steppin Out Rose has a good top, is apparently the \"family horse\" since July, but when last ran a \"12\" it took 2 more races to get down to where Brought It has been the last 3 races prior to a lengthy layoff.  Not a real popular sire, but he\'s throwing sprinters.  But shouldn\'t his goal be a little higher coming off the layoff?  Not today.  The consistent runners (a \"9\" will win it) look to be the Ann\'s plan, Nicole\'s Image, and Alex\'s Wish.  TG Rule - in CLMG races, horses rarely win two in a row...toss out Ann\'s Plan.  
Selections - 3,6.  No Bejarano or Gomez in this race.  TG analysis = 3 / 1,10.

Pik 3 cost = $24 before any scratches.
Title: Re: Santa Anita late pik 3
Post by: TGJB on December 29, 2008, 05:03:22 PM
I was live in the pick 6 for a ton going into these 3 races (2x2x3 in the first three). The favorite knocked me out in the first leg, used 5 in the next of which the favorite that won was my worst result by far, but didn\'t use the incredibly heavily bet winner of the last anyway.