http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/48414.htm
Wow, seems pretty drastic!
Adding that Friday day of racing cost a few mil.
Whoops.
And the Synthetic handle cost a couple more......
Number of meets/tracks I haven\'t bet due to track change to synthetic surface: zero
Number of meets/tracks I purposely have sought out to bet due to track change to synthetic surface: three
Number of meets/tracks I wanted to, but haven\'t been able to bet due to signal fights, so I cannot access with the current three major ADW platforms I have from home: multiple
I commented a number of months ago, that I was surprised more here were not commenting on the economic crisis.
Even horseplayers (and racetracks) have to live in the real world, as hard as that is to believe.
The interesting question is: How have the signal fights have affected your total handle? I think the willingness of Churchill Downs to take a hard line with the THG is based in part on the assumption that bettors will shift their handle to tracks that have deals with the ADWs.
My last-resort ADW is NYRA, which allows out-of-staters to bet by phone (but not online) on tracks that are simulcast by NYRA tracks.
Its not so much the effect of signal fights, it\'s the cause.
The cause is that the various racing jurisdictions can not seem to work together
to maximize racing\'s full potential.
I see in racing\'s future 15-20 live racing venues in North America, hopefully
unified under one sanctioning body and utilizing a synchronized year round
schedule. The result might be larger fields featuring quality runners.
The foal crop, now in excess of 30,000 per year, will drop into the high teens.
While it would have been nice if this reduction was done by design, I would
imagine that the current US economy will bring about this reduction. There are
multiple issues here, including excluding non stakes winning stallion prospects
and unraced mares from the breeding equation.
TVG and HRTV disappear, are replaced by a network which takes the multi billion
dollar business/sport of Racing seriously and does not treat Racing
condescendingly. This network will have a 24 hour presence and will not be
attached to an ADW platform. This network will cover quality racing from Europe
and Asia extensively, as these (medication free) continents will handle more US
action given the reduction in US racing. This network is available on all cable
systems.
One media clearinghouse provides the information now currently supplied by 4
separate entities -- DRF, Equibase, TG and Rags; JB cashes out and begins a
quest to become king of the handicapping contests and lower his golf handicap
to single digits.
The signal fights have destroyed wagering and interest. Certainly mine. I tried to bet Calder oon late Sat but could not because I needed to go to the track or the dog site. Excuse me it is X-mass shopping season with plenty of other todo\'s on my weekend hit list. I did get to watch thru online so there is progress.
But do not underestimate the Synthetic issue. The BC caught a bad weather day at Monmouth, a good site that probably deserves another chance. The Synthetic handle was weak and it will be weak again next year because they are running it over the same surface. My Keeneland wagering has nosed dived because I just do not have a read on the stuff.
The big guys are getting their clocks cleaned becasue all of the races were won by Euros or Turf horses. Now the little guy is going to get cleaned becasue of the cuts.
Maybe the big guy purses should have been cut since they handing it over the Europeans. Screw the little guy is bad public relations. Like the signal disputes.......
We just did a breakdown of online sales over the last 3 years by track. CRC is way down (40%) this year. Oaklawn, which I believe was carried by every ADW, is way up-- double the sales of 07. This is presumably because people who buy online figure to play online or by phone.
What has happened to the synthetic tracks before vs after they went synthetic?
I\'ve only got 06 on,but Del Mar was up a lot last year (20%), up again about 6% this year. Santa Anita was up 25% last year, about flat this year, but it\'s a little complicated-- on one hand they had a bunch of cancellations and we don\'t have the whole year in yet, on the other they had the BC, which adds a lot of sales. Hollywood was up 22% last year, flat this year. Keeneland was up 20% last, 13% this year.
Basically, the numbers for each track should go up each year, since our sales do (or did until the economy hit the fan a few months ago, now we\'re running about even with last year). The reason we did this breakdown is to look at the effect of the AWDs not taking tracks-- judging by Calder (and to a lesser extent Churchill-- down 10%) that\'s affecting not just bettors but us as well.
It will be interesting to see how things develop in this industry over the next few years. The economic crisis should accelerate some pretty drastic changes-- to the bloodstock market, to tracks, to everyone. Maybe even to some in the data end of the pool.
The next year will be tough. People need to watch out or they will kill everything including themselves. Maybe we need a couple of tracks to go down or a few fewer racing dates.
My concern then is do you also lose the fans. This is no time for people to be playing hardball.
TG shop hang tough. America is the only country you can still bet on even after paired XX\'s.
... and a one-year layoff, maybe.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TG shop hang tough. America is the only country
> you can still bet on even after paired XX\'s.
Amen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE
These economic problems may stimulate municipalities to wake up and take a look at racing since it can be a source of desperately needed revenue. In New York, for example, the State is facing big shortfalls...and if they can\'t put the slots in Aqueduct now (just one example) it\'s never going to happen. I know nobody is going to be breaking ground on condos over there in the forseeable future, that\'s for sure...
Today Paterson said he wants a casino at Belmont.
We were not the data provider I was talking about, we\'re fine unless the industry as a whole goes under, in which case you won\'t be needing figures. My guess is a couple of others may be in trouble. Not directly related, but Bloodhorse just cut staff, budget, and advertising rates.
By the way, how exactly is Magna supposed to survive this credit crunch with all that debt?
They will not.
One avenue is one that they have worked for several years...screwing the sponsors of racing/big race days. Promise, promise,promise...day of the race? \"we forgot\"...
Then what happens? No more sponsors...no more purses...no more racing. He can\'t go down fast enough for me. Sorry, but I speak from first-hand experience for several years regarding the second leg of the triple crown.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We were not the data provider I was talking about,
> we\'re fine unless the industry as a whole goes
> under, in which case you won\'t be needing figures.
> My guess is a couple of others may be in trouble.
> Not directly related, but Bloodhorse just cut
> staff, budget, and advertising rates.
>
> By the way, how exactly is Magna supposed to
> survive this credit crunch with all that debt?
Shanahan, he overpaid, he overlevered and overpromised.
Am I talking about Frank Stronach or the following:
Jeff Immelt-GE
Lloyd Blankfein-Goldman Sachs
Chuck Prince-Citigroup
Stan O\'Neil-Merrill Lynch
This disease was everywhere. Those looking for it easily caught it.
....well lets see, if I can get figs, get used to watching them run in reverse, make a bet, and watch on TV, I wouldn\'t mind jumping into the hong kong pools
Jerry I looked at their balance sheet and their income statement for the third quarter of \'08. It looks to me like Stronach is not facing insurmountable problems at this time (unless things have changed RADICALLY for them in the fourth quarter).
The main issue...to this observer...is that he is not generating any revenue to pay his debt service (the interest on his debt). They are losing money, and I see this looks like it\'s because he had a very high level of \"general and admin expenses\" in third quarter. This may have been a one time thing...it sticks out like a sore thumb on the sheet...
But the level of LONG TERM debt vs. assets is not that bad...especially when you see that the total assets exceed the total liabilities. It doesn\'t look like he is in over his head...at least financially. The \"credit crunch\" is only going to hurt him if he needs to borrow A LOT more money.
You can see for yourself via Yahoo! Finance.
HP
The comparison of Frank Stronach to these financial guys is...to put it mildly...ridiculous. Look at the bottom line for yourself...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=MECA
Even given the amount he\'s losing every quarter...if you think he\'s going bust anytime soon I think you\'re way off...
Comparing Stronach to Stanley O\'Neal is like comparing a tugboat to the Titanic. Nowhere near it...
HP
You were saying........
Re: Stronachs Trial Balloon
Posted by: HP (IP Logged)
Date: August 16, 2004 03:54PM
Silver,
To own a billion dollars in assets with only $137 million in long term debt is pretty good! Even if you look at it from the short-term side (the way you have it figured, where you are counting ALL his debt) - the asset/debt ratio is about 2:1.
As for \"write downs\", everybody does what they\'re allowed to do. I can\'t imagine too many analysts getting bent out of shape by a $26 million charge.
One way to look at Stronach\'s financial picture here is - if he dumped a few properties, he could pay most his debt and have a few tracks left over as \"profit.\"
It looks to me like increasing operating expenses are what\'s really eating away at his bottom line. Even without knowing about the offer referred to in this thread ($6.50 per share), I don\'t see this as a slam dunk short.
Now Donald Trump, there\'s a guy you can short without hesitation! I wonder what he will have to sell to stay afloat? Could be the end of the Trump era in ACity coming up. Good riddance. HP
HP -
Look at the cash. He\'s losing $20 to $30 million a quarter and they\'ve only got $30-odd million in cash left. They\'ve been pushing off debt obligations and there is no way they can get any financing that wouldn\'t make things even worse. Unless they can sell off properties at a decent price - A BIG IF - they are screwed. And, even if they do that, they are screwed by the loss of cash flow. Put a fork in it.
This is odd. I did not post this. I do agree with most of it though...
The REAL HP
I don\'t agree. We\'ll see how the next few quarters go. I think he\'s got options and some room.
People can look it up. I said then this guy was a short if there ever was one and you said his Balance Sheet looked good.
Stronach is no different than those other guys I mentioned. As a matter of fact he may be better. He built his own auto parts company from scratch and destroyed a race track holding company. Those other guys took over companys others had built and put them on the ropes.
The same ropes the shareholders will eventually hang them with......
I\'m sorry Silver...now I see what you are talking about. This is from
Re: Stronachs Trial Balloon
Posted by: HP (IP Logged)
Date: August 16, 2004 03:54PM
So it\'s my post from 4 years ago.
Here\'s what I see buddy. If you had shorted the stock in Aug. 16, 2004 - according to this chart
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MECA#chart1:symbol=meca;range=20031029,20081029;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
it was 120.00 a share
a year later in Aug. 2005
it was 128.00 a share
BOY IS MY FACE RED. It looks to me like...I wrote this post in 2004...and what I said was...absolutely right for the entire YEAR. The stock went up. Which would have made you...wrong...for the first YEAR after I posted this.
What happened next?
In Aug. 2006 it was 93.00 a share.
So if you had shorted the stock and held that position for TWO YEARS you made 27.00 a share.
But still...I would say my post holds up pretty well for TWO YEARS after I wrote it. The stock went down about 20%...that is not crash and burn...and you would\'ve had to have had some guts to hold that postion when the stock went up.
So here it is...2008...and you are pulling out this post and CROWING about this...like I was wrong...as if my 2004 post could have contemplated every move Stronach has made since...including things I would have to be Nostradamus to predict.
Wow. I don\'t suppose you will admit that for a very reasonable amount of time after I wrote this post (from 2004 to 2006) my analysis was dead on and you were wrong? Even though everybody can click on that chart and see the facts?
I stand by what I wrote. We\'ll see if Stronach goes broke. He has real assets. It\'s not just bad paper. Have it your way. He\'s just like the Wall St. guys.
HP
Silver,
I can\'t stop laughing.
How come you didn\'t write a post in 2005 that talked about how right I was? \"Gee, HP wrote that the balance sheet was okay and stock went up this year. I guess I was wrong. Silver.\" Maybe you can use your archive searching talents to come up with that missing post.
I didn\'t realize what I was writing in 2004 was something you would take me to task for...FOUR YEARS LATER! My opinions have a shelf life man! I wish I had the talent to look at a balance sheet and know where a company would be in four years, after innumerable business decisions and company acquisitions. I wish I had known the real issue (in 2004!) was where the stock would be this week. I should have been able to predict this whole subprime thing back then... Too much.
I\'ll be waiting for you to acknowledge that my post was correct, the balance sheet was fine, and the stock went up. I\'m sure your spin on this is that you were right...and in 2004...you meant you thought the stock would go up...but then plummet over a four year period... You the man!
HP
HP this was once a $140 stock that now trades for a $1.20 and somehow you are claiming you were right.....lol. That the guy had a healthy Balance Sheet for a year or more then it went bad on him.....lol
Yes he has real assets but so do the Wall Street Bankers. Just that none of them are worth what the debt on the books is for.
Everybody did the same thing. They kept borrowing until they couldn\'t borrow anymore, the asset appreciation not only stopped but began to decline and now you and me and everybody else is Fu(ked.
I understand Silver. You\'re a long term trader! You nailed it bro! You must be RICH off that four-year short...
I posted...and a year later the stock was up... Yes I think that makes me right. Anybody can see it. I don\'t think ANYONE would imagine my 2004 post was meant to talk about what would be going on in 2008.
I will skip over your posts from now on...so you can have the field to yourself. I can\'t compete with your intelligence...
HP
Richiebee,
Hopefully someone with an unraced well-bred mare, showing similar traits as her
stakes thrower dam, doesn\'t make an uninfluenced decision and breeds her to an
uninfluential stallion.
Respectfully,
mjs
Knock it off, guys.
http://www.kentucky.com/181/story/629802.html
TGJB - Has not been a post on this in...17 hours. I think you could have considered it \"knocked off\" already. Some of us get in early...
HP
Message To BC \"Braintrust\":
The second day of BC may or may not have been the right move. In my opinion,
Sunday, not Friday, was the proper second day to expand to.
I haven\'t forgotten about the big bad NFL, but I have heard that there have
been some recent developments (internet wagering and the TV remote) which would
allow the average gambler to enjoy both Racing\'s biggest event and one of the 22
or so (counting playoffs) weeks of NFL action.
Another note to the Braintrust. If you insist on running the races in
California on synthetic on Friday, why not try Hollywood-- which would allow a
later post time, lets say 4:30 PM (7:30 ET) and likely garner you a larger
audience.
Flighted:
I am not happy to express my true feelings, that Racing and Breeding each need
contraction to maintain acceptable quality levels, and I am certainly not happy
that this contraction may be a result of a bad economy and not careful planning.
I have had some great times at some of the quaint tracks which need to close.
I have seen and been around some very fast and brave runners who were \"nickle
bred\", if that. There are some great stories of teaser stallions who have
somehow impregnated mares and produced quality runners.
Part of the romance of Racing is the obscure trainer or jockey who ships in
from a leaky roof track to a major venue and takes down a big purse at a nice
mutuel, or a gritty runner who gets good and moves from
cheap claiming heats to stakes races.
If I recall some of your previous posts, you are a follower of Maryland racing.
How much stronger would Maryland racing be if either Philly Park or Delaware
closed? Or if both Philly and Delaware shortened their seasons?
Too many thoroughbreds are being produced. When they do not pan out they are
thrown back into the breeding pool. Is the Green Monkey scheduled to stand stud?
The abundance of thoroughbreds being produced also enables the pinhookers to
trade horses for hundreds of thousands of dollars,horses who realistically may
not have anywhere near that earning potential on the track. Young horses who are
being prepared for a fast 1/8th breeze at a 2YO sale will usually not be seen
running 1-1/8th miles as a 4YO.
I do not think that it is too much to ask that any mare have at least made it to
the races before being bred; the next step might be to exclude non- winning
mares.
Richie,
I agree that horses are to be bred to improve the breed and not drag
it down.I don\'t agree however with your blanket type answer regarding breeding
non winning mares.The Essence\'s mare,the little slow gray,couldn\'t win a race
yet she threw _ _ _ _ _.
btw,was the teaser
Piolt Ship?
Respectfully,
mjs
Flighted:
I may be mistaken, but I seem to recall reading that Kipper Kelly began his
stud career as a teaser.
Going further back, to the early/mid 80s, Shug McGaughey, before hooking up
with the Phipps family, had a runner foaled by a stud named Smead, who
apparently was at one point or another a teaser.
Having a hard time verifying this, so if I am wrong I apologize to all of the
equine descendents and human connections of these fine stallions.
I am sure it would be interesting to statistically evaluate the produce of
unraced mares, I would not be surprised if this has been studied extensively.
You did not react to my comment about Mid-Atlantic contraction. Do you agree
that virtual year round racing in Delaware, Philly and Maryland is overkill?
\"I do not think that it is too much to ask that any mare have at least made it to the races before being bred; the next step might be to exclude non- winning
mares\"
Bee,
You forgot to ban NY Nickle Bred Filly/Mare SNAILS from the breeding shed.A disgrace that females like that will compete every day in the winter at a venue like New York.Many of these females cannot break a TG fig of 20 or a Beyer of 40 but will still be bred by someone with an upstate backyard.
Re racing dates in New York, the upstate politicians that are bleeding the game will not allow reduced race dates. The subject was addressed before.
Mike