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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: shanahan on December 11, 2008, 04:40:35 AM

Title: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: shanahan on December 11, 2008, 04:40:35 AM
Reading that this 2 YO allowance today at the FG has some Derby hopefuls, including Brett Calhoun\'s Indygo Mountain.  Has promise, earned twice of any horse in the field & a deserving fav...but I am going to make a few bucks anyway by including the #2 horse - Code of Honor - into tris.  Code of Honor\'s dam has thrown 7 foals, 87% ITM, 99% ITM going long.  ML odds are 20:1.  Trainer William Bennett also owns the horse, has selected Eddie Martin Jr. to ride (Justin Shepard had ridden previously when the horse was at RP) - capable, veteran of FG.  sorry there is no drug angle to haggle over.

The wager will be:
A)   8/2/1,6,7,9 & 8/1,6,7,9/2 = $8 for the $1 tri.
B)   1,6,7,9/8/2  = $4 for the tri
C)   1,6,7,9 / 2  = $8 for the ex.

$20 total...on race 6 at the FG today!
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: HP on December 11, 2008, 07:27:18 AM
Shanahan,

Have not seen the sheets but...

What would the odds have to be on Code of Honor to have you make a win bet?  If he wins at anywhere near that morning line I would imagine you would be upset...

I would also think about a tri or two without Indygo...  Swing for it man!  

I don\'t know how much I would peg to Indygo\'s earnings at this point.  

Drug free post...

HP
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: richiebee on December 11, 2008, 08:04:38 AM
Actually I was handicapping Calder\'s Saturday All Stakes P4 (haven\'t gotten
sheets yet). Four fairly wide open races at first glance, a little disappointed
that the 2 dirt races in the sequence feature mostly Calder based horses.

Also Saturday,Louisiana Champions Day at FG.

Also Saturday/Sunday last weekend on the Inner Tube before NY racing goes on a
much needed Winter break.

Rare that I would do battle on 3 fronts, but \"tis the Season\". And all I have to
do between now and Saturday is survive 2 office parties...
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: shanahan on December 11, 2008, 10:02:39 AM
HP - you win!  As soon as I posted, I  thought \"somebody is going to wonder, as a gambler, why the hell I don\'t at least have a little on top\".  I\'ve gone down this road before - but there is no way he wins.  The others will be the top 4 low odds horses...OK, $2?


HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shanahan,
>
> Have not seen the sheets but...
>
> What would the odds have to be on Code of Honor to
> have you make a win bet?  If he wins at anywhere
> near that morning line I would imagine you would
> be upset...
>
> I would also think about a tri or two without
> Indygo...  Swing for it man!  
>
> I don\'t know how much I would peg to Indygo\'s
> earnings at this point.  
>
> Drug free post...
>
> HP
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: shanahan on December 11, 2008, 10:06:02 AM
Richie - TwinSpires doesn\'t allow me to play Calder, and it\'s not worth the drive to LoneStar to do so normally, but good luck - they usually payout pretty well down there for those all stks pik 4\"s...let\'s compare notes Sat. AM if you will.  maybe one will be the ROTW.
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: tmon on December 11, 2008, 01:54:41 PM
WOW snowed out in New Orleans.
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: richiebee on December 11, 2008, 03:00:53 PM
...more evidence of global warming...
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: heatherk on December 11, 2008, 04:40:01 PM
Shanahan
Maiden Stats has the dam of Code of Honour as Having only two foals. From what source do you get (7)?
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: shanahan on December 11, 2008, 05:13:38 PM
my mistake...7 runners/starters...I guess those two have 7 starts.  Thanks for correcting.
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: heatherk on December 11, 2008, 05:32:35 PM
Shanahan
Maiden Stats list 2 foals, 1 wnr/1 str, 2yr old 0 wnr/0 str,average winning distance AWD 6.0 furlongs, 0% Off track, 0% Turf, 0 wnr/1 str route, Dosage index of 2.33 FYI wnr is winners and str is starter.
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: spa on December 11, 2008, 05:53:17 PM
You\'re a day late....red board Calder\'s 6th 12/10. Many thanks,TG!!!!
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: heatherk on December 11, 2008, 06:01:25 PM
Spa
Don\'t get all defensive. Someone\'s source is wrong. Was his the DRF comments? Maybe maiden stats is incorrect. Just trying to find out.
Title: Re: new idea - let's handicap a race today!
Post by: shanahan on December 12, 2008, 07:54:59 AM
spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You\'re a day late....red board Calder\'s 6th 12/10.
> Many thanks,TG!!!!


SPA - I don\'t follow.  anachini?  What is the connection?