I am very anxious to see how Larry Jones and Porter handle Old Fashioned on the Derby Trail.
The horse is clearly a freak coming out running 1\'s in his first two races and then running another big number on Sat in the Remsen without being asked too much (JB, maybe a pair?). Obiviously given the way he ran and the breeding here, 1 1/4 shouldn\'t be a problem.
Now, he definitely had things all his own way with uncontested very soft fractions and the quality of the field was very weak but he still finished more than a full second faster than the girls even though he wasn\'t asked down the stretch (I don\'t believe they run much faster when they are asked though anyway).
However, given how much of a public fleecing these two took for Eight Belles and given that this is another Unbridled Song with all of the questions about the soundness of that line, I will be very anxious to see if they try to baby the horse into the Derby or if they pursue a traditional 3 prep campaign with the horse.
Anyone have any thoughts?
Is Larry Jones retiring?
Cov,
Thought Jones was quitting at years end? Nice horse, runs fast but has never been hooked.OF\'s first TG 1 is very generous compared to other data which had him in the TG 4 range, first start.Assuming he stays sound, and if he\'s not one dimensional speed(going long) he\'s obviously looks to be a top contender.
Remember, Sheik Mo has taken the other two top contenders to the desert and that has not worked out too well in years past.
Guess you saw that maiden, Quality Road, win very impressively and fast on Sat in his 1st start creating a buzz with the horsemen.
Mike
I did see that Qulaity Road, very impressive. I still can\'t decide what I think about the Elusive Quality\'s going 1 1/4. I know that Elusive Quality has thrown several ery notable ones with the ability to get that distance (with Raven\'s Pass being the most recent obviously) but I still think of him as throwing better milers. I may have to revisit this opinion before it costs me anymore money.
Just to address the retirement issue, Jones has said he\'ll retire after next year\'s Breeders Cup.
I\'m on Well Positioned\'s band wagon. He crushed some really nice horses by 14 lenghts at the big A 11/22. Being an Awesome Again - I doubt he\'ll have any soundness issues and as we all know it\'s a LONG six months ahead getting them to the gate May 2nd. I\'m pretty sure this one will end up wearing the IEAH stars and stripes ala BB
I would say that subsequent events have made that figure look pretty good.
You have, however, given the explanation for something Alan and I were scratching our heads about-- how he went off 3/2 in a nw1x at Delaware second time out, instead of 1/5. He won by 15.
Well Positioned has been shopped around in the $4 million range. Not sure if there have been any takers yet.
I know this comes up every year but the amount of money that gets thrown around to buy these 2 year olds that run huge in their first start is simply shocking to me.
JB knew about this situation that I was involved with last year. I owned a VERY VERY small piece of a colt that won his 2nd race at Big A running a TG 2 in the process. We were offered $2.5m pending a vet exam immediately after the race. Of course we accepted. Problem is that the horse didn\'t vet as he had a throat issue.
So, of course, the story goes that he won by 10 next out pairing up his 2 in an allowance race and then goes off as the favorite in the Gotham only to finish up the track because his flipped his palate. The vet then screwed up the ensuing surgery and the horse hasn\'t run since. He is back in training but I have all but given up on him.
Went from being worth $2.5m to nothing in a heartbeat. If I owned anymore than a sliver of this thing, I would have been awfully upset. Ever since War Emblem got bought for $1m right before the Derby, this stuff has spirled out of control.
\"I would say that subsequent events have made that figure look pretty good\"
JB,
So you say that he did NOT improve in his second start when he won by 15, only paired that neck sprint win. You are in the minority according all other credible data which shows his second race to be a meaningful forward move.
Mike
Yes. And evidence (not proof) the first figure is right is the second one being the same. This is especially true since so very few 2yos run that fast.
Let\'s put it this way. If you saw a 2yo that ran a 4 first time out, what chance would you give him of running a 1 next time? If you saw one that ran a 1 first time, even if you think there\'s a good chance he will bounce, at least you know he is one of the very, very few capable of running that fast-- like maybe 3 or 4 in the world.
JB,
I do not have the PP\'s for those horse or those days at Delaware but it seems strange to me that a 2yr old maiden runs a TG 1 and only wins by a neck. Who was the second horse in that maiden race and what did he run? Did he run again and win.What fig?
Mike
Second horse jumped 8 points to a 2, came back and won despite bouncing to a 7. Third horse ran an 8, next time out went forward to a 4. Nothing wrong with the race, and it fits with the day.
Ok, thanks
I\'m sure we\'ll be looking at all the performances in the spring.
Mike
These real fast horses like Old Fashioned never make it to the derby with a chance. Some horses develop much earlier than others like this one...by the time the derby comes around others catch up and the ones that ran this fast early are spent. I would love to be able to bet that this horse DOESN\'T make it to the derby. There are also questions about how good he really since he hasn\'t been pressured one ounce on the lead. Also, what magic potion did Larry Jones find over the past year??? Are his horses that good or is there something else???
>Nothing wrong with the race, and it fits with the day.
Jerry this race almost sounds Chilukki like. Did you consider giving the race a box? Could you post the rest of the day showing how it fits so well.
For gods sake you guys only gave Ghostzapper a 5 first time out while the Raggie boys 3\'d him.
Is Old Fashioned that much better than Ghostzapper?
Just watched the Remsen for the first time. I couldn\'t help but notice how much OF looked like Rockport Habor coming down the lane. Same colors, same face, same head and same speed. The 1 fig is pretty spectacular when you consider he rode the rail the whole way around there
Huh? The Chilukki race was the first race of the day, and as you recall it was dry unsealed for that one,wet unsealed for the second, and wet sealed for the rest. There were only two horses in her race that had ever started (once each). No way to do a figure.
The Delaware race came in the middle of the card, track fast all day, no weather.
There were four sprints on the day, I took off one point (made faster) one of them, took off two points from another, and ADDED half a point to the other two-- one of which was Old Fashioned\'s race.
Don\'t know what Ghostzapper has to do with this, and we make figures to compare performances, not horses. OF as a 2yo vs. GZ as an older horse is apples to oranges.
OF actually did not get quite as good a figure in the Remsen, though he probably was not all out, and we gave him an \"H?\". It\'s also good to hear his connections are going to give him a break-- maybe they learned something from Eight Belles.
And by the way, a first time starter on the same day as the Remsen got about the same figure OF did when he broke his maiden.
>The Chilukki race was the first race of the day, and as you recall it was dry unsealed for that one
Jerry it was damp sealed for that first one. That is why she set a track record going 4 and 1/2. The track speed was different for every race after that one and the race was loaded with baby 2YO filly first time starters. So how the Ragozin group came up with the ~6 they gave her and Beyer came up with the 109 he gave was legitmate to debate. Except none of the above really wanted to debate it. hmmmmmm.
But I quote you in regards to Len Friedmans figure making methodology for that number,
\"He made it up.\"
So I believe it was a legitimate question for the Old Fashioned maiden figure. Did you make it up? Sounds like there were other races to tie it to and there was very little variance in the track speed on that day, if any. So it looks like you guys did your homework before assigning the figure.
However a 2YO first time starter getting a 1. By 2010 they will all be negative numbers.............
We could go back and do a search of this site to see which it was, but the point was that it was sealed for one of the first two and not for the other, and started raining during the second. And yeah, we try to do our homework.
If I was going to \"make up\" a figure, why would I make it super fast?
>but the point was that it was sealed for one of the first two and not for the other
Jerry it was damp sealed for the first. Rain was supposed to be coming and the track crew tried to get ahead of it by dampening and sealing it tight. When they realized after the first they had it to tight they harrowed it. Then the rain came after the second.
The only reason I was there, was it was Derby week it was the first race and April Mayberry who was working for Baffert then had tipped out Chilukki to a friend of hers and mine. We bet her ok but Baffert was there and so was Pegram who bet a stack the size of a large brick.
Chilukki didn\'t pay like Ruffian first out but she sure won like her.
First time out Bold Forbes went off 35-1 at El Commandante in a 6 horse field. Won by 17. You would have thought somebody knew.