As i\'m sitting here looking over some of the past Derby runners ( for TG numbers of course ). My Question is aimed to JB and other TG users out there.
What KY Derby horses in the past had you all liked lines on?? or did cash on them??
Looking over them I liked a few most ran 2nd. FUSAUCHI PEGASUS-APTITUDE- I really liked MENIFEE line coming up to the Derby.
If you have time Jerry could you talk about some of these horses.1. THNDER GULCH i though he had a alright line, but the thing with him was he was just fast compare to others in the race. 2. Lil E. Tee is this horse the old line where a horse pops in a new big top and then gets one more number before he bounces? Sort of like CHARISMATIC did. 3. GO FOR GIN looked very good to me. 4.heres few horses i though had a explosive lines on them.SUNNYS HALO did make a 1 point move which i dont think was too explosive but still a good sign. ALYSHEBA was another. 5. I though SWALE and UNBRIDLED had good lines coming up to the Derby.
Thanks--------Kevin ( Louisville,ky )
Point Given had the best line going into the Derby of any horse in the history of TG sheets in my opinion.
The only knock on Point Given would be \"too much too soon\". A little like Holy Bull, another one who had the \'off\' Derby. That said, I used PG.
Last year I thought Invisible Ink was the best value play I\'ve ever seen in the Derby.
This year could be really interesting with Johannesburg and Essence of Dubai. How much money will they take? HP
I dont have the sheets for PG and I. INK or the Derby winner of last year. I\'ll have to wait till TG sells them this year and then i\'ll look at them. Yes, its like you hope for Johannesburg to win this race sunday, for his odds could be lower for the Derby.
will johannesburg come ? the signs are saying no....will see
wrt to Essence, I\'ve seen him quoted at 16/1 and 20/1 in England, where you\'d expect him to be a shorter price (because Godolphin commands more respect there) so I can\'t see him taking much money here. He\'ll probably be 20/1 or 25/1 in pool 3.
Well the current odds for Essence of Dubai in Pool 3 is 15-1 and since he\'s not running the odds may stay around that area. To me he\'s an underlay in pool 3 and I\'ll likely pass. I also believe he will be overbet come derby day. He\'ll be the only horse to have run and won a Group 2 going 1 1/4 miles against a big field that in my opinion had some talented horses running. From here on out I believe as a rule Godolphin horses will get overbet especially after how well they performed in last years Breeders Cup. P.S. Do not discount Ibn Al Haitham. There\'s your Godolphin overlay for the Derby.
As for Johannesburg, I can\'t believe he\'s 9-2 right now in Pool 3. A big underlay. The Gladness Stakes in my opinion should not be considered an easy race for him to win. He\'ll be giving 7LBS to older horses and if he runs well look out. He just may do the impossible come Derby day on Class alone. With this years group it\'s possible. I don\'t believe Aidan O\'Brien will send a short horse over here.
Philip,
The take on Thu/Fri is much lower than the week-end and the fact that the others are running may mean that people are holding on to their bets on them until then. I still say EOD drifts to 20/1. I remember Ibn al Haitham well - I backed him in Dubai at 25/1 after Crisford said he was working well, and he ran a blinder. But realistically he\'s still a maiden and his proximity (plus the US form of both Godolphin horses) places some doubts which have got to enter people\'s heads on derby day - though your 10f and G2 comment will be flying around too. Given your derby quality comments, might be worth a saver on some unexposed horses that may do a charismatic (azillion at 60/1 ?).
P.S. hope you enjoyed dubai world cup day (I remember your comments). I took 4/1 on a horse that had already proven himself in dubai, at the non-standard straight sprint, off lasix and under evening lights. hindsight is usually great, but for once I had foresight...
Philip Mandl wrote:
>
> Well the current odds for Essence of Dubai in Pool 3 is 15-1
> and since he\'s not running the odds may stay around that
> area. To me he\'s an underlay in pool 3 and I\'ll likely
> pass. I also believe he will be overbet come derby day. He\'ll
> be the only horse to have run and won a Group 2 going 1 1/4
> miles against a big field that in my opinion had some
> talented horses running. From here on out I believe as a
> rule Godolphin horses will get overbet especially after how
> well they performed in last years Breeders Cup. P.S. Do not
> discount Ibn Al Haitham. There\'s your Godolphin overlay for
> the Derby.
> As for Johannesburg, I can\'t believe he\'s 9-2 right now in
> Pool 3. A big underlay. The Gladness Stakes in my opinion
> should not be considered an easy race for him to win. He\'ll
> be giving 7LBS to older horses and if he runs well look out.
> He just may do the impossible come Derby day on Class alone.
> With this years group it\'s possible. I don\'t believe Aidan
> O\'Brien will send a short horse over here.