Mr. Brown:
Since it is the time of year when we will see 3-year-olds break through their 2-year-old tops, I would be interested to know what you consider the ideal pattern(s) for such horses in terms of a next-out bet.
If a horse with a good overall line makes a small move to surpass his 2-year-old top of, say, 12, and then returns to race after about a month off, how many points of improvement would you project?
In the cases of horses that break through their 2-year-old tops in their first or 2nd starts at 3, then go backward, what do you consider acceptable and unacceptable patterns for the intervening race? Using the above example, what if the horse with a 2-year-old top of 12 runs an 11 1/2, comes back on reasonable rest, then goes backward? Does it make a big difference to you if the intervening race is a 13 or 17 in terms of betting the horse the next time?
I would greatly appreciate your sharing any concepts that apply to these situations that we will be seeing in the upcoming months. Finally, I\'m sure you have a lot on your plate, but is there any chance of either a book or an extremely detailed, example-filled workbook/user\'s manual on Thoro-Graph patterns and concepts? (Your introductory materials are nicely done, but I\'m getting greedy . . . and it would be helpful to see an advanced version of some of the theories.)
Thanks for your time and high-quality product.
I can\'t resist adding my two cents which may be all of what I\'m about to say is worth.
Over the last couple of years at Gulfstream it seems that with 3-YO the bounce angle has been more of a bust angle. As in you will go busted expecting a good three old to bounce. There was a catch there because I said good 3-YO. Something not entirely obvious when the meet begins.
Let me give you an example from two years ago. A horse with only one previous start (strictly a gallop him around job with Patti Cooksey aboard--trust me that true) runs third in a November maiden race at CD and receives a 13. In January, this same horse comes back at Gulfstream in a seven furlong maiden race and romps by six lengths and receives a 7. He is now wheeled back on two weeks rest in a very tough 1X allowance race going 1 mile 1/16. He should bounce correct? He does\'nt he runs a 3. He then is run back on three weeks rest in a Grade I. Should he be played to bounce?
Next example, a horse with about ten races under his belt and a previous lifetime top of a 9 is entered in a 1X and receives a 1 after winning by ten lengths. He runs back in a $500,000.00 Stake and wins again receiving another 1. He is run back on four weeks rest in a Grade I. Should he be played to bounce?
The answer in both examples is NO.
Example one is Monarchos and he came back to win the Florida Derby with a 0.
Example two is War Emblem and he came back to win the Ky Derby with a 0.
I\'ll get to this when I can.
I remember loving Monarchos in those races - you must be using flawed numbers.
Actually I bet Monarchos all the up until the Derby and then got off of him because after the Wood he looked like a tired horse.
The numbers I used told me he was the fastest horse in each of the preceeding races and I knew those numbers were accurate and reliable.
Can you say \"Touch of the Blues\", Jerry Jr.
Sorry to hear that Silver Charm. Maybe it\'s just me, but I actually prefer my Derby horse to lose his last prep (Thunder Gulch also comes to mind) as it can makes for a great score.
Jerry, JR.
Jerry Jr. do you mean the Thunder Gulch that was selected by Thoro-Graph/Jerry Sr. in the Racing Form before the Derby as part of a three horse trifecta box that paid $2,000? The same horse that Friedman didn\'t come anywhere near keying in his article that appeared on the same page? That Thunder Gulch? And that was a THREE horse box JJ, not eight horses \"used lightly in the exotics.\" It\'s public record, in print, and anyone can look it up. Glad you had it. Heh. And what\'s with \"can makes for a great score.\" Who are you, Popeye?
Nice of you to call attention to one of Jerry Sr.\'s best published calls. With enemies like you, who needs friends?
How\'s Charlie by the way? As per your last post on this subject, I think the only way you\'d get him to pick up a check would be to staple it to his hand. HP
Obviously you did\'nt have Charismatic and War Emblem, two of the biggest bombs in Derby history, seeing as how both of those horses came into the Derby off wins.
Interesting that you mention Thunder Gulch because not only was that winner one of TGJB\'s greatest calls (better than Volponi), but he also gave out the triple. You remember Timber Country, and the Kenny McPeek trainee, Jerry Bailey ridden horse whose name slips my mind right now. Anyway that triple paid a $2500 and it was a cold three horse box TGJB gave out.
Also in case your were wondering where the name Silver Charm came from, well all I will say is that I made out pretty good on that years Derby. One last thing, he lost his Derby prep but did\'nt give me impression he was a tired horse and validated that with his Preakness win (at another nice price) and had a very good four year old campaign. As far as Monarchos goes, he never won another race after that Derby.
As you can see handicapping the Derby three year olds can be rather esoteric but at the same time quite rewarding.
HP,
You beat me to it!! I swear to God I was typing my previous post and got called into a meeting half-way through it then came back and finished.
Kudo\'s to you however for giving them a \"Touch of the Blues\".
Hiyo Silver,
I agreed a thousand percent with your read on Monarchos and that was an EXTREMELY painful race for me as I keyed Invisible Ink.
None of this will have any impact on JJr., but I had an idle moment.
Good luck at the windows. HP
Wow, the lackeys comes out likes piranha! Pass me the spinach. I never mentioned Poppa, but I guess you live for the guy, right? What a couple of wackos you are.
Silver Charm was another horse I loved in the Derby. Yes, you are right that I didn\'t have War Emblem or Charismatic. I suppose you had them all? LOL! I thought Charismatic looked like crap coming into the Derby. Guess I\'ll have to be satisfied with having a couple of $50 horses in recent years.
HP, Charlie to me he hopes you get some help. Your obsession with him is not healthy. I\'m having dinner with him tonight and I\'ll be sure to say hello.
HP, Charlie to-L-D me (before I get take to school again). Sorry, I just type so darn fast.
I\'m killing myself here...take-N
Popeye, in a weird kind of way I\'m developing some respect for you. You have lost every single fight (and there have been lots of them) to every single person you have gone to the mat with on every single subject over the last year or so, and you keep coming back for more. Can\'t figure out whether it\'s tenaciousness, willingness to keep going until you finally win one, or just unawareness of the savage beating you have been taking.
Say hello to Charlie (RAGOZIN EMPLOYEE) Nebel for me-- I\'m a big fan of his. Tell him he sounded great on that tape telling a prospective customer (our private eye) that we don\'t use observers to keep track of ground loss.
Jake called me a little while ago, and he was telling me what a great job you were doing promoting Ragozin\'s cause. He especially liked that you brought up, 2 months after the BC, that we picked Starine, and said she was a bet at 15-1 or more, but that she only paid $28. He said he didn\'t think I could stand much more bad publicity like that.
I don\'t mean to pile on (yeah right), but as far as Charismatic looking like crap it must be those flawed numbers again. On Thorograph he was given a 3 in his win in the Lexington Stakes which made him the CO-FASTEST horse in the Derby.
JJ,
I can only hope (for your sake) that wherever you\'re eating dinner tonight is NOT a buffet at a racetrack that requires passes because Charlie has a real problem understanding how that kind of thing works.
On the other hand, if it\'s a nice place and there\'s a wait, he could ask you for $10 (since you\'re a Ragozin customer and his pockets are sewn shut) so he could slip it to the headwaiter to get you a table.
As for leaving the tip or picking up the check, make sure the bathroom doesn\'t have a window or you\'re screwed.
Enjoy! HP
No Silver Charm, Charismatic looked fast off that one race at Keeneland (which I saw in person), but I played him to bounce based on his previous form. Did Poppa really have him so low in previous races that he didn\'t look like a bounce candidate? He looked like he was going to bounce to the moon on The Sheets. Not so with Monarchos and Thunder Gulch.
Poppa - the rules never apply to you, do they? Next time say 13-1 if that was what you really meant. You think I\'ve lost every disagreement here? Funny, I know I\'ve won every disagreement. I\'d catch you in a lie, then get banned the next day, ah the good old days, what fun. I actually believe you\'d claim you were popular if you were in prison just because everyone took a turn with you in the shower.
HP, please sign up at http://www.psychiatry.com. I\'m sure the person getting the biggest laugh out of your rants is Mr. Nebel, just knowing how much his presence on this earth aggravates you.
Jerry, JR.
I forgot to mention that the other thing Jake said was that he hopes you bring up Charlie as much as possible, because it is such good publicity for them. Anyway, you answered my question as to why you keep coming back for more.
P.S. Poppa, speaking of savage beatings, have you seen how badly the Ragozin Sheets are outselling your knock-off product at Gulfstream? One weekday I heard it was 27-1. I\'m ALMOST embarrassed for you. You should tell Secret Agent Billy G (since you say you don\'t have any field agents in FL) to buy a few copies to keep them from kicking you off the track like they did at Calder.
Jerry, JR.
Charlie doesn\'t aggravate me in the slightest! I just love that story. I hope I do make him laugh, and I\'m sure he laughed when he read your version of this, where he\'s a millionaire who needs to hit customers up for ten bucks to make sure they got passes to some crappy track buffet. Way to make the guy look good JJ! You can\'t make this stuff up. Have a great dinner and a fabulous weekend. HP
Another example of your twisted view of things Poppa - I didn\'t bring Charlie up, your lackey, HP, did. He brings him up all the time. He has a huge hard-on for the guy. Too funny!
Jerry, JR.
HP, I really think you\'ve lost it. What crappy track buffet passes are you talking about? I never said anything of the like. What color is the sky in your world?
Please let me know if I can make a donation to any foundation that can help someone like you.
Jerry, JR.
Charismatic\'s Hall of Fame trainer D.Wayne Lucas went to the windows and wagered on Friday and then went back again for more on Saturday. Lucky for him he\'s not a Ragozin user.
Silver Charm, it would be better to say, \"good thing he doesn\'t know how to read the sheets,\" unless you are saying he looked like he had a good pattern on the knock-off product????
There\'s no way that Charismatic\'s line looked playable on Derby day. Please tell me you are supporting another Graphie losing cause here. I\'d hate to think his product is that bad.
Jerry, JR.
Come to think of it had Wayne gotten up on Derby Day and heard Freidman\'s analysis he might have scratched the horse.
I think is where this string started when \'Student of the game\' posted
\"Mr. Brown:
Since it is the time of year when we will see 3-year-olds break through their 2-year-old tops, I would be interested to know what you consider the ideal pattern(s) for such horses in terms of a next-out bet.\"
Charismatic seems to be coming up repeatedly as a clear example. So how about someone take a pause from the flaming and offer an analysis of that line going into the Derby. Someone who actually has the sheets (either product) should take a shot at it.
Popeye,
Don\'t know what Ragozin sells on a daily basis, but here\'s what I do know:
1- There has been no day that Gulfstream ran where we have sold less than 4 sets of TG.
2- As it happens we were told what Ragozin sold yesterday, and he outsold us by one set.
3- Let me guess-- the guy you heard it from was Charlie, the same guy we caught on tape lying about us, and who got thrown off track for selling the passes he was supposed to give away. Right?
Glad you reminded me-- I forgot another thing Jake said (must be getting old). He didn\'t see how you could think Goldsmith was a field agent since all he does for us is deliver, check returns and give out stuff at seminars in exchange for free sheets, but if it helped you make your case he would remove the \"on-track reps\" section (including phone numbers) from the Ragozin site.
Also, thanks for sharing your prison fantasy.
Silver Charm, are you still saying Charismatic had a good pattern on TG? What a hoot!
Poppa Jer, you are the best. Four sets? Sounds like you are really tearing it up at Gulstream. How can you call Charlie a Field Agent and Billy G not? Because Ragozin can afford to pay him? You know what, I realize you are probably just upset at the way Guppie\'s Secret ran yesterday so I\'m going to try to be more understanding.
Jerry, JR.
1- I said 4 was the LEAST we had sold.
2- Charlie is a field agent because he actively works for Ragozin in the field, recruiting, lying, etc. Jake is hoping you give me a chance to say that several more times, but Friedman is on record as saying it\'s okay-- he told me he doesn\'t care if Charlie lies about me.
3- I\'ve been looking at the year-end totals, so I\'m actually in a pretty good mood-- looks like Ragozin is now only outselling us about3/2 in number of sets, a little more in total revenue, assuming he still is doing what he was when Paul was there (which he probably is not, since we took away a lot of customers with the simulcast books, and an awful lot of \"escapees\" are buying on-line). For example, we sold 3 times as many sets of GP on-line yesterday as Ragozin sold at the track.
4- But you are absolutely right about one thing-- Florida is Ragozin territory. Think it has anything to do with Charlie telling customers we don\'t use live ground, among other things? Or you telling people they outsell us 27-1?
Hey, is anyone out there interested in analysing that pattern? Any pattern?
I\'m going to get to the question Mart asked about 3 year olds, hopefully tomorrow.
Well Poppa, I see I have you on the run and I\'m afraid if I push too hard you\'ll have a Guppie\'s Secret breakdown so I\'ll take it easy on you.
According to you and HyPocrite, Charlie doesn\'t even go to the track so your cries of unfairness in the field don\'t seem to hold much water. I stand by my previous statement that I have never discussed your knock-off at the track with anyone - truthfully I have never seen anyone using your product. Meanwhile I see The Sheets everywhere.
Ragozin outselling you 27-1 came from someone that had just been in the Admissions department and those were the early returns for that day (looks like you sold three more to some poor guy). I\'m sure the total figure for the meet is much closer to three or 4-1 and revenue is much higher since you are selling them at a cheaper price.
I am sorry you can\'t afford to pay Billy G. I think Ragozin\'s overwhelming success in Florida has more to do with a superior product than anything. Players are willing to pay more for a better product.
Thanks for sharing your fantasy with me about Jake calling you, as if...
Popeye,
Jake just called to see if I would chip in to have you whacked. I told him no way, you were a valuable asset, and I would do anything in my power to protect you. Then he said there are guys in his office who think you are a fictional character-- that I made you up to use as a straw man (look it up). I told him I\'m not that good a writer.
He said his worst nightmare was other Ragozin guys jumping in on your side, so that not just one Ragozin guy would look like an idiot, but all Ragozin guys. I told him I wish, but that in all your posts here no one had ever taken your side on anything (not true of other Ragozin guys who have posted here), and I doubted anyone ever would-- since you are on record over and over again defending a guy who was caught on tape lying about us, not even the most die-hard Ragozin guy would ever take you seriously. Defend a guy with no credibility, you end up with no credibility-- making it impossible to win an arguement. That\'s why the Ragozin office didn\'t defend Charlie when we brought what he was doing to light.
But don\'t let that stop you. Maybe your next post will be the big one...
Well Poppa, it looks like this discussion has come to an end. Whenever you are beaten, you start up with the lies and fantasies. How funny that you call others liar when your entire business and personal life is built on lies. You are still fantasizing about conversations with the Ragozin office? Your feelings of inadequacy are really quite pathetic.
Others defending me? Why would they defend me when I put you in your place EVERY time? You on the other hand need a couple of employees to rush to your side like Balthasar (look it up). Best of luck with your circle jerk and I hope things pick up for Guppie\'s Secret.
Jerry, JR!!
HEY TGJB, THIS IS THE LINK I WAS REFERRING TO. JUST INCASE YOU CAN\'T KEEP TRACK OF YOUR LIES.
WAKE UP HP, YOU ALWAYS SEEM TO CHIME IN WITH YOUR WIT-LESS COMMENTS ANYTIME SOMEONE WRITES SOMETHING YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT.
Bobby--
Never overestimate the intelligence of a Raggie. So you (and Popeye) believe I was seriously saying that Jake and I get on the phone and chat about the strategy and customers of our two competing orginizations, and that Jake asked me if I wanted to chip in to have a hit man go after Jim. Definitely a conversation I would discuss in public.
Here\'s a news flash-- you know all those stories that begin \"Guy walks into a bar\"? THEY\'RE NOT TRUE-- there\'s no real guy walking into a bar.
I\'m guessing that Mark Twain\'s story about the champion jumping frog, which I\'ve referenced on this site before, wasn\'t true either-- that Twain made it up to illustrate a point.
Sort of like me making up an obviously fictional conversation with Jake to illustrate that WHEN RAGGIES COME ONTO THIS SITE AND ACT STUPID IT REFLECTS BADLY ON ALL RAGOZIN CUSTOMERS, AND ULTIMATELY ON THE RAGOZIN OPERATION ITSELF.
By the way, as far as we can tell, you have no on-line account with us, so the virus didn\'t cost us your business. But maybe your story was not meant to be taken seriously either. Right?