Since I\'ve done pretty well with this election cycle so far, I\'ll take a shot at the finish line. I think the line I gave Jimbo a few weeks ago is about right (Obama minus 5 in the general), if anything I think it will be a point or two less than that. I think the polls are misleading, that business about 14% undecided last week was B.S.-- it\'s almost impossible for that many people to be undecided with candidates so different, so most just didn\'t want to tell a pollster who they were voting for, and some of those are racists. I think McCain wil win most of the \"battleground states\", Obama ends up with around 300 in the electoral college. If McCain gets Pennsylvania-- which is not impossible-- it\'s going to be a late night.
At least at intrade, Obama in PA is trading at a contract of $88-$91. It doesn\'t look like a terribly deep market, but nonetheless, while McCain getting PA may not be impossible, it doesn\'t appear likely. Is there a good over/under out there on the margin national?
What odds are you offering on a McCain win? It could happen. Agree with you that it will be closer than the polls show. The republican candidate has run better in the actual election than the polls the last two elections and there was no race factor there. THis skew could be a point or two more (sad state on the country, but unfortunately it is likely that race will play a role in the votes of some people).
I have taken the 7-1 offered on McCain right now. He likely won\'t win, but I give him in a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 shot. He will win most states that are showing now as \"close\", as you suggested. If he carries Florida and Pennsylvania, he has an outside shot.
Don\'t disagree with any of that. Any states where Obama is already at 50 he should take, any others are seriously in doubt.
America\'s Line has Obama looking like CIGAR at 1/12 and McCain coming in at 12-1. They even offer exotics and props!
http://www.americasline.com/presidentialodds.aspx
TGJB,
There is money to be made off the opinion that the race will be close. Either I am as wrong about this election as I was about the Breeders CUp on Pro-Ride, or the betting sites are handicapping this wrong.
I think that although Obama will likely win, both Ohio and Florida will go McCain, as will North Carolina.
At WSEX.COM, Obama is 2-9 in Ohio, 1-3 in Florida and 2-3 in North Carolina. He is pickem in Missour. I don\'t think he wins any of those states.
Buck,
Lots of talk at the room last night on the election.
The bigger players all seem to think it won\'t be close. They have an interest in a Mccain victory, but were pessimistic about it. Some were making side bets on the margin of victory. Over/Under was at about 320 Electoral, some thought it would be as high as 350.
Personally, I think it will be closer than that.
I think the racist vote will just about even out on the two sides.
Whoever wins, it\'s 1000 to one that this scenario could only happen in the USA.
We all deserve a high five for how far we\'ve come in the last 60 years.
Hell, in the last four.
Two cents...IMHO, McCain would\'ve been better off running as an Independent. I don\'t think ANY Republican could win this year, short of Abe Lincoln. I can\'t blame McCain for losing. It\'s a referendum on Bush, who is easily the most reviled President of recent times. Between the war and the economy, I don\'t think there\'s a straw for the GOP to clutch...
Obama will win and win fairly easily. He has over 500+ people working the state of Florida to McCains 90. There are similar numbers elsewhere in other key states.
I voted for McCain but when Obama wins I will support him. This country has a lot of problems that need solving. Obama will not raise your taxed in the first two years but will in the next two.
The Bush bashing needs to stop. He is a good man from a good family who has made mistakes. But he inherited a recession of his own, the dot.com bubble burst and 9/11. The war was necessary but they stayed in there way to long and in the last two elections it has cost the Republicans the control they spent 20 years building.
It may be another 20 before they get it back......
So what you have just said is that Obama is buying the election.
He is more organized has a bigger team and network.
The Republicans did the same thing in 2004 in Florida when they making certain there would not be another 2000 recount.
Without the recent economic collapse this potentially could have been another allnighter election.
Obama has been campaigning hard for two solid years. Which at least proves he can get the distance.
Why does the Bush bashing have to stop? This isn\'t the place for it but since the boss has opened a political thread...have you seen what\'s happened to this country in the last eight years? Did you really say Bush is a good man (highly debatable unless you equate \"religious\" with \"good\", and I\'ll refer you to Bin Laden if you do) from a good family? Try \"he\'s in the top five worst presidents ever\" instead. I actually feel bad for McCain because he\'s paying the price for the last eight years, and after the way Bush treated him in 2000 it\'s a shame that he\'s screwing him again.
Hard to believe some here thought McCain was more than a 20-1 shot to pull off a miracle.
Mismatch from day 1
With all the baggage Obama came with, it\'s a disgrace none of it was considered by the \'voters\', such as they are.
Let\'s hope he doesn\'t do too much damage. On the other hand, how much worse can he be? I for one don\'t want to find out.
HP-- agree totally, and I will go further. This election was about 8 years of new voters since 2000 who have cable and are intnet savvy and can fact check, and only know the Republican Party as what Bush and Rove have turned them into, which is godawful (I could go into detail, but I don\'t want this board to spin out of control).
There will be 4 years of new, smart voters every national election going forward, and if the Republicans don\'t stop pandering to the lowest common denominator with 3 word slogans (War on Terror, Stay the Course, etc.) and start treating the voters with intellectual respect, they will become a local party, and won\'t win the Presidency for the forseeable future, no matter what the Democrats do. They need to fundamentally change, and not force candidates to take positions to get the nomination that give them no chance in the general election.
Anyway--
They were going crazy in the West Village last night, starting about 8:30, all kinds of young kids whooping it up in the streets until 2:00 a.m. After Obama spoke I went over to this bar in my heighborhood, there are a couple of black guys who work the door I\'m friendly with, and a 70 year old black bartender from New Orleans, I wanted to see what he had to say. This place is basically the bar from Star Wars, Bosnian AND Croat owned, Isrealis, everything from everywhere,probably the hottest bar in NY right now. The West Village usually sucks for bars, big break that this ocurred 3 blocks from home for me.
So I\'m standing there and this Irish (from Ireland) woman orders a drink next to me, she\'s maybe 5\'4, 170. She says she\'s so happy she can\'t contain herself (it was like New Year\'s Eve in there). I say, so don\'t.
So she starts jumping up and down, lands with her heel on my big toe.
I let out a howl. She calls me a big pussy, and buys me a drink to make up for it.
I say listen, don\'t jump anymore. She says I can\'t, it\'s too expensive.
\"So I\'m standing there and this Irish (from Ireland) woman orders a drink next to me, she\'s maybe 5\'4, 170.\"
JB,
...guess you gave her a good number,carrying all that weight!
Mike
Well just what the board needed an insult the Republicans post.
I wondered where Mom went last night. Sorry.
One thing - did you see McCain\'s speech? Had he run a campaign where he spoke like that (and also not nominated Paleo-in), I think it would have been much closer last night. I have a feeling that the old Maverick may wind up forever wondering why he never really left the reservation (SC in \'00; not running with Kerry in \'04; running as a fake, hard-right nativist this year). When it really mattered, he wasn\'t really true to himself. Or the country.
Tmon-- under ordinary circumstances (meaning before the last 8 years) I would consider myself a Libertarian Republican, now I\'m just a Libertarian. McCain in 2000 was the best candidate for president I have ever seen, bar none, I would have loved to have had a chance to vote for THAT guy. Too bad he sold his soul.
Magic-- I agree he would have done better, but really the positions he took (was forced to) to get the nomination meant the die was cast before the general, I think. But bringing on Rove\'s guys was a bad idea.
Thank mom for the drink.
My most overwhelming impression during this campaign was not related to politics. During the last debate I was watching McCain closely...and based on my observation I didn\'t think he was physically up to it, being President.
I remember age coming up with Reagan. I thought Reagan looked old, but able to handle the job. I believe he released his medical records too.
I felt STRONGLY watching McCain during the debate that he would not hold up well under the stress of being President. President McCain I could live with. President Palin is something else again. Anyone who works \"God\'s Will\" into their answers on a regular basis is not someone I want in charge.
Not affiliated with either political party... I H8 Dems and GOP alike. HP
Don\'t get me started about Palin. The idea of giving the nuclear codes to someone who believes the End Of Days will come in their lifetime would be laughable if it wasn\'t so damn scary.
But speaking of medical records, she finally released hers to the press at 9:00 Monday night. The imagination runs wild, but we\'ll keep it off here.
Oh and when did Biden release his brain scans? And when did Obama release his complete medical records instead of just his regular Doctor telling the press that Obama was in good health
Jerry,
Agree with your Libertarian comment and that reminds me of a funny political story.
In 1992 (Clinton v. Bush I) the Libertarian candidate for President was named Andre Marrou and he was scheduled to speak on tv near election day. So I sit my two daughters (one in elementary and the other in middle school) down to watch. He finishes his ten point program (number one being abolish the IRS) and they walk away and say thanks Dad.
A couple of days later the younger one has a visit from a staff person from the local congressman\'s office in school. During discussion the staff person says \"class now I\'m sure you have all heard of the Republicans and Democrats but has anyone ever heard of another political party in this country?\" My daughter, the brown nose, just about jumps out of her skin raising her hand but finally the teacher lets her speak and without taking a breath she says I\'ve heard of the Libertarian Party their presidential candidate is Andre Marrou, he\'s going to legalize drugs and my dad\'s going to vote for him!!!
When I heard this story I had the following two comments; (1) I never said I was going to vote for him and (2) I guess that explains why the PTA was marching with protest signs in front of the house.
That\'s pretty funny.
I voted for Bob Barr. He was tougher on Bush\'s B.S. than Obama, and I figured Obama could probably carry NY without me.
They all jerked people around, and you know what McCain did, I don\'t have to go into it here. But at least the other three released something.
Palin will land a $100 million contract from Fox, and she\'ll be good. She\'ll be the only one doing well in this economy.
Analizethis,
Always enjoy stories with kids misstatements. The subject of horse racing came up in my son\'s 8th grade class. He told the teacher his Dad watched a lot of races on his home computer, and could always be heard chanting, C\'mon baby, C\'mon baby, Oh #&$%! Guess that tells you what kind of handicapper I am!