Figures are now up in ROTW for the BC races and other races on SA 10/24-25, all 242 pages of them.
We also decided to do a study of the numbers of the Europeans who ran in the BC. We\'re going to do a broader study (actual several ones, including no lasix there/no lasix here) on the entire data base, but this is pretty interesting.
We are going to leave the BC data w/TG final figures up for a while. There will not be a ROTW this week. We\'ll return with a new one next weekend.
no edge in either 12f race, and that was disappointing.
Michael,
Can you explain? don\'t understand your comment.
Jerry,
80% paired or ran a new top. Which is high. Not exactly sure how high. What do you think that is telling you, other than the obvious \"the Euros ran well\" on the poly and that the turf form carried well to poly. (that second point is pretty important)
Given the large number of young horses and first lasix\'s (?)-- 4 of which are not marked, the O\'Briens-- I think it looks right. We\'re going to see more when we do a larger study of all the Europeans that ran here over a long period.
Regardless, they can\'t be off more than a point under any circumstances. And if you did make those Euro figures a point faster, that study would be really skewed the other way-- a very high percentage of horses would get off races. With grass stake horses and so many young ones, my guess is that the breakout would be about the same with American horses. We\'ll do that as a control when we do the big study.
I didn\'t really break it down, but several 2yos ran new tops, especially in the grass races, I don\'t know what the relative percentages American/Euro were (and again, there\'s lasix). Of those 4 and up, the only two that ran new tops were the Marathon winner (first lasix, and he ran better than he did in Europe in anybody\'s estimation), and Eagle Mountain, who was second time 4yo following what was obviously a prep at a distance too short for him.
And yeah, it played like grass.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Michael,
>
> Can you explain? don\'t understand your comment.
no edge in having the TG figures. you don\'t even consider the Marathon winner, and Jerry went four deep in the Turf and did not mention the top two finishers. big new tops for all three.
Interesting that most of the biggest jump ups came on turf. Except for Muhannak. Need to see more to say anything where I could make a bigger fool of myself...
Some other observations, perhaps borne out by the Figs--
1) The European raced/ trained horse is superior
2) The European horsemen/women are superior
3) The European horses were not coping with steroid withdrawal (see Curlin,
Kip D) (beyond surface issues, I would be interested to hear someone
superimpose Curlin\'s final 3 races against the stages of his steroid
withdrawal)
In support of 1)- 3) above:
Juvie Turf: Euros 1-2, drawing away from field
Turf Mile: Euro 3YO filly draws away from arguably America\'s best miler
Turf Classic: American turfers no factor
Classic: Euros 1-2 and drawing off
What does it all mean?
(Andre Fabre has a coupled first time NA entry in tomorrows 12f LI Hcp at Aqu).
More Euro dominance or a bet against on a firm tight turned course?
BC Educational Experience: Princess Haya of Jordan is King Hussein\'s daughter,
not his widow as I thought. She is married to Sheik Mo. According to the website
of the Royal Family, this talented award winning equestrienne is Sheik
Mo\'s \"junior\" wife. Sheik Mo also has a \"senior\" wife. These guys think of
everything.
Richie--
1-- the European grass horses were superior to American dirt horses over Pro-Ride.
2-- just in terms of figures, it\'s debatable turf to turf. There were only two American horses in this year\'s Turf that had ever run fast enough to be considered top quality HERE, and both were coming off lifetime tops-- we were weak this year.
I won\'t argue with you about the European trainer\'s ability to train up to a specific target and get a top effort.
I\'m not sure if looking at this makes me feel better or worse.
Conduit develops 6 points in 90 days to beat one of my double keys who paired the winners fig and moved forward only two points from a top established 12 months before.
Go Between gets a TU and runs a 2 after a steady diet of 0\'s which ended up being the winning fig in the Classic.
Midnight Lute has a pair of Neg 7\'s on dirt and Neg 5 on Synthetic. Both have gotta be the alltime records so what does that say about him.
Looks like somebody spent $30M on the wrong horse with the bad feet.........
I follow UK racing daily and quite often you find trainers winning the same race 3 out 5 years or 5 out of 7 years.
You\'ll be \"happy\" to know that SIR MICHAEL STOUTE stable had a slow summer and started getting hot a few weeks before the Breeders Cup. He\'s one of the best trainers in the UK. and this year overall he\'s at a 20% winning rate.
Tmon,
Sounds similar to Woody Stephens and his 5 pack at Big Sandy.
Respectfully,
mjs
I\'ll be filing this little bon mot away for next year. Thanks!
Jerry,
You are the man with the database, but I have to tell you, I would be really really surprised if what you are saying about the american horses as the control group is true. I don\'t think 80% pair or run tops in the BC. (maybe I am missing your point, but if that is your point, I can\'t believe that to be true, so I look forward to the large study)
1 - SA is a firm tight turned course, isn\'t it?
2 - One wife is enough.
Anybody notice the figure this horse ran while finishing 8th? He matched the winner who everybody raved about and ran faster than a lot of the horses that finished ahead of him. I need to see a replay before passing judgement, but it looks like Baze may have butchered this one.
HP:
Yes to both.
The more I look, the Long Island is a good betting race.
The Fabre entry first time NA. A filly who was a Big Bombowitz put over
in the ROTW from a few weeks ago. A NYB slow rat who in her last 2 starts
ran against the eventual BC FM 1-2 finishers...
...and a filly who is arguably second fastest in the race off of her TGs who
should like the distance and be double digit odds.
At first glance it seems like a lot more North American runners X\'d on the turf ( than did their European counterparts ) - Not exactly sure of the percentages but imo it\'s more than just happenstance or coincidence ...
Jimbo-- I\'m talking about turf stake horses only, all ages, including 2yos. In this case a third of the grass races were for 2yos (more than usual) and a lot of the Europeans were first lasix. My guess is that it would come up about 60-65% with American stake horses if a third were 2yos, slightly lower with a normal age distribution. Lots of paired tops on grass.
JB,
For the past several years, I\'ve conducted a post BC analysis similar to this one on eurorunners, but I include additional data.
For example, if you look at the animals who ran their last race in Great Britain you find the following: 13 horses with 7 new tops and 6 paired. This year was very reminiscent of past years;
Those 8 horses with their previous out in France included 6 who paired, 1 which was off and 1 x;
Those 4 horses with their previous out in Ireland included 1 new top, 2 which were off and 1 x;
The 2 animals from Ireland (Pursuit of Glory and Paddy The Pro) ran very poorly on the move from Dundalk (Ire) Polytrack to Pro Ride. However, Muhannak won nicely making the same move, the clear indicator of Chester House as an outstanding Pro Ride sire was probably the main reason;
Of the 9 animals on your eurorunner sheet, 7 of them 77.7% came in after having their previous race in Great Britain, at any rate, 13 runners 7 new tops and 6 that paired is outstanding;
There are 17 horses on your eurorunner sheet, of those horses moving turf to turf (regardless of country) they showed 5 with new top, 9 that paired, 2 which were off, and 1 with an x;
I looked at the horses that had a previous out in October and ran back abut 3 weeks later and came up with 16 horses, 5 with a new top, 8 that paired, 3 which were off;
Of the 11 horses with their last out being in either September or coming off a layoff, 5 had a new top, 4 paired, and there were 2 x\'s;
At any rate, I\'m continuing to break this down to run a comparison to prior years which I\'ve done annually.
Try it with first lasix. Keep in mind it\'s not marked on the Aidan O\'Brien horses.
My Saturday program shows US Ranger and Henrythenavigator running WITH Lasix;
Westphalia, Soldier of Fortune, Red Rock Canyon and Duke of Marmalade running WITHOUT Lasix.
US Ranger going Turf to Turf with Lasix finished off;
Westphalia going Turf to Turf with Lasix paired;
Soldier of Fortune and Red Rock Canyon Turf to Turf both paired;
Duke of Marmalade moving Turf to Pro Ride paired.
Henrythenavigator moving Turf to Pro Ride with Lasix a new top.
Six (6) horses, 1 new top, 4 paired and 1 off.
Obviously the only horse with a new top was Henry moving Turf to Pro Ride.
That\'s about it. I found the bloodlines to be much more compelling in the run up to the Cup.
It was announced after the races had been run that the O\'Brien horses (the 4 you mentioned) had in fact been treated with lasix. He was fined only $2,500, and the purse money was NOT redistributed.
That\'s unconscionable by the track. At the very MINIMUM the on-site crowd as well as the simulcast people should have been alerted through screen streamers, live announcements, etc. No wonder people continue to flock away from this sport.
I\'m sure I speak for lots of people when I say I consider 1st Lasix, and even a first time equipment change to really impact how I might play a race.
What would the reaction have been had 2-3 of these horses won and then people found out?
To be honest, the Euro trainers that I have much regard for when they are adding the juice is Gosden, Stack, Deroyer-Dupree, BJ Meehan, Noseda, and even Saaed Bin Suroor. These are the guys who have really lit it up on occassion. My experience with O\'Brien has been the Lasix hasn\'t greatly improved his animals, but he has such great stock, he\'s always dangerous.
One more time JB, I\'m gonna try to talk you into separating the artificial surfaces. I\'m convinced, the FIRST company to do so will CONTROL a huge percentage of the data being purchased in this industry. The FIRST company to do this will be operating with a huge advantage. As outstanding as most of your
data is, you could make it even better. My apologies again.
We\'ve been waiting until there is a large enough sampling, we might do something over the winter. It will be for trainers and sires only, not enough room for that with siblings.
TGJB Wrote:
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> It was announced after the races had been run that
> the O\'Brien horses (the 4 you mentioned) had in
> fact been treated with lasix. He was fined only
> $2,500, and the purse money was NOT redistributed.
This seems completely insane to me and why hasn\'t this been more widely reported or grasped upon? Where is Crist on this? I would assume that if a horse runs on medication different than reported in the program or publicly announced at the track prior to the race, the horse is DQ\'ed and the purse money redistributed. What happens at California tracks if a horse runs on Lasix when it is reported it is not running on Lasix? I would sure hope DQ. What happens if the horse runs on a dosage of Bute that is higher than the permissible level? Why is this different?
To me, if what TGJB is reporting is true, then this is a complete outrage. If O\'Brien is guilty of this (running his horses on Lasix but not telling the proper authorities beforehand) then his fine should be a ton worse than such a wrist slapping. To me, if O\'Brien did this, it is far worse than what Biancone was forced to miss a Breeders\' Cup for. I would say the proper response should be that purse money is redistributed AND O\'Brien cannot enter any horses in next year\'s Breeder\'s Cup.
If people think this behavior is okay, what stops him year after year in the future bringing horses over, not saying anything and then keeping inside who is getting lasix and who is not? Don\'t people agree that lasix treatment is valuable and important information that the bettors are entitled to? What stops any trainer from keeping to himself the first lasix information on all his horses? If the rule is in fact like this, what makes anybody think they are going to get accurate first lasix information on any foreign horse coming to the U.S.?
So Cal,
It was known, but not widely reported in the normal official manner. I knew it but don\'t recall if it was TVG or a friend calling to tell me.
Forgetting Crist for a moment, where is the NTRA empty suit Wal-dope? The players champion? Again, we see that the clueless empty suits do not realize the amount of money being wagered on a \"first time lasix\" user.Salt of the earth gambling/racing stuff is so far from their minds/knowledge that it\'s painful.
The fines should been stiffer and all who had a hand in this not being officially reported should at least have to defend why they should not be termi nated from their jobs.
Mike
Not reporting to the gambling public first-time lasix use should result in heads rolling all along the line.
This incident should produce a huge scream of protest and outrage from the Horseplayers Association and public handicappers.
Now is the time for American horseplayers to DEMAND complete accuracy and timely publication of:
- Drug reporting (all drugs on-off: lasix, adjunct, NSAID being used on race day)
- Equipment changes (blinkers, winkers, on or off; bandages on or off; bitting changes)
- Shoe changes, shoe characteristics.
- Style of riding - race tactics changes (\"trainer announces Speedy will be ridden more forward, or more under cover, if possible this race\")
Handicappers need this information far, far more than the popular but reality-based non-issue of \"steroids on or off\".
\"Style of riding - race tactics changes (\"trainer announces Speedy will be ridden more forward, or more under cover, if possible this race\")
Sight,
Can\'t even get these a--holes to report the traditional stuff, can you imagine hearing over the Racetracks Public Address System:
\"Number five is a dead send today\"
Mike
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It was announced after the races had been run that
> the O\'Brien horses (the 4 you mentioned) had in
> fact been treated with lasix. He was fined only
> $2,500, and the purse money was NOT redistributed.
Is anyone REALLY surprised by this? Seems like S.O.P. to me by the corporate stiffs who manage the game.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Style of riding - race tactics changes (\"trainer
> announces Speedy will be ridden more forward, or
> more under cover, if possible this race\")
>
>
> Sight,
>
> Can\'t even get these a--holes to report the
> traditional stuff, can you imagine hearing over
> the Racetracks Public Address System:
>
> \"Number five is a dead send today\"
>
>
>
> Mike
Mike,
That is LOL funny.
I wonder how many of O\'Brien\'s people made fat wagers on these horses running on Lasix?? Racing pubs should be up in arms over this. The fact that this was basically swept under the rug with, lets face it, pretty much no penalty is absurd.
What does the NFL do when coaches don\'t give acuarate injury information? They penalize them harshly. Its why Shanahan (the coach, not our Shanahan) reports every hangnail to the league. These guys get hit hard. And we all know why....to keep the gamblers informed.
To not have Lasix users reported to the gambling public, and then when failing to do so receive no penalty (2500 bucks isn\'t a penalty), is as ridiculous as an NFL team not gaining even 1 first down in a half of football. That never happens, right??
How about this one. Porte Bonheur, a horse I made a nice score on in a stake at Saratoga, runs terrible in the Gallant Bloom, then comes back to win a stake at Woodbine this week. The trainer says AFTER the win, that she had a legitimate excuse in the Gallant Bloom, as she came out of the race with a bone bruise. Wouldn\'t you have liked to have that information BEFORE the Woodbine race?
...not to mention accurate lifetime stats for grooms, exercise riders and maybe
even hotwalkers...
Very big in California and some of the other venues where there are mechanical
hot walkers would be the always dangerous switch from mechanical to human
hotwalker...
I\'ve been advocating as long as I have been posting here that all equipment
changes-- bit/bridle/tongue tie/blinker cup changes/ bandages/patches be
reported. Ever seen a harness program? Why not the same level of detail for the
throughbred game?
Sight says \"American horseplayers should DEMAND....!!\"
Can victims and hostages make DEMANDS??
All the Horseplayers Association seems to have accomplished is creating a logo
which looks an awful lot like the Montreal Canadiens \"Les Habitants\" logo. At
least the \"Horseplayer is the Hero\" notion is no longer being tossed about.
Want to get racing\'s attention? If you are a New York area racing fan send a
letter to Charles Hayward-- \"Dear Chuck: Racing in New York under
the \"Camporegime\" (a little organized crime play on words) is pretty much
unplayable. I will be taking a walk with my wife this Saturday instead of
playing the races. When Fair Grounds opens, I will no longer play NYRA racing
unless your organization begins to restore the quality of New York racing which
as recently as 15 years ago was the best in the US.\"
Any truth to the rumor that due to the excessive amount of serious knee and
ankle injuries in the NFL this year that the next 2 Super Bowls will be played
on Miami Beach? (Not in Miami Beach, ON Miami Beach). Not the regular season
games, just the biggest game.
Racing\'s broke and broken. Hopefully later in the day we will see how ready
America is to embrace diversity, and we can call Sheik-a-Mo in to fix Racing.
He can start with NYRA.
SC Man,
Just another slap in the face to the American horseplayer.
They swept the Gary Steven\'s buzzer incident in the 1995 Derby under the rug too. What makes you think an industry that has been treating its employees like slaves since 1875 will change now?
Jerry:
I don\'t think you can quantify this, but isn\'t much of what we are seeing have to do with the fact that (in general) the artificial tracks playing like turf, AND America\'s #1 export (horses)?? So many are bought up and exported....STILL kicking myself over throwing out Raven by convincing myself he couldn\'t get the distance, and Henry for looking so washed out....Argh!!!
The second part of that will be reflected in the figures they run in Europe.
speaking of washed out horses....
I have a question for the board about horses that are \"washed out\" in the paddock and the post parade.
I used to automatically throw these horses out but several instances lately have led me to rethink this with the most notable being Da\'Tara in the Belmont.
When is a washed out horse a throw out and when is it ok to leave them in?
One obvious answer is that when a horse always gets washy, that\'s not as big of a deal as a \"first time washy\" but if we haven\'t seen a horse run before, that\'s tough to know.
Thoughts?
This is an interesting (?) subject. I read that book years ago \"The Body Language of Horses.\" I believe it\'s by Bonnie Ledbetter. I rode horses every summer in my teenage years, and I also spent a few months taking care of horses once upon a time (my friend\'s dad raised horses in his backyard stable in Florida - one of them finished second in a minor stake at Calder).
Despite reading the book and my experience around horses, I have never been able to translate it into successful handicapping. Once in awhile I will see a horse and think \"no way, not today,\" and I\'m right...but for me it\'s a 50/50 proposition. MANY times I see things I was taught were negative signs and the horse comes romping home. I would be curious to hear from anyone who really thought their skills were honed in this area.
In terms of \"washing out,\" in my experience, if it\'s hot out, and they look washed out, that might not be the end of the world. Now if it\'s not that hot out and they look washed out, that\'s another story. As far as BC day goes, it was hot, and it must\'ve been even hotter on the track, so I\'m not sure how much \"washing out\" would tell you... They only have to run for about a minute and a half. I don\'t know how much you can peg to sweating or not sweating under those circumstances.
Tough game!
HP
Larry Colmus and Trevor Denman announced several times that the O\'Brien horses would have Lasix, including in the first announcement of changes at about 8:30 or 9 Pacific time. The big question would be why that information wasn\'t relayed in the simulcast feed.
Ohlo Wrote:
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> Larry Colmus and Trevor Denman announced several
> times that the O\'Brien horses would have Lasix,
> including in the first announcement of changes at
> about 8:30 or 9 Pacific time. The big question
> would be why that information wasn\'t relayed in
> the simulcast feed.
I was at the track. They may have said it, but its not easy to hear anything over a PA at the track. Do you know if that information was running on the screens?
Aside from that, I don\'t think he woke up that morning and thought..\"hey, I think I\'ll try Lasix today\".
However you look at it, there\'s no excuse.
Washing out with that nervous hyper demeanor is disastrous,imo. Cov said what several horsemen have told me about body language/sweating, i.e if thats the way he always looks pre-race, no big deal.I have been told that a horse that does not have a little glistening sweat on a hot day is a bad sign.
Personally,I like them looking alert, on their toes a bit, not comatose with their heads down and their tails between their legs.Several guys in NY use body language as the main factor in gambling.
Sight,
Can you shed any light in a general sense of good/bad signs re body language?
Mike
I believe he called the stewards on Friday, said he forgot to declare it at entry. For what that\'s worth
Miff,
What you cite is the conventional wisdom. \"Body Language\" details it. It\'s a good book. I can\'t tell you how many times I\'ve seen the horse look great, bang-up on figures, and not lift a hoof. In my limited experience riding, it\'s not that hard to get them to into that \"I just don\'t care\" walk. You can cool them out. I would imagine real jockeys can do it too. It\'s really tricky...
I was at the Delaware Park Simulcast, and they did announce all the 1st lasix horses; pardon my ignorance... this not done trackside??? WOW!!!!
Speaking of Aidan O\'Brien, did everyone see the Melbourne Cup the other night? After the Solider of Fortune, his rabbit and their jockeys totally screwed up the trip in the Turf the three entries he had in this 2 mile race went out, by themselves, six lengths in front of the field in an attempt to make it a true \"stayers race\".
In the end they accounted for three of the last four finishers in this 22 horse field.
Does anyone have a clue if he has lost control of the jocks or what?
BTW, an interesting Breeders\' Cup fact is for all the horses that Coolmore and O\'Brien have shipped to the BC only two have won (High Chaparral (twice) and Johannesburg) and as a matter of fact he has as many horses break down (George Washington and Landseer) as winners. In general I don\'t think they point toward these races, when opportunity presents itself they take a gamble on placing their stock in positions that, if they get lucky, they can significantly bump the stallion value.