Mt. General will kick some butt.
I have to go along with the ROTW analysis this time. This clearly looks like a 2-horse race to me.
Bonapaw is the horse to beat and will not be hooking up with horses like Congaree and Orientate in this race. When he can press or set a reasonable pace he is very tough to beat. He also does seem to be cycling back to a good race and he loves FG. However, he may be a race away from a top effort.
Talknow is clearly the value play. 10-1 seems very generous to me if it holds up. At the weights, he has a decent shot to beat Bonapaw. He also seems to be cycling back to a good race. He has always been heavily raced and his fall freshening was his first break ever and had to do him some good. His trainer always races them into shape (take a look at his terrible layoff and 2nd off layoff stats) and this will be his third race after the freshening. Ideally, I would like to wait about a month to play him but all his other tops have come on short rest and he looks to be sitting on a big race. He has plenty of speed but can also layoff the pace and he may be sitting in the garden spot when they turn for home. If Bonapaw runs anything less than his best, Talknow is liable to pull the upset.
A win bet on Talknow along with an exacta box with Bonapaw looks like the obvious play.
Regarding Mountain General. I think the big effort two back took its toll and he will need something close to that to beat Bonapaw and Talknow and I don\'t think he will deliver it tomorrow. He looks to be a good bet against.
The rest seem too slow to do much damage unless Cojet jumps way up or Early Flyer is ready to fire off the bench. Those two are the most likely to fill out the trifecta.
Good luck to all.
Chris
Chris:
I don\'t think TalkNow is cycling back to the -1 the last 2 races were very fast and you don\'t cycle off of a race 2 pt from your top especially as a 6 yr old. Bonapaw may be cycling back but this horse was not being point to this race at all and he will be even money. I actually think Cojet is the horse most likely to run a new top and probably go to 0. I actually think M. General will run a 0 tomorrow and he has a very fast #. Kazoo is another one I like but as a 5 yr old don\'t think he has a big top in him. I think the ex will likely be Cojet and M. General with M. General having a better pace scenario(if you can believe I\'m talking about pace!!!).
He has certainly run well off similar layoffs, but if memory serves he was trained up to each of those races. In this case, Bonapaw did not train at all in Dec., and his only preparation consists of a series of 2 mile gallops, all of which took place in the last 2 weeks, with no timed works, not the usual way of getting a horse ready for a six furlong sprint, to put it mildly. The connections were also recently quoted as saying that Bonapaw is \"usually really rank after a layoff\" & that the Col Power is a prep for a \"two-turn experiment Feb. 9 in the Grade 3 Whirlaway Handicap.\" Bonapaw may very well have enough natural speed & talent to overcome these handicaps & finish on the bd, but the key to betting this race, as I see, it is tabbing him to run 3rd at best, & hoping that he runs 4th or worse.
OPM and Mall,
Good calls. I hope you both cashed.
Chris
Just my luck, pick a cold ex. and don\'t cash. FG is the only track that Youbet does not take online but it\'s nice to be right. Hope this is an indicator of things to comes next week Mall!!!