Let\'s see if we can get a little handicapping thread going.
BC Filly and Mare Sprint - Going to have to let Indian Blessing beat me at a short price. Brilliant on dirt, not sure about Pro-Ride and at 6-5, not paying to find out. The pace scenario here is going to be awfully tough on the frontrunners. Not sure if Indyanne can rate or if she can get the 7th furlong, but having run a couple negative 2\'s, getting 3 lbs from the older fillies and with proven synthetic form, she is the key for me. Will also use Zoftig and Venture on the multi-race bets. Lots of \"slow\" closers in the race, like Intangaroo, Tiz Elemental, Magnificence and Miraculous. The other two speeds besides Indyanne are not sharp, as Dream Rush is off form and Trickski is too slow. May get double digits on Indyanne. Give me a rail skimming ride, right behind Dream Rush. (BTW, DRF morning line of 4-1 on Ventura is too low, she will be higher IMO).
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Looks chalky to me, which is unusual for a 2 year old turf face. Laragh is fastest and I think Consequence will run better on firm turf, although I suspect she will be overbet as the \"wise guy horse\".
Juvenile Fillies - Have to bet against Stardom Bound. There are faster horses in the race, she will lose ground closing wide on the far turn, and she bore out last time out. Terrible 8-5 shot. Gonna key two horses on multi-race bets here. C.S. Silk ran very well on the Arlington synthetic and should be fine going two turns and is likely to be a fair price. Sky Diva could be any kind. her first two were awfully impressive. At 4-1, I will take a chance she can run on the Pro-Ride. She really wasn\'t asked in either of her races, and has tactical speed in a race surprisingly not filled with much speed. A nice post postion will make her very tough if she can handle the \"Pro-Ride\". I have no doubt she is much more talented than Stardom Bound.
Filly and Mare Turf - A short list of contenders. IMO it comes down to the two Diana horses and Wait a While. I know Wait a While looks a little average coming into this race, but she really loves that hard Santa Anita turf course and should work out a great trip, with tactical speed. Forever Together was incredible in both the Diana and in running down Precious Kitten last time out. Tough time to try 1 1/4 for the first time though. Dynaforce is probably the \"key\" for me, in that she will be a better price than the other two. Assume Allan Garcia gets the mount and I can see a 1w/1w trip, right behind Folk Opera, with Wait A While to her outside. I don\'t believe she needs soft turf as the turf in the DIana was not off, as others have reported on this board. Should be very tough at the distance with a trip, at a square price.
Ladie\'s Classic - I am stubborn, and will be trying to beat Zenyatta again. Carriage Trail is a throwout, off a 3 point new top as a 5 year old, coming back on short rest and having shown an affinity for Keenland only, which is different than Pro-Ride. Gonna go three deep here. I think Cocao Beach has the most upside of these and she reportedly worked out beautifully over the Pro-Ride. She should be a fair price (5-1), although her workout got a lot of writeups. Will also use Music Note and Hysterical Lady. Expect HL to be an overlay as it seems she has \"proven\" she isn\'t a synthetic horse, although I can make a case she bounced off the two negative 2\'s and as the fastest horse in the race, with the speed to get a 1w/1w trip, I have to use her a bit. I believe she is the best filly in the country, just not sure about the Pro-Ride.
Good luck to all
Any worrys that Indyanne shiped to NY, came back to California, again shipped east to Keeneland, then shipped back to California and then runs on only three weeks rest?
Jimbo - I think you have the Ladies Classic pegged dead on with contenders, but I will single Zanyatta and use her on top in a Superfecta with those you mentioned. I think Music Note will go forward, and you can make this a bargain by using HL in just the 3rd/4th spots.
F&M Sprint - What\'s with Lady Sprinter? Otherwise I will not bang my head against the wall.
Juv. Filly Turf - I don\'t like Laragh - I think she will back up off that last race. I need to know more about the Euros. Dream Empress looks good to me (nice trainer stats) and nothing wrong with Internally Flawless.
Juv. Fillies - Right with you on CC Silk. Doremifasolatido is a little interesting.
F&M Turf - Wait A While has a shot. Dynaforce likes it soft. Not sure on that one. Where is Goldikova going? I would like her in here.
Ladies Classic - I like Music Note.
I\'m not going bananas this year. I like these races a little because I can just do some \"hit and run\" here and not kill my bankroll. The only one that looks like it would cost me a lot is that Juv. Filly Turf race. If the Euros are bombs I may have to move in a little.
Good luck... HP
Juv. Filly Turf - Oui Say Oui and Beyond Our Reach have been trained by the old Irish rider Tommy Stack (very good with Juvy\'s). Both Fillies lost by 3 lengths to a Group 1 winner in Again. Beyond Our Reach was given a 103 rating by the Racing Post while Oui Say Oui earned a 99. I prefer the breeding on Beyond on Reach but I read she has a strong affinity to soft ground. Oui Say Oui was purchased by IEAH and looks like she will run for Dutrow. I\'ll be watching to see if either of these fillies are getting Lasix for the first time.
Apparently Oui say Oui didn\'t make the trip, so Stack just has Beyond our reach.
I know more than I did yesterday... Thank you. HP
I think IB is very vulnerable, she\'s been beating up on weak, short fields. BB is not crazy about the distance or the surface. Whenever she\'s been challenged, she lost. She\'s going to be chasing the speed and this time when she makes her move, there will be older, classier fillies to run at her. I like Ventura and Intangaroo (who always looks to slow, but gets them in the last 1/8). Also, Zaftig and Lady Sprinter are dark horses.
I think Cocoa Beach has a good shot at Z.
And I will be betting against Curlin. He\'s over the top and not great on anything but dirt. His foes in Dubai were a joke this year and so were the ones he faced in the U.S. If Fairbanks is in the race, he and Casino Drive will run with him for a mile +, and then I think the Euros have a legit shot this year and the race is up for grabs.
I don\'t see the euros winning the classic, nice turf numbers, wrong distances, and a few US horses they have to contend with. Colonel John and my upset special of the week TIAGO, check out the two neg numbers earlier in the year, this horse looks ready to pop his peanut IMO. The only issue is the pace of this paceless race, but his line looks strong for a foward move on saturday. Good luck
Even though this is a SATURDAY race - as far as the Classic goes...I could see Curlin getting beat. I don\'t LOVE the race, but I wrote down these three...
Raven\'s Pass
Tiago
Colonel John
I hope Pyro goes...he will soak up some money and looks like a solid \"bet against.\"
I picked out CS Silk, Doremi, and Sky Diva in the Juv Filly race. Doremi now stuck in the 13 hole, and that might be too much to overcome. SD could be anything, as you say Jim. just a matter of judging the talent vs the new surface. CS Silk looks great at the ml of 15-1, but I think they are off a touch on that one.
I\'ll probably toss Doremi after the draw - 30/1 Van Lear Rose is in. I like the 6 hole in the 13 horse field. decent race against Juv Turf fave Laragh, and a move forward stretching out last. has the synth experience, and a bit of tactical speed to get position.
came up with little other than the probable favorites in the turf - Laragh and Consequence.
Michael,
Sounds like you and I are on a lot of the same horses. The Juvenile fillies, juvie turf, f&M turf, and the sprint.
Just don\'t tell me you like Precious Kitten in the mile and Heroe\'s Reward in the turf sprint. That would probably be too much agreement.....
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Michael,
>
> Sounds like you and I are on a lot of the same
> horses. The Juvenile fillies, juvie turf, f&M
> turf, and the sprint.
>
> Just don\'t tell me you like Precious Kitten in the
> mile and Heroe\'s Reward in the turf sprint. That
> would probably be too much agreement.....
not sure about Precious Kitten Jim. she was loose on a slow pace last over a pretty firm turf course from post 1, and put up a \'3.25\'. looking for similar at best. I think you are going to get good odds though.
haven\'t come up with much in the turf sprint. I like the Euro filly a bit from post 2 getting 6 lbs. was a bit surprised though at the 5-1 ml.
MD I think you are on the money with Van Lear Rose. Could be a good race...
Jimbo
I keep looking at that lady classic, call me crazy, but that Santa Teresita looks very interesting at 50-1, that line keeps coming back to me, I like her to hit the tri, maybe win it.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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Ladie\'s Classic - I am stubborn, and will be
> trying to beat Zenyatta again. Carriage Trail is
> a throwout, off a 3 point new top as a 5 year old,
> coming back on short rest and having shown an
> affinity for Keenland only, which is different
> than Pro-Ride. Gonna go three deep here. I think
> Cocao Beach has the most upside of these and she
> reportedly worked out beautifully over the
> Pro-Ride. She should be a fair price (5-1),
> although her workout got a lot of writeups. Will
> also use Music Note and Hysterical Lady. Expect
> HL to be an overlay as it seems she has \"proven\"
> she isn\'t a synthetic horse, although I can make a
> case she bounced off the two negative 2\'s and as
> the fastest horse in the race, with the speed to
> get a 1w/1w trip, I have to use her a bit. I
> believe she is the best filly in the country, just
> not sure about the Pro-Ride.
I am looking at entries/odds in the NY Daily News. Zenyatta is the shortest
price favorite in the BC sequence at 3/5, and at that price I can not use her.
Hysterical Lady at 15/1 (can\'t imagine she goes off at odds that generous) drew
very well and GG\'s tactics here pretty obvious.
Ginger Punch (9/2) ran a career best TG# in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont (also
the lowest # in the field); I think the crafty Frankel may have backed off on
her since then, looking for the big effort in the big event.
Cocoa Beach and Music Note would have to move forward to be competitive with
their older rivals, and the uncertainty of the forward move plus the surface
uncertainty means that I will leave them off the ticket.
Agreed that Carriage Trail is unlikely to repeat her smashing Kee effort, but I
am leaning towards using her on small tickets based on Phipps/McGaughey\'s
history of success in this race.
The Play:-- In the last BC double in the Friday session, using the Euros (Folk
Opera, Halfway to Heaven)in the BCFM Turf with Hysterical Lady, Ginger Punch
and Carriage Trail in the BC Ladies
Josephus Wrote:
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> I think IB is very vulnerable, she\'s been beating
> up on weak, short fields. BB is not crazy about
> the distance or the surface. Whenever she\'s been
> challenged, she lost. She\'s going to be chasing
> the speed and this time when she makes her move,
> there will be older, classier fillies to run at
> her. I like Ventura and Intangaroo (who always
> looks to slow, but gets them in the last 1/8).
> Also, Zaftig and Lady Sprinter are dark horses.
>
> I think Cocoa Beach has a good shot at Z.
>
> And I will be betting against Curlin. He\'s over
> the top and not great on anything but dirt. His
> foes in Dubai were a joke this year and so were
> the ones he faced in the U.S. If Fairbanks is in
> the race, he and Casino Drive will run with him
> for a mile +, and then I think the Euros have a
> legit shot this year and the race is up for grabs.
Ahem
Josephus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Josephus Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I think IB is very vulnerable, she\'s been
> beating
> > up on weak, short fields. BB is not crazy about
> > the distance or the surface. Whenever she\'s
> been
> > challenged, she lost. She\'s going to be chasing
> > the speed and this time when she makes her move,
>
> > there will be older, classier fillies to run at
> > her. I like Ventura and Intangaroo (who always
> > looks to slow, but gets them in the last 1/8).
> > Also, Zaftig and Lady Sprinter are dark horses.
>
> >
> > I think Cocoa Beach has a good shot at Z.
> >
> > And I will be betting against Curlin. He\'s
> over
> > the top and not great on anything but dirt.
> His
> > foes in Dubai were a joke this year and so were
> > the ones he faced in the U.S. If Fairbanks is
> in
> > the race, he and Casino Drive will run with him
> > for a mile +, and then I think the Euros have a
> > legit shot this year and the race is up for
> grabs.
>
>
> Ahem
Pretty lame dude. You actually bumped a post about yourself to show us how smart you think you are. Its a better idea to let others notice and respond.
You picked the 5/2 wise guy horse to beat IB. Good job.
BTW, its one thing to say the Euros have a chance or to say a \"quick footed\" Euro will win. Its entirely different to actually pick the correct one. Kinda like saying \"I think a Euro will win the Turf.\" Great, now which one??
Now go get some ice for your arm, bending it awkwardly behind you to pat yourself isn\'t good for it.
P-Dub
I bumped it up as a convenience (because I think it was off the 1st Forum List screen) to those who might want to follow up on a point I made in my post about \"It\'s not the surface\". I just reversed the order. I could have put it up after the \"surface\" post. Sorry you were offended. My point was not about picking winners, but why I thought 2 particular favorites Indian Blessing and Curlin were overrated and why.
Cool.
I think a lot of us played against those two. The question was...who do you play??
Agreed. In my case, I played Ventura (as you said, a lot of us did) no surprise. In the Classic, based on how I saw the Euros performing during the day, I used all of them in exactas and tri\'s with Casino Drive and Champs Elysees and boxed them in the top 3 spots over Curlin in the supers. OK in the exactas, but no cigar in the others;but those decisions were not made until the time of the race.