Jerry or Allan,
This post is not a criticism, although it may sound like it, but bear with me. I often look at the redboard room analysis to look at how one of you handicapped a card that I bet on. Sometimes it gives me some insights as to something I may have missed, sometimes not. Often you guys have similar losers that I did.
Anyway, as I have noticed, it is pretty rare for you have an A- selection, almost \"very rare\". There are some B+ selections, but A- is tougher to come by.
Well, in the context of the recent Synthetic vs Dirt issues we have brought up on the board and how we factor that into handicapping, I am wondering how somebody gave REgal RAnsom an A- selection yesterday at Santa Anita. What was the thinking? He had one race, albeit fast, on Dirt, then was shipping west to run on poly, where he had never run and most of the competitors had run. Additionally, we have talked about how the figures are more compact on poly, so the \"2\" on dirt, doesn\'t equal a \"2\" on poly.
Anyway, not redboarding the bad pick, just trying to understand why it was made, especially in light of the problems with form transferring from one surface to another.
Alan probably won\'t be in until Tues, but I\'ll take on a couple of points. First of all, I agree it wasn\'t an A bet, between shipping, going two turns, having only one figure, and the surface. When they bet him down to 7/5 or whatever, I bet the winner, using Regal Ransom heavy.
But I\'m not saying a 2 isn\'t a 2. It is. But it\'s sort of like assuming a horse that runs a 2 on dirt will do it on grass. If he handles both surfaces equally well he will, but that\'s an open question. And again, I\'ve sent some fast horses to California who ran their figures out there.
The compaction question is very complicated. Just looking at the spreads at the finish line on grass and poly vs. dirt (and especially slop) tells you something is going on. But it\'s not a question of beaten length scales being different-- if that was true the figures would come up screwy, and grass horses wouldn\'t repeat their figures as often as they do.
A number of horses have run negatives on synth. Zenyatta and Heatseeker followed their big Oaklawn figures with similar ones in California. Colonel John ran the same figure in the Swaps and Travers. Others who exploded after getting off synth got hurt doing it, which indicates it was a massive effort for them (Tough Tiz Sis being the latest).
I\'m looking forward to doing figures for this past weekend to see how the Pro-Ride plays.