It\'s official. Sadler is the new Tricky. $50K claimer turned Grade 1 Winner. Amazing! Anything he saddles in the BC is a complete toss with the surveillance
The only thing missing with this guy is the two day rest wheel back.
Have to believe the figure Jerry gave this horse last time out is wrong.
He ran a 110 beyer, but somehow only got a 1 on TG.
He was 4w today and much the best. Looks to me like the 110 beyer was closer to correct.
Either way he was a toss in my eyes. Slower than others or coming off at least a 3 point top on short rest. He took some action on the board, but kept him off my tickets because I thought Sadler would be slowing down right about now.
Jimbo-- I\'ll try to post the 8/9 DMR race when Paul or Alan is around, I\'m not techno-savvy enough to do it myself. We gave the winner the new 3 point top, two other horses paired their tops, and ran the same figure again next time out. Having said that, I have the track changing speed a lot that day (which happened regularly at DMR, and happens on most synthetics, as Free pointed out out about Pro-Ride in his article),and I\'ll review the race again after a few more have run back.
Miff-- you are losing your short term memory. I went through a detailed discussion a week or two ago about how we know the California numbers align correctly with the East coast ones-- by how the many east coast horses that have gone the OTHER way have consistently run their figures out there. That means the issue is this synth to dirt thing-- there is now a very large group that have made that jump, AND HURT THEMSELVES DOING IT (like Black Seventeen last year), which is evidence the race in question was a knockout effort. Do you really think BS\'s Cal races were as good as the one he ran yesterday?
My take on the way this is playing is that synth/dirt horses run like horses coming off dead rails, where for some reason a much higher percentage than usual run tops.
As far as the drug stuff goes, I did more than wish.
Miff-- you are losing your short term memory. I went through a detailed discussion a week or two ago about how we know the California numbers align correctly with the East coast ones-- by how the many east coast horses that have gone the OTHER way have consistently run their figures out there. That means the issue is this synth to dirt thing-- there is now a very large group that have made that jump, AND HURT THEMSELVES DOING IT (like Black Seventeen last year), which is evidence the race in question was a knockout effort. Do you really think BS\'s Cal races were as good as the one he ran yesterday.
Jerry,Seriously, I am losing a little of my short term memory but my long term seems ok.
Don\'t want to start a string but you missed the point. A strong case can be made that many Cali shippers are outrunning their TG figs by too much to make sense.Horses going the other way, east to west, have little to do with TOPS.We are trying to find out why so many Cali\'s run TOPS. Maybe you have them too slow going in. Why is that not a reasonable possibility? Forget east to west and vice versa, were talking TOPS being run by horses that appear too slow on TG to win the race they are in.
Its not just synth, this has been going on since the dirt surface days.You are certainly much slower than Beyer,after adjustment.Don\'t have enough Rags data to compare.
Agree that Black Seventeen ran his best fig, neg for sure and better than any Cali or other performance.That confirms to me that there is no way his races are generally as slow as you have them.Horses just don\'t ship 3000 miles with no real changes (trainer,equipment etc) and legitimately outperform there recent figs by many lengths.Just for your info BS had two TG negatives,a zero and 1\'s scale to scale with Beyer.
I see the sheets for various circuits enough to know that Cali( 1st or 2nd best circuit) has less horses running in negative TG territory than say Delaware, a circuit with not nearly the caliber of runners as California.It just don\'t reconcile to me.Hope I have been clear in expressing my view.
Mike
Miff-- you\'re missing the point. I agree that some (not all) horses coming from THE SYNTHETIC TRACKS in California are jumping up. I\'m showing you that of the two possibilities we can think of-- change of geography (meaning the figures are wrong) or change of surface-- there is a lot of evidence (which I\'m not going to go through again) that it is not the first. That leaves the second, as far as we know.
If you are right about the scale being wrong, virtually ALL the east coast horses will not run to their numbers on our figures in the BC. My prediction is that less than usual do (shipping, new surface), but that lots do. That can\'t happen if you are right, unless I give MANY west coast horses new tops in the BC.
JB,
If you are right, and you may be, then there is this incredible coincidence that for several years the horses in California have consistently been generally slower than the ones on the east coast.I guess horses are getting faster, except in California.
Too bad George is so busy,I\'d love to know how many negative TG figs were given last 3 years, west coast vs east coast.
Mike
More importantly, Mets in big trouble!
Have you seen a lot of negative figures at Keeneland over the poly? They have some pretty good racing there. Arlington?
This goes to a conversation Jimbo started a few weeks ago, one of the ones fkach/ch screwed up for everybody. And I still don\'t have an answer-- but it\'s a function of surface, not geography.
Give me a break Kee runs for 60 days or so, CALI runs all year almost.
Kee runs an awful lot of stakes and allowances in those 60 days. But the point is that you would figure see some, right? More than just a couple.