She is going for the Older Distaff title here. Ginger Punch has already lost today. Hysterical Lady will try to out punch her first.
Don\'t wait to late Michael Earl Smith.
If she goes in the Classic and wins how is she not HOY?
Because the media has already decided it is between BB and Curlin.
What a bunch of CRAP
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.....JB may get his wish!
She sure has one of the most - if the THE most - fluid stride I\'ve seen. A real treat to watch.
If she goes in the Classic he has to show up.
With BB only to worry about he could pass on the BC then win the Clark and probably still be safe for HOY.
The filly now calls the shots
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If she goes in the Classic he has to show up.
>
> With BB only to worry about he could pass on the
> BC then win the Clark and probably still be safe
> for HOY.
>
> The filly now calls the shots
what are you talking about? the trainer has already said they are going to Hol to train for the Distaff.
I don\'t think Zenyatta is going to beat Music Note.
Winning the Distaff is a once a year occurance
They have a chance to make history. Surpass Personal Ensign, Ruffian and all the greats before her.
They will come to their senses
\"I don\'t think Zenyatta is going to beat Music Note\"
Hi Mike D,
I might have agreed before watching Zenyatta handle that pro ride surface yesterday. Surface was plus app 180(9 lengths faster than normal raw)but her last 5/16\'s in 28.2 is in the freak zone for any horse much less a filly.
Her race, projected against Well Armed,(weak Cali GR 1 winner ran with 1 more pound) is slightly faster.If not Curlin or BB,I have not seen any other males that could hold her off on that surface assuming she fires her best shot.
Mike
Michael,
Music Note and Hysterical Lady and Proud Spell would all beat Zenyatta on dirt, IMO, but after watching the \"pro-ride\" race of Hysterical Lady, I think Zenyatta wins the distaff on that \"non-surface\".
There has been nothing print anywhere about her going in the classic, at least nothing I have come across, so this whole thread is just wishful thinking.
Miff she never got out of 2nd gear yesterday. That is per Simon Bray
Jimbo if this is another pick like the ones you posted for yesterday her chances just went way up.
Silver,
I saw her performance. She was not pressed on but was hand ridden out. It is very difficult to truly assess performances on a surface that is sooooo fast as Santa was yesterday. Some horse love that rock hard, foot rattling type surface, while others get stung by it.
With nothing to lose, and given her apparent affinity for that surface and having \"outrun\" the Gr 1 males and given the uncertainty of how BB and Curlin will handle pro ride,(whew) I\'d run her in the Classic.
Agree with Jim,I think she\'s a legit 1/2 shot in the distaff.
Mike
You are correct Silver, my picks were quite off yesterday.
But you ought to try handicapping, right or wrong, it is good the brain. Much more cathartic than whining about how over-rated Big Brown is.
Unfortunately, at times the board hits a lull, where whining generates dozens of responses, but actual handicapping goes unnoticed.
She\'s gonna be going on Friday. I agree, we\'re not gonna see her in the Classic.
I think it is shame for the sport and filly if they do. She has a chance to make some serious history if they let her.
The owner is a class guy and the trainer a tremendous horseman. Two of the best assets the sport has to offer.
But nobody remembers Rags to Riches for her Ky Oaks win and people who barely follow horse racing know of her because she beat colts and won the Belmont.
A matchup of BB, Curlin, Commentator and Zenyatta would turn a BC that was not looking so hot because of all the Synthetic and track issues into one for the ages.
Running on the Friday undercard is like saying you were once the warmup band for Rat.........
Zenyatta gets 3 or 5 lbs in the Classic by being a filly?
On that deep of a surface, she\'s a long striding closer who handles it great, the two main contenders are east coast horses who haven\'t been all that great visually in recent times either. Curlin is working hard to win as is BB and Zenyatta? She\'s winning graded horse races with the distain of an all time great and the connections won\'t even consider running in the classic with the weight break and all?
Maybe they ought to ask Mike Smith if he thinks she can beat the boys in the Classic, it would be interesting to see what this hall of fame jock has to say.
what if Albarado rode her?
Imallin,
at this point it couldn\'t hurt to get his viewpoint provided he stressed her
sheer locomotion.After all,his feedback as a rider is critical in that regard.
Regarding number\'s and percents the owners may want to gander at the sheets.I would imagine a neg 2 on that surface puts her in contention.According to dosage
she\'s bred to run all day and night if need be.
Respectfully,
Flighted iron
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think it is shame for the sport and filly if
> they do. She has a chance to make some serious
> history if they let her.
I saw enough history in the 1970s. These \"historic\" runners -- Secretariat,
Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Forego, Spectacular Bid, etc were usually odds on
favorites. If BB, Curlin, Zenyatta, Commentator ALL skip the Classic, and the
Classic ends up with a full field of second stringers and Euros, it would make
for a great betting race and I wouldn\'t complain.
You are trying too hard to get the casual sports fan involved with Racing. Not
going to happen, because the empty suits responsible for marketing the sport
have proven incompetent (\"Go Baby Go\"). So lets review-- no new blood coming in,
lots of current fans wagering less and less as the quality of Racing diminishes,
that leaves the whales.
Once the whales realize the only ones in the pool are other whales, how long
do you think they will persevere?
> A matchup of BB, Curlin, Commentator and Zenyatta
> would turn a BC that was not looking so hot
> because of all the Synthetic and track issues
> into one for the ages.
Commentator wants no part of Curlin. If he did, Zito would have run him against
Curlin in the JCGC at Belmont, a track that Commentator has done well on.
Instead, Zito used the horse slaughter issue as an excuse to go to Sufferin
Downs.
Hell, Silver, while we are at it why don\'t we unretire Ghostzapper, Mineshaft
and Fusaichi Pegasus. The Classic could then be called the \"Race of the Century\"
> Running on the Friday undercard is like saying you
> were once the warmup band for Rat.........
The Friday races are not an \"undercard\", it is just an ill conceived idea by
some of Racing\'s misguided marketing gurus. Maybe next year they will run all
the turf races on Friday. In 2010, they can run all the sprint races on Friday.
This is the best Racing\'s top marketing minds can come up with? Gaines is
twisting in his grave, and John Nerud, who in his mid 90s is sharper than most
of Racing\'s decision makers, is scratching his head.
Commentator wants no part of Curlin. If he did, Zito would have run him against
Curlin in the JCGC at Belmont, a track that Commentator has done well on.
Instead, Zito used the horse slaughter issue as an excuse to go to Sufferin
Downs.
You own a horse that can run in a $500,000.00 race and looks like a lock with an extra weeks rest if you do go to the BC.
or you run in a $750,000.00 race hooking up with some speed and the horse of the year and ots a week later?
Hmmm sounds like the trainer knows what he is doing. However from what i am reading you are better at spoting horse for the owners.
nice job
At the risk of getting reprimanded by P-Dub for being on the same whiney topic, it doesn\'t matter if Curlin shows up, or if the filly runs in the Classic, or even if you unretire Ghostzapper and Bernardini. Sorry, but the BC Classic won\'t prove much this year.
If Go Between beats Curlin and Big Brown by 5 on the polycrap, is there a handicapper on the planet who would say Go Between is better than Curlin or Big Brown or would repeat that on dirt? Of course not. Yes, I will save those that want to post how synthetics provide a wagering opportunity for those that can \"figure them out\", but saying \"yep, agreed\". However, the Breeders Cup was designed to determine the \"best of the best\", not just for finding wagering opportunity. However, for the next two years, none of the non-turf BC races will prove anything, because the idiots in charge chose to put the races on polycrap.
Would there have been a better distaff in the last 20 years, if the race was on dirt, and you had Music Note, Zenyatta, Ginger Punch, Hysterical Lady and Proud Spell all running? That race, despite being the \"distaff\", might have been the \"race of the century\". Instead you get Zenyatta at even money, on polycrap, likely beating them easily, with Proud Spell skipping the race. Can\'t prove this, but Proud Spell would have been in the Breeders Cup if it was on dirt.
Curlin should go to the Japan Cup. He won\'t win on the poly. And it won\'t matter, when he doesn\'t. Maybe taking 6-1 on Go Between is \"great value\", for the best Poly-horse in the U.S. or guessing that he Euros might like it better than our dirt horses do, but it will be guessing. Nobody knows. Our host here has gone on record about not having figured out how to handle the disparity in figures for the surface switches and trying to predict the move ups and move downs, and he does it for a living, investing quite a bit more time than most of us on this board do.
WOW Ritchie, one week I am too negative the next I am too polyana.
How do I win?
Curlin can go anywhere he wants. SA, Japan, China or the moon. Either way I am pulling for him. He has proved enough. Same goes for Big Brown, sort of.
How many $5.0M pots does Commentator get a shot at. He is 7 you know and in career form. If it is about making your owner money start prepping for the Evan Shipman.
The owner of Zenyatta was one of the ones who was the most against making the move from Dirt to Polytrack. He said there was not enough data to support the claims and hence a leap of faith conversion. He was feeling real deep personal pain to see the mess SA, and Calif racing, was in in the spring with all of the closures.
Polytrack is there to stay in Calif. Having a full fledged endorsement of it by everyone in the industry may help acclerate and educate fans and horseplayers to the new surface and move on past this cloud of uncertainty. A former Dirt advocate could generate a real publicity boon by taking his shot in the BC Classic on the filly\'s home track in race she can win.
And if doesn\'t believe me then send him her SHEET. To say it looked explosive is a real understatement. She wins that race in a gallop.........
basket777 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You own a horse that can run in a $500,000.00 race
> and looks like a lock with an extra weeks rest if
> you do go to the BC.
>
> or you run in a $750,000.00 race hooking up with
> some speed and the horse of the year and ots a
> week later?
>
> Hmmm sounds like the trainer knows what he is
> doing. However from what i am reading you are
> better at spoting horse for the owners.
>
> nice job
Basket:
Absolutely no complaints with Zito or Tracy Farmer or the way they have handled
their gelding.
I am an old fashioned racing fan. You win the Whitney and the next logical step
to me is the Woodward or the JCGC, not a virtual walkover at a leaky roof track.
The interesting debate on this board is whether Commentator is a great horse
or simply a brilliantly fast horse. Some on this board have called Commentator
a mere \"bully\".
If Commentator had faced Curlin at Belmont, and won, debate over. I guess the
fact that Commentator is gelded makes it less important that he win the graded
stakes which would enhance his value.
I do not think that the one week of extra rest will make that much difference
and do not imagine that it was a determining factor in running at Suffolk.
If I managed Commentator I would be thinking Dubai, not the BC. Dirt, no BB, no Curlin, plenty of time. But I for me this a business, not a sport.
Silver,
Zenyatta has been pointed toward the Lady\'s Classic from the very beginning. John has no interest in butting heads with the males.
If John changes his mind on Zenyatta and enters her in the Classic, I\'ll send you an apology. Henrythenavigator and the Duke, if they come, will make the Classic a lot tougher race than people realize.
Good luck
\"It\'s such a thrill to have a filly like Zenyatta and have her win a big award at the end of the year in and of itself, and, in the end, is it really fair to her to run in the Classic?\" Shirreffs said Monday. \"She\'s only 4. What she\'s done is remarkable. Why push it?\"
class.
You guys are ganging up on me.
\"is it really fair to her to run in the Classic?\"
No it is not. Spare the boys the embarassment and run on Friday.
Zenyatta\'s splits from last weekend:
24 4/5
23 4/5
23 1/5
22 3/5
final 1/16th in .06 flat
Under normal circumstances, if the Classic were run on dirt, it wuld be tough to justify running Z against males. But synthetic tracks are more like turf than dirt and fillies in the fall of the year can beat the colts, as they have done with regularity in the Prix de l\'Arc de Triomphe and Champion Stakes. She has a home court advantage to boot. They should do it.
Barry Irwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Under normal circumstances, if the Classic were
> run on dirt, it wuld be tough to justify running Z
> against males. But synthetic tracks are more like
> turf than dirt and fillies in the fall of the year
> can beat the colts, as they have done with
> regularity in the Prix de l\'Arc de Triomphe and
> Champion Stakes. She has a home court advantage to
> boot. They should do it.
Why not try and get a Dist er, Ladies win this year and come back in 09
and try the Classic, when she will still enjoy a home field advantage?
Good luck with Collegiate today in the Frizette. Any BC Juvie Fillies plans for
this one?
Barry good luck today from me also.
Ritchie, Baffert and company put up the $200K or whatever it is last year with Tiz\'s Tough Sis to run in the Distaff thinking we can always run next year.
Now there is no next year.
She is in top form and heading towards a big rest. The pot is almost triple the Distaff and most of the favorites have unknowns on the synthetic.
This would be a show stopper for the Cup but now it is on Friday and it really loses a lot of luster.
To ask a Superstar to perform on a lessor stage is \"not really fair to her\".......
Family legend has it that those samples got up and walked away under their own power.
And 3 days later they did it again.