I posted on the \'other\' site my guess that he had to have run a negative number on the Ragozin scale. Reasoning thus:
Other horses figured to run between a 5 and 8. Give them an \'8\' or maybe a \'9\' if they quit at the end.
Commentator wins by 14 lengths, which is about 8 points.
Commentator gave about 10 lbs (2 points) in weight.
Commentator raced outside of the 2nd place horse (or so it seemed) for most of the race. 1/2 point.
My guess -1 or -2 or so for Ragozin. He had run a -5 on TG last race (a figure he had run several times) so I have to think he ran at least that fast in the Mass Cap.
Your lengths correction is slightly off and the other riders didn\'t make the weight. But we gave him another neg 5-- the only question was whether it was better.
At a Beyer of 110 plus ground, weight, not surprised at the ugly neg -5. When a horse like that bottoms out the field, the beaten lenghts become a little fake.The first part of the race was very fast(as was the surface), the last part ordinary.
Would love to tackle Commentator with any legit runner in the neg 2-3 range as long as there is some grade one type other speed to keep him honest.His type always looks better when they beat up on cheap speed with no \"runners\" behind them.
Mike
Miff,
I hear your point, but based on number power alone, Commentator will be formidable in the BC Classic, if he runs. Normally, a horse that has run as fast as he has in as many races as he has, and won his last few so impressively, would be \"short priced\" in the Classic. In this case, I would agree with the \"bet against\" strategy.
But if Big Brown and Curlin both run, Commentator would be 3rd choice. As the fastest horse in the race, and 3rd choice, he isn\'t a \"bet against\" for me.
But i am jumping ahead of myself. They all have to commit to the race and then get there healthy.
His type
is that the type that has won over 1.5 mil many graded races. that is the tpe i want to own.
Don\'t want to start a thread. If Commentator goes in the BC, please contact me privately, I will book EVERY quarter at track price plus a whole extra point.
Mike
TGJB seems to me you advised Bob Baffert a few years back to run Congaree in the Classic. The primary point of view was he could not get the distance, he ran gamely but finished fourth behind Pleasantly Perfect.
Commentator is son of Distorted Humor who you once bought.
Commentator is now coming off paired Negative 5\'s and has run a Negative 5 six times in his last 14 races spread over 4 years.
If you were to advise Zito would you tell him to stay or go. No becoming biased by the fact a strong early pace would benefit Student Council.
Silver:
Five weeks is too close for that horse. I think if the race is at Belmont, Zito doesn\'t go in the Mass \'Cap and trains right up to the Classic off the 2 month layoff.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
and if I understand this right - lunch at Katzs or DeFontes as well as the extra point ! now that sounds like the real deal ...
\"and if I understand this right - lunch at Katzs or DeFontes as well as the extra point ! now that sounds like the real deal\"
...Mark, Only if he does not run away by a pole and embarrass me!
Mike
I may have said something here, don\'t remember. But I didn\'t advise Baffert about Congaree.
If I were going to run Commentator in the BC I would not have run in the Mass Cap.
What are you running for office JB? Of course, all of us who have posted here for the past years could have guessed that you would have skipped the Mass Cap if you wanted to run in the BC Classic.
But that is a \"hedge answer\".
He ran in the Mass Cap and ran his negative 5. You know how the contenders look. Would you now run in the BC Classic with Commentator, knowing he is the fastest horse in the country or do you just wait till next year, when the gelding may or may not be able to duplicate this form.
It\'s really not a fair question, since I think he\'s unlikely to run well, for a number of reasons. It then becomes a question of risk/reward, and even on the 25% chance he runs his race, it\'s still worth going because of the huge purse. But that\'s true of almost everyone.
I\'m with Miff. Commentator is a complete toss in the Classic for me, as is Big Brown. The main questions for me are 1) who the Euros send over and 2) whether Curlin will run as poorly on Pro Ride as he did on Turf. On dirt Curlin is miles better than the other US horses.
I am watching to see whether they send Duke of Marmalade over. His Euro numbers are pretty imposing. He is supposedly being considered for a synthetic track 9f prep on Saturday but cannot find any recent news stories to confirm or not.
David I get the impression you almost see this year, with a 14 horse field and plenty of Poly-type questions as sort of an Argangue type year.
Might be a good way to go........
I hear you Jerry, but I think you oversimplify. Not everybody who enters can win \"if they run their race\". Curlin, Big Brown and Commentator are faster than the others, by a gap. For example, Student Council needs to do more than \"run his race\" to win. He needs the other faster horses not to run.
Even if I made Commentator 10 to 15% to \"run his race\", I would enter him. The negative 5, with a trip, is very very likely to win.
Do you really think Commentator can run a negative 5 in the breeders cup classic? Haven\'t all of his big races come when he ran on the lead by himself usually against much less??? I don\'t believe you can take anyting out of him Winning that mass cap race....considering the weak field...and he WONT get an easy lead in the classic...nevermind whether he takes to the poly.
Jimbo-- I obviously wasn\'t saying everyone can win if they run their race. I was saying that the risk/reward makes it right for everyone to run-- which was incorrect. Stallion considerations (and tactical ones) might make it wrong for Curlin or BB to run.
Obviously I have an interest in this, but if I were managing Curlin or Commentator, I would go to CD and get them to put up a big bonus for the winner of the Clark, then announce I was going to be there no matter what, challenge BB to fight it out for the title on dirt, and skip the BC.
And by the way, a neg 3 1/2 for SC would probably be 75% to win, on synth.
TGJB -
If you were managing Curlin, wouldn\'t you be worried that Commentator would skip the BC and show up in the Clark?
That is a good point. And if were to beat Curlin head-to-head I do not know how he doesn\'t win Champion Older Horse
I stand corrected on Student Council, from memory, I thought his top was negative 1.5 or so, Didn\'t realize he got a negative 3.5. In the Whitney?
At negative 1.5 his \"best\" was probably not enough to win, if the others showed up (surface aside).
Best guess is that Commentator goes there or the Cigar anyway, Zito wants to give him time. Your choice is to run against Comm when he\'s coming off two big ones, or take your chances against BB et al on synth, which Asmussen does not do as well on (see his profile). If Curlin runs a stinker in the BC (and he\'s also at the end of a long season) and Commentator wins his next one, the latter will probably get the handicap award anyway. If BB beats him in the BC he\'ll get horse of the year.
I would go for the rest and the Clark on dirt. At least that way you\'ll get his race. Even if BB then wins the BC, he will not have beaten him or Commentator-- you could force him to meet the two older horses in the Clark, with BB not well rested.