1)Nightscape
2)Hotstuffanthensome
3)Shakis
4)Big Brown
5)Kiss The Kid
6)Proudinsky
7)Drum Major
8)Get Serious
9)Fagedaboudit Sal
10)Ballonenostrikes
11)Silver Tree
Pretty Nice Race...
I just looked at the PPs. For some reason the race doesn\'t look quite as tough to me as I thought it would. It\'s still a tough spot to take 3-5 on a horse like BB. There are still questions about the health of his feet and he\'ll be trying turf for the first time in a long time against solid horses. But IMO it\'s an easier spot than Curlin faced in his turf debut and he ran decently in defeat. And of course, BB has already raced over turf and finished powerfully when he did, albeit against non entities.
Big Brown is a good horse and he should beat these. If he does not then the spring run was more of a streak than a blossoming.
If the race went without Big Brown first place was a $120K. With the race going with Big Brown second place is $100K. Hence the deep field in terms of numbers.
I hope Big Brown runs well and wins and goes on to Santa Anita to face Curlin. There are lot of really good horses out there now; (Zenyatta, Ginger Punch, Hysterical Lady, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell) but these are the only two anyone wants to talk about and give a lot credit too. In terms of how outstanding and brilliant they are. The others I mentioned fit in that category also.
So since everything is just a two horse race we may as well keep them around for as long as we can. Once the others are gone people will begin to appreciate them a little more...........
Hypothetical Scenario:
Lets say that the class horses which are entered-- the 8YO Shakis, the 5YO
Proudinsky and the 8YO Silver Tree -- all run in this race.
Lets say that BB handles this field pretty easily, gives a good visual
impression, runs the race in a time near the track record, receives
an impressive number from all of the 3 wise men, and comes out of the race
in top condition.
Do you point BB towards the BC Turf rather than the BC Classic?
One of the things they may want to see on Saturday is Big Brown relax early rather than Kent wrestling him into submission.
An anxious 3yo running on the turf against Grade 1 animals can\'t win at any distance.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I wonder what they\'ll do if he runs a disappointing well beaten 3rd or 4th?
Do they say \"He didn\'t like it and go on\" or do they retire him?
To me, if he doesn\'t run a big race, he doesn\'t have much of a shot in the Classic. IMO, he\'s got to demonstrate he\'s both really good AND that he can handle the surface because those artificial surfaces are more like turf than dirt. I guess he doesn\'t have to win, but IMO he better at least be in a ding dong battle with a very good horse at the end.
He needs to win and look good doing it. The value of this animal is vanishing faster than Lehman Bros stock.
Remember FuPeg. Impressive spring. Solid comebacker in Jerome. Trot five wide around the track in BC Classic with no impact and see his Stallion Fee cut in half in first 3-4 years at Stud.
My point is the Fee was to high to begin with based on nice run from March to May against mediocre 3YO.
Calling this group of 3YO mediocre is a upgrade from what i call them.Big Brown wouldnt have been in the top 5 in last year group.You will see how sad this group is when Big Brown is up the track Sat.
Dominguez/Frankel Profile could you please fix this a rerun Proudinsky\'s sheet.
Thanks.
Great Analysis Favorite Trick. Proudinsky looks like a horse that was a little short in his last and will make Big Brown run every step of the way. Kiss the Kid has had only one bad one this year. The Met. The race after that was better than the figure looks. He may go back figure wise and he may be in over his head. But he is at home and on his best day is good enough to punch it in. At 12-1 or more make sure you punch him on your ticket. If you do not you will feel like you have been punched in the face.
This will not be some candy ride 3yo race where Big Brown finds his normal spot and kicks home. Tactics will be in play from the minute the gate opens.
I liked Proudinsky in this one even before I saw the sheets..Love him now after seeing the sheets..Also like Drum Major as the backup horse. I\'m another one that thinks Big Brown gets beat here as there seems to be a couple of speedsters on the outside of him to get him rank on the inside..Expect him to throw his head around and rush up on the backstretch then tire to finish fourth. Have a feeling Shakis does not like the soft turf so I\'m taking a stand against here and Kiss the Kid runs his best figures on dirt, I will use them third and fourth along with BB.
Beat Brown
The sheets scream \"Proudinsky,\" especially on a soft turf. How he ended up with that trip in the Baruch is a real head scratcher.
Unfortunately if the 3 cross-entered horses decide to go to Philly, you may be looking at a 5/2 shot.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I like Proudinsky as well, he\'ll like the soft and as long as Ramon can keep him out of trouble he\'s got a huge shot. I\'ll also look at Kiss the Kid and Drum Major to use in the Super.
Just when you thought it couldn\'t get any stranger:
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/September/12/Big-Brown-may-remain-in-training.aspx
Why does this come out the morning of the big race? Because he\'ll suck or b/c he\'ll run his eyeballs out?
Since Dutrow\'s and Iavarone\'s statements usually conflict, look for Tricky to
come out and say BB is definitely retiring.
Turf course listed as \"Good\" at MTH, would think it is on the soft or yielding
side of good. More rain possible in NY area, the softer the better for
Proudinsky, who I would expect to be no more than a 2/1 second fave if the
field stays intact.(UPDATE: Drum Major, Ballonenostrikes scratched).
Taking the ROTW analysis a step further, I will try to eliminate BB, Silver
Tree and Shakis from the exacta.
With all of the steam coming in on this one he may be favored.
Big Brown should race next year to get that stud value back to the $50-60M they thought they once had. The FuPeg example I cited earlier in the string is no bull. He now stands for $45k after beginning at around $125-150K.
If BB was to come back he would be able to take his time and find spots and run on Turf and Dirt ala John Henry. This would be great for Big Brown, SPECTRE and horse racing.
Big Brown ran good. Blasted to an early open daylight lead. Nobody gonna good ever gonna go with that. Settled then held them off down the lane as rider pleased.
If he handles the Poly he will be a bear on the Big Day and they are gonna have to come and get him.
WTF was that??
Very strong race by Big Brown..The race unfolded like nothing like I expected..It may sound like Sour grapes but if a good jock rides Proudinsky does he lose that race? This is not just based off of this race, I really think Dominguez is one of the most overrated jocks there is and of course he proves it to me once again..
I still think that twisted shoe has a lot to do with the Belmont debacle. No way to prove it.
Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WTF was that??
> It may sound like Sour grapes but if a good jock rides Proudinsky
> does he lose that race? This is not just based
> off of this race, I really think Dominguez is one
> of the most overrated jocks there is and of course
> he proves it to me once again..
It does sound like sour grapes. Not to mention yet again, when someone around here loses a wager, its time to play \"Lets blame the jockey\".
Tell us, with your vast experience of racing thoroughbreds, what YOU would have done differently that would have enabled Proudinsky to win??
This board is good for a laugh when someone is ripping up a losing ticket. So many experts around here.
How can anybody miss Chuckles when you get posts like that?? Ridiculous.
Like I said I know it would sound like sour grapes. It always the same though with Ramon...He is not a strong finishing jockey...Just something I always see..
Better Talk Now seems to finish pretty strong.
Proudinsky got a perfect trip. Given how close others were at the finish, he clearly didn\'t get back to his top.
Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WTF was that??
>
> Very strong race by Big Brown..The race unfolded
> like nothing like I expected..It may sound like
> Sour grapes but if a good jock rides Proudinsky
> does he lose that race? This is not just based
> off of this race, I really think Dominguez is one
> of the most overrated jocks there is and of course
> he proves it to me once again..
Lost,
Proud got a perfect trip today.
BB set an honest pace, and out-gamed the competition with a 12 flat final 1/8 when confronted.
Big Brown was best.
I mean no disrespect,but could you please elaborate on why you think dominguez
gave a poor ride? I wagered on Proudinsky and it appeared they weren\'t going by
BB had they looped again.Imho Dominguez is far from overrated.If anything he\'s a
throwback classic rider.He didn\'t have enough animal under him today.
Respectfully,
Flighted Iron
I thought it was a perfect prep race for him.
He was used a little early, but despite that he held off some decent horses even though they collared him early. IMO he wasn\'t even fully extended during a last 1/8th that was run in reasonable time.
Going out to CA to race 10F on synthetic against better horses won\'t be a walk in the park, but based on where everyone thought he was after the Belmont, it\'s reasonable to say that he\'s in a better position than most would have guessed.
To blame Dominquez is ridiculous. Problem with Proudinsky is that he tends to have a little hang in him when his races are not spaced.
IMO, he wins if the race was off of a layoff, not off of a race run 3 weeks ago.
Either way, he offered no value.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Bee/Fkach,
Would not put too much stock into what makes sense. BB is being handled like a valuable asset, rightly so.The plan is BC Classic,period! Only something unknown right now can change that plan.
He is obviously very talented and towers over the 3yr olds, but so far, much faster on dirt. His race yesterday was a 105 Beyer. There were no other grass races so they went off at Proudinsky,Shakis et al as usual.The raw time was good but they were kicking up divots, so it had give. Mon normally features very fast raw times on that grass course.
If TG sees the race the same BB will get a 1-ish, not nearly as fast as his best dirt figs.
Looked better yesterday but still not as good as his Fl/Kentucky Derbies. Still has that \"head action\"which got smoother after the first part of the race.How he and others will handle the new pro ride surface is the whole enchilada.Horses working on the new Santa are not working very fast so far. BB worked big on Kee poly last year.
Mike
Joe B,
From the time that Pat Reynolds had BB,this horse would not let anyone by him in the mornings. He\'s a fighter type that you have to run over quickly or else deal with his gameness.
Jim pointed out his determination in the Haskell(looked dead beat to me) and yesterday when Proudinsky came to get him.Incidentally, Dominguez rode Proudinsky perfectly, imo.
Seems his morning reputation was correct re his gameness.
Mike
Mike:
In your opinion, and you may be 100% correct, the only way to beat him in the Classic is to be in front of him?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe,
How BB will handle the new pro ride surface at Santa Anita is a mystery.I do know he worked well on Kee Poly once but these artificial surfaces are somewhat different.If it plays like Poly=Grass, he should be ok as will the Europeans who enter the Classic.I\'m hoping that Curlin does decide to go Classic because he has the anti artificial surface profile, big, heavy,lumbering type.I believe Asmussen is a very sharp trainer who knows his horse may be compromised.
Don\'t think BB needs the lead but a little tidbit was that he was a wee bit rank in the first part of the race Sat(could have also been fresh from the rather light training schedule)
BB looked beat to me in his last two,showed gameness, but did not run away from them like he did in the Derby and Preakness.Tough for me to gauge where BB is now vs where he was in the spring but he\'s not running as fast, maybe by design. Tricky is pushing all the right buttons.
Mike