The key 4 paragraphs start at \"Objective\".
Posted by: sighthound
Date: May 22, 2006 03:32PM
Caveat - not a practicing equine vet. Horses carry more weight on the forehand than rear. Brief lit search found a couple of interesting things, apologize in advance TGJB if too long or inappropriate to board content or current discussion:
Characterisation of the type and location of fractures of the third metacarpal/metatarsal condyles in 135 horses in central Kentucky (1986- 1994).
Equine Vet J 31[4]:304-8 1999 Jul - Zekas LJ, Bramlage LR, Embertson RM, Hance SR Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital, Lexington, Kentucky 40580-2070, USA.
The objective of this retrospective study was to provide a detailed description of the characteristics of condylar fractures represented in a population of 135 horses who sustained 145 fractures. Records and radiographic studies were examined. Fifty-nine percent of the horses were male and the majority Thoroughbreds. The distribution of fractures was 37% incomplete-nondisplaced, 30% complete-nondisplaced and 32% complete-displaced. *** The right front was more likely to sustain a complete-displaced fracture, whereas the left front was more likely to sustain an incomplete-nondisplaced fracture. Forelimbs (81%) and lateral condyles (85%) were more likely to be involved. Contrary to previous studies, the right forelimb was slightly more often involved than the left. Fractures tended to involve the middle portion of the condyle (59%). The mean length of all fractures was 75+/-3.8 mm. Axial fractures and medial condyle fractures tended to be longer. Fifteen percent of the fractures had definitive articular comminution. Ninety- five percent of fractures with articular comminution were associated with complete fractures. When fractures entered the middle area of the condyle, 23% had articular comminution. Eight of the fractures spiralled, all involved forelimbs. Concurrent lesions included proximal phalanx chip fractures, sesamoid fractures, sesamoiditis, proximal phalanx fractures, \'splint\' bone periostitis and ligamentous injuries. The complete description of the fractures in this group of horses allows us better to define the condylar fracture, compare these fractures to previous studies and establish new data for use in defining prognosis.
High-speed exercise history and catastrophic racing fracture in thoroughbreds.
Am J Vet Res 57[11]:1549-55 1996 Nov Estberg L ; Stover SM ; Gardner IA ; Drake CM ; Johnson B ; Ardans A
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relation between several racing speed history characteristics and risk of fatal skeletal injury (FSI) in racing Thoroughbreds. ANIMALS: 64 Thoroughbreds euthanatized during a 9-month period in 1991 at a California racemeet because of a catastrophic fracture incurred while racing (cases), identified retrospectively. For each race in which an FSI occurred, 1 control horse was randomly selected from the noncatastrophically injured participants.
PROCEDURE: Racing and officially timed workout histories were obtained for each horse. Several history characteristics were calculated to summarize racing career patterns and high-speed exercise schedules prior to date of injury and included age at first race, proportion of career spent laid up, average duration of laid up periods, average lifetime racing frequency, time from last lay up to date of injury, and total and rate of distance accumulated 1 to 6 months prior to date of injury. History characteristics associated with FSI were screened by paired t-test and studied in detail, using conditional logistic regression.
*** RESULTS: High total and high average daily rates of exercise distance accumulation within a 2-month period were associated with higher risks for FSI during racing, yet career patterns, such as age at first race or total proportion of career spent laid up, were not found to be associated with risk for FSI. A horse that had accumulated a total of 35 furlongs of race and timed-work distance in 2 months, compared with a horse with 25 furlongs accumulated, had an estimated 3.9-fold increase in risk for racing-related FSI (95% confidence interval = 2.1, 7.1). A horse that had accumulated race and timed-work furlongs at an average rate of 0.6 furlong/d within a 2-month period, compared with a horse with an average of 0.5 furlong/d, had an estimated 1.8-fold increase in risk for racing-related FSI (95% confidence interval = 1.4, 2.6).
CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Thoroughbred racehorses that either accumulate large total high-speed distances or rapidly accumulate high-speed distances within a 2-month period may be at increased risk for FSI during racing.
Horseshoe characteristics as possible risk factors for fatal musculoskeletal injury of thoroughbred racehorses. Am J Vet Res 57[8]:1147-52 1996 Aug Kane AJ ; Stover SM ; Gardner IA ; Case JT ; Johnson BJ ; Read DH ; Ardans AA OBJECTIVE: To evaluate selected shoe characteristics as risk factors for fatal musculoskeletal injury (FMI) and specifically for suspensory apparatus failure (SAF) and cannon bone condylar fracture (CDY) of Thoroughbred racehorses in California. DESIGN: Case-control study. ANIMALS: Thoroughbred racehorses (n = 201) that died of were euthanatized at California racetracks between August 1992 and July 1994. PROCEDURE: Shoe characteristics were compared between case horses affected by FMI (155), SAF (79), and CDY (41) and control horses that died for reasons unrelated to the appendicular musculoskeletal system (non-FMI; 46). Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for FMI, SAF, and CDY. RESULTS: Toe grabs were identified as possible risk factors for FMI, SAF, and CDY. The odds of FMI, SAF, and CDY were 1.8, 6.5, and 7.0, respectively, times greater for horses shod with low toe grabs than for horses shod without toe grabs on front shoes. Horses shod with regular toe grabs on front shoes had odds 3.5, 15.6, and 17.1 times greater (P < 0.05) for FMI, SAF, and CDY, respectively, compared with horses shod without toe grabs. The odds of horses shod with rim shoes were a third (P < 0.05) of those shod without rim shoes for either FMI or SAF. The apparent association between toe grab type and CDY may, in part, be attributable to concurrent SAF and CDY injuries in many horses. *** CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Avoiding the use of toe grabs should decrease the incidence of FMI, especially SAF, in Thoroughbred racehorses. The use of rim shoes that are more consistent with natural hoof shape may decrease injury risk.
So, we need you to post all of Eight Belles timed works with date, distance, time; and her races with date, distance, time; for her career.
Here\'s the abstract from a Texas A&M study that reaches the opposite conclusion for a larger group of horses in Kentucky. There\'s also a finding that horses with higher Beyer speed figures were more likely to get hurt.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between high-speed exercise and risk of injury while racing among Thoroughbreds in Kentucky. DESIGN: Matched case-control study. ANIMALS: 206 Thoroughbreds that sustained a musculoskeletal injury while racing and 412 Thoroughbreds that were not injured during the same races. PROCEDURE: Data regarding official timed workouts and races and the Beyer\'s numbers for the 3 races before the race during which injury occurred were extracted from past performance charts and compared between injured horses and control horses. RESULTS: For injured horses, cumulative distance of high-speed exercise during the 1- and 2-month periods prior to the race in which injury occurred was significantly less than that of control horses; for either period, a difference of 10 furlongs was associated with approximately 2-fold greater risk of injury. Beyer\'s numbers were significantly higher for injured horses than for control horses. These effects remained significant after adjusting for age and results of prerace physical inspection. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: In Kentucky, injured horses had significantly less cumulative high-speed exercise than did control horses during the 1- and 2-month periods prior to the race in which injury occurred. These results differ from those observed in California. The association of injury with cumulative high-speed exercise appears to vary among regions in the United States.
PMID: 10767969 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
is there a chance people can talk about handicapping? I trully thought the whole fact of the matter of using thoragraphs was to obtain the edge to make a profit.
althought horses breaking down is a very sad and interesting subject it might be better off in a forum for the human society . not one for handicapping. TGJB doesn\'t need to defend his numbers or stats of horses breaking down.
Whole point of this thread is handicapping. Being able to spot a horse that is over-the-top, used up, overworked, worn out, too many races in too short a time, etc.
sorry but your arugument seems a litlle moot. when you see a horse like this with the utmost percentages the horse will either regress or run a straight line. a new top with a horse like this is hardly something that happens. so you saying you need to know when a horse is going to break down is a handicap angle? remember if its a 10 horse race and you can predict with reasonable assumtion what a horse will run. hey gues what thats what the sheets are for. to see what a horse might run then based upon the odds we all have actions to take.
but to see if it will breakdown? wow thats morbid
bitplayer,
That was a very significant study because it also contained figures. I\'m surprised no one commented on such a significant post.
I think you are taking the \"breakdown\" part a little too literally. You study the horses that break down to determine what the limits may be for all horses, including those that don\'t break down, but may be otherwise compromised in their efforts.
The point is - it IS related to handicapping - AND - you are obviously free to raise whatever handicapping-related issues you care to raise without knocking the merits of a thread that other people are interested in.
There are appreciable differences in the methodologies and data interpretation between those two studies. Comparing them is not apples to oranges, but certainly red apples to green apples.
Notice CA followed horses to breakdown, KY to muscle injury; CA used measured distance/times to step chance of breakdown; KY used a relationship. Etc.
Sight-- I\'ll leave the workout part to you, my guess is you can get it from DRF. What we do know is that she ran very often without a break not for two months, but for eight. We also know she was running very very fast, often. So whichever study you want to look at-- the one you posted or the Kentucky one-- there is support for the idea you could see she had more chance of going wrong than the average horse.
I have a hard time believing that as a vet you don\'t think that a heavy schedule doesn\'t increase stress and the chance of a breakdown. I also want to point out again that I said trouble of some kind was imminent IN ADVANCE, and may have been the only person who tried to head it off. I guess I hit one of Miff\'s 500-1 shots, purely by accident.
On the second study-- I would like to know more about it. The California study was differentiating between horses with an average work load and a heavier one (25 furlongs of work and races vs. 35 or more over two months). If this study also does that, the results are interesting. But if they included ones with very light workloads it may not be relevant, because that in itself could indicate unsoundness.
\"I have a hard time believing that as a vet you don\'t think that a heavy schedule doesn\'t increase stress and the chance of a breakdown. I also want to point out again that I said trouble of some kind was imminent IN ADVANCE, and may have been the only person who tried to head it off. I guess I hit one of Miff\'s 500-1 shots, purely by accident\"
JB,
I\'ve said before you should run for office as you have a good knack of slanting the facts to your way. In the first instance EB broke down AFTER completing the race while under no pressure pulling up.
Secondly, Bramlege who is the face of these ugly incidents, by his presence, stated that he had never seen a \"double\" breakdown like this.A kinda random/chance/freaky occurence.Yes, I believe a vet would in fact state that horses with that profile may break if they thought so from THEIR daily experiences. They don\'t, how come?. You are not suggesting that you know more about this than vets or are you?
While there was no way to know that this filly was or was not a candidate to breakdown, you made a call. Now I will bet you, from your data, that there are many runners(not just 3 yr old fillys) that have a very similar profile to EB and did NOT breakdown. Please explain that and then you can pat yourself on the back.
Until further \"proof\" you made a lucky (unlucky) call!
Mike
Miff--
1-- Yeah, she broke down after the race. Running in it had nothing to do with it. Amazing she didn\'t break down just standing in her stall.
2-- Bramlage said he had never seen one like this. Therefore you conclude there was no cause? WITH TWO BREAKS, NO LESS? Man, that\'s some random occurance.
The fact that something is unique does not mean there is no cause. That\'s ridiculous reasoning, in fact.
3-- The vets DO say that heavier work loads cause breakdowns. That\'s what the study said.
4-- Do you seriously think Bramlage or anyone else is going to go on public record saying something that puts it on the connections? Have you ever seen that? Do you really figure the reason you have not is because that has NEVER happened in the history of racing?
5-- Show me another early 3yo filly with the profile of EB-- very very fast, with a string of tops, and as heavily raced. Go ahead, she doesn\'t have to be as fast, just very fast. If you can find one, we\'ll see how she made out.
To make it clear-- I didn\'t predict she would have a catostrophic breakdown. I predicted she would go wrong-- it might just have been the way Lawyer Ron did in somewhat similar (but much less extreme) circumstances last year. And I did so in MARCH-- I tried to get word for them to give her a break, skip the race before the Fantasy (I said they were 50/50 to win the Oaks or 50/50 to run 1-2-3 in the Derby if they did. This was at a time she was 8-1 in the Oaks book, much longer for the Derby). When they didn\'t, the only question was when and how severely she would go bad-- and it didn\'t necessarily have to happen in a race, and it could have just been tailing off, like BB did (to an extreme) in the Belmont. The extreme \"BI\" in the Fantasy was a big red flag that by that time trouble was imminent.
This was Eight Belle\'s race and workout schedule leading up to the Derby. Unfortunately, I do not have the DRF\'s prior to this handy, but at least it\'s a start.
May 3 Derby 10F
April 27 CD 5F 58.1B 2/62
April 20 KEE 4F 46.3H 2/38
April 6 OP Fantasy G2 8.5F
March 31 OP 5F 101.2B 6/18 (good track)
March 16 OP HoneyBee G3 8.5F
March 10 OP 5F 59.4B 1/28
Feb 17 OP Miss Washington 8F
Feb 11 OP 5F 100.3B 2/32
***there may have been a WO in between here, but it was not listed in the DRF I had
Jan 21 FG ALW Race 8.2F
JB,
I\'ll just say that it is FAR more logical that she would have broken down while under total stress chasing BB in very determined fashion late in the race(check the tape) Had she not taken a bad step/steps(or whatever happened) what would you be saying? Probably that she would go bad/regress next time or next or next.Of course she would eventually.
It\'s no revealtion that horses don\'t run their best all the time and eventually go over the top esp the very fast ones with lots of big efforts.That\'s predicting?
Mike
>> I have a hard time believing that as a vet you don\'t think that a heavy schedule doesn\'t increase stress and the chance of a breakdown.
It depends upon the amount and type of stress. It depends upon the response of the particular animal (cells, tendons, bone, etc) to that stress. Too little is bad, too much is bad.
Technically we\'re talking stress and strain, physics, Wolff\'s Law covering bone remodeling. Then you have to hope the soft tissue can handle it.
What\'s appropriate? That\'s what quantitative studies help us learn - it\'s not always apparent to the eye or to one\'s \"50 years of common sense experience\" type of thing.
>> But if they included ones with very light workloads it may not be relevant, because that in itself could indicate unsoundness.
If you read the complete study under materials and methods, it tells you what type of animals were used and not used, what samples were excluded from data inclusion.
For example, make sure the Thoroughbred breed - and trained horses - were used in studies related to some particular aspects of flat racing, not Quarter Horses, Arabs, grade horses, etc.
All studies are valuable, even those that seem to give conflicting information. You have to judge how well the study was done (scientific method) to see how much value you should give to the information, then you have to determine if you agree or not with the same conclusions as the researcher arrived at.
You can order the complete study off the PubMed website.
>The extreme \"BI\" in the Fantasy was a big red flag that by that time trouble was imminent.<
I am still looking for stats on BI and BO, but have been unable to find them. I don\'t doubt it often means something is amiss. I would just like to convert that insight into a probability estimate for having trouble soon after.
The one thing that was unique about EB was that she BI on multiple occasions in races and I am pretty sure in workouts also. I am clueless as to what something like that means.
Fkach,
You may wish to add to the list Big B who runs like a snake in the morning, esp if his regular exercise rider,Michelle is not on.
Kent D was fired from getting on BB in the am after Tricky\'s watched BB run all over the place. He has not been on in the AM since Feb.
What it means,NO ONE knows!
Mike
I would like to remind that the necropsy report on Eight Belles was public, and there was no indication of pre-existing bone damage (I think we\'ve talked about that before).
Both legs didn\'t break at once. The second was a consequence of the first, on a tired horse at the end of a race. That timing really does matter.
Her muscle exhaustion mattered alot as to why two legs were affected (muscles thus tendons stretch when fatigued, can\'t hold the boney column as tightly together, etc)
When was the last time you ever saw a horse break after the race was over? That could not have been more odd.
That is exactly the type of horse that normally would have made it to a walk, then been sore or lame cooling out or the next day. We see thousands of those.
Unfortunately for EB the first leg gave out about 5-10 seconds too soon, and the cascade of what followed resulted in her death.
Her races prior to Jan 21 were:
Dec 23 FG 1 mile 40 yards Alw race
Nov 30 FG 1 mile Alw race
Oct 30 Del 1 mile 70 yards MSW
Oct 15 Del 1 mile 1/16 MSW
Sep 16 Del 5.5f MSW
I can probably look up the workouts between races if you really need them.
Here are her preceding workouts prior to the Jan 21 race:
Nov 24 FG 3f 36b 2/22
Oct 7 Del 5f 100.1B 2/18
Sept 3 Del 3f 3B 2/7
Aug 28 Del 5f 100.3 Bg 5/14
Aug 12 Del 5f 104B 20/24
Jul 25 Del 5f 101.1 Bg 6/19
Jul 11 Del 4f 49Bg 2/33
That\'s as far back as I can go.