200 people...200? I feel for Jones and Mr. Porter...yeah, Louisville really loves has a passion for the fillies who give it up...I\'m very surprised by this. On the other hand, why wouldn\'t CD makeit during a real event? Heartstings tugging for sure since I\'ve seen her run most of her races, but gee whiz...200? Who planned this?
shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I feel for Jones and Mr.
> Porter...
Hate to be insensitive, but if Porter had listened to Jones and not run EB in
the Derby, there might have been no need for a memorial and you could have had
the pleasure of watching her run in Hot Springs again this winter.
EB\'s death was not in vain, as her demise focused further attention on drugs in
Racing. On Friday I read that the governor of Kentucky signed an emergency
order, the impact of which will be to bring about restrictions on the use of
steroids sooner rather than later in that state.
On a tangentially related matter, Kip Deville 5th at 50 cents on the dollar
in the Woodbine Mile today.
On another tangentially related matter, looking forward to betting against the
Big Brown pile of hype at Monmouth Saturday. I am looking for the public to buy
into this overrated animal and believe he will struggle running without the
benefit of steroids against decent older graded turf runners.
>> Hate to be insensitive, but if Porter had listened to Jones and not run EB in the Derby, there might have been no need for a memorial
Richibee, that makes no sense. Running on Saturday rather than Friday didn\'t cause her to break down.
>> EB\'s death was not in vain, as her demise focused further attention on drugs in Racing. On Friday I read that the governor of Kentucky signed an emergency
order, the impact of which will be to bring about restrictions on the use of
steroids sooner rather than later in that state.
As an aside, it would be nice to remember that Eight Belles didn\'t run on steroids.
It will soon become clear that steroids have little to nothing to do with breakdown rates.
It was terrible to hear Larry Jones\' voice break, see him tearing up talking about her. His love for the horse was obvious.
sighthound Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >> Hate to be insensitive, but if Porter had
> listened to Jones and not run EB in the Derby,
> there might have been no need for a memorial
>
> Richibee, that makes no sense. Running on
> Saturday rather than Friday didn\'t cause her to
> break down.
Sight, that might be true, but it is equally as speculative as my comment.
> >> EB\'s death was not in vain, as her demise
> focused further attention on drugs in Racing. On
> Friday I read that the governor of Kentucky signed
> an emergency
> order, the impact of which will be to bring about
> restrictions on the use of
> steroids sooner rather than later in that state.
>
> As an aside, it would be nice to remember that
> Eight Belles didn\'t run on steroids.
>
> It will soon become clear that steroids have
> little to nothing to do with breakdown rates.
I agree with you and defer to your knowledge on these matters. My personal
feeling is that unsoundness, lameness and eventually breakdowns are unavoidable
so long as breeders in their greed continue to dilute \"the product\".
> It was terrible to hear Larry Jones\' voice break,
> see him tearing up talking about her. His love
> for the horse was obvious.
I remember reading that Larry Jones, prior to the Derby, stated that he would
have preferred to run EB against fillies but that the owner preferred to go in
the Derby. That would have been a good time for Jones to show his love for the
filly by taking a stand against an owner who seems to lose a lot of perspective
when it comes to the Kentucky Derby (see Rockport Harbor, who Porter had John
Servis keep patching together and keep in training in an attempt to make the
Derby). If Porter had a Derby worthy colt this year, Eight Belles never would
have been entered in the Derby.
Porter has been a man possessed when it comes to the Derby. He has spent
millions at auction seeking Derby glory to match the success he has had with
fillies, among them Eight Belles, a Breeders Cup Distaff winner who cost me so
much money that her name escapes me, and the Grade I winner Jostle.
Porter\'s Derby obsession only grew when the Chapmans, also clients of John
Servis, pretty much bred and raised Smarty Jones in their backyard in PA. and
came up with a Derby winner.
Eight Bells\' number made her fit on paper for the Derby...
Ritchie I believe you\'re talking about Round Pond. I made a lot of $$$ on her on 2006, but it felt like blood money because I was cashing as Pind Island was dying and Fleet Indian had the busted suspensory. And at least we could save Fleet Indian, but she had to wait 5-10+ minutes for the ambulance to get to her. UNNACCEPTABLE.
That\'s one rule I wish the KHRB would change--allowing more than one equine and human ambulance on the track at one time, because don\'t even get me started on the horrific day at Keeneland last fall when the horse flipped in the paddock before the Phoenix and was dying right in front of me and they couldn\'t fit the ambulance in the paddock or find a vet to give some dormosedan or Torbugesic to the horse while he was seizing and bleeding from the nose and ears. Then Teuflesburg breaks down during the actual running of the race and it take the ambulance another 10 minutes to get out to him. All this while ESPN was live. I has PTSD when going to the paddock for more than a few days after that episode.
\"a Breeders Cup Distaff winner who cost me so
much money that her name escapes me, and the Grade I winner Jostle.\"
I think the Breeders Cup Distaff winner was \"Round Pond\" a couple years ago.
Though I agree with Shanahan, the breakdown of Eight Belles was clearly a freakish thing related to genetic unsoundness. Unbridled\'s Song\'s are brilliant but tender.
I\'d have to think that Hard Spun is some evidence that Porter has a way with colts too.
Minolan:
Round Pond is correct.
As to Eight Belle\'s number(s) going into the Derby, yes by the number she was a
contender. I believe she also may have had more preps going into the Derby than
any of her male counterparts.
What has been discussed frequently and intelligently on this board is that a low
number, or series of them, sometimes means it is time to stop on a runner or
suffer the consequences.
By no means am I saying that filies/mares should never be run against males. I
thought Rags to Riches was very well spotted in the 07 Belmont given her
bloodline and the fact that she was being matched against some rivals who had
every reason to be a bit tired (Curlin and Hard Spun). I was at CD for Genuine
Risk\'s win in the 1980 Derby and it is still one of my great memories in
racing, even though I backed the second and third place finishers.
Rick Porter is obsessed with the Derby. He tried to rush Rockport Harbor into
the Derby with various hoof ailments and luckily this talented grey was stopped
on before there was a serious injury. Porter threw Hard Spun into the Triple
Crown races, where he performed admirably, though many have contended that HS
would have been a champion at shorter distances.
Bottom line... with regards to Eight Belles, I feel a lot more sympathy for the
trainer with the cowboy hat than I do for the owner with the bow tie.
When will they have a memorial for former jockey Parker Buckley,40 yrs old, wife,two kids killed in a training accident on the racetrack.
Wonder when the congressional hearings will be held on jockey safety and related issues.Think the animal loons will show up?
Mike
Parker Buckley\'s death was a medical issue and not a training accident. Agree that jockey safety is an important issue but thought I would clarify your misrepresenting his death.
Frank
Frank,
You must be talking about a different Parker Buckley.This one died as a direct result of being thrown off an Asmussen horse at Saratoga
\"Exercise rider and former jockey Parker Buckley III died on Tuesday morning, one day after being thrown from a horse on the Oklahoma Training Track at Saratoga Race Course\"
Mike
Miff,
I read something different. The medical condition caused him to fall off the horse and eventually lead to his death, not the other way around.
Jim
Hi Jim,
Only read the following and did not know it was a pre existing condition if that is the case.
Thoroughbred Times
Posted: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 2:15 PM
Former jockey Buckley dies day after training accident
by Paul Post
Exercise rider and former jockey Parker Buckley III died on Tuesday morning, one day after being thrown from a horse on the Oklahoma Training Track at Saratoga Race Course.
Buckley, 40, was taken to Saratoga Hospital and then flown to Albany Medical Center Hosptial, where a CT scan revealed that he had blood on the brain and doctors placed him in a medically induced coma.
The accident occurred sometime between 8 a.m. and 8:30 a.m. EDT on Monday.
"I went down and visited with his family [who are from Fort Walton Beach, Florida]—his mother, sister, and aunt," trainer Steve Asmussen said Tuesday.
Asmussen said he did not personally witness the accident or know details of exactly what happened.
"I've heard all kinds of versions," he said
My understanding is that he suffered a stroke, then fell off the horse. Don\'t know if that has been confirmed.
I also heard what TGJB heard, for what it\'s worth. But Mike, good reference point to remind us. Thanks for reminding us of Parker.
I still don\'t understand (seriously) why some feel running a filly against colts could contribute to breakdown. It\'s done routinely and frequently in other countries.
A concern about \"overmatched\"? That occurs daily in horse racing. In this specific instance, this was a big filly whose numbers fit, and she indeed readily trounced many for second.
Look, veterinary science is identifying factors that generally contribute to breakdown (ex: track surface, toe grabs); and we have very sophisticated diagnostic technology available to monitor individual horses during their career (MRI, etc). Frankly I think we need more utilization of those modalities ($$$)
But these are still elite athletes pushed to the brink of their anatomy and physiology. I hope we can someday bring the number of breakdowns down to be equal to random chance, but don\'t count on it.
Last time I went down this road it caused a real s--tstorm, but...
To reprise my Derby seminar thoughts, I don\'t think the choice of races had anything to do with it. I think the 10 starts from September to the Derby while running really really fast did (count the starts for the other recent Derby starters over that period), and I think bearing in badly near the wire in the Fantasy was a signal that something was bothering her.
That at least makes sense. Although the number of starts for her age, and a 165lb ex rider is in favor of bone soundness. You know bearing I/O can occur due to subtle injury, or simply be muscle exhaustion (although some horse are simply one-sided, etc).
So tell me guys - how many of you here that own horses, if the same thing happened to one of your horses - how many of you would be willing to spend $800 - $1200 to try and make sure there wasn\'t a subtle problem? Not many are.
Especially if the horse cooled out fine, recovered fine, your vet went over the horse and couldn\'t find anything, it returned to galloping with vigor, and the regular rider felt nothing wrong?
I think as we get more sophisticated diagnostic capabilities close to/at the track (Ruffian Center, facilities in CA, etc) so horses don\'t have to ship, the use will go up, and the price will go down.
JB,
You forgot to reprise your thoughts on Big Brown. As I recall, he had either one or two races left in him after the Fla Derby and he was/is notorious for not running straight. What happened? No implosion, no breakdown, no nuthin!
Re Eight Belles, Dr.Bramlege(sp?),THE EXPERT, commented that he had never seen a breakdown like that and had NO explantion as to the cause for the simultaneous multi leg fractures.
It\'s beyond chutzpah that you think you know when something bad is going to happen to a runner from looking at spacing, fast figs or whatever.Guys in the racing Hall of Fame who are around these animals 60 hours week, sense nothing wrong, don\'t have a clue of impending disaster, but you do.Wow!!
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JB,
>
> You forgot to reprise your thoughts on Big Brown.
> As I recall, he had either one or two races left
> in him after the Fla Derby and he was/is notorious
> for not running straight. What happened? No
> implosion, no breakdown, no nuthin!
>
> Re Eight Belles, Dr.Bramlege(sp?),THE EXPERT,
> commented that he had never seen a breakdown like
> that and had NO explantion as to the cause for the
> simultaneous multi leg fractures.
>
> It\'s beyond chutzpah that you think you know when
> something bad is going to happen to a runner from
> looking at spacing, fast figs or whatever.Guys in
> the racing Hall of Fame who are around these
> animals 60 hours week, sense nothing wrong, don\'t
> have a clue of impending disaster, but you
> do.Wow!!
>
>
> Mike
Miff/Mike
One of the posters I thoroughly enjoy reading here is \"Chuck the Clown\". I haven\'t read anything from him in awhile and read rumor he may not be able to post due to a prediction that \"Denis of Cork\" was unsound and would not race again after the Belmont Stakes. That horse did come down with a post Belmont infirmity and may not race again, although I\'ve read the stable is hoping they can get him back next year.
Is there a penalty for predicting a horse will go bad if the horse runs on? What about Chuck the Clown\'s prediction? Or is such a thing off limits regardless of the outcome?
Jacimo -
Here\'s Chuckles\' prediction:
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,43554,43661#msg-43661
and TGJB\'s response:
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,43554,43691#msg-43691
Delta Lover:
Kip Deville\'s \"all empty\" Woodbine effort did not go totally unnoticed:
richiebee Wrote: (9/7/08)
-------------------------------------------------------
> On a tangentially related matter, Kip Deville 5th
> at 50 cents on the dollar
> in the Woodbine Mile today.
>
> On another tangentially related matter, looking
> forward to betting against the
> Big Brown pile of hype at Monmouth Saturday. I am
> looking for the public to buy
> into this overrated animal and believe he will
> struggle running without the
> benefit of steroids against decent older graded
> turf runners.
I made a comment. I am watching the usual suspects. I buried the comment
in a post about a different subject...and I can not wait to see if the Club
Kulina/IEAH unholy alliance will be able to (or willing to) put together a decent
field of turfers to face the Big Brown cold turkey.
Miff-- and yet, somehow, even without having their experience, I saw trouble coming with Eight Belles. To the point where I sent an email in MARCH trying to head it off. I\'m not giving details because I\'m not looking to embarrass anybody.
You\'ve been using our stuff for a long time. Do you remember my comments about Go For Wand before that BC? Very similar to what I said in the Derby Seminar about EB.
On BB-- before the Derby, I said the over/under was 2 more starts. That means the average result, not the limit. I\'m not claiming to be able to predict what day a horse will break down (and certainly don\'t root for them to, which is what got CTC barred. I used EB in the Derby). But after you\'ve been around a while, using the data and your common sense, and have dealt with a lot of trainers and horses, you get an idea of the percentages. It didn\'t have to be in the Derby-- but EB was an accident waiting to happen.
Once they dodged the big bullet with BB in the TC-- which ironically may have been helped by him not extending himself in the Belmont-- his connections had the chance to space his races. Which the connections of EB did not do.
JB,
Respectfully,with a national breakdown rate of app 2 per 1000 runners, it is probably nothing more than longshot coincidence. To think that anyone could pinpoint even a \"possible\" impending problem, from looking at performance data and not being around the horse daily, is way over the top, imo.
You are also dismissing that highly trained and experienced veterinary people are fairly constantly treating/caring for most of these high class horses who would \"present\" trouble no? The advancements in scanning etc, you already know and understand I am certain.
Mike
>>Miff-- and yet, somehow, even without having their experience, I saw trouble coming with Eight Belles. To the point where I sent an email in MARCH trying to head it off. I\'m not giving details because I\'m not looking to embarrass anybody.
I\'ll ask Larry why he didn\'t listen to you this week.
Sight-- that\'s not who I sent it to. It was someone in Kentucky who had a vested ineterest in the situation and credibility enough to be listened to, but was not directly connected to the horse. Don\'t know if they passed it on, and that\'s as far as I\'m going.
Jerry may I ask what specifically in her pattern worried you? Running very fast in a short amount of time without significant rest? Maybe I can use the same sort of insight with our own horses...
Thanks.
Miff-- an owner I worked with used to call certain injuries light bulbs-- they\'re okay until they\'re not, then they\'re completely shot.
a) you can\'t always find the problem, even when it\'s clear something is wrong by the way a horse is performing. I\'ve been down that road a lot. A Hall of Fame trainer I worked with once said, \"I\'m going to run him back fast to make him SHOW me what\'s wrong. That way we can deal with it\".
The new scans help a lot. But they cost money,and not everyone believes in them. There are some Old School guys out there.
b) As you well know, trainers often push horses even when there\'s a problem. This is especially true when you are talking about making the Derby. Let me know the next time a trainer says to the press, \"He had a problem, but we ran him anyway\".
Or a vet tells the press \"He broke down because he was overraced\".
c) A few years ago someone posted a study on this site showing strong correlation between furlongs worked and raced over a calendar period with chance of a breakdown. If anyone can find it, I would appreciate it.
d) yeah, I hit a couple of 500-1 shots.
In the Derby EB was making her 10th start since September. Off the top of my head I think only a couple of others in the race were even making their 7th or 8th.
She was also running at an unbelievably high level-- the faster they run the more stress they put on themselves, which is why I try to give horses extra time off big efforts. Keeping in mind that fillies average 3 points slower than colts, she had run an incredibly stressful string of races in a short period. And she bore in badly near the wire in her last start before the Derby-- watch the head-on of Dominguez pulling her head at almost a right angle to keep her off the other filly.
Afterwards I went back to check a couple of previous years\' Derbies. Lawyer Ron was making his 10th start since September, and he also went bad in the race, but not fatally-- he came back pretty good. Two Kaplan horses also had run that much and survived, but they weren\'t running nearly as fast.