Good thing it wasn\'t something better on the lead or Curlin gets beat
This was a dreadful performance.
They have no choice but to go to the BC Classic now.
If not it will look like they are ducking Big Brown
Is there any chance that the horse that had the lead and finished second is actually an improving horse? It looked like Curlin was a very tired horse after the race as he was pulling up.
Perhaps the weight of being responsible for having received the key to the city of Saratoga was too much for the colt. The horse appears to have lost his mojo despite all the PR and hype.
Maybe with the anticipated crackdown on steroids, we are already starting to see the effects on some horses/barns that have been known to indulge in these practices. Both Big Brown and now Curlin, looked to be struggling against perceived sub-par fields.
Will be interesting to see the fig. That last 1/8 was really plowhorse time.
The bright side is, it was 14.01 not 14.19
We are in the \"Ben Johnson\" era of great horses.
If Commentator wins his next impressively he should be champion older horse and Zenyatta is now the favorite for Horse of the Year. She is doing it the right way.
The argument that the runnerup is an improving type is baseless as \"need the lead\" Wanderin Boy was still close after chasing fast fractions.
Curlin has some catching up to do if he wants consideration for post season awards. This was a juiceless performance today if there ever was one.
Hey \"Experts\":
Not a word here on how Curlin galloped out. Not a word on how he looked coming
back to the winners circle. Not a word on how he looked in the winners circle,
how deep the groove around his spine was or whether his veins were bursting out
of his skin or any of the other old folksy ways to tell if an animal is
exhausted.
I watched the race on TVG (sound off, even for Durkin\'s call)(TD my opinion has
lost a couple of MPHs off his fastball, hope is health is OK). Did TVG discuss
the fact that Curlin was probably only 85- 90% for this race? (all he had to be
given the competition). It looked like Curlin also saved little ground and got
rodeo\'d on the first turn, and the chart confirms this.
STEROIDS-- Good Point. The great Steroid Withdrawal of 2008/2009 will make
handicapping more challenging. If Racing (whoever that is)really cared about
horseplayers, as many horses of racing age which possibly could would be tested
for Steroids before a certain date,and it would be known which runners will be
entered \"cold turkey\" once the various steroid restrictions take effect.
DUCKING-- Silver Charm wants Curlin to run in the BC Classic so it does not
appear that Curlin is \"Ducking\" the Big Brown pile of hype. I say that BB and
the I Exude Absolute Hypocrisy stables pulled the major duck when they avoided
the Travers Stakes, which while comprised of a lot of colts BB had already
beaten, was a much more challenging race than the Eddie Haskell at the Club
Kulina. And before I call IEAH a genius operation, I would love to know why
BB\'s final prep for the BC Synthetic Classic (sponsored by Posturepedic) (after
Steroid Withdrawal, Racing will be looking for more forgiving surfaces) will
not be held on a synthetic surface.
THE MONMOUTH TURF RACE FOR BIG BROWN IN SEPTEMBER-- I do not think it is savory
when racehorse ownership and racetrack management are in cahoots. I am
currently not able to access Monmouth\'s condition book. Is this a handicap race?
What if some top notch turfers nominate to face BB? (I\'ve heard Einstein and
Shaklis). If the race is a handicap, I wouldn\'t be surprised if some of the
better contenders are weighted unfairly. If the presence of Big Brown is worth
300K additional purse money, BB should not have any weight advantage. I wouldn\'t
have any problem if the race is weight for age.My secret hope is that the Euros
send over some second stringers and dominate the race.
My opinion is that the Eddie Haskell was BB\'s last hurrah, as stiffer
competition, steroid withdrawal and his documented fragility take their toll.
BB is a very good 3YO who was made to look brilliant! while running against
inconsistent, mediocre rivals. Just one man\'s opinion.
Richie,
I watched the race from the first turn and 1)Watched Curlin getting bounced around pretty hard heading for the backside, and 2) really did not much \"galloping out\" from him after the race. I have only seen the race twice(no head-on view), but he was 4-5 wide on the first turn, and it looked like he was wide down the backstretch. This did not help his cause.
Mig
Ritchie,
You are making a big deal out of Steroids and the Monmouth condition book.
I agree on the latter. I heard it is restricted to Non-Winners on turf. Einstein showing up.. Midnight Cry owns him and a piece of Curlin.
Hmmmmmm IEAH would never do anything like that.
The Great Steroid Debate should not be restricted to Curlin. Bill Mott is 3-80, Bob Baffert 2-50, Teflon Todd is on this weeks Without A Trace after opening the Spa Meet quite well.
Curlin and Big Brown are not the only two horses being weaned off of drugs.
Nobody is hitting 70 homers this year and baseball is doing quite well. Racing will be fine.
The BC will be full of full fields and \"clean\" horses. Those that do not show we will know why.........
Everyone is under suspicion.
This is posted on the Crist Blog. First Defence goes 7F in 1.21 and gets a 109 and Curlin walks home the next 2F in 28 and gets a 112.
SAY WHAT
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> If Commentator wins his next impressively he
> should be champion older horse
Commentator winning horse of the year will never happen.
\"Will be interesting to see the fig. That last 1/8 was really plowhorse time\".
Box,
Beyer app 112,TG app neg-3, the sometimes strange results of the projection methodology which do not appear to stack up with what you just saw. Doesn\'t matter that he staggered on his belly late and they ran the last 3/8ths in 39.73.The poster example of an \"ugly\" fig.
Mike
Lost Cause. You are aptly named.
Commentator has lost once this year when hooked in a speed duel in the Met Mile while spotting weight. If he is not under consideration after another win and say the Cigar Mile then the system is broken.
Themig Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie,
> I watched the race from the first turn and
> 1)Watched Curlin getting bounced around pretty
> hard heading for the backside, and 2) really did
> not much \"galloping out\" from him after the race.
> I have only seen the race twice(no head-on view),
> but he was 4-5 wide on the first turn, and it
> looked like he was wide down the backstretch. This
> did not help his cause.
> Mig
Sounds like Big Brown\'s Belmont trip.
Somebody a lot smarter than me will have to explain how one horse suffers more of a negative impact from steroid deprivation than another, because if all horses are off steroids, why is one horse suspected of not performing as well with his \"juice?\' Should they not all have more or less the same impact from the roids having been taken away?
I think that both Curlin and Big Brown have lost their mojo because the former was switched to turf, had his training changed and he is not back in the groove, while the latter\'s problems are well documented.
At their best earlier in the season, they were both tremendous. Now they are not. I don\'t think steroids has anything to do with it.
The 112 for Curlin is preposterous.
Themig Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie,
> I watched the race from the first turn and
> 1)Watched Curlin getting bounced around pretty
> hard heading for the backside, and 2) really did
> not much \"galloping out\" from him after the race.
> I have only seen the race twice(no head-on view),
> but he was 4-5 wide on the first turn, and it
> looked like he was wide down the backstretch. This
> did not help his cause.
> Mig
good points mig.
make Curlin 2w/2w without the traffic on the 1st turn, and he runs 1:48, maybe even 1:47 and change.
I know virtually nothing about the effects of medications and steroids on horses other than what can be determined using the PPs and stats. However, over the last couple of years I often suggested that some of the supposed \"move up\" and \"super\" trainers did it in a way that intuition suggested to me involved steroids or a steroid like substance. I felt that way because I really didn\'t see many \"Oscar like\" trainers. They didn\'t move them up in 5 days. They were typically out for between 5 and 10 weeks and came back looking great. That never seemed to be the \"magic bullet\" type move up to me (even though I\'m sure other things are going on also). It seemed more like a reconditioning process that some horsemen could both accomplish \"and afford\" when they took horses from some other trainers.
If steroids have been such a big factor (and I don\'t know that to be the case), then many of the accusations that have been tossed around so liberally may need to be re-evaluated considering steroids were legal.
\"The 112 for Curlin is preposterous\".
Barry,
Studied this phenomenon for many years, it\'s called \"projection voodoo\"and is based on preconceived notions about what a horse \"should\" run as opposed to what he actually runs. Most times, the better the horse, the more benefit of the doubt given.
Mike
miff,
I haven\'t looked at the results yet. So I don\'t know if Beyer broke the Curlin race out to get to a 112. If he did, the implication is that the track slowed down a bit. This kind of thing often reveals a huge problem in logic \"when the race also had a relatively fast pace\".
If the track slowed down, that means the fractions were even faster than they looked and the front runners ran even better than the figures they were assigned.
I have a very difficult time believing that Past the Point and Wanderin Boy are monsters. IMHO, they both ran very good races, but it is highly unlikely that they could have run a very fast pace and pretty fast final time like a 112 would suggest. More likely is that the final time was slowish because the front runners exahusted themselves to some degree and Curlin did not run especially fast in his victory (unadjusted for his trip). It is even possible that to a lesser degree Curlin was impacted by chasing them to get into contention during the very hot middle.
Steroids do not make you hallucinate now it may be PCP or in Beyer\'s case high blood pressure pills...
Fkach,
Years ago someone (Paul Westphal??) once said 75% of the guys in the NBA were using Blow. Was his number right? Should he have said it?
Were Steroids illegal in baseball? Why then were Barry Bonds/Roger Clemons and company lying when asked about them. Why did they not just say yes we used them?
I mentioned some names in a previous post. If they used Steroids did they cheat if they were legal? The answer is no. Are their horses performing poorly now because they are not using them? We do not know that.
Here is where the Westphal comment is tied in. It becomes guilt by association. Every guy you look at that has a bad night, a bad day, a bad meet it is because he was using juice. Or now he is not.
The innocent guys get pulled in with the guilty guys.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The innocent guys get pulled in with the guilty
> guys.
That\'s the bitch about using evidence instead of hard proof. Can\'t have it both ways, where it convicts the guys we don\'t like, while the guys we do like get a free pass.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Will be interesting to see the fig. That last 1/8
> was really plowhorse time\".
>
> Box,
>
> Beyer app 112,TG app neg-3, the sometimes strange
> results of the projection methodology which do not
> appear to stack up with what you just saw. Doesn\'t
> matter that he staggered on his belly late and
> they ran the last 3/8ths in 39.73.The poster
> example of an \"ugly\" fig.
>
>
> Mike
Does any serious player give a rats behind what # Beyer gives? I give anything he assigns 10 points of \'legroom\' in either direction.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lost Cause. You are aptly named.
>
> Commentator has lost once this year when hooked in
> a speed duel in the Met Mile while spotting
> weight. If he is not under consideration after
> another win and say the Cigar Mile then the system
> is broken.
The problem with that comment is that Commentator has only won his other races this year when left alone on relatively easy or loose leads..
In your honest opinion...If you look deep down..do you believe that horse @ 1 1/8th miles could ever beat Curlin or for that matter Heatseeker if he were still running ..Never...That horse can only win races when left alone on the lead..If the other speed does not break badly in the Whitney nobody would be talking about Commentator right now..HE is a good horse but he is not top notch at least not in my eyes..
Great points on the steroids Barry. While some small barns or really old-school trainers might not have used steroids or used them selectively, you have to figure that most of the horses Curlin has been facing were from connections that could afford them and used them to compete at the highest levels. So, if he\'s off of them (as we\'re speculating), they\'re off them too. Makes sense to me, though of course we don\'t have proof of any of it. The patterns (so to speak) wil lbe easier to spot looking back a couple years from now when the game is hopefully cleaner. Hopefully.