Sometimes I forget.
Speaking of stupid, is there some good reason that 8th race winner was let off at over 20-1 as the only legit speed in the race and possessing strong back pace lines? So she beat \'cheaper\' last.
I\'m thinking I\'ve once again overrated the handicapping prowess of New York players. Bad sheet #\'s or something? I didn\'t see them.
Wowwas that a nice one.
I keyed in the double and tri
what did you have on em?
200 wp also
Having worked with Jan, she is anything but incompetent. You try doing her job sometime.
Watch the people doing that job at other tracks, you want to see weak.
I find that over time, her commentary will cost you money. Most of the patter is worth nothing and can\'t be monetized. Lots of breeding stuff that will have you using 9 of 10 starters.
In the stake the other day she got all worked up over the winning shipper supposedly \'walking short\'.
Scored.
I didn\'t say the job was easy, but I\'ve heard others that do it much better. Caton Bredar an example from the past. I\'m not sure she\'s still in action.
I listen to Rushton because she MIGHT have some info, but filtering out the bad calls and distractions is more work than the occasional
gem is worth. (I won\'t even mention the hats.)
If anyone else thinks I\'m off base here, I\'ll be happy to entertain the reasons.
Jan may not be that articulate but she has a good racing eye and often gives some good insight. Her job is tough when she is trying to track down 6-7 trainers in a few minutes to ask for info.Today she pointed out that Cagey Girl and Yield Bogey were extremely wild and uncomfortable being saddled,semi- automatic tosses, both won.Sometimes things happen at the track that defy sharp eyes and good knowledge.
Jan incompetent, not even close, she probably knows more about looking at horses than 99% of the people who look at them for clues.
Mike
P.S. I would not bet 5cents on any horse walking short nor would anyone with an informed racing eye.
Both Caton and Jan worked with me on Post Time, Jan was just starting out, and Caton has always been great. When you find someone beside Jan who tells the public that a horse has just had a throat operation-- the single most significant piece of inside information you can have-- let me know. Her info on first timers is not perfect, but it\'s also pretty good.
Try to come up with comments on half the field every race. Seriously, try it yourself, for one entire card.
Then try it with one of those hats on.
By the way, she has a degree in animal medicine from a pretty good ACC school.
I probably should have said that listening to her observations will put you off many a winner that you otherwise might have liked, and not save you from a loser often enough.
You decide what that should be called.
I agree 100%. But you\'d think Jan would have figured out by now what means something IN REALITY and what doesn\'t.
If you had a friend in your ear putting the knock on so many winners , you\'d kick him in the butt.
She seems to know when a horse is \"hot\" pre-race better than most. Her comments on lathered up horses in the paddock and the throat operation puts her above the rest.
I of course play at a track where its over a hundred degrees a lot and people say \"he\'s sweating\". Great, thanks....I\'m sweating....
Compared to what most of the other ladies at other tracks do, I think she is the most valuable to the bettor. I disregard what she says about a horse\'s appearance or stuff that you can see in the DRF or in TG, however I do pay close attention to what she says about what the TRAINERS have told her.
She was an exercise rider for Shug. What else do you need to know to give her any street cred? You try and do her job sometime (in a crazy hat I might add!).
An exercise rider is something of an understatement. Jan was the go-to exercise rider for every single one of the top horses (many Eclipse winners) that Shug had in the early nineties, give or take a couple of years.
With all due respect , none of this supposed expertise has anything to do with making pre race observations as they relate to the ACTUAL RESULTS of races. It\'s not a horse show.
If some minor washiness, paddock antics, \'beautifulness\' or any of the other common observations that are made, had anything to do with winning, then I assume Jerry would be keeping track of it in the same way he keeps track of all the other minutiae.
I\'ve been around a long time , and much of what passes for significant observation is just so much noise and worth nothing at the windows.
Lets put it this way, This one was won on pace. The sheets numbers were slower than many in the field. seems liek the turf is firming up finally and speed may be hanging on with the jocks letting races go like Keeneland early Poly races.
Just one mans observations. two of last three were won W2W.
NCT
PS Lets leave Jan alone. She is clearly a NYRA icon now. She is actually not all that bad and certainly better than lets say Mike Battaglia at KEE. At least more pleasing to ones eyesight.
NYRA is coming off 8 months of awful racing at all 3 of its facilities and
people are focusing on Jan the Mad Hatter Rushton. Rather unsettling.
I\'d like to hear from Charles Hayward and PJ Campo. I\'d like to hear them
explain to me how 30%- 40% of the races run at NYRA year round are for maidens.
I\'ll even let Hayward and Campo explain to me how their data shows that
horseplayers dont mind watching and betting maiden races.
I love it that people are giving NYRA a free pass because they are bankrupt and
working without a contract. Poor NYRA! Reminds me of the people who were
sympathetic to the Menendez Brothers because they were orphans.
I\'d like for DRF to run past performances (or even entries) from Saratoga in
1978, 1988 and 1998 for the purpose of comparing Racing at the Spa then and now.
Actually DRF is the last place to see editorializing and analysis concerning
the poor quality of racing in NY and elsewhere, because while it might be
responsible and informative journalism, it wouldn\'t make much business sense.
The quality of Racing will only get worse over the next 12- 24 months as 1/2 of
America\'s trainers and a good deal of their horses suffer through steroid
withdrawal.
\"I\'d like for DRF to run past performances (or even entries) from Saratoga in
1978, 1988 and 1998 for the purpose of comparing Racing at the Spa then and now.
Actually DRF is the last place to see editorializing and analysis concerning
the poor quality of racing in NY and elsewhere, because while it might be
responsible and informative journalism, it wouldn\'t make much business sense\"
...DRF and NYRA are now joined at the hip at the higest level of both organizations!
Mike
TVG\'s inane focus on their talking heads\' pick six tickets aside, their paddock interviews with trainers are pretty good at times. Better than anything I\'ve seen from the track simulcast hosts.
Miff:
Steve Crist is a racing historian, a racing fan, a horse lover and a horseplayer.
He will make the occasional pointed yet brief comment about the laughable state
of NY racing, but will obviously not fire at NYRA/Hayward with both barrels.
I have stated in the past that Steve Crist could do a lot for racing in the
next five years if he could step away from DRF and get involved with the
improvement and preservation of quality racing in the United States. He has
the background, the knowledge, the connections and maybe most importantly a
passion for both sides (racing) (wagering)of the sport.
The other man who could whip NY or US racing into shape is Sheik-a- Mo.
They need to do something - and the one move they could make to juice things up right away would be to put the slots in at the Big A already. If they did that and...took a month off in the wintertime...I think they would be in much better shape practically overnight.
Personally I don\'t play slots (I prefer betting on something where I can delude myself into thinking I can figure things out), but I see plenty of examples where this has worked...
Either that or they need to close Aqueduct as a live track, build condos there in the infield, and maintain it as a 24/7 simulcast facility/slot and casino joint. I bet there are some folks who would want to have a apt./timeshare next to such a place. Could be a new retirement mecca! I\'ll be the old guy in plaid shorts and sandals with socks...
HP
>> If some minor washiness, paddock antics, \'beautifulness\' or any of the other >>common observations that are made, had anything to do with winning,
You really don\'t think washiness, paddock antics, conformation or being dappled out have anything to do with winning?
>>I\'ve been around a long time , and much of what passes for significant >>observation is just so much noise and worth nothing at the windows.
Guess one has to know how to use it. Anybody who saw Shakis - even just on television - before his last race, and knew what they were looking at, immediately moved him to the top of their play.
sighthound Wrote:
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> Guess one has to know how to use it. Anybody who
> saw Shakis - even just on television - before his
> last race, and knew what they were looking at,
> immediately moved him to the top of their play.
Dunno, after watching probably 250k post parades in my time, I may have a vague idea of what counts.
And cherry picking a winner who looked sharp is not proof of anything.
Make a list of how many times she talks up the looks of horses, and divide the winners by that #.
Can we say small fraction.
I\'ve found Jan very accurate over the years, in covering in her paddock show which horses should be watched. She certainly knows what she\'s looking at.
Your actual mileage varies.
Different wording,but same concept TG applies to each individual figure.Consistent
observation of a horse and it\'s behavior and visual appearance is certainly
worth merit.Without seeing the 2 prior characteristics on a consistent basis
a person could be easily fooled.Case in point: Blackie Daw was a local stakes
horse running in Maryland in the 80\'s and he literally would fall asleep in the
paddock stall prior to saddling.Upon exiting the paddock I overheard a few
people discounting his chances due to \"looking\" lifeless. So much for \"what they
don\'t know won\'t hurt them\".
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> PS Lets leave Jan alone. She is clearly a NYRA
> icon now. She is actually not all that bad and
> certainly better than lets say Mike Battaglia at
> KEE. At least more pleasing to ones eyesight.
Don\'t forget better on the ears too. Is their a worse person to listen to than that guy?? Thats a guy that can bring back the days of announcerless races.
A Boscar, you can always stop listening.
Most of these talking heads/public handicappers are usually horrible, why would Jan be any different? Besides we go through the trouble of compiling information not readily available to the tourists/novices,we wouldn\'t want that info freely dispersed. I do believe that the public handicappers are better than thier published results. If they bet a horse based on its sheet # He/She won\'t disclose that fact publicly.
What kind of rack does she have? To store all of those hats she wears.
Ease up on Jan. She is attractive, knows the sport and the people, speaks well and has earned her stripes.
Exactly my point. I think a commentator should have respect for what they may not know , and try not to inject unreliable conclusions into the patter.
The job is to impart information, not create biases one way or the other about the runners.
I was watching a few Del Mar casts and the guy they have doing the show there seems ok, though its a small sample of observations.
Clemson
Richie, I like Steve Crist too. He\'s a good guy and he has good ideas---but the problem with all this stuff is how are you going to get the management of every racetrack/state in the country to give up their power to some \"racing czar\"? It ain\'t happening, so there\'s no one person who can take over and solve anything.
Also, as far as whey they run all those maiden races...those are the ones that fill. The high-level dirt races get 5-horse fields, the maidens get 10 or 12 horses. Simple as that.
I just wanted to add that I\'m sure I\'m not telling you anything you don\'t know, but we do have to look at the basic reality of the situation here, however bleak it is.
JMA:
One of the only things that people seem to agree on in Racing is that Racing
would benefit from some manner of centralization/unification. Agreed that
logistically it would be a nightmare to bring about this unification.
As to the maiden races. In August, 37% of all the races run at the Spa were for
maidens, and a majority of the cards featured 4 or 5 maiden races. My oft
stated opinion is that each year there are fewer and fewer outfits shipping in
to Saratoga from other states. The reason: the Saratoga and Belmont condition
books are filled with races written for horses bred in New York and \"approved
by the Registry\" as they say. If there weren\'t so many stalls allocated to
animals produced by the NY \"Greeders\", I think a lot of owners and trainers
would embrace the Spa as they had in the past and we would see a return of
quality racing.
One encouraging sign -- and I am only being slightly facetious-- is that as the
roster of racetracks continues to dwindle by attrition, it will be that much
easier to bring about unification.
The upside of this is the commentator\'s remarks could possibly enhance the odds
of the eventual winner.When Kent D. was establishing himself in Maryland he
dominated and every horse he rode was slightly overbet. A few days prior to
the Fritchie handicap he stated for the press that his mount(kathleen the queen)
would beat Safely Kept.Laughable at best,but the majority of the crowd bought it
and not only was SK odds greater so was the horse who ran second.Who btw was NOT
Kent\'s mount.To make the best possible decision as a handicapper,I feel I must
sift through ALL the info I can obtain.I don\'t know Jan Rushton and I don\'t recall
tuning in to her comments,but \"to err is human\".From what I\'ve heard she sounds
like a good person and very educated and trying to do a very arduous task.The great Ben Hogan became great by listening to all the advice,but not necessarily
adhering to it all.
With Respect,
Flighted Iron
1) I despise Battaglia and have for decades
2) No, I can\'t stop listening.
jma11473 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Also, as far as whey they run all those maiden
> races...those are the ones that fill. The
> high-level dirt races get 5-horse fields, the
> maidens get 10 or 12 horses. Simple as that.
JMA:
Points well taken, though I think that turf races will always fill, all conditions, all distances.
Sunday\'s Saratoga card has a split personality. The first 6 races show what has been wrong with Saratoga for the last couple of years. The first 6 include 2 5-1/2 furlong turf sprints, 4 MSWs, and 2 NYB races.
I like the late P4 better-- an overnight stake, 2 graded stakes and a claiming race on the turf-- no NYBs, no maidens, no turf sprints.
For 46 weeks of the year, the SS NYRAtanic (currently on their seventh extension) has every right and every reason to card the races with the biggest fields.
For 6 weeks of the year, NYRA has an obligation that comes with the privilege of operating what is arguably the premier racing meet in NA-- that obligation is to present the best racing possible, to showcase the best runners in all divisions, to present racing cards which have some diversity in terms of surface, gender, class level and distance.
The first step to this is to tell the NY Greeders that NYB racing will be put on the back burner for 6 weeks. Tell the NYGs to go back to the farm for the summer and breed some more slow rats or find some more underqualified stallions.
As I have said before, if you are going to fill good races, you have to write good races and have the horses stabled on the backside that are eligible for these races. If you write a lot of turf sprints for NYB maidens, and fill the stable areas with this sort of runner, that is the sort of race which will be run in the afternoon.