Serveral horses have the number power, Colonel John although slower, has a nice line, and looks set to move foward and I also thing Cool Coal Man can be right there off the top nine weeks ago, looks set to move foward, zito only helps, 15-1 looks good.
Rich
I agree with the read on Colonel John. The big question being, though, is he a poly horse, or can he continue to forge forward on the saragoga dirt. I think he can, especially at 8-1 morning line. Tiznow loved the dirt, the Colonel ran \"OK\" in the derby, so I\'ll be playing him to win at anything better than 4-1.
Looking back at Tizbig\'s races, he\'s not a \"need the lead\" type. In fact, he will really have to push if he plans on keeping pace with Da\'Tara.
One thing\'s for sure, LaPenta & Zito have three in here so Da\'Tara will no doubt gun to the lead.
Da\'Tara will take em\' as far as he can. Albert the Great part II. My choice at overlayed odds.
Harlem Rocker looks ready to run big and maybe also Court Vision. CJ is a must use also
This race is often won by a horse who was a leading 3YO earlier in the year. Pyro fits the bill.
I disagree JR.
What about:
Java Gold
Wise Times
Will\'s Way
Thunder Rumble
Deputy Commander
Unshaded
Ten Most Wanted
Flower Alley
ALL late developers.
Pyro, Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Harlem Rocker and Court Vision. Box in tris and Supers and then key on Pyro and Colonel John in a couple of other bets. One of the best betting races in a long time.
One of the best betting races in a long time and your keying in on the favorite.
How did you come up with the name Lost Cause?
Thats a lot of boxing. Find a key and go from there.
Tiznow was also a late developer (understatement of the year?) and ran a 3 pt top late Aug in the Pacific Classic.
page 91:
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bc2000.pdf (https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bc2000.pdf)
Giving his 3 offspring in here a long look. Tizbig, the fastest of the 3 so far, will be a kajillion to one for the giant killer, and the other 2 are G1 winners and should offer decent value given the last race disappointments for both, and they all have great posts in a big field with potential for a slow paced/tightly packed race.
Leaning towards using Da\'Tara as primary key assuming he\'ll be north of 10-1; little chance to have bad trip excuses unlike many in here and certainly distance proven.
I\'m gonna play Mambo over Da Tara/Cool Coal/Colonel John.
Then Colonel John over Da Tara/Cool Coal/Mambo and have some rooting interest.
Good luck to all.
Anyone remember the last horse to wire a Travers field???
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Anyone remember the last horse to wire a Travers
> field???
>
Is this the warmup question?
2006 Travers (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gtq652Uxlqc)
Exactly!
Priors were Medaglia D\'Oro and Coronado\'s Quest. It takes more than a fluke horse to accomplish this.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
For 6 out of the past 8 Travers, the front runner either won or placed. I don\'t see an anti-speed bias.
Nice work for this,but I\'m thinking DaTara peaked on Belmont Day.
TOE with too many excuses and never any punch in the lane going long.His post helps-maybe he can suck along for a check.If Joe B isn\'t too enthused about him-how can I be?
Colonel John is my choice from the inside with a pair up or top.I like Mambo but I\'m counting on Albarado to lose every inch of ground possible from the 9 hole.Tres Borrachos needs to be very long-at least his ML or higher,but he could jump up off the pair of 4\'s and hit the board.Baze might be able to get him over from the 10 with his tactical speed to save some ground.Ecton Park threw in a good race or two as a late summer and fall 3yo(Super Derby?)
The chalk looks too tough in the Victory Ride.
Trying to talk myself into 4yo Distorted Reality in the Bernard Baruch.Needs a clean trip with JR and that last dirt work was encouraging.A little improvement might get him home in his 5th start of the year.
Kodiak Cowboy figures to get another great setup in the Kings Bishop.
Unfortunately, I\'m on the Colonel John bandwagon. I probably overestimated him a little in the spring, but he didn\'t run as poorly in the Derby as it looks - especially relative to some of these others. He had a tougher trip. This is the one horse whose connections have had the Travers in mind ever since the Derby. His first race back looks like a perfect prep for a new peak. He should get decent position in a race that doesn\'t look like it has a lot of \"quality\" speed other than perhaps D\'Tara (who should run a lot better today). If he\'s anywhere near his morning line I\'m going to have to use him, but obviously this is a wide open affair. IMO, someone is going to step forward today.
Funny how few are on Rocker. We haven\'t seen his best yet!
Court Vision is out.
Bob Baffert once said when Garrett Gomez is riding down the stretch he looks like he is tossing salad. Well I am tossing Colonel John.
The Jim Dandy was a weak prep.
Mambo in Seattle has been really cranked down on in the mornings since July and responded seriously in his last race. He will need it again today but 42% New Top chance in the Thoro-pattern is to good to pass up on an late improving three year old.
Whoever the Croatian guy was that Phelps beat a week ago on Friday night that is how I feel.
Five Wide Trip while the winner saves all the ground, knocks over a couple of runners getting out and gets the bob-of-the-year.
I feel like a punching bag now........
There was NO WAY I was taking 4-1 on Colonel John, 5-1 on Mambo in Seattle, or 7/2 on Pyro.
Da\'Tara did get loose, he just wasn\'t good enough.
Congratulations to everyone who had it. I didn\'t.
Nice call fkach.
The Colonel got back all my derby money I lost on him...and then some.
Man, those West Coast horses are so bad.
Halo Fire Wrote:
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> There was NO WAY I was taking 4-1 on Colonel John,
> 5-1 on Mambo in Seattle, or 7/2 on Pyro.
>
> Da\'Tara did get loose, he just wasn\'t good
> enough.
>
> Congratulations to everyone who had it. I didn\'t.
after the draw, this was all about two horses - MiS and Col John. I have been so disgusted with Albarado that it didn\'t matter who won.
I don\'t blame you for not liking the win numbers on the top two, I didn\'t either. you can\'t argue with the $86 exacta and $1785 super though.
Coronado\'s Quest
Only got to see the race once and wasn\'t watching the winner, however, from the chart comments it looks like the west coast jockey gets the credit, not the horse. Second horse will get a bigger fig, and others had problems.
JB,
Will be interesting to see what creative license you take with this pathetically slow but exciting Travers, 2.03.20,on a fast surface.Understand there is no other route to compare.Hopkins/Beyer flirting in the low 100\'s which seems generous to me on that surface.
More confirmation of the very common 3yr colt crop(except BB).
Agree,the Great Garret Gomez willed CJ home the last eighth with his usual strong late handling.Nice run by the extremely wide Harlem Rocker.
Mike
I didn\'t bet the race; Colonel John was way too short on the tote board for my taste. Wouldn\'t have the # anyway; I hated the 9 probably more due to Albarado the anchor. BTW; that\'s how good Curlin is.
Not surprising that Colonel John won since they ran the race in polytrack fractions....24\'s through the initial 6 furlongs on a lightening fast track. They should have run this one on the Mellon.
Still waiting for Edgar Prado to let Tale of Ekati run. He breaks on top and ends up ahead of 1 horse (Amped) by the time they round the clubhouse turn. Then he rushes him up to be in a position he should have been in anyway. He got soundly bumped by Colonel John at the quarter pole, then just stopped.
Great job by Gomez. He\'s the best and proved it yesterday. No way CJ wins with any other rider on his back.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Halo Fire Wrote:
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> One of the best betting races in a long time and
> your keying in on the favorite.
>
> How did you come up with the name Lost Cause?
I hear ya!!!..
Only collected the Tri and Super..How did you do? I\'m not a fave player normally but I had a feeling there would be so much money in this pool it would have value...The two Faves exacta (Pyro and Colonel) was paying $60.00,
Hats off to Garrett, I don\'t know how he beat Mambo, oh wait Albarado..
If you had the tri. and super, congratulations. However, you mentioned five horses and NO Mambo in Seattle.
How did I do? I keyed Da\'Tara at 13-1. AND he did get loose. 23.4, :48, 1:12. No excuse.
Harlem Rocker wasn\'t bred to win races like the Travers.Even at 1 1/8th he might not be at his best.
Turn him back as a closing sprinter then look at the Cigar Mile.If he\'s around next year maybe the Met Mile.Seems to me those are the kind of races where they might be able to pick off a Grade 1.
Big,
Agree Harlem Rocker may be better going shorter but so called distance breeding seems to be a thing of the past with many modern day horses outrunning their pedigree.
Mike
P-Dub Wrote:
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> Nice call fkach.
>
> The Colonel got back all my derby money I lost on
> him...and then some.
>
> Man, those West Coast horses are so bad.
Thanks. No anti west coast bias here. I live in NY and was a Sunday Silence fan. ;-)
I was confident he was going to run well and get a good trip yesterday, but it was a tough spot to feel confident he was going to win. I cut my bet back a little at 4-1, but I\'ll take it. The trip was good, but not perfect. He actually had some trouble out of the gate and got banged around a few times turning for home. Others also had eventful trips though.
The reason I stayed with him at 4-1 was that I didn\'t like Pyro much \"to win\" as a deep closer in a race without a lot of quality speed and Harlem Rocker\'s reputation was made off a pretty easy trip in the Withers. I haven\'t been much of a fan of TOE or the Wood field (other than War Pass) either.
I thought the track was a little strange yesterday. Horses were winning from everywhere. It didn\'t seem like much of a disadvantage to loop or an advantage to be inside.