Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on August 17, 2008, 05:22:01 PM

Title: Proud Spell out of Breeders Cup
Post by: Silver Charm on August 17, 2008, 05:22:01 PM
You can not blame Larry Jones. This is Turf Racing not Dirt.

The BC did a great job of building a tremendous event over about 18 years and now is about to nearly kill it. The bad weather last year at Monmouth (which could not be helped) caused a drastic cut in wagering. This year will be worse. If its random people will play the lottery or slots.  

I would be looking for an escape clause somehwere in that contract with SA. \"Since your racing surface is not laid down today we must declare it unsafe and move elsewhere.\"

I would go to Belmont Park or CD on my knees begging saying stop me before I kill myself with a self inflicted wound.
Title: Re: Proud Spell out of Breeders Cup
Post by: Silver Charm on August 17, 2008, 05:25:52 PM
Maybe even go to  Stronach and say, let us out of the contract because it is in the best interest of the sport.

He is a reasonable man.........
Title: Re: Proud Spell out of Breeders Cup
Post by: Delmar Deb on August 17, 2008, 09:50:00 PM
I doubt that the track surface has anything to do with Mr. Jones decision not to race in California.  Just as I don\'t believe Pure Clan passed the Del Mar Oaks because she was too \"tired\" from her previous race.
Title: Re: Proud Spell out of Breeders Cup
Post by: marcus on August 17, 2008, 10:09:27 PM
that sire profile synth tgi falls off quite a bit and since debuting , she ran her second worst career figure on synth at keeneland .  my bet is they\'ll get squared away with the new racing surface and everyone will be happy - but i want a good price ...
Title: Re: Proud Spell out of Breeders Cup
Post by: richiebee on August 18, 2008, 02:22:15 AM
Whether or not surface considerations were an issue, this is the second
potential Eclipse Award winner who will not be running on the \"Pro Ride\",
joining, apparently, Curlin.

Hate to repeat myself, but Churchill or Belmont should consider running all of
their high purse graded dirt stakes on the last weekend in October.
Maybe \"collaborate\" and present a day of dirt racing which includes dirt racing
from both venues (though \"collaborate\" not a word frequently used by the
management of racing facilities in this country). Maybe run these races on the
Sunday after the BC races, though I know many think that competing with pro
football and baseball\'s World Series is futile.

Some folks out there might jump on me as a synthetic \"hater\", but that is not
the case. I just think that horsemen and horseplayers deserve options. If there
is going to be racing on 3 separate surfaces (Dirt, turf, synthetic) why not
allow for champions to perform on 3 separate surfaces?

Possible Future Scenario: In 2012, there are 2 outstanding older horses. Each
horse has won 3 Grade 1 stakes-- horse \"A\" has won 3 Gr 1s on synthetic, horse
\"B\" has won 3 Gr 1s on dirt. \"A\" and \"B\" have beaten equally respectable fields
and have run times close to the track records in their races. Neither one
of \"A\" or \"B\" races in the BC Classic, which is won by a rank outsider who does
not possess the credentials of either \"A\" or \"B\". Your Eclipse Award winning
Older Horse in this scenario is....? (or will there eventually be Eclipses
awarded for performers on both non-turf surfaces?)

[Of course, the Champion could be determined by who was awarded the lowest TG#
and TGJB could present the award]

If the BC ever returns to natural terra firma, I would have no problem
with a series of high purse graded races being run on a synthetic surface
on the same weekend as the BC dirt races.

Change is good, but so is having a choice. CD, NYRA, get to work on this right
away.
Title: Re: Proud Spell out of Breeders Cup
Post by: mlnolan00 on August 18, 2008, 05:03:11 AM
Churchill can\'t run that last Saturday because those dates have already been given to Keeneland.  Maybe NYRA could run a few BIG turf races on Saturday and then when CD opens on Sunday the remaining DIRT races could be run then.

Also, everyone keeps mentioning the Clark as a potential showdown sport for Curlin & BB, but they keep forgetting that the Clark is a HANDICAP race and I believe Camp Curlin wants to keep running in weight-for-age races.

Hahaha, what\'s gonna happen when Big Brown loses the BC Classic to some donkey like Go Between...What a bunch of idiots at the Breeders Cup.
Title: Re: Proud Spell out of Breeders Cup
Post by: fkach on August 18, 2008, 05:31:48 AM
Richie,

I\'m not sure I like your idea of running dirt races \"against\" the BC. While I would like to see the dirt championships settled on dirt, I think it would be a divisive move that could damage the BC at a time when the industry needs to pull together on issues like drugs etc..

It wasn\'t very difficult to predict that a lot of top dirt horses weren\'t going to go to CA. The \"powers that be\" apparently aren\'t very insightful. However, I suspect they will learn their lesson when a 1/2 dozen or more US dirt stars don\'t show up and the Europeans win a couple of races on \"dirt\" with second tier \"turf\" horses.
Title: Stop This Mess Now
Post by: Silver Charm on August 18, 2008, 06:39:59 AM
When a half a dozen US Dirt Stars do not show up???

Say What!! These are the best horses in their respective divisions if not the world. Their places will taken by wannabes and most of the races will unhandicappable.

I have not missed a BC or even a race for however long it has been around. What is going to occur this year is not the BC. This is the Synthetic World Championship of Racing. Not even the ESPN TV Crew can hype this as the Greatest Racing of All-Time. I will not be putting big money into this mess. Take the rubber band off a week later for the CalCup. Wait a minute the BC will look like the Cal Cup.

Speaking of ESPN when racing was lucky enough to get them signed up do you think ESPN knew what they were getting into.  

Don\'t give me all of the excuses of why this track doesn\'t have these dates or too many obstacles to overcome by switching now. They can get it done.

This mess can be avoided and there are four men who can see that it happens.

Jerry Brown
Len Friedman
Steve Crist
Andy Beyer
Title: Re: Stop This Mess Now
Post by: Silver Charm on August 18, 2008, 06:26:50 PM
Just curious. If the four men mentioned above withheld their handicapping data for the BC Card only..

How big of a dent would there be made in the overall handle for the BC Card?

30% or 50% or even 70%

Might be a bit of a dent in their own pockets but perhaps short lived. They don\'t have to wait a year to make it back.

And besides if they say wagering on something as random as this years BC racing surface will be is not in their customers best interests.

They may actually build more customer loyalty. Something the BC needs to learn a little about..........
Title: Re: Stop This Mess Now
Post by: Delmar Deb on August 18, 2008, 08:58:34 PM
I guess you haven\'t heard...the Cal Cup is October 5th!  And the 6 Grade I races including the Yellow Ribbon are September 27th.
Title: Re: Whine whine and more Whine in Cali...just show me the cheese
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on August 18, 2008, 10:37:17 PM
Ladies and Gents,

There clearly is a bigger picture to all of this. CD is a  Magna partner so they ain\'t getting involved in a hostile take over of the BC and running anything on a all DIRT STAKES DAY. The NTRA folks are mostly from KY, and if you didn\'t read the fine print, KEE and the LEX HARD BOOTS and looking at a redesign to get the BC, perhaps the new PERM home. Stay tuned.

And when the day finally comes and all the whining is done, I am sure most of you folks claiming to be withholding their money will just not be able to resist the temptation to play racing\'s biggest day. even if it\'s just the turf races, but I am sure you\'ll dabble.

Wagering on Syn-th is a different strategy than dirt, but not all that different, and one can adjust to it, with an open mind.

But in the mean time, you all open up a bottle of red or a bottle of white, it  depends upon your appetite.....just don\'t forget the provolone.....

NC Tony
Title: We get your point already
Post by: P-Dub on August 19, 2008, 01:56:53 AM
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I would go to Belmont Park or CD on my knees
> begging saying stop me before I kill myself with a
> self inflicted wound.


Some of us are saying this to you if we have to read yet another rant about the Breeders\' Cup.  You don\'t like synthetic racing, we get it already.  

Do you think it takes us reading 500 posts on the same subject before we get it?? Dude, stop already. Geez.

You are quickly surpassing Chuckles The Clown as far as being both obnoxious and ridiculous. Suggesting Jerry, Len, Beyer, and Crist withold information for the BC hoping that handle declines 50%.  Sure, that will happen. There are many resources for handicapping besides those you mentioned.

I\'m not even going to mention the many other Clown-like posts you\'ve authored.

Do you ever have anything positive to say, or do you spend all friggin day figuring out a new way to bitch about something?? Like I said before, I\'ll be at Santa Anita having a great time. Thank God you won\'t be there.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: Silver Charm on August 19, 2008, 05:05:19 AM
>Suggesting Jerry, Len, Beyer, and Crist withold information for the BC hoping >that handle declines 50%.

I never suggested they would be hoping it declined 50%. I just implied that it might. And if it did then maybe some of these people making these uncustomer friendly decisions might go to them first and say \"what do you and your customers think?\" As in help us because we are clueless decision making idiots and you understand the handicapper and the sport better than we do.

>There are many resources for handicapping besides those you mentioned.

None that are so widely accepted, respected or that consistently work.

I rest my case...........
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: APny on August 19, 2008, 06:18:11 AM
P-dub,

While I can respect you being annoyed by all the negative posts about the Breeders Cup...it\'s people like you that are the problem...people who are just willing to sit back and accept the demise of the sport.  The Breeders cup is one of the very few chances for the best of the best in each division to face off...If nobody is willing to stand up as customers..nothing will ever change...and the sport will continue to be run by suits who don\'t keep the customer in mind when making decisions. You can\'t really argue that this will be a real breeders cup...with so many good horses staying home.  I was laughing last year at Monmouth because Sam Houston put a big ad in the program wanting to be considered to host the event.  I thought it was funny...but now I believe more of the top horses would have shown up there than at Santa Anita this year.  Kind of sad.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: jma11473 on August 19, 2008, 08:12:26 AM
I\'m torn on this, because I do agree that the synthetic Breeders Cup is going to be a mess. However, the DRF and Thoro-Graph witholding their information would only ruin their business, not stop the Breeders Cup from being placed wherever the powers that be want it placed. It\'s not going to ruin the Breeders Cup forever either...so let\'s not go crazy. There are a lot bigger problems in racing than where they hold these races. Jerry, Crist, etc. would be better off putting their efforts into cleaning up the drug problem (or continuing to do so), for example, than holding a Breeders Cup protest.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: Silver Charm on August 19, 2008, 08:26:27 AM
Probably so. But when handicappers have a crappy day wagering big money on unknowns who fields the complaining customer service calls. And that is a kind way of referring to the calls.

Nobody gets more excited than me not just around Breeders Cup time but even leading up to it. And we are now at about that point in time.

A better solution would have been to have stuck with the Traditional Dirt/Turf venue. Then added a couple of New Breeders Cup races at a venue like Keeneland and run on the Synthetic as test program in the morning before the really big show launches. See how the races filed, how the average handle looked, etc. Also would have been a good pilot opportunity for Keeneland to handle a small BC Day and then see about a complete remodeling for the entire day.

But moving the entire platform to a complete unknown. Cmon........
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: HP on August 19, 2008, 08:36:47 AM
It\'s obvious that this is one way that the powers that be in racing have decided to deal with this issue.  Everybody knows the poly hurt Keeneland this past year.  But...they have sunk a ton of money into this and you would imagine that they thought it through.  So what about Breeders Cup?  Are they going to say, \"we are behind this polytrack 100%, except on our most important day of the year?\"  Of course not.  They are running it at Santa Anita, one of the traditional venues, and they will try to get people to accept it.  They made a commitment to this surface and they are going to try to tough it out.  Makes more sense than converting the poly tracks back to dirt before trying to get the public to accept it, or at least see how bad the non-acceptance is...

The permanent venue idea (Churchill only) was floated before the whole poly issue.  I\'d be surprised if they did that.  I believe it\'s even less likely now, because it leaves the poly converts high and dry.

As for Jerry, Rags, and others withholding info or whatever, that\'s not going to have any impact.  Did I mention that they have invested a ton of money in this?  Plus, what happened to freedom of choice?  I personally don\'t love poly, but if there are people who want to play it, why punish them?  

HP
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: RICH on August 19, 2008, 09:32:14 AM
To determine year end honors and championship races on a synthetic track is ridiculous, there is no way in hell that handicappers will throw down the dollars as in years past on that stuff and chaos it produces. Now the turf racing is a different story, that\'s not the problem. I used to love this time of year. Lets not forget, the ladies day on Friday, the splitting up of the tradional BC card and the additional crap races they added on top of the poly issue. A total disgrace and they will pay in the form of a complete drop in handle on the poly races. Yeah, we may play a coupple of small exotics for shits and grins, but would you bet the same big dollars on that as in the past? Just look what mud did to the handle last year, its worse than that.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: sighthound on August 19, 2008, 09:40:04 AM
I guess those of us who have no problem handicapping on the various synthetic surfaces either here or in Europe (after all, we have spent years learning to handicap  on various markedly idiosyncratic turf and dirt tracks, it\'s no big deal to some of us to add another) can jump on all that \"general public\" money, as the \"big handicappers\" won\'t be playing.

Thanks!
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: P-Dub on August 19, 2008, 02:08:29 PM
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >Suggesting Jerry, Len, Beyer, and Crist withold
> information for the BC hoping >that handle
> declines 50%.
>
> I never suggested they would be hoping it declined
> 50%. I just implied that it might. And if it did
> then maybe some of these people making these
> uncustomer friendly decisions might go to them
> first and say \"what do you and your customers
> think?\" As in help us because we are clueless
> decision making idiots and you understand the
> handicapper and the sport better than we do.
>
> >There are many resources for handicapping besides
> those you mentioned.
>
> None that are so widely accepted, respected or
> that consistently work.
>

Silver,
There are many companies that produce PPs.  Trackmaster makes an exceptional PP, with perhaps the best figures of any PP.  Way better than Beyer numbers.  The number of players that use TG or Rags is probably smaller than you think.  


> I rest my case...........

I hope so.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: Ill-bred on August 19, 2008, 02:21:06 PM
We are two months away from the Breeders\' Cup, and the track surface is not complete. It\'s a total unknown.

There is no denying that this presents issues.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: P-Dub on August 19, 2008, 02:23:20 PM
APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-dub,
>
> While I can respect you being annoyed by all the
> negative posts about the Breeders Cup...it\'s
> people like you that are the problem...

People like me. You mean people who actually attend the races?? Who travel to various tracks, wager money,  promote the sport to their friends?? I guess if I hysterically write EVERYDAY how much I hate synthetic surfaces, I\'ll be one of the good guys. Listen up, I prefer dirt surfaces. But if synthetic surfaces are a reality, instead of crying about it ad nauseum I will adjust.

>people who are just willing to sit back and accept the demise
> of the sport.

Wrong. There is a lot more wrong with the sport than the current surface fixation some rant on and on about. If someone can some up with a concrete suggestion fixing these problems, I\'m all for it.  Throwing around multiple rants on a forum site isn\'t one of them.

> The Breeders cup is one of the very
> few chances for the best of the best in each
> division to face off...If nobody is willing to
> stand up as customers..nothing will ever
> change...and the sport will continue to be run by
> suits who don\'t keep the customer in mind when
> making decisions. You can\'t really argue that this
> will be a real breeders cup...with so many good
> horses staying home.


You don\'t know that.  You guys are making assumptions based on guesswork.  Name the horses that are 100% not going to the BC this year.  Its still conjecture at this point.  The headline written by SC states Proud Spell is out of the Breeders\' Cup.  Oh really.  You might want to call up the owner and let him know.  He\'s on record stating that he still might run her in the BC.  Curlin,  while possibly skipping the BC,  hasn\'t made any definitive statements either way. Before hysterically declaring that the sky is falling on this year\'s BC, lets see what the top horses will end up doing.  



> I was laughing last year at
> Monmouth because Sam Houston put a big ad in the
> program wanting to be considered to host the
> event.  I thought it was funny...but now I believe
> more of the top horses would have shown up there
> than at Santa Anita this year.  Kind of sad.

More horses would have shown up at Sam Houston than Santa Anita. Sure. Now more people are laughing.

You guys almost make me want to ask for Chuckles back.

Almost.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: fkach on August 19, 2008, 02:39:09 PM
>Before hysterically declaring that the sky is falling on this year\'s BC, lets see what the top horses will end up doing.<

Off the top of my head.  

Proud Spell, Curlin, and Ginger Punch have already been mentioned.

Zito is pretty much on record as disliking the stuff. That could eliminate Commentator and all his 3YOs (Da Tara, Cool Coal Man, Coal Play, etc...)

Hysterical Lady clearly doesn\'t like it.  

Pyro is suspect.

Harlem Rocker

That\'s already an impressive list before we even begin speculating about 2YOs and others that have never tried it.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: Silver Charm on August 19, 2008, 04:12:50 PM
It is not the number of people who use TG and Rags but how much they bet. Also both should advise their customers to send their horses to SA for the BC.

Treat these races like non-betting Exhibitions just with real big purses.

Read my post on how the BC should have phased the new surface in to their event. It makes so much sense even you can understand it.    

P-Dub there is a good card on dirt Sat at Saratoga on Travers Day and then another on Sunday at Del Mar on Synthetic. Never hurts to have a little mix then the handicapper can pick the spots he wants.

Good Luck
Title: Re: Whine whine and more Whine in Cali...just show me the cheese
Post by: Flighted Iron on August 19, 2008, 09:53:32 PM
for a guy from north cacalacki you sure are in a \"new york state of mind\".
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: Flighted Iron on August 19, 2008, 10:05:30 PM
well written. I 2nd the motion against complacency.

 \"the simple minded and the uninformed can be easily led astray
  those than can not connect the dots hey look the other way\"

                                              Mellencamp
  WE WANT DIRT
   Iron
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: P-Dub on August 20, 2008, 01:40:26 AM
Silver,

Completely agree with you about the surface.  This has been a complete clusterbleep from the start.

My main point is that despite these problems,  I\'m not going to let it ruin my enjoyment of the biggest day in racing. I\'ll just roll with it.

I know you have a lot of passion on this subject, and I know its well meant. But the point has been talked about enough.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: P-Dub on August 20, 2008, 01:44:14 AM
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >Before hysterically declaring that the sky is
> falling on this year\'s BC, lets see what the top
> horses will end up doing.<
>
> Off the top of my head.  
>
> Proud Spell, Curlin, and Ginger Punch have already
> been mentioned.
>
> Zito is pretty much on record as disliking the
> stuff. That could eliminate Commentator and all
> his 3YOs (Da Tara, Cool Coal Man, Coal Play,
> etc...)
>
> Hysterical Lady clearly doesn\'t like it.  
>
> Pyro is suspect.
>
> Harlem Rocker
>
> That\'s already an impressive list before we even
> begin speculating about 2YOs and others that have
> never tried it.


Fkach,

Most , if not all, of the horses you mentioned have not made any definitive plans for the BC. Yes, many have raised concerns.  But until the connections of these horses come and say they definitely won\'t run then you don\'t know.  Its just speculation.
Title: Re: We get your point already
Post by: jbelfior on August 20, 2008, 04:27:23 AM
It\'s understandable for those who make their biggest plays of the year on the BC card.

My suggestion: temper your dirt plays and double up on the turf. Santa Anita has one of the best courses in the country.


Anyway, forget the Breeder\'s Cup; it\'s 2 1/2 months away. We have a terrific race coming up on Saturday.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Travers Day and Pacific Classic Day
Post by: Silver Charm on August 20, 2008, 05:11:19 AM
Agree with both your points.

Best racing weekend of the year coming up. Or at least since Derby/Oaks.

The playoffs to the BC start now until about a week before BC.

These previous win and you are in\'s are meaningless if you are in but out of form.

Form, Freshness and Footing are your keys to making money on BC Day........
Title: Re: Whine whine and more Whine in Cali...just show me the cheese
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on August 21, 2008, 06:13:27 AM
You can move the guy out of NY, but you can\'t move the NY out of the Guy...

NC Tony
Title: Re: Whine whine and more Whine in Cali...just show me the cheese
Post by: Flighted Iron on August 21, 2008, 09:15:24 AM
:)