horse of the day for me in all multi-race wagers will be Rosinka. distance, bit of moisture in field (no way it\'s dry by now), motion shipping, and Precious Kitten has not been in the money if the turf has not been dry.
Skipping the trip this year in spite of the great draw the Cardinal / Cubs...
My pik 3 (races 8-10)
8 2.6.7/2,6,7/all
9 2/all/3,7,8
10 1,3,5,6,7
the pik 3 = $15...good luck everybody...GO CARDS (Cubfan will love that).
Looks like a really good day of racing and the Spa is not bad either if they stay on the grass.
With the PGA golf plus racing Living Room Downs is feeling pretty good now.
What about the Clement mare in Bev D? She wins the close ones.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looks like a really good day of racing and the Spa
> is not bad either if they stay on the grass.
>
> With the PGA golf plus racing Living Room Downs is
> feeling pretty good now.
>
> What about the Clement mare in Bev D? She wins the
> close ones.
Christophe needs some wins!
Shan,
Are these 2 different tickets?? Whats the last bet??
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shan,
>
> Are these 2 different tickets?? Whats the last
> bet??
My pik 3 (races 8-10)
8) 2.6.7/2,6,7/all
9) 2/all/3,7,8
10) 1,3,5,6,7
PDub - these would be the individual races, and the tops being the pik 3 - when I posted there was separation after the race #...hope this clears it up! The pik 3 bet would be 2.6.7/2/1,3,5,6,7
Still learning how to read TG\'s, so take this with a grain of salt:
Rosinka\'s sheet bothers me. She started putting it together halfway through her 4 year old campaign (last year), and then they put her away for 8 months. Usually some sort of injury, or medical \"stop\" for that kind of layoff, right?
When she came back recently, she ran in two turf races at Delaware, hung on in one, and got beat in the other at 1/5...vs. nobody. That\'s a huge negative for me -- she should have smoked that field if she was right.
Thoro-Pattern has Motion at 8% new tops for the pair-off-pair sequence, and 42% to pair. Rosinka\'s top is 3 3/4, which isn\'t fast enough to win this, IMO. Hard for me to like her chances tomorrow.
If you\'re looking for a stray piece for the upset, try Communique: after running in the 7 - 10 range all last year, she showed some improvement earlier this year (5 3/4 in a 12 furlong G3 win at Keeneland), threw in a another 7 at Churchill, then ran a 3 1/4 out of nowhere in her last over the soft turf at Arlington. Another small forward move puts her right in the hunt; if she pairs, she probably won\'t be good enough to win, but she could hit the board at a big price.
I have to have every bit of that 12-1 morning line though, because I\'d have to be compensated for trying to beat Dreaming of Anna, Precious Kitten, and Mauralakana -- all in the same race. Or I\'d have to be nuts. Take your pick.
Rick for a guy who last week said I needed to be put in a straight jacket I will give you the benefit of doubt and go with the former.
Not the latter......
I still like Clement and Kent
Rick - excellent pts as usual. My thinking is based strictly on distance and the turf being a bit soft. Doubt anna can keep her attention going the extra footing & have no doubt that Rosinka will NOT be on the lead. Gotta run...it\'s time to second guess everything I handicapped last night.
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Still learning how to read TG\'s, so take this with
> a grain of salt:
>
> Rosinka\'s sheet bothers me. She started putting it
> together halfway through her 4 year old campaign
> (last year), and then they put her away for 8
> months. Usually some sort of injury, or medical
> \"stop\" for that kind of layoff, right?
>
> When she came back recently, she ran in two turf
> races at Delaware, hung on in one, and got beat in
> the other at 1/5...vs. nobody. That\'s a huge
> negative for me -- she should have smoked that
> field if she was right.
>
> Thoro-Pattern has Motion at 8% new tops for the
> pair-off-pair sequence, and 42% to pair. Rosinka\'s
> top is 3 3/4, which isn\'t fast enough to win this,
> IMO. Hard for me to like her chances tomorrow.
>
> If you\'re looking for a stray piece for the upset,
> try Communique: after running in the 7 - 10 range
> all last year, she showed some improvement earlier
> this year (5 3/4 in a 12 furlong G3 win at
> Keeneland), threw in a another 7 at Churchill,
> then ran a 3 1/4 out of nowhere in her last over
> the soft turf at Arlington. Another small forward
> move puts her right in the hunt; if she pairs, she
> probably won\'t be good enough to win, but she
> could hit the board at a big price.
>
> I have to have every bit of that 12-1 morning line
> though, because I\'d have to be compensated for
> trying to beat Dreaming of Anna, Precious Kitten,
> and Mauralakana -- all in the same race. Or I\'d
> have to be nuts. Take your pick.
I Didn\'t like Precious Kitten at the distance today..I can\'t see anybody beating her though Except Mauralakana who runs numbers close to Precious Kitten and looks like she can run all day. Dreaming of Anna is a throwout for me today due to Weight , probable pace pressure and distance. MAuralakana is the key here but i\'ll still back up my Pick 3\'s with Precious Kitten though.
In the Eighth race I love Secret Getaway who has great numbers and will be staking Tizdejavu around the track today so no loose leads for that one. I think he is the play of the day. Key for me
In the 10th Einstein is the key but 3 others are really close. Cloudy\'s Knight might be able to get to the front with the Sudan scratch and put them to sleep on the front end at 20/1. He has good numbers at this distance to boot. I\'ll use the 1,2,5 and 6. Protect with an all wheel in the pick 3 and key up on Einstein and Cloudy\'s knight at a huge price.
I understand the Logic of throwing Dreaming of Anna out today, however, do not underscore the fact that \"THE CAT MAN (41%)\" has been pointing this runner for this race this year, in front of home crowd and family and friends for owner FCC. He does have GG up today. I know he means business. (Doesn\'t mean a thing once the gates open)
If I can get 9-2 or better I\'m throwing down.
NCT
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I understand the Logic of throwing Dreaming of
> Anna out today, however, do not underscore the
> fact that \"THE CAT MAN (41%)\" has been pointing
> this runner for this race this year, in front of
> home crowd and family and friends for owner FCC.
> He does have GG up today. I know he means
> business. (Doesn\'t mean a thing once the gates
> open)
>
> If I can get 9-2 or better I\'m throwing down.
>
> NCT
9-2 Tony? have to think the odds will be lower.
if PK doesn\'t take to the less than firm going, and Gomez gets his way on the front end, DoA will be tough. she has a few runs in the \'2\' range over the off going, and these Rahy fillies/mares improve a ton from 3 to 5.
let\'s see how the turf looks before making a selection though. PK is the fastest, and will be very tough if the turf is on the firm side of good. if, on the other hand, the turf is good to yielding, I might look at one of the long-shot closers.
no hurry. we have 4 turf races prior to the Bev D to judge the course condition.
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> let\'s see how the turf looks before making a
> selection though.
According to the Arlington Park website as of 10:15 CDT today:
* turf is rated GOOD
* rail will be at Lane 1 (10 feet inside) for races 2,4,6
* rail will be at Lane 5 (0 feet) for the 8,9,10 (the Gr. I\'s) and race 12
Link at:
http://www.arlingtonpark.com/racing/handicapping/track-maintenance
Weather, according to me: it\'s a bit cool for an August day, and overcast. Feels like about 70 degrees. Not supposed to get much warmer, and chance of rain the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
Think we are looking at \"good\" for the stakes, unless it rains. Don\'t think it will firm up much more on us, though, with the lack of sun and warmth.
You\'re a good sport.
I didn\'t realize until much after I made that comment that you were being sarcastic. My bad.
the times had been suggesting the course is 5 to 10 ten lengths slow, before the Pletcher went 1:41 and change with Gomez up. what do we do with Tizdejavu now? I\'m still going to try and beat the favorite, but with less confidence now. Winchester has the \'6\' going 10f in Europe, draws well, gets lasix for the 1st time, and gets 9 lbs from the fave. Plan is getting a lot of hype here. like Win, has a decent Euro-fig, and gets weight from the fave. also use Secret Getaway, who has nice Cad form, and might get a good stalking trip. 2, 3, and 9.
in the Bev D, I\'m with Tony - DoA. daughter of Rahy runs well over turf with some give, and looks nicely spotted by Catalano to run her best.
the Million is impossible.
Nice Call Michael, now if we can get this leg I covered with 2-6 with a smaller play on the 5 in the million P3.
NCT
Not that distance I guess for her.
Nice try though.
NCT
Good ride by Kent here. Looked like Rosinka wanted to get off the rail half way around the turn and Kent would have none of it. Kept his spot and made a similar off the turn sweep as in the Sheepshead Bay Hdcp.
Know this is a redboard boast (not a selection) but guys this one was easy.
yep, she just didn\'t get the final 1/16. she bore out in the Tam race going 9f over the off, which was a warning sign. the winner had the top 2 measured though, and probably could have won going shorter.
the Frenchmen certainly know how to win this race.
Four straight strong numbers. Shipped everywhere. Rested and shortened up for todays stretch out. Weak American competition. Drops six lbs off last.
Not supposed to be this easy is it?
I decided to beat the americans period in the Million. Went with three on top (which is a stretch). lets see.
NCT
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I decided to beat the americans period in the
> Million. Went with three on top (which is a
> stretch). lets see.
>
> NCT
a stretch yes. this is going to stretch your wallet.
great hit at 13-1.
Nice one.
No excuses on the one. He had a mile and quarter to get out and never did.
Nice way to spend $100 bucks....I still don\'t know whose 4th...i could have the super....NCT
Nope didn\'t include the Old gray, but I can\'t complain with that last minute decision. Spirit one ran against some of Euro\'s best decided it for me. Al ittle improvement off his last puts him in the race. Why not stab at the value.
NCT
Yes Chuckles the Clown impersonator,
It was easy, after the race.
Before the race, you had to accept 2-1 on the 3rd fastest horse, who figured to lost ground on both turns, whereas both the faster horses had enough tactical speed to not lose ground.
Taking 2-1 in those situations is an \"easy\" way to be in the poor house, over the long run.
But it worked today, so congrats.
Jimbo I put it up last night.
The mare has an explosive kick at a mile and quarter. The quote \"two fastest\" had never won at the distance.
Bet the horse with the lowest number every time and you will be busted quicker than anybody
Silver Charm,
Sorry, missed that post last night.
I thought 2-1 was \"light\" for the mare, but obviously I was wrong. I thought Precious Kitten would be closer to even money and Mauralakana closer to 3-1.
Kent gave the mare a good ride, as she figured to be further back.
Who would have thought that the PGA would have more weather problems than the
SPA?
Actually was a good day of racing in Living Room Downs between the Arlington
action and a surprisingly bettable and foul weather free Saratoga card. One of
the ESPN commentators hit the nail on the head with regards to European v.
American turf racing: \"Their bench is better than our starters\".
I hope the Breeders Cup/Santa Anita people try to aggressively recruit and
accommodate the Euros for this year\'s (and next year\'s) BC turf races at Santa
Anita. I remember reading an article by DRF\'s Alan Shuback written after it was
announced that SA would be the site of the BC for 08/09; Shuback seemed to
think that the European stables would not be seen in full force at the SoCal
venue. (Longer ship? Climate?). I hope Shuback is wrong.
At this point I will make my periodic comment that BC should look into running
an entire BC card (or maybe just the BC turf races)in Europe. I know there are
logistical problems (time difference, etc) but how can a series of races be
called \"World Championships\" when they have never been run outside of North
America?
As to Saratoga today, no Graded Stake, BUT only 2/11 races carded for NYBs and
NO turf sprints. And not coincidentally, today you had a day of NY racing which
reminded me in the slightest way of NY racing of olden times-- a day where one
could see some runners who might have a future impact locally or nationally:
ETERNAL STAR (Trombetta) and BOLD START (McPeek)(4th race) looked good prepping
for the Forego (maybe a moot point if Midnight Lute ships in).
ARIEGE (Frankel)(7th race) now a stakes winner on synthetic and turf. From the
same race, SEA CHANTER (Pletcher), who won 2 stakes on turf as a 2YO, was very
rank under Dominguez in her first start since November; the rider made
absolutely no effort to take a hold of her. I will look for her next start,
presumably under Johnny V.
NAUTICAL STORM(8th race)(DW Lukas/Overbrook) impressive breaking his maiden in
a race where Frank Lyons on TVG pointed out that the first, second and fourth
place finishers were all sired by Storm Cat. Nautical Storm comes out of the
Joppa Flats maiden race from the first Saturday of the meet, which The Guru
Jerry Brown identified pre race as a very strong maiden race; it may pay to
watch for others coming out of this 14 runner maiden dash (race 6, 7/26/08).
Also out of yesterday\'s 8th, fourth place finisher BET THE LIMIT, from
Shug/Phipps and out of Educated Risk. BTL ran the prototypical slow early/fast
late Shug first time out race. (Someone on one of the message boards made the
comment that it is almost as if Shug instructs riders on first timers to take a
hold of them immediately at the start).
Knowing Lukas, NAUTICAL STORM could be headed for the Kings Bishop, where he
might encounter....
...FOREST COMMAND (9th race) (Ward/Oxley) an effortless 7 furlongs in 1:21.89.
Do not know how many of the above mentioned have subsequently been purchased by
the Maktoums.
A runner which I did not mention which really reminded me of old school
Saratoga racing raced in the NYB maiden turf race. This would be SEEKING NO
MORE,a Dynaformer gelding out of Barry Schwartz\'s good mare Seeking Regina.
SNM raced over the jumps at Colonial on April 12th, 12 days later on the flat at
Pimlico; back over the jumps on May 17th; on the flat at Belmont on June 7th;
and then over jumps on July 6th (Pha) and July 20 (Saratoga). SNM was a well
beaten 7th on Saturday, but seeing his PPs reminded me of the olden days at
Saratoga, when there were more jump races being run and more marathon turf
races being carded. At least once per meet it seemed like Sheppard or Voss or
Paul Fout or Janet Eliot would put one over at a price going from flat to jumps
or vice versa.
Political Note-- I am not disappointed any more when politicians cheat on their
spouses; I am very disappointed with the quality of person that they choose to
cheat with. (It seems like the wicked Marylou Whitney has cornered the market
on Spitzer themed racehorse names).
As Samuel Clemens said (paraphrasing): I didn\'t have time to write a short
post, so I wrote a long one instead.
Richie,
see attached article. It\'s one you should have and could have written a few weeks back when I saw you at the spa.
Steeling from Jeff Foxworthy...it Might be aqueduct (at the spa if)
http://www.troyrecord.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=19899919&BRD=1170&PAG=461&dept_id=31001&rfi=6
NC Tony
Don Antonio:
Good article. You do not need the Hubble Telescope to see that the quality of
Racing is in the toilet.
We the (wagering) people are really the only ones who have the power to change
these trends, by changing our wagering habits, through \"boycotts\" or \"buycotts\"
or whatever, but we probably will not.
It is the dichotomy I have discussed here and elsewhere, and pretty extensively.
While the quality of Racing has sunk to new lows, the opportunities to wager
have expanded--intertrack wagering and internet wagering, etc. Wagering
basically available 24 hours per day, seven days per week, 365 days per year.
Wagering menus have expanded--pick 3, pick 4, pick 6, dollar wagers, ten cent
wagers, etc. As bettors we are pacified, so to speak,by all the options we have
available to us.
While the quality of Racing is nowhere near what it was even 10 years ago, it
is much easier to make a buck playing the races now than then due to expanded
wagering menus.
Add to this the amount of handicapping information available to us now as
opposed to then, the existence of lines of communication provided by message
boards such as this one. A lot of what was once \"inside information\" has
been \"outed.\"
Most racetracks and off track wagering sites are much more user friendly than
they used to be, including Saratoga, though most of them have a long way to go
in terms of customer service.
So as a horseplayer, I am content. As a racing fan, I am disgusted. The
important question is how long Racing can exist without further improvement of
the breed, without the cultivation of a new generation of fans.
A lot of the folks who are in a position to implement change can not do so
without damaging themselves commercially. The two Steves -- Crist and Byk-- for
example-- can not say what they really feel about the quality of Racing due to
the fact that they need to appease their sponsors.
What would it do for sales of DRF, TGs or the Rags if Crist, Brown or Friedman
advocated horseplayers wagering less until the Racing powers that be were more
responsive to us?
The bottom line as always--- the lack of centralized leadership.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Don Antonio:
>
> Good article. You do not need the Hubble Telescope
> to see that the quality of
> Racing is in the toilet.
>
> We the (wagering) people are really the only ones
> who have the power to change
> these trends, by changing our wagering habits,
> through \"boycotts\" or \"buycotts\"
> or whatever, but we probably will not.
>
> It is the dichotomy I have discussed here and
> elsewhere, and pretty extensively.
> While the quality of Racing has sunk to new lows,
> the opportunities to wager
> have expanded--intertrack wagering and internet
> wagering, etc. Wagering
> basically available 24 hours per day, seven days
> per week, 365 days per year.
> Wagering menus have expanded--pick 3, pick 4, pick
> 6, dollar wagers, ten cent
> wagers, etc. As bettors we are pacified, so to
> speak,by all the options we have
> available to us.
>
> While the quality of Racing is nowhere near what
> it was even 10 years ago, it
> is much easier to make a buck playing the races
> now than then due to expanded
> wagering menus.
>
> Add to this the amount of handicapping information
> available to us now as
> opposed to then, the existence of lines of
> communication provided by message
> boards such as this one. A lot of what was once
> \"inside information\" has
> been \"outed.\"
>
> Most racetracks and off track wagering sites are
> much more user friendly than
> they used to be, including Saratoga, though most
> of them have a long way to go
> in terms of customer service.
>
> So as a horseplayer, I am content. As a racing
> fan, I am disgusted. The
> important question is how long Racing can exist
> without further improvement of
> the breed, without the cultivation of a new
> generation of fans.
>
> A lot of the folks who are in a position to
> implement change can not do so
> without damaging themselves commercially. The two
> Steves -- Crist and Byk-- for
> example-- can not say what they really feel about
> the quality of Racing due to
> the fact that they need to appease their
> sponsors.
>
> What would it do for sales of DRF, TGs or the Rags
> if Crist, Brown or Friedman
> advocated horseplayers wagering less until the
> Racing powers that be were more
> responsive to us?
>
> The bottom line as always--- the lack of
> centralized leadership.
Suggest you check this site out.....a fledgling organization of horseplayers. New members welcomed:
Horseplayers Association of North America
http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/
Richie-- I\'m keeping my powder dry for the drug issue. The latest is that the Jockey Club announcement will be coming on 8/17.
I\'m going to withhold comment on the TOBA announcement until I understand it fully.
Much more to follow over the next month or so.