He was 5-1 on ML (I am sure if there are scratches he will be lower) and he loved the slop at the Big A in the Gotham. It was an absolute mess there that day and he made a huge closing move when most of the other winners that day were on the pace.
He\'s cutting back to a distance that should suit him better (I never bought him as a classic distance horse) and I think he should have a good chance to pair his 1 which would put him right there.
Barry was on the tube this morning talking about Vis. they are looking for a decent late close as a prep for the King\'s Bishop. also said the colt bled last.
did you get the impression that he wasn\'t fully cranked for this one?
thanks
covelj70 Wrote:
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> did you get the impression that he wasn\'t fully
> cranked for this one?
>
> thanks
not really. he\'s been running regularly since Nov, so I would imagine the colt is in good shape. it was clear that the King\'s Bishop is the goal however.
really appreciate it, thanks so much
This is actually the type of horse I was talking about a few weeks ago when I said there would be opportunities to play against these 3YOs when they face older horses given that most people think the spring 3YOs were kind of weak. They have all these high caliber races in their PPs which attracts public money, but those races were not particularly strong relative to the class designation.
This horse is 6/5 right now. I don\'t see him as a standout and even think 6 1/2 furlongs could be an issue given that he\'s a closer in slow paced routes. This is also a prep. Maybe this field is just so darn bad he can win anyway, but I don\'t think this is the worst horse in the world to take a stand against at a short price even on a track that is allowing some closers to get up late.
I can\'t recall the other 3YO I saw that tried older horses at short odds already and failed, but at least one did.
totally agree at 6/5. He was 5/1 on ML so I thought I would get some value but didn\'t play him given current odds.
I did use him in the pick 6 along with the 1 and the 2 so given the current odds, I am looking for the 2 to get home here.
Hard to figure a 21.3 44.3 setup in that field combined with a ground saving trip for Visionaire, but I\'ll take my lumps against horses like that.
good call. in the end, $6.90 wasn\'t a bad price.
got the dream set up, but a fine performance imo. looks like a serious contender in the KB.
Thanks.
Not going to make me rich but I did hit the pick 6 which, with a bunch of consos, gave me about $5,900 so it\'s a good start to the meet.
I didn\'t bet Visionaire to win but I did single him on one of my backup pick 6 tickets which wound up hitting.
Michael,
I agree with you, 2-1 was a gift. However, this race fell right in Visionaire\'s lap and if he\'s bet in the King\'s Bishop he\'s a bet against.
Halo Fire Wrote:
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> Michael,
>
> I agree with you, 2-1 was a gift. However, this
> race fell right in Visionaire\'s lap and if he\'s
> bet in the King\'s Bishop he\'s a bet against.
I totally agree. In fact, I am going to geld this prick and drop him in for $12,500 the first chance I get. I hate these damn horses that need everything to fall in place for them to win.
Mr Irwin, sir:
I was surprised not to see a similar rumination in the responses to Steve
Crist\'s DRF blog, where Mr Crist said \"Desert Party and Visionaire recorded
visually impressive victories, but I\'ll probably be playing against them both
in their upcoming Grade I engagements...\"
Kind sir please realize that many of us work very hard, yet not all of us can
afford to own a thoroughbred, even with the advent of fractional ownership. So
dont begrudge us our petty wagering schemes where we try ever so hard (and
without malice) to advance our bankrolls.
I do not know about the wisdom of your proposed \"chop and drop\", but keeping
this son of Grand Slam at the shorter distances would probably be prudent.
Speaking of distances on a completely different track, once Tyson Gay
established himself as arguably the world\'s fastest human, should he not have
restricted his efforts to the 100 meter heats?
I suppose gelding would be a bit much, Barry.
When Barry\'s temper flares like this perhaps we need to geld him. (smiley)
Barry, he ran good yesterday (and in his race prior) and will possibly run better in the King Bishop after getting the turnback prep in him. However why was he a little fractious in the gate before the race?
\"I totally agree. In fact, I am going to geld this prick and drop him in for $12,500 the first chance I get. I hate these damn horses that need everything to fall in place for them to win.\"
Barry,
That was pretty funny.
However, you can\'t deny that your horse was very fortunate to win yesterday. It looked like there was some speed in there, but not the type of speed that seemed likely to give him a 21.2 44.3 pace to close off in a race that ended in 117 (6 4/5 last 1/16th). It also didn\'t hurt that even though he\'s a deep closer, he was able to save a lot of ground without being directly on the rail (in the event the track was deeper in there). Finally, IMO two of his major competitors didn\'t run 100%. Street Magician was a probably a tad short off the long layoff despite running well against that pace (understandable but not certain), and Temecula Creek didn\'t do much serious running at all.
I\'m not knocking him, but the stars certainly lined up perfectly or IMO he would have run a solid closing 2nd/3rd/4th instead of winning.
All that said, he\'ll get an extra 1/2 furlong in the Kings Bishop and that race is often a lot like the Test in that it draws a lot of very fast 6F horses trying to stretch out. So you may get another good pace next time.
On a wet track, with a good set up he\'ll have a punchers chance.He will go in as one of the slowest if the usual types show up in the KB.
Mike
Yes, I know he is nothing but a bum that got lucky. I just can\'t fool you guys because are just too darn savvy for me.
What in the hell was I thinking dropping him from a bunch of 2-turn races down to one corner anyway? I didn\'t deserve to win.
Of course, if we really do run him in the King\'s Bishop, he will embarrass us, because even though he ran a big number when bleeding profusely in the Northern Dancer and figures to improve significantly in the King\'s Bishop, it will not be enough for him to dent the board.
I am probably just doing it to make my investors feel like they have a chance, when us professionals know all too well the colt is strictly AB (a bum).
God, how in the hell can I look at myself in the morning when I shave? That\'s probably why I go a long time between shaves!
I expected more from you, Barry.
Halo Fire Wrote:
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> I expected more from you, Barry.
I am very sorry to have disappointed you.
Are you related to my parents? They were disappointed in me too, because I went into racing. Can you blame them?
Barry,
I am your Father.
Are they also disappointed in you acting like a winy little jerk?
The guys here are looking at this from a betting standpoint, you are not. I would think you understand the difference.
Ahhh.....the Sins of the Son. Sounds like a good book.
NC Tony
>>This is actually the type of horse I was talking about a few weeks ago when I said there would be opportunities to play against these 3YOs when they face older horses given that most people think the spring 3YOs were kind of weak. They have all these high caliber races in their PPs which attracts public money, but those races were not particularly strong relative to the class designation.<<
Anyone notice that Stevil didn\'t do much running at 3.65-1 in an Alw Race?
I did notice that and thought about your comments.
If I am not mistaken, that was the race won by Acai, an improving sort old who didn\'t make the Derby trail, the kind you suggested in your original post is playable at long odds (I think Acai went off at 10-1).
I think the same might be true for the Travers. If Brownie doesn\'t make it, the horses coming back from the Jim Dandy will get all of the attention (especially Macho and TOE who Barclay said was a work short from the Jim Dandy but that it would set him up well for the Travers). But, both Mambo in Seattle and the runner up in that race earned faster times (and I assume will earn faster figs given the weight assignments) than Macho did in the Jim Dandy.
I caught that exacta. I didn\'t crush it, but I had it equal weight with the second place finisher on top and a couple of other combinations. That was the best ticket for me though. ;-)
I hit that e as well.
Acai had been breezing in company with a horse that I own and (of course) the reports were alot more bullish on Acai than on mine so I went with it.
At least I can profit from my horse ownership misery in some ways.....lol
fkach Wrote:
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> \"I totally agree. In fact, I am going to geld this
> prick and drop him in for $12,500 the first chance
> I get. I hate these damn horses that need
> everything to fall in place for them to win.\"
>
> Barry,
>
> That was pretty funny.
>
> However, you can\'t deny that your horse was very
> fortunate to win yesterday. It looked like there
> was some speed in there, but not the type of speed
> that seemed likely to give him a 21.2 44.3 pace to
> close off in a race that ended in 117 (6 4/5 last
> 1/16th). It also didn\'t hurt that even though
> he\'s a deep closer, he was able to save a lot of
> ground without being directly on the rail (in the
> event the track was deeper in there). Finally, IMO
> two of his major competitors didn\'t run 100%.
> Street Magician was a probably a tad short off the
> long layoff despite running well against that pace
> (understandable but not certain), and Temecula
> Creek didn\'t do much serious running at all.
>
> I\'m not knocking him, but the stars certainly
> lined up perfectly or IMO he would have run a
> solid closing 2nd/3rd/4th instead of winning.
>
> All that said, he\'ll get an extra 1/2 furlong in
> the Kings Bishop and that race is often a lot like
> the Test in that it draws a lot of very fast 6F
> horses trying to stretch out. So you may get
> another good pace next time.
Barry,
It looks like Visionaire will get the speed up front that I predicted (in addition to the extra furlong). But based on the pace figures I used to evaluate his last race, I think he\'s going to need quite a sizzling setup to weaken the better horses he faces this time enough to get up again. The 7F should help.
\"It looks like Visionaire will get the speed up front that I predicted (in addition to the extra furlong). But based on the pace figures I used to evaluate his last race, I think he\'s going to need quite a sizzling setup to weaken the better horses he faces this time enough to get up again. The 7F should help.\"
Congratulations Barry,
Your horse got the pace he needed, but he also ran a very good race. He seems to be improving rapidly. For a minute there I thought I was watching a replay of Birdonthewire winning the Vosburgh. Either that or I was thinking ahead. ;-)
Gulch won the Breeders Cup Sprint and Eclipse Award for Sprint Champion with the same kind of \"set up\".
I know my horse didn\'t deserve to win and I know we got lucky and I know my horse is no good, but please explain to me how this race was a set up, in that the first quarter was just in about :22 2/5 seconds and, although there were several horses in a line, all of the riders had their mounts\' manes in theirlaps?
Horses that win seem to be knocked often on this board. A few weeks ago
it was the Whitney winner.
Barry,
I haven\'t analyzed the fractions relative to the rest of the day carefully yet. At first glance they don\'t seem too quick (nor does the final time), but sometimes it\'s about more than just fractions. It\'s about the competitiveness of the pace and race and the track that day.
Gentleman James, Golden Spikes, and J Be K were the main pacesetters. The former two aren\'t exactly world beaters, but they are pretty darn good horses. They finished last and next to last. J Be K was the favorite and looked like a super fast and potential top level sprinter. He stopped pretty badly for him. That\'s probably telling us something about the impact of that pace.
There were other horses in the mix at various times also. I think it was mostly the middle part of the race that was hot. You can see jockeys urging (probably a bit prematurely). That\'s when John Velasquez backed out of it a little with Desert Key (another very fast horse). He hung around better than the others, but also weakned a little late. There was also some bumping among the closers in upper stretch.
I thought this was a very high quality, deep, and competitive sprint for 3YOs. No matter how you slice it, your horse ran very well to win. That was some wide sweep and finish. I just think that with his style he\'s going to need set ups like these to run down other high quality sprinters. That\'s not an insult to him. It\'s a comment on his running style. He\'s terrific.
I wasn\'t knocking him, although Barry took it that way. It\'s just a fact of life that deep closers often make big runs without getting up unless the quality speed horses are weakened by their efforts.
Barry,
A VERY nice win, congrats! but they did \"war\" in 44.3 in front of you. Won\'t be able to say he\'s too slow anymore because he ran the fastest race of his career yesterday, a negative TG fig and a triple digit Beyer.
Mike
Miff,
I think the pace was \"par\" for King\'s Bishop. I wouldn\'t say that Visionaire got a great setup. Three across for the lead, when two of them are slow rats, through a 22.2 1st quarter is not very fast. This race has had sub 22 1st quarters.
The problem, from a betting perspective, was that it was very very tough to take 6-1 on Visionaire, using TG figs. He was 6 points slower than the fastest horse, 3-4 points slower than two other contenders, at least one of which figured to run. The 10 was also 2 points faster and figured to run. I think Silver Charm had it right, before the race, when he said 10-1 or better is the right price, because of the depth of the field. Congrats to Barry and also to those who took the 6-1, because they cashed, but it looked pretty light to me, from a betting standpoint, based on the numbers.
Although, I did get a look at his sheet on the \'other guys\' numbers (after the race) and he looked better there, which may explain his lower odds (as did Colonel John for that matter.) Oh well, some days are better than others.
Jim,
Agree not brutally fast but when several are vying, the impact seems greater than the actual splits.I think the winner got a nice set up and outran his usual by quite a bit.Honestly not a \"price\" guy, if I don\'t like a horse,I don\'t like him at any price.
Regards,
Mike
MIFF,
Have you seen any figures for the King\'s Bishop yet?
The horses that really stood out for me yesterday was Storm Play. James Jerkens doesn\'t usually have them totally wound up as first time starters. That was a pretty quick race for a horse that may not have been 100%. He\'s got a lot to prove, but I suspect the best is ahead.
Fkach,
They are not officially released and still being tweaked.The problem in the sprints is that the dirt maiden Storm Play ran almost as fast as the KB raw. They will probably conclude the track slowed later in the card esp after that painfully slow Travers.
My guess, the Kings Bishop in the Beyer 107-110 range, TG a neg 2-ish.The Travers fig should be a joke but fig makers wouldn\'t DARE let those slugs run a slow fig, even though they did.
Mike
Visionaire 103
Shakis 103
Porte Bonheur 100
Colonel John/Mambo in Seattle 106...seems generous.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fkach,
>
> They are not officially released and still being
> tweaked.The problem in the sprints is that the
> dirt maiden Storm Play ran almost as fast as the
> KB raw. They will probably conclude the track
> slowed later in the card esp after that painfully
> slow Travers.
>
> My guess, the Kings Bishop in the Beyer 107-110
> range, TG a neg 2-ish.The Travers fig should be a
> joke but fig makers wouldn\'t DARE let those slugs
> run a slow fig, even though they did.
>
>
> Mike
Thanks.
If the Travers figure doesn\'t fit with the rest of the day, most figure makers are probably going to break it out because it was the only two turn dirt race. Personally, I thought the top two ran well.
I had given some thought to the possibility of the track slowing down, but even if it did the Jerken horse still ran well relative to the first race. The 8th also looked pretty quick. Personally, I think they are likely to overrate the Kings Bishop by building the impact of pace into the track variant and assuming it was a change in track speed. But that\'s another debate I\'ve already had with Beyer that he is well aware of privately. First let\'s see what they assign it. Then we can figure out if there\'s a way to exploit it. ;-)