David--
Since you are about to do your long awaited study, can you tell me again exactly what it is you intend to measure, how you intend to measure it, and what the various possible results will indicate?
Jerry,
As surely as you will send Alydar the \'uncut\' scene from Monster\'s Ball, I will complete the study.
I am going to measure how moisture evaporation changes the speed of a race track in two directions, all within a 10 minute period.
Oh, wait, wrong study. I am going to take a look at two things: average figure and standard deviation using a horse-by-horse comparison for the horses that ran on Preakness day -- about 100 horses and over 1,500 data points.
The end product will be average numbers for each race and in sum broken down by route, sprint, and turf (sorry, but I can\'t also break it down by circuit unless you want to pay me), as well as the standard deviation. The goal is mainly to see how much \'smoother\' your lines are than Ragozin\'s.
This study is not intended to make any political points or to try to answer questions about who is right. It\'s just to get a fact base to the numerous statements we see on the boards about how much faster TG numbers are and how much smoother are the patterns.
Look for results by the end of the year. I\'m still up to my eyeballs in work.
I don\'t have the scene (someone I know does), I\'ve never seen it. I\'ll ignore your wisecrack, which is really nice of me. I\'ve also been nice enough not to ask you what you think about the BC ground stuff-- count your blessings.
Explain to me exactly how you are going to go about your study, not what it is you are going to study.
Jerry,
I\'ll give you the same courtesy that you extended me in your last email.
Methodology: I set up an Excel spreadsheet and input the names of each horse in two separate columns -- 1 for Rag. 1 for TG. I will then subdivide each column into \'sprint\' \'route\' and \'turf\'. I will then input the numbers from the respective brand of sheets into each spreadsheet until all numbers are entered and properly segmented.
Then, for each horse and each type of race, add the numbers and divide the total by the number of races, thus generating 1-3 data points for each horse (sprint, route, turf).
Next, I will take the average for sprint, route, and turft and subtract each number in the respective categories from the average, creating a \'deviation\' in the adjacent column. Add the total, divide by number of races, and voila, another 1-3 data points for each horse.
Next, take all of the data points for sprint, route, and turf for both Rag. and TG, add them, divide by the number of horses in each sample size and I will have the average numbers for sprints, routes, and turf for each product as well as the standard deviation. Then, compare TG to Rag. The consensus is that TG numbers will be several points faster and that the standard deviation will be smaller. Just how much is what I would like to know.
Anything else?