If possible..
This is shaping up to be one heck of a race..
Curlin\'s gonna gallop at 3-5. What\'s the point?
.
Even though imo he seemed to handle all the big numbers , they also stopped going forward and possibly may have taken a toll . Maybe Curlin will be able to hit another level on turf ...
Agreed. Good luck trying to beat Curlin with 116 lbs. on a rock hard Belmont turf course.
ROTW.....Arlington Handicap where Cosmonaut will be, IMO, a bad favorite.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Agreed. Good luck trying to beat Curlin with 116
> lbs. on a rock hard Belmont turf course.
>
> ROTW.....Arlington Handicap where Cosmonaut will
> be, IMO, a bad favorite.
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
I think I have the mindset of not playing a horse to do something for the first time at 3/5....Especially against other stakes horses...It doesn\'t matter who he is..
Agree with you on Cosmonaut...at that distance he becomes really vulnerable...
I agree, countless high stakes caliber horses have tried the turf 1st time at odds on with no luck, this is no ordinary field.
I surely won\'t be betting Curlin at 3-5 but when you say it\'s no ordinary field, he\'s no ordinary horse and 1) he\'s bred to handle the turf, and 2) he\'s the fastest horse coming in. I also think we have positive trainer intent as I don\'t think Asmussen would be putting him in this spot if he didn\'t think Curlin could handle it.
Again, I don\'t bet 3-5 shots so it\'s nothing I am going to be playing but I don\'t think it\'s as much of a green light opporunity as many on the board seem to think....lord knows I have been wrong before so we shall see.
Once again a sick group of how can I make a buck or beat a bad favorite pollutes this Board.
I will not be betting on Curlin or against him but hope he wins by a mile. Racing needs a hero. A good story that can attract the average fan.
A game effort in defeat in Arc would still be an incredible story an would bring history of other greats who tried it before. The history of the Arc would be told and great dirt/turf horses like Secretariat would be discussed again.
About 25 years ago I bet the Arc with my bookie and won on a horse named Sagace who was an entry mate of All Along who I was betting all along. I never got paid because the results came back in French currency but it was fun and I learned. Most important of all I became a more serious fan.
And that is what the game needs now more than a beaten bad favorite, \"I told ya so story\"..........
\"Once again a sick group of how can I make a buck or beat a bad favorite pollutes this Board\".
What the hell are you talking about? No one said they are betting for or against, a couple of opinions, and you chime in with these words of wisdom. Get a grip, re-read the posts, just talk my friend, no need to throw down the gauntlet.
Charm,
Being a purist is great, absolutely nothing wrong with it. I am a baseball purist and I love going to baseball games even if I have no vested interest in the teams playing.
However, you do realize that this is a board mostly comprised of people who bet on horses so criticizing people for highlighting bad favorites on this board may be a bit misplaced, no?
The ROTW is something TG generously does which consistently highlights bad favorites so I think it\'s safe to say that highlighting bad favorites is one of the express intents of the board.
Cove, are you saying the best horse in the world is a bad favorite? Curlin crushed Einstein? Although it was on the dirt, he beat him by 4 1/2 carrying more weight. Not sure if he will take to the grass, but if he does, it will be freaky!
This is One Bad Favorite we should all be rooting for.
TGJB no need to un-ban Chuckles the Clown to post he hopes Curlin breaks his leg.
There are plenty of gamblers here on board here who are doing it for him.....
I will be betting against, and therefore rooting against Curlin tomorrow.
I hope he doesn\'t take to the turf and connections decide to skip the Arc for the BCC, where, on synthetic, he could be a very vulnerable odds on favorite again.
I can watch Seabiscuit again on DVD if I need a feel good story. It has the benefit of not featuring the fen-phen felons and Steve Ass-musen in supporting roles.
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=3482329
No, I actually wrote that I think people are too anxious to try to beat him. I posted a seperate thread that I think Benny the Bull is a better bet against than Curlin tomorrow.
My response to Charm was just saying that talking about beating favs is an ok thing to do on this board.
Hey Baseball purist.
Did you see the most Unbreakable Records show last night? Cal Ripken consecutive games at number #1?
Ricky Henderson 1,400 Total Stolen Bases and 130 in one years doesn\'t make the Final Top Five?
You think the Votes were base on who was nice guy and who was not?
>This is One Bad Favorite we should all be rooting for.<
Are we sure he\'s a bad favorite?
Don\'t we need to see the price first. ;-)
If this was a dirt race, IMO he\'d be a legitimate 1-5 shot. Almost the entire risk comes from the fact that he\'s making his first start on turf. We aren\'t the only ones that know that. Everyone knows it. The odds will reflect it to at least some degree. The key is evaluting what the risk is so we know if the public is underrating it.
Personal experience suggests to me that most \"first time turf\" horses that WIN tend to accomplish that at the lower levels of racing (maiden races, limited ALW races etc...). The public does seem to overbet the stakes quality dirt horses that try. However, I think it\'s pretty rare for a stakes caliber dirt horse to come into a race looking this superior, having a pedigree that suggests he\'ll like it, and also having a work over the surface that looked like he handled it just fine.
I don\'t know what the fair price is any more than anyone else, but I suspect it\'s only a few ticks above that 1-5.
If I were tempted to play against him, I would be more inclined to leave him out totally because he\'s probably more of an \"all or nothing\" horse than the typical favorite.
In the mean time, I\'ll be rooting for him too. He\'s a great horse and I\'d like to see him enhance that greatness.
Curlin gets stamina from the outstanding turf router TV Lark, and there\'s nothing wrong with Smart Strike on top. firm turf might make the surface switch less of an issue. only knock is the low odds trying something for the 1st time.
I\'m going to have Grand Couturier as the key here at the ml of 10-1. willing to forgive the \'7\' last in the slow paced prep. don\'t expect a return to the \'0.5\' lvl, but with a 1w/1w trip (Calvin\'s up), GC might only need to improve a few lengths on the run in this race last year, which was compromised a bit by the pace.
there are many woman who think cal is a nice guy.
at least at first ask kelly gear
Wouldn\'t the argument there be that the style of baseball has changed, so the chances of someone being asked to steal that many bases in a season is slim? I mean, obviously there are still guys athletic enough to steal 100 bases in a year, but with so many home runs being hit now (though the totals are down this year) the wait-for-the-home-run strategy means the attempts won\'t be made. Still, it\'s humanly possible for someone to steal a lot of bases. Most guys have no interest in trying to play every game the way Ripken did, plus are likely not physically capable of it, so there\'s zero chance in that record being broken.
Oh, and it\'s okay to root against Curlin if someone wants to, but it would be a better story for racing if he won.
If this were a beauty contest, at least from the looks of the post parade, Curlin looks like one of the all time greats.
Now they need to run the race.
I often wonder if Robby Albarado thinks the rail will jump out and bite him if he gets near it?
Yeah, what\'s the point, indeed. Curlin did in fact gallop, in fact gallop is mostly what he did.
Stick to the dirt guys...he ain\'t no Secretariat.
The better horse on this day won. This was no disgrace for Curlin.
Frankels horse did not get beat by much despite having run through some wicked fractions.
Good for these guys to try it. What they do now is another story. Certainly with the BC being on Synthetic.
Curlin may get the best fig but his lack of \"quick\" cost him as it did in the Belmont.Very ordinary performance off of a perfect pace set up in front of him. How good was Sudan?
Curlin will get embarrassed if he trys the \"froggies\" in the Arc, doubt he goes.Interesting that this may be some indication of how he will perform on synth if he goes to the BC.
Mike
Agreed. This is very selfish as I have hotel and plane reservations but I am hoping Curlin supplements to the Arlington Million to try the Euro invaders there.
According to the owner he might still keep going on Turf.
Dirt is a \"nothing left to prove\" proposition.
I salute the guy if Curlin can improve next time out he would be recognized for what is.
A special horse
>Curlin may get the best fig but his lack of \"quick\" cost him as it did in the Belmont<
That does seem to be his one slight flaw. He doesn\'t seem to have that top notch acceleration that some of the best horses have. That ability is often an asset on turf where the best horses often finish really fast.
I thought it was a good effort though.
He got out of the gate poorly. Even though the very early part of the race was fast, it slowed a bit afterwards and they still came home well. Red Rocks had a good jump on him while getting a perfect trip. Given that the BC is on synth, I don\'t see any reason they can\'t give him one more shot to win a Grade 1 on turf if that would enhance his value in some way.
Fkach,
Only the truly fastest possess that freak like acceleration with staying power. Curlin has never had it and at this point probably never will. He\'s a very serious horse with lofty figs, he\'s just not really race track fast like the great ones.
Mike
miff Wrote:
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> Curlin may get the best fig but his lack of
> \"quick\" cost him as it did in the Belmont.Very
> ordinary performance off of a perfect pace set up
> in front of him. How good was Sudan?
>
> Curlin will get embarrassed if he trys the
> \"froggies\" in the Arc, doubt he goes.Interesting
> that this may be some indication of how he will
> perform on synth if he goes to the BC.
>
>
> Mike
Mike,
good article from Haskin on the \"quick\" factor.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2008/07/14/Curlin-Revisited.aspx
Mike D,
Haskin sees it the same as I do. Curlin is a very serious long strider who can just keep going. His Achilles heel is his lack of quick but unfortunately even having tossed him, I was unable to close the p4 and p6 with him off both tickets. Good luck at the SPA.
Mike
Good article. I think he\'s exactly right.