I tried to get a thread going on the ROTW a few weeks ago and it went nowhere. I thought I would try one more time. The Cigar Mile looks like a very interesting race with an unusually strong field for this time of year. The G1 mile brings together an intriguing mix of routers cutting back and sprinters stretching out and natural milers switching from turf to dirt after pointing toward the BC mile. Exactly the kind of race that can generate very different opinions from very good handicappers and, not suprisingly, I agree with most of the TG analysis but do have a few significantly different opinions.
It is important to note that if Bonapaw, Resolve, Congaree and Crafty C.T. all go, the pace is likely to be very hot, which needs to be factored into the analysis.
Here is a quick horse by horse look.
Bonapaw - I am a lot more negative on him than TG. He has never been able to handle a hot pace and run his top and he will see one tomorrow and he will have to try and carry his speed a mile. I don\'t like him at all.
Resolve - No chance.
Harlan\'s Holiday - I have always thought he was a middle distance horse. They tried to stretch him out to the classic distances this spring and failed and again this fall with the same results. Assuming that he is sound, he should improve with the cutback in distance and he has enough early foot to stay within striking range. I don\'t like his near-term pattern much but he would probably have a more impressive record if he were not a tweener and he does have a shot in here.
Crafty CT - The one front-runner that might be able to handle the pace. Still very iffy and is coming off a top and is a likely favorite. He has a shot but no value.
Congaree - Great play against. In fact, he has made several races very playable this year. This probably is his best distance and surface but he is still slow compared to the others and offers no value.
Aldebaran – I think the distance fits and that you can ignore his last in the BC Mile (Landseer falling left him no chance). The race should also setup for him and the extra distance will help (he has been sprinting most of the summer). If it were not for Swept Overboard\'s awesome performance this guy would have won the Met earlier this year. However he is the surprising morning line favorite so offers very little value.
Red Bullet - I have to agree with TG that he is a contender and has a good shot but 5/1 is probably just a little higher than fair value.
Windsor Castle – He looks like the real value in this race. I think he has about as good a shot as the other 4 main contenders (Red Bullet, Aldebaran, Crafty CT and Harlan\'s Holiday) and he is likely to be at much higher odds.
Griffinite – No chance.
Multiple Choice – Not impossible but hard to like.
In summary, Windsor Castle looks like the key with Red Bullet, Aldebaran, Crafty C.T. and Harlan\'s Holiday the horses most usable with him in the gimmicks.
Good luck to all.
Chris
Interesting indeed, for a variety of reasons. Supposedly, Bonapaw\'s extraordinarily slow for him last work was designed in part so he would not neccessarily go for the lead in this race. I\'m not sure this is his best distance, and he has had a fairly long campaign for a 6 yr old. Yet, he did throw in the neg 2.25 in his next to last in 2001.
Congaree is a need the lead type, but it seems he would have to be hard used to get it here. He\'s the one I see as not being able to handle the kind of fractions likely in this spot.
It\'s also not entirely clear to me based on his last 2 that Crafty CT needs or will go for the lead, though I think he might be able to clear this field if PVal was so inclined. Interesting, isn\'t it, that PVal passes up live mounts in $200k & $500k races at Hol to travel cross country to ride in a $350k race at Aqu. The connections must feel that they\'ve turned the corner with Crafty, as this is his 4th race in a fairly short time for him, and the SA works are very impressive. Yet, I seem to recall stats along the lines that horses coming out of BC races are not a particularly good bet next time out.
I don\'t think it\'s entirely out of the question that Resolve goes for & gets the lead, and you can make a kinky handicapping kind of case that he might do more running than his nos. suggest. Whoever made the decision to claim this Az bred for $100k a couple of races after he was claimed for $50k must have seen something which convinced him that he could improve the horse. The 11/12 SA work may have given him hope that he was right, which led to the ship, followed by the impressive 6f work on the Bel training track. He\'ll get a little of my exotics play if he\'s 50-1 or higher.
Reportedly, this is Red Bullet\'s last race. Does that mean that Orseno will pull out all the stops on a horse which has been plagued with physical problems for much of his career, and if so, will that be enough to overcome a deep closing style which may be at something of a disadvantage at Aqu?
As always, the bottom line for me would be a comparison between my opinion and that of the betting public, and this is one of those races where it is very difficult if not impossible to predict what the final odds will actually be. As I see it, Crafty & Red have the highest percentage chances of winning, but whether their odds will be high enough to justify a bet remains to be seen.
Mall,
Interesting notes on Resolve. I still think he is just too slow to have much of a chance but you make some interesting points and Levine is red hot if you look at his last 90 day stats. If Resolve does run a big one, I would watch all of Levine\'s horses from now on. Resolve is much the slowest in the race and a need-the-lead type that is unlikely to get the lead. An in-the-money effort will be a good indicator that his barn may need to be added to the \"Enhance Past Opinions (EPO)\" list.
Regarding the pace, I imagine that some of the front-runners may indeed try to rate behind the lead but, even if they do, they will be taken out of there best game and still be pressing a hot pace.
Bonapaw is the one that may be able to clear early but he is on the rail and is not a good gate horse. I have a hard time seeing a horse that always goes to the lead, can breeze in 57 and is coming out of the BC sprint not being on or pressing the lead in here.
Resolve - It will be a surprise if he does anything but gun from the 2 hole. He may not be quick enough but he will try.
Congaree - They have tried rating him in the past and it did not work very well. I have to believe he will be gunning from the start.
Crafty CT - They may try to rate him but Pat V. is the best gate rider around and he is coming out of the BC sprint. It is hard to see him sitting very far off the lead.
So you have 4 fast horses that want to be on or near the lead. This race looks to setup just like the Met eariler this year. In that race, Crafty CT pressed a hot pace 5-wide and tired along with the other front runners (which included Left Bank) setting it up for Swept Overboard who had a perfect rail trip and Aldebaran who closed from farther outside. I see either Aldebaran, Red Bullet and Windsor Castle reprising a similar 1-2 finish in this race.
Should be a good one.
Good luck to all.
Chris
P.S. Mall - I hope you stay hot.
Hello Boys, I think Aldebaran can\'t be beaten here, not!!!. I like C.T. line. I am less inclined to throw out H.H. because I think he can come back to a 1-2. Bonapaw I think is done for now, he might run a 2 here. W. Castle has a good line but the last is the best that he can do right now, same goes for R. Bullet. I think if CT can repeat, he wins otherewise, Castle and Bullet look as good as anyone and would likely play Castle since he is much higher on the board.
Fall 1977 I started going to the track. Picking winners and cashing bets was difficult given the information at hand in those days. So I started reading, researching, trying to find a way, a handicapping method to employ which would make the money flow more of a two-way intercourse. Ainslie--freshman studies, Beyer--speed specialization, Quirin--statistics--applied handicapping.
Started working at TG in 92. Performance figures informing form cycles were like an alternative curriculum and philosophy, not the theory per se, that made sense, but the fervent belief, that they and they alone could provide the clearest solutions to the handicapping problems at hand.
Often discussing races JB would say to me, Alan your mind is cluttered with irrevelant thoughts--forget how the horse did in 30k company (he lost yet was being raised to 45k, etc.) or so he\'s off a layoff, look at what he did last time off the layoff, etc.
Plus I had a healthy degree of skepticism. I didn\'t really know him, yet I was suppose to bet based purely on figure theory. And frankly, why couldn\'t he perpetuate the theories he espoused. After all he made the figures. (And I had the advantage of getting TG for free.)
The point is that over the years I began to trust the numbers, and I say over the years. It takes time to let go of things learned and internalized over the course of many years.
Now this is not to say that figures are the be-all and end-all. They are not and never have been. Accurate figures on a graph do provide the most significant information concerning a horses\' talent, ability and condition. Often these data points are solely sufficient to solve the handicapping equation at hand.
At other times, their weight, importance, is less significant which is why we append trainer,sire and jockey information. And by the way, we, TG, were the first to disseminate these types of data daily.
In a perfect world, horses would run to their figures all the time. But we know that doesn\'t happen. Form cycles are not static or perfectly predictable. Other factors, non-quantifable, often surface and prevail.
Nevertheless over the long run in this game, the figures prevail. The fastest horses
given the conditions at hand--weight and post (prospective ground loss or saved)--win much more than often than the slower ones. No surprises there, but you have to TRUST the figures.
This long-winded spiel is merely a preface to stating my agreement and disagreement to Chris\' and Mall\'s take, respectively, on Resolve in the Cigar Mile, and Jerry\'s too for that matter.
Resolve has no figures good enough to win--he has to run a top and all the others have to throw stinkers. Resolve is much more likely to finish last than first, and I feel he can\'t be used at any odds.
I disagree with Chris concerning Bonapaw. Chris, you must use pace figures, because Bonapaw has put up negative figures after running some very fast, unadjusted, half splits. Whether he can perform equally well going 8 furlongs is to my mind the question he has to answer. But given his back figures and the timing, I think he\'s a strong contender, too.
Crafty CT is difficult to read. Horses don\'t bounce off negative figures the way they use to. So like Mall interprets, Crafty CT may have turned the corner, in which case, he\'s fast enough to contend and win.
Red Bullet is ouchy. A repeat of his last probably won\'t be good enough to win and even his top, given a wide trip, may fall short. And he could bounce too.
Harlan\'s Holiday\'s last was a stinker, but the only he\'s thrown in a year. I\'m inclined to dismiss it and look for a much improved performance, perhaps a new top. I disagree with JB on this one, more in accord with Chris. But HH probably does need a new top to win, so whether he\'s value or not we won\'t find out until race time.
Windsor Castle looks to be value, if the ML holds. His top is fast enough to win, but he\'s only run it once. His other efforts aren\'t good enough.
Aldebaran is solid but suffers from the closer\'s plight--ground loss. Third and second is more likely.
Griffinite and Congaree are slow. Multiple Choice has to improve from an outside post.
Good luck.
And sometimes the bear eats you.
Thanks to Mall, OPM and TGAB (glad you joined in) for contributing opinions on this week\'s ROTW. It was a good discussion. Of course, the one low-priced horse that we all agreed was a bet against (Congaree) jumped up and won (and likely ran a big new top) but that\'s racing.
Let\'s do it again next week.
Chris
I don\'t know if he ran that big of a top, maybe to 0, since the others all had ?s coming into this race. It was a great race from a figures standpoint to be esp. since Bullet was the fav. Castle 0 in his last was obviously a secondary top but again was the play in this race at the odds. Should be a good week, next wk with the races at Sam Houston.
I have to imagine we are looking at a huge figure here. One of the fastest miles ever run at Aqu while running three wide? Baffert can really wind em up..... makes it difficult to handicap at times (I didn\'t like the horse either).
Hi fellas, been away and just got a chance to read the discussion of the ROTW. I noticed that no one mentioned how CONGAREE was training (he threw down some serious 3/4 mi works) and we know whe liked the surface having beat Medaglia D\'Ora in the WM in the spring. I\'m not saying I would have bet him
but I am surprised not too many folks gave him much of a shot. I saw the race on TVG and I was asking myself if Congaree is a 1 turn mile specialist because he certainly exploded from the 1/4 pole to the wire.
Nunzio
I think you meant Congaree won the Wood last year as Buddah beat MDO this year.
Thanks mark, I should know better than to post after getting off the Red eye......
My pleasure. I hope they didn\'t hold you up too long at the airport.....
Chris,
How about Calder next Sat? I give that track a shot two or three times a year, and rarely win. It looks like they have put together a pretty good card though (good enough to get the DRF ROTW nod). Four graded stakes.... let\'s pick one or two races and see if anybody can come up with a good idea or two.
Mike,
I probably will not have time for the Calder card this Saturday but don\'t let me stop the rest of you. I can probably chime in on the ROTW but that is about it. Maybe the following Saturday we can do something similar to what you suggest. Sounds like fun.
Chris
pick the track a couple days ahead, and I\'ll play alomng, too.