thoughts?
I liked Frost Giant in the Skip Away H after his negative .25 first time dirt. fortunately, the horse opened up at 4/5, and went off as the big fave. saved some money as FG bounced pretty good. returns to dirt off two decent turf races, last better than it looked. nice timing here, gets in at 114 lbs, and the jock has nice ground stats.
a 1w/1w negative 1/4 could win this at the ml of 12-1.
Mike:
Oh, what of the days of Winter\'s Tale, Czaravich, Fit To Fight, Personal Flag, Forego, Loud, and Upper Nile.
Now we have the likes of AP Arrow, Frost Giant, and the great Hunting.
My call is Merchant Marine who had a \"workout\" on the 20th. Loves Belmont, improving 4 yo and makes one sweeping move to run his negative 1 1/2.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
This is the kind of field Its Academic used to beat up on at AQU during the winter Grade 3 races years ago. Where\'s Kings Swan when you need him? I can\'t believe how far this game has sunk.
Joe B,
I am guessing you didn\'t watch Merchant Marine\'s last race, if you are thinking it was a workout. I had a pretty large bet on the horse he ran down. MM was under pressure on the far turn, was all out through the entire stretch and got by very late.
It would take really long odds for me to take that horse 8 days after that race.
Michael,
Hate to force your horse (frost giant) to carry additional weight, but I like him as well. Dirt seems like his best surface. I think having RR up helps the price. I have never been a fan of AP Arrow and am not going to start now after the Dubai trip. I will also key Frost Giant at what I expect to be close to his morning line odds of 12-1.
Jim
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Joe B,
>
> I am guessing you didn\'t watch Merchant Marine\'s
> last race, if you are thinking it was a workout.
> I had a pretty large bet on the horse he ran down.
> MM was under pressure on the far turn, was all
> out through the entire stretch and got by very
> late.
>
> It would take really long odds for me to take that
> horse 8 days after that race.
>
> Michael,
>
> Hate to force your horse (frost giant) to carry
> additional weight, but I like him as well. Dirt
> seems like his best surface. I think having RR up
> helps the price. I have never been a fan of AP
> Arrow and am not going to start now after the
> Dubai trip. I will also key Frost Giant at what I
> expect to be close to his morning line odds of
> 12-1.
>
> Jim
I think Merchant Marine will be a \'0\' type this year, but he got a pretty good trip last, and was used from about 5/16 out. I\'m predicting the jump comes later in the year.
not sure what to make of AP Arrow as the favorite. with a 3w trip under 118 lbs, he\'s probably going to need a negative \'1\' to win this, which is possible.
this Mother Goose field is a shame. running down Proud Spell in a 4 horse field is a lot to ask, but Music Note looks like she could be something special. I\'ll have MN in the pk\'s.
Michael,
31-1. At least we got the right odds.
Solar Flare\'s negative 2.5 stands out, but it was the midlantic region and he adds lasix after a big performance. Not sure that isn\'t a sign the race took a lot out of him.
Have to use him though.
Jimbo/Michael:
WOW!
Jimbo & Michael,
NICE WORK!
Are they kidding with the exacta? $265??
A general rule of thumb I\'ve always used is win x place, and in this case it\'s equal to $560!
That\'s not cool.
Nice score guys! Congrats.
I feel confident in calling this the overlay of the year.
the horse was a negative .25 first dirt, and ran the final 1/8 like he wanted more distance. Prado got sucked into a rabbit pace next, and the horse probably was going to bounce anyway. two nice turf tighteners, and BINGO!! didn\'t hurt that he\'s by Giants Causeway, and his 3rd dam is Dance Number, dam of Traver\'s winner Rhythm.
anyway, good hit Jim.
I had Music Note singled in the pk3, and crushed that as well.
THanks for the kind words.
It is never good sportsmanship to complain about prices, when you cash big, but let me say that the prices were interesting in the exacta and pick-3.
40-1 over 9-2 pays 260 instead of $500 in the exacta.
I can kind of believe that one, in that it is a two speed number.
But the late pick-3.
Beat the Oaks winner in the first race, get a 40-1 shot in the 2nd and then a 7-1 in the night cap.
Parlay is 1600+. Payout is 729.
Ouch.
Tough game.
p
Bet the Suburban winner a little, but the last race (nose) winner gave me a significant piece of the pick 4 pool. Played FK flat in the pick 4s with 3 other horses, got the maximum result.
thanks Bit, richie .... just when I was beginning to think this was all a waste of time!!
Michael D. Wrote:
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> thanks Bit, richie .... just when I was beginning
> to think this was all a waste of time!!
Waste of time???
No way!
Nice post and hit. You\'re too humble.
Nice hit Michael, Jimbo and others.
TGAB,
Warming up for opening weekend at the spa!
Are you having the Carolina Barbecues this year?
If so, did you guys decide who has opening weekend yet?
We\'re planning to. We\'re getting organized right now. Will let you know details within a week or so. But I do believe JB will be there opening weekend; not sure who if anyone is joining him yet.
Hope you got a lot more double-digit winners in the grab bag.
Good hit guys!
don\'t understand this post, len friedman gave the horse out as a key on their rotw, so after the fact you come on and brag that you hit it, do you keep the loses quiet?
if you liked a 40-1 shot why didn\'t you do that race as the rotw?
BIG DEAL.....
I\'ve hit the Suburban every year but 2 since 1902, and with a lot better ROI.
Just kidding, in case anyone misses Chuckles.
Nice hit guys!!!
high roller Wrote:
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> don\'t understand this post, len friedman gave the
> horse out as a key on their rotw, so after the
> fact you come on and brag that you hit it, do you
> keep the loses quiet?
>
> if you liked a 40-1 shot why didn\'t you do that
> race as the rotw?
Don\'t know about Friedman, but in looking at the analysis on TG Redboard room just now...the bet was #4 (larry jones\' horse), boxed with Naughty New Yorker...how do Jerry and boys take credit for that? Michael D is the one who stuck this under our noses...nice handicapping MD!
\"I bet on [Rising Moon], but what am I going to do?\" Dutrow said. \"I got to be happy.
....always wanted to be a bookmaker for owners, trainers and grooms(not certain clockers)
Mike
I would guess TGAB did the analysis, not TGJB, because the analysis didn\'t get any of the legs of the pick-4 right, let alone Frost Giant. (no offense Allan!!!)
If I am not mistaken, TG picked Frost Giant in the Skip Away. So the horse must have been on their radar.
I still can\'t believe we got 40-1 on that horse...exacta price and pik 3 were more like he went off his morning line odds..I guess one of the main ragozin guys gave out the horse...so some of their players may have sent it in when it came to the exotics. I still can\'t believe we got 40-1!
You are right APNY, in that FG was more like 12-1 to 15-1 in the exotics, than 40-1, especially the multi-race bets.
Jim, looked to me like AP Arrow got a single win bet that distorted the pool. AP went from 5-2 to 8-5 in a single tick, while FG went from 16-1 to 26-1 at the same time. how big was the win pool?
By the way guys nice score. These types may only came along once a summer.
Stellar Jayne from a few years back is one that comes to mind.
No Redboard bullsh!t from this bunch.
Roller-- first of all, Len, Michael and Jimbo all liked FK more than I did.
I played the last 4 races at Belmont individualy, and as a pick 4, because they were betting a way-too-slow maiden winner in the first leg, and I thought I could beat the big favorite in the Mother Goose. If you beat those two you had to eliminate 90% of the tickets. I went 3 x 2 x 4 x 2.
In the seventh I boxed 3 horses, they ended up in the 4 horse blanket at the wire, I ran 1-2-4, got the exacta but not the tri. I used the winner half as much in pick 4s as the other two.
In the Mother Goose I boxed two, got put up into the exacta. I used the winner 3 times as much in pick 4s.
So now I get to the Suburban, where I used 4 horses, and played it flat. Since 3 of them were 9/2 or less and one was 40-1, it wasn\'t too hard to figure out to key FK. Within the race, I would have done just as well running second (or third, but not behind the one that ran third). It was strictly an odds play for me. But it made a huge difference for the pick 4.
I was live with the winner and third finisher of the last. I think I won that photo by an inch or less, for 20-25% of the pool (after takeout).
Two things-- first of all, as I\'ve said here before,in the short run photos have a huge impact on your results-- since everything is so leveraged in this game, going 7-3 vs. 3-7 is gigantic.
Secondly, it all evens out. I had been getting killed on photos for months. I could have lost the photo in the first leg (though I did have 3 of the 4), or the last, and FK didn\'t win by that much, which would have made a hell of a difference. But in one day I got back months of photos.
I doubt betting patterns were a significant factor in this case, but when some less sophisticated bettors key on a horse, they use the ALL button a lot.
As a result, longshots tend to get overbet in exotics with contenders because people will play \"their horse with ALL\" and \"ALL with their horse\" but not in proportion to the win odds. The 2nd place finsher was enough of a major contender to get bet that way.
Speaking of which-- Roger (my partner in Graph racing) is in the Hollywood handicapping contest, and the photo for second in the third race just moved him from fifth to the lead at $27,9 (started with 7.5k). Think they ended up with 65 players, 10 go to Vegas.
The Suburban winner had a bettable line into the race, but is trained by a questionable trainer does that affect your opinion? Im confident that tricky will use any advantage to win. Isn\'t that the objective? to cash those nice tickets? Unless they demand zero tolerance on race day meds the chicanery will continue.
You said 20-25% of the Pool after takeout. Below is from drf.com on the payout and pool. If I am reading this correctly all I can say is NICE FREAKIN HIT.
$2 Pick 4 (7-4-2-1) 4 Correct Paid $9,439.00 Pick 4 Pool $364,739
20-25% after takeout.
It was a photo with serious ramifications.
Send some of that luck of yours my way.
It has been a tough week.
Congrats!!
Beats place betting. ;-)
Very Nice Score! Congrats!
Jimbo/Michael D:
Jimbo ...you were right on with MM in the Suburban. Thanks to both of you I caught the Pick 3 (starting with a single on WESLEY...what a ride by Ramon) 20 times by including FG. U.ncle S.uck took a little over $7K (the government is full of great handicappers) but you take what you get in this game!!
THANK YOU!!!
Good Luck,
Joe B.
TGJB - nice wager! While interpreting the sheet numbers is certainly a skill, setting up the wagers and the savers you sketched might be more of a skill. In particular, how you mentioned A)you thought the crowd was backing a slow horse in the 7th, and that you could beat the big favorite in the 8th, thus eliminating 90% of the competetion. Thus the pick 4 wager, and the 3x2x4x2 format. If you would, could you go into a bit more detail on how you set up the wager, (I used the winner half as much as the pick 4 in the 7th, used the winner 3 times as much in the pick 4\'s, etc.\" I am not interested in the size of each wager, just trying to learn better how to construct them, and set up up wager savers to insure you for instance you do not have a scenario where - you have the $82 winner in the pick 4, with no other savers, or lose the photo in the 10th, and any of the myriad of ways to lose the wager. It sounds like you had multiple ways set to at least attempt to break even, and if all things work out, make a major score. Since most people are pretty fair at the handicapping part of the picture, but horrible at wager construction piece of the puzzle, I am just looking for idea\'s there. If so thanks for the help - BB
There were no hedges built into the pick 4. I was playing the races individually, and if I was going hedge I would have played late doubles with horses that could win the last I was not alive with. But until FK won there wasn\'t really serious money at stake, and by then it was too late to play doubles. I did play FK within the race, as I said before-- I wasn\'t going to have him win and then not cash the pick 4 and come up empty. Once I got to the last, I couldn\'t figure out a good hedge, so I just sat, watched, and lost five years of my life through the stretch.
The key thing (as I said in the betting guidelines in the Archives section of this site) is to examine what you like about the race, or sequence. I laid out the reasons why I bet the pick four-- the decision to play pick fours was the key decicion.
I like to see people win. Novices who bet colors or educated horseplayers like TGJB...still, there is something unseemly seeing this on the board where the product being sold - the analysis specifically - did not have a single winner in the pik 4...not a route I would take with my business, but you are the champ I guess. Whether you or Alan or whoever did the analysis doesn\'t matter to your customers..it\'s all TGraph.
TGJB Wrote:
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> There were no hedges built into the pick 4. I was
> playing the races individually, and if I was going
> hedge I would have played late doubles with horses
> that could win the last I was not alive with. But
> until FK won there wasn\'t really serious money at
> stake, and by then it was too late to play
> doubles. I did play FK within the race, as I said
> before-- I wasn\'t going to have him win and then
> not cash the pick 4 and come up empty. Once I got
> to the last, I couldn\'t figure out a good hedge,
> so I just sat, watched, and lost five years of my
> life through the stretch.
>
> The key thing (as I said in the betting guidelines
> in the Archives section of this site) is to
> examine what you like about the race, or sequence.
> I laid out the reasons why I bet the pick four--
> the decision to play pick fours was the key
> decicion.
Good point Shanahan-hope to see an answer from TG
The answer is that I had no idea who Alan had put up when I made my post.