Sometimes it\'s not the size of the tank that matters but how much fuel is in there.
As Jerry gets much credit for pointing out: three classic distance races in three weeks under 126 pounds take a toll. But the reverse side of that coin is also true. Horses coming into the Belmont off preps that haven\'t demanded much of them have a competitive advantage. D\'Tara and Ready\'s Echo both carried 116 lbs in their last race. And I would submit this was not coincidence; that if the horses were being pointed for the Belmont, the preps were chosen partially for there low weight assignment.
For there is in Racing a concept I\'ll call cumulative enervation. Which simply means that horses running under high weights will fall apart quicker than horses running under moderate weights. And indeed, one of the qualities that separate great horses from good horses is the ability to maintain their form under high weight assignments.
Another way of looking at this: I have long maintained that the weight assignments in the Triple Crown races are inherently unfair. That a horse should be penalized for each leg of the Crown he skips with an additional 2lb. impost. So you want to skip the Derby and the Preakness you carry 130 in the Belmont. I\'m not under any illusion that such a policy will ever be adopted,if only because no trainer in his right mind would ever run his three year old a mile and a half under 130 pounds. But that doesn\'t mean that the lack of such a policy has not caused competitive distortions which the trainer and the bettor can use to their advantage. Certainly, one of the reason the Triple Crown has become increasingly hard to win is because trainers have become more adept at pointing towards the Belmont. I mean, how many New York City marathons do you think Bill Rodgers would have won if he had to compete against runners who joined the race with him at the 20 mile mark? But factored into this modern targeting of the Belmont is the fact that at equal weights horses who have skipped previous legs of the Crown are actually getting, according to my logic, a weight advantage. That just because the weight penalty does not exist, doesn\'t mean it shouldn\'t exist, which in turn doesn\'t mean the bettor can\'t factor it into his handicapping. And it\'s as simple as looking at a horse and saying he should be carrying 130 today but he\'s only under 126. Weight advantage (easier race) to the new comer. A much easier race in hot, humid weather.