If you were there for the BB work this morning any comments on the gallop out?
14 and change seems a lot slower than his prior work gallop outs unless they shut him down by design.
Looking at the fractions, it seems he was slowing down a lot before the 5f mark. 23 3/5 and 35 1/5 and then 1:00 flat?
Almost looks like a 4F work.
Not there guys, but I would not get too worked up, since Tricky was looking for 1.01 thereabouts.I\'m sure the critiques on the work will be coming in soon. One DRF writer had BB working poorly pre derby and look how he ran.Also many stories about CD not looking great in his works last week. Minutia and information overload,imo.
Would think that the next 48 hours will tell the BB story after putting pressure on his feet for the first time since the quarter crack.
The weather is supposed to be 90+ degrees on Sat and that could be a real factor re washouts.
Mike
Got him in
23.31, 35.29, 47.38, 100.27
He galloped out another 1/8 in about 14 (was tough to see exactly when he hit the pole from the angle)
He looked smooth and comfortable and did it well within himself. Rider hardly moved except to let him run coming into and off of the turn. Didn\'t seem to take much out of him at all. Was hoping to see a strong gallop out in 13 or so, or even better yet a double gallop out, but he was immediately put under heavy restraint after completing the move and seemed to listen to the rider and shut down. Don\'t know for sure but BB did not seem to be blowing at all after the move.
There were not many other workers on the track to compare this to, and I\'m not sure about the quality of the ones that were there. The track did seem slow and tiring as there were not many fast times and the ones that went fast had to be urged or even urged hard to complete their moves, even some of the shorter ones.
Overall assessment: no one that worked looked as good as he did or went anywhere near as fast as he did so easily, but then again if he is on top of his game and a potential Triple Crown winner then that is how it should be. This was an above average work with a good/average gallop out. He was fastest in the middle part of the work, which is usually not what you look for. This seemed more like a maintenance move and they did not let him do very much. I would have rather seen a slow, steady work with progressively faster 1/8ths and a stronger gallop out. Overall this was an above average work with a fair gallop out that would be typical of a front running style horse. Guess the most important thing will be how his hoof holds up and how he acts afterwards.
For what it is worth, here are some other thoughts on some of the others.
Casino Drive was on the wrong lead galloping yesterday and counter-cantered around the turn. TOE\'s final workout time was fast but he was also blowing quite hard afterwards. I\'ve heard DC is training like a monster and seems to be coming into the race as good as can be. I was also told that MA also looks even better and came home like a freight train late, with a very strong gallop out in his penultimate work. No other info to report. Check DRF and the Bloodhorse for more.
Pending further info and based upon what I think so far, my strategy would be to play against BB in the Pick 4 and/or pick 6 and use DC & MA instead. I will then hedge by playing BB as a win key in the Belmont EXA, TRI and SUPER. I do not think CD or TE will take 2nd in this race. CD just looks off to me, then again I don\'t know much about eastern training methods and he may yet work before the race. TE looked tired to me after his work and I don\'t think he wanted any part of 1 1/2 anyway. To my eye AN is also a very sneaky horse to hit the board in this race.
Any look at Ready\'s Echo?
What does \"counter canter on the turn\" mean?
Here\'s the only footage I\'ve found. Not much, but it\'s something...
He\'s a smooth mover, although the front-to-back foot rhythm is a little different than some other horses.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/ny-spbigbrown0604,0,5515655.story
counter canter means leading with the opposite feet front and back, so right front lead, left rear lead, etc. It\'s an awkward way for a horse to move.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> counter canter means leading with the opposite
> feet front and back, so right front lead, left
> rear lead, etc. It\'s an awkward way for a horse
> to move.
aka cross firing. generally not a good thing.
See The Green Monkey.
No info on Ready\'s Echo. I read your post and I know you like him Sekrah, but he is still eligible for a ALWN1X and is sired by More Than eady. I know Kingmambo on the dam\'s side helps, but....
Just to be clear, there is nothing in BB\'s work that makes me want to play against him. The rider never asked him much less sat down. This was purely a maintenance move.
Barring further developments, the only reason I am going to make a play against BB in the pick 4 is because I really don\'t like Casino Drive. I would estimate that a minimum of 85% of all the Pick 4 tickets will have either BB or CD winning the Belmont. A million things can happen in a race and the best horse does not always win. See Smarty Jones, IMO he ran the best race in the Belmont and he still lost. See also Spectacular Bid, terrible ride whether he stepped on a pin or didn\'t.
Also, no matter what the connections say, BB does have a well documented physical ailment. I don\'t care what his connections say, if that thing cracks or gives way at all, even 1/2 inch in the race, BB is bound to become uncomfortable and that may be enough to prove his undoing. So let\'s just say that has a 5% chance of happening, this would equate to fair odds of 20-1. If you are like me and you don\'t like CD, the Pick 4 payoffs will be enormous if BB runs out. Even if you spread very deep you may be laying around 1000-1 on your money or more. So to play it that way vs 20-1 fair odds is still a huge overlay. It\'s just a math thing, or a hedge.
When Stewart Elliott gave an interview about 25 minutes before the Belmont and answered a question saying it didn\'t matter that he had not ridden much at Belmont, I turned to my friends and said \"he loses.\"
Then he makes a typical 1-mile track move halfway down the backstretch, asking SJ for everything for the half-mile run to the wire....except there\'s still six furlongs to go. Idiot.
Sorry for the \"Work\" thread. I didn\'t read the MJellish/Miff thread prior to posting. Thanks for the on-track reporting:-) You kinda remind me of Haskin.
Anyways - I read the Bloodhorse story and it said BB was eager to do more. You know Dutrow will blow him out 3F Saturday morning just to take the starch out. Kent D will have another Cadillac cruise around there. If there\'s no blood seeping from the hoof tonight or tomorrow following today\'s move it\'s OVER. BB is KING and gets his crown at 6pm Eastern 6/7.
Too bad I\'ll be stuck in Indy working without TV. I will have to find Dave Johnson\'s call online somewhere
Mjellish:
I respect any opinion from someone who once ( still does?) had the stength, discipline, emotional stability, etc. to play this game professionally.
That being said; if Macho Again wins the Belmont, I\'ll stop playing this game on the grounds that it is completely unbeatable.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I think the biggest risk to BB is the 12 furlongs. It would have been a risk to begin with, but it rose because of question marks about his fitness. We have seen other examples of horses with minor hoof issues missing some training and then not running a peak effort. That\'s really the only thing I am worried about with this horse.
Even though I am basically clueless as a pedigree handicapper, when I see the name Boundary I can\'t help but be a bit squeamish about that last 1/4 mile no matter what\'s on the other side. In addition, we shouldn\'t forget that even though this horse has very rateable speed, he has a LOT of speed. The Seattle Slews of the world are very rare. Most horses blessed with that kind of really high quality speed are not also blessed with superior stamina like Slew. SS was kind of super freakish. Perhaps BB will get 12F well enough to win or get away easy early, but I wouldn\'t be shocked to find out he\'s a tad better at 10F than 12F. So if someone moves up or he\'s used early, the last 1/8th could get very interesting.
Stamina is not something bred into a horse on the stallion side.
The elements that influence it the most (circulatory system, respiratory system, nerve system, mitochondria) are all inherited on the dam side. The X chromosome.
The stallion gives skeletal balance and structural integrity, which is why many top distance runners are sired by sprinters and milers (think Mr. Prospector and Fappiano).
The Phipps family at one time only kept mares who had won at 9 furlongs or more, regardless of how brilliant their shorter races were. For this reason.
Read past posts on the topic.
Thanks for that breeding lesson. Very interesting. But at very long distances I\'m still going to discount the chances of horses by sprinter sires relative to horses by sires with more stamina even if the other side looks great. I have no expertise, but I have 30 years of observation that makes me think the sire matters too. ;-)
Alm,
Sad there are no more Phipps families left in the game.
That was when horses didn\'t run on Lasix, Bute, Clenbuterol, EPO , milkshakes and other drugs that enhance the performance of the circulatory, respiratory and nerve system functions.
Alm
After your post I had to look this up to make sure. According to Lauren Stich, \"The male parts of a pedigree (the sire and broodmare sire) determine the distance and surface where the runner will be most effective. The female parts of a pedigree (Dam and her tail-female family) determine racing class.\"
She appears to express a different opinion than yours.
Not really Wrongly...it\'s an interesting quote, but very simplistic...both parents contribute 50% of the gene pool, but the equine genome was the first to be decoded (by Australian scientists.) Their findings are pretty conclusive about which parent dominates which traits.
Having said that, the stallion does in fact influence distance ability because the stallion contributes dominent influences on the muscular-skeletal structure. It\'s an important component leading to balance and stride.
However, her use of the word \'class\' is simplistic. What constitutes class? Hard to define. The mare dominates the contribution of heart size and circulatory health, which feeds into and may dominate stamina influences. Call it class it you want. But it has a lot to do with getting a distance of ground.
Look at Elusive Quality and Distorted Humor. Chances are you would not have guessed they would get Smarty Jones and Funnycide, based on their racing records. In fact they get lots of good horses running all distances because in part they contribute a very balanced horse with a very efficient stride.
The dam of Casino Drive (Jazil and Rags to Riches) is the poster girl for contributing stamina to her foals because of the influences cited above.
Secretariat got his heart from his mom...it was triple the size of the average equine heart. Secretariat could not pass his heart size to his sons, because it could only come down the female line. He did however pass it to his daughters (extra X chromosome) who themselves passed it to some of their foals.
It\'s a complicated subject. I only write about it to comment on whether BB can get 12 furlongs or not at his best speed. Chances are that he can.
Alm-
With all due respect, as a scientist with knowledge of the subject, I find your statements regarding parental influences on progeny performance are simply a bunch of hogwash. How about the moon sign during the conception period? The evidence is just as good. If, as you say, there are legitimate scientific studies from Australia that support your statements, please post the references so we can all be informed of this truly important information on equine genetics.
That sound you hear is Gregor Mendel turning over in his grave.
I\'m not a scientist or breeding expert, but past evidence tends to support what ALM is saying.
Did Afleet Alex dominate the Belmont because Afleet was his father or because Hawkster sired his mother (Maggy Hawk)?
Or did Point Given dominate because Thunder Gulch was his dad or because Turkoman sired his mom? Speaking of Thunder Gulch, did he dominate because Gulch was his dad or because Storm Bird sired his mom?
Want more? Editor\'s Note\'s daddy was Forty Niner, hardly a stayer; but his mom was sired by Caveat, a Belmont winner. Colonial Affair was by Pleasant Colony, but his mom was sired by Nijinsky II.
I doubt you will find many Belmont winners who had moms sired by sprinters!!
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Look Electrocutioner, this site is not appropriate to a full discussion of this stuff and I don\'t like to use ad hominum arguments in place of real discourse. However, using Mendel as a reference on genetics indicates you must have been a hell of a scientist...a hundred years ago!
You have no idea as to what you are talking about or you are woefully out of touch with the genome projects...whether they took place in Australia or anywhere else for that matter.
An entire sub-industry exists in the throroughbred breeding world today based upon the matching of phenotypes. A bunch of great horses have been bred as a result...pulling down the things a stallion can deliver, which are a balanced body and efficient stride. Go to Equixbiomechanics site and learn something new.
Alm: There is no need to attack Electrocutioner. If there is indeed an Australian study to support your earlier post, just provide some information about it (perhaps the authors and where it was published) so that those of us who are interested can track it down.
Jbelfior: I don\'t think that Electrocutioner was questioning that the dam side of a pedigree is important. The issue is with Alm\'s suggestion that certain specific characteristics always come from the dam side, while others always come from the sire. While that may be true of some genes, it is not true for most of them. Further, many characteristics are not the result of a single gene, but of the combined effects of many genes, with some coming from each parent.
So you don\'t like to use ad hominem arguments in place of real discourse. Hmmm... maybe you should look up the definition of ad hominem. And don\'t forget to spell it correctly- \"em\" not \"um\".
Regarding your criticism of my mention of Gregor Mendel. Well, he is acknowledged to be the father of genetics. They ARE called the LAWS of Mendelian Inheritance. I don\'t recall anyone saying that they were now obsolete, or that they really should be called the \"Suggestions of Inheritance\".
Regarding having no idea of what I am talking about and being woefully out of touch with the genome projects (another \"non-ad hominem\" reference), I do know that one of us has been a contributor to several of the genome projects. I am reasonably confident that that person is not you.
All of this is obviously just to change the conversation. I am still waiting for the reference that you speak of.
As far as the Equix group, I have no issue with making mating decisions based on phenotype. That has been done since the breed began. But what you wrote was about certain traits being inherited in a sex-specific way.
And by the way, I did not engage in an ad hominem attack. I did not attack you; I wrote that your statement was hogwash. A properly worded ad hominem argument would have said something like \"Gee, you must be really stupid if you believe that nonsense!\". I didn\'t say that, but if that\'s how you took it, then so be it.
Flawless retort!
Just a thought that would support alm.
There isn\'t a single horse in the 2008 Belmont Stakes with a Dam\'s Sire that has offspring producing an Average Winning Distance (per BRIS) lower than 7.4 furlongs (Macho Again). There are 6 horses with Sire AWD of 7.0 or lower including, Big Brown, Denis of Cork, Icabad Crane, Macho Again, Ready\'s Echo, Tale of Ekati.
There definently seems to be alot more influence from the stamina of the dam\'s sire than the sire.
First, to take one race as a sample is simply not valid. Do it over 1000 races and apply some real statistics to the results and see what you have.
But that is a moot point. Let\'s say that a one race sample is in fact valid. You state that Alm\'s position is supported by the fact that you have observed that the maternal grandsires have a higher AWD (using an arbitrary cutoff point- this is why you need a much larger sample size- you don\'t really know if 7.4 is different from 7.0, or that both fall within the margin of error and therefore are not different). But Alm\'s main point is that stamina is inherited through the female, through a sex-linked mode of inheritance. There is absolutely no evidence for this. This implies that the genes responsible can only be located on the X chromosome, and no other. That is a preposterous assumption and that is why I asked for the reference- show me the study so we can all look at it, and if it is valid science I will take my hat off to him. But until those studies are done and show convincing results,it is all just speculation, and not at all supported by what we know, based on the genome projects in various species, about which genes are located on which chromosomes.
Another reason that the observation could be refuted is to ask whether you have really done a carefully controlled comparison of the maternal grandsires versus the sires that you checked out. After all, most of the grandsires will have had many more and older crops. Young sires would not be expected to have very high AWDs, since they likely don\'t have many foal crops that have raced through maturity, and so would not have had many opportunities to compete in longer races. So there are a lot of factors that have to be controlled for in order to make such a comparison. You might also want to see if what you have observed in this small sample is any different than what you might find in a much larger randomly selected population.
Show me some real evidence. Or at least a good scientific paper to support the position. That is all I ask.
Just to follow up- I don\'t have AWD stats handy, but I do see that in this Belmont, there are three sires for whom the current crop of three year olds is their oldest crop to race, and two other sires have four year olds racing. Given that younger horses usually run shorter races until they mature, would you agree that this might be responsible for the lower AWD for sires versus grandsires? Maybe a more valid comparison would be to compare the paternal grandsires with the maternal grandsires.
\"As far as the Equix group, I have no issue with making mating decisions based on phenotype. That has been done since the breed began. But what you wrote was about certain traits being inherited in a sex-specific way\"
Elect,
A Question for you, someone close to this,
...fwiw,In 2002 I was approached by a group to invest in horses to be purchased strictly according to Equix Group recommendation.The group spent app $6m from 2002 until 2006 buying 20 yearlings. They recently filed for bankruptcy and dissolved the partnership. I realize that just 20 yearlings is a very small sample.Maybe just a bad run of luck for that group.
If there was any remote key to breeding, do you think that Sheik Mohammed (billions invested with the most competent breeding advisory people in the world) would be in all the big 2/3 yr old races year after year and have purchased many champions.It is a coincidence that the two fastest horses currently on the planet, Curlin and Big Brown were really dismissed at the sales by the \"informed\" breeding/comformation experts.Isn\'t breeding a champion more or less just good fortune/random like shooting dice in a casino.Thanks
Mike
>Isn\'t breeding a champion more or less just good fortune/random like shooting dice in a casino.Thanks <
I think it\'s more like playing a game of cards.
If you have AK-AQ or a high pocket pair you have the best of it over a lot of other hands, but you can still be outdrawn by 72o. ;-)
Miff,
It really is a coincidence that the two fastest horses on the planet are trained by Tricky and Gasmussen.........
Rose,
They were fast when trained by Helen Pitts and Pat Reynolds, I\'m not drinking the Kool Aid on these two freaks.
Mike
Mike,
At least Pat got some commission, but Helen didn\'t even get kissed did she?
Rose,
Paul Pompa did the right thing by Pat Reynolds. Did they stiff Helen Pitts?
Mike
Don\'t know, I was asking.
Electrocutioner -
I am posting, not to support Alm\'s sex-linked inheritance theories, but to call to your attention a paper that may support the additional influence of the dam (but not the dam sire) on stamina. There is a a paper that was published in Mitochondrion a couple of years ago that purports to find a correlation between mtDNA (which I believe is not subject to Mendelian inheritance, but comes from the dam) and optimum racing distance:
http://www.thoroughbredgenetics.com/Mitochondrion%206(2006)%2053-66.pdf
I\'m not sophisticated enough about genetics or statistics to evaluate the paper and would be interested in any comments you might have. The paper came to my attention through a post on this site:
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,26856,26856#msg-26856
I think it would be interesting to see how Better Than Honour\'s genotype fits with the paper\'s findings.
Thanks BitPlayer...good post. Of course, if something can only be inherited from the dam, it is by definition sex-linked. So are all the other influences I\'ve cited.
Try finding Marianna Huan\'s book: The X Factor. Russell Meerdink publishes it.
Good post, good questions.
For sure, the outcome of any breeding is a complex set of genetic interactions. It has to do with sex-linked genes, which can also be dominent or recessive,thus complicating things. It also has to do with the interactions of certain families, whose dna or phenotypes overlap, sometimes in a variety of good or bad ways.
In other words,you can only narrow the possibilities by considering all of the possible outcomes of a particular breeding.
I can tell you that I started to breed a better horse after I began using the Equix concept. I got a graded stakes horse for a $2,000 stud fee; a stakes winner for a $1,000 stud fee; several multiple allowance and high claiming race winners for $500 stud fees. I also bred a statebred Horse of the Year for a $500 stud fee. All of this from the same dupey mares who couldn\'t produce $5,000 maiden claimers before I learned what I\'ve learned.
Alm -
As used in genetics, the term \"sex-linked\" refers to genes located on one of the sex chromosomes (X or Y). Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is found in the mitochondria, not on any chromosome. Because the mitochondria are involved in the process of converting energy to a form the muscles and other cells can use, there is a logical appeal to some of the conclusions of the paper I posted. But one paper is hardly conclusive, and this one certainly doesn\'t support most of your post.
If you are interested in the subject, you should go to a library, borrow a college-level biology textbook, and read the chapter(s) on genetics. The book doesn\'t have to be particularly current to get the basics right. (As you noted, Mendel has been dead a long time.) If you do, you will realize how outlandish your post sounds.
Below are the following past several Ky Derby and BC Classic winners Average Winning Distances for both the Sire and the Dam\'s Sire:
Race Winner Sire AWD Dam\'s Sire AWD
\'04 Classic Ghostzapper 7.4 6.9
\'05 Classic Saint Liam 7.1 7.5
\'06 Classic Invasor 7.4 8.4
\'07 Classic Curlin 7.4 7.6
\'05 Derby Giacomo 6.9 7.0
\'06 Derby Barbaro 8.3 6.4
\'07 Derby Street Sense 7.0 7.1
\'08 Derby Big Brown 7.0 7.9
\'05 Belmont Afleet Alex 6.4 7.9
\'06 Belmont Jazil 7.2 7.6
\'07 Belmont Rags To Riches 8.2 7.6
\'08 Belmont Big Brown 7.0 7.9
Denis of Cork 6.7 7.8
Tale of Ekati 6.7 8.7
Anak Nakal 7.5 7.5
Guadalcanal 6.7 8.9
Macho Again 6.8 7.4
Casino Drive 7.7 7.6
Da\'Tara 7.4 6.7
Ready\'s Echo 6.9 8.4
Icabad Crane 6.9 7.5
Conclusion? Breeding a champion is not a science. AWD of 7.6 on the Dam\'s side makes many of these champions, but what about Ghostzapper, Giacomo, Barbaro, and Street Sense? (Rhetorical).
The two most stark examples are Barbaro and Afleet Alex. On paper, they could have both been thrown out by being light on either the male or female side. Instead, they were both great horses, albeit different running styles.
Just an observation.
Good stuff!
We all like to try to simplify a very complex game with numbers. Numbers, whether they be Thoro performance ratings, pace ratings, Beyers, or dosage numbers all are valuable tools within the horseplayer\'s tool box.
However, other important attributes of a thoroughbred, specifically heart, class, and perseverance (see Afleet Alex), all cannot be quantified.
That being said, I am interested in the 8.7 for TOE.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Bit-
Thanks for the reference. It will take me a few days to go over it, but I will go over it. The paper also has some interesting citations (no pun intended) that I will also get a look at. On first glance, it looks like a well-written paper. The main premise is that mtDNA, being responsible for some genes involved in respiration, may be responsible for female-dominated stamina traits. But given that there are literally hundreds of genes involved in these processes, the influence of other chromosomes is likely much larger. Nonetheless, without having examined it in detail I\'ll withold judgment.
While the paper does make it possible for someone with the right lab tools to examine the genotype (the actual DNA sequence) of these genes, unless you have a piece of Better Than Honour\'s DNA (virtually any tissue, or in the case of mtDNA, hair would work), it would be impossible to determine a genotype. Perhaps you could genotype by descent, but that would assume that you had the DNA sequences of his parents. I am interested in this area, and I do have a lab capable of this kind of work. But the biggest hurdle is to identify naturally occurring genetic variants that confer advantages at different race distances. I do, in fact, believe that this is possible. We already know some of the genes involved. Regarding the current discussion, few of them are mitochondrial. But clearly it would be possible to identify breeding stock and progeny with advantageous genotypes. But the critical factor is knowing which genes to examine, and perservering and being lucky enough to find a variant that really matters.
All that being said, remember that genetics is only part of racing ability. Think of it as genetics just providing a basis- a predisposition. Environmental factors are likely as important- things like maternal care, early experiences, injuries, just about everything that goes into bringing an animal to the races. I am sure you can name many full sibs to great horses but were lousy racehorses. There is still an element of chance in it all.
Smalltimer-
Thanks for the AWD data. It would be interesting to see more Belmont data and compare with other races.
Joe B- By this logic, we shouldn\'t stop at TOE. Let\'s cash in with a Guadalcanal-Tale of Ekati-Ready\'s Echo trifecta! If it comes in, dinners on me. Hell, if it comes in, you buy \'cause you\'ll have everyone\'s cash!
Seriously, TOE may run well, could even win if BB falls apart. But for me just the AWD data would not sway me one way or the other.
Mike-
As far as I can tell, the Equix concept is about trying to match phenotypes. That is, it is based on matching physical measurements of sires and dams. Since you are much more likely to have considerably more physical variation at the lower levels of the breeding industry, I do not doubt that applying some standardized practices to equine breeding would improve horses with poor pedrigrees. While Alm claims to have seen just this, it has nothing to do with sex-influenced genetic selection.
With the Maktooms, you only have to look at the extent of their breeding operations to see the understanding that they have of this game. It is purely a numbers game. They understand that it is the combination of ability on the background of genetic merit. And since it is very difficult to get a handle on genetic merit (at least until there are a lot of progeny racing), they are buying up the best racehorses, sending high quality mares to them, and letting them perform. And if they have a basis of many hundreds of the best racing animals,including access to the best mares, then they are able to maximize the chances of breeding the best racing animals.
The poker analogy is correct. Except that the Sheik and his brothers have the wherewithal to buy Big Slick on every deal.
Electro, you\'re welcome.
What other type of Belmont data would you like to see? And compared to what other types of races? (Maybe I can send it PTP so I don\'t tie up the board).
I can say with the BC Fillies on dirt at 9f, with the EXCEPTION of Ashado in \'04, I\'ve been fortunate to really hammer Round Pond and Pleasant Home, and just missed last year with Hystericalady using my \"silly\" little formula each time.
My experience has been the Dam\'s Sire AWD is very telling in the filly and mare races going an eighth or farther. That data I do have available. The same, however, doesn\'t hold true with male horses, and for unexplained reasons.
Having said that, and considering talk is cheap, I have managed for 4 straight years to pound the winner in the BC Flat Mile Turf races with Artie Schiller, Singletary, Miesque\'s Approval and Kip Deville. For some odd reasons, the numbers and other factors have played out well on those days.
As you say, multiple factors come in to play. The AWD is but a piece of the puzzle, and other factors come forward to complete it.
I get your point.
I am using the AWD on the dam side as 1 tool only. I would not even consider using the other 2 colts because they are not as fast and TOE has a much stronger pattern going in.
Good Luck,
Joe B.