Hi. Early this winter I started a project where the object was to create my own speed figures here in Norway where I live. It turned out to be a damn tough task, and with a lot of reading around(I have read many, many hours of old discussions on here) and studying books etc. (TGJB adviced me to read the winning horseplayer by Andy Beyer, cheers again for that it helped alot). Even though they are not even close to be good enough yet, I have started producing them and I used them for the first time yesterday(after 6 racing days so far this year, racing in Norway is every thursday starting late april and to November) and they seemed surprisingly good resulting in 4 out of 5 in the pick 5 but no cash =) . I\'m not gonna bother those of you that have read all the way down here with all the problems I have faced, but I can tell you that I have virtually no information like racing pars etc, but I have created my own(with a small sample so I will need to adjust them when I see how the ratings work out).
Anyway, this is 2 things I hoped any of you could help me with answering, or guiding me in the right direction of.
1) Weight value. I think I may have got the weight values wrong(how much a kilogram is worth in lengths) in the shorter and longer distances. The way I calculated them was very speculative, that has to be said. I used those that are explained in the thoro-form:
1 length over 6 furlongs = 1,8 kg(4lbs)
1 length over 8 furlongs = 1,35 kg(3lbs)
1 length over 12 furlongs = 0,9 kg(2lbs)
With those I simply made a graph, and tried to draw a logical line also for shorter and longer distance than 6 and 12 furlongs.
I came up with 5 and a half furlong = 1,98 kg, 4,5 furlong = 2,3 kg and 10 furlongs = 1,1 kg, 11 furlongs = 1 kg
Does these seems completely out of order? Specially 5 1/2 furlongs and 4 1/2 furlongs seems a bit high, but it might not be?
Also, are the weight values the same over dirt as on turf?
2) I found out that Thoro-Graph used 0,16 seconds per length, and that one path from the rail equals to 1 length. Is it then correct to assume that 1 path from the rail equals 0,16 seconds? (If a horse is 1 path from the rail throughout a 3-turn race that\'s 0,48 seconds following that logic). I have not began to include the paths in my ratings yet, other than that I count them in when handicapping the race( I have an excelsheet where I calculate how the horses stand for this race included todays weight etc., and I have an own column and formula to count in the paths). I have also adjusted every path to be worth a little less than 0,16 at dirt, while I use 0,16 per path over turf. After watching the races closely in 6 racingdays where most races has been over dirt, I think I have to readjust it back up to 0,16 before I start to use them when calculating the ratings(the problem is that I have to tape the races to see how wide they have been, because there is not any running lines, race replays or any info about how wide a horse has been available). It just seems to me that a path wide has just the same influence at dirt as on turf.
If anyone have bothered to read all the way down here, I appreciate it, and if anyone even wants to share their view or to give me some kind of answer I would appreciate it alot, and it would be a big help!
Best regards,
Dave Duggan(or Aksel as in real life)