Just said on Albany based OTB TV Network. They said there will be a press conference at Belmont Park around 11AM Sunday. They don\'t know if it will affect his starting in the Belmont.
If that is true.....
Its open season for a score.
Empire Maker, Spectacular Bid in the Derby all over again
Buddy Delp\'s talking got him in the end.
Dutrow\'s talking has been tempting the racing GOD\'s all along.
You know, it\'s one thing when you\'re the underdog, a la Joe Namath. When you have the fastest horse and you\'re saying the rest of the crop is sub-par.....that\'s just bad taste.
totally agree, that\'s why I have been rooting against him so hard.
I hope his arrogance causes him to run anyway.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> totally agree, that\'s why I have been rooting
> against him so hard.
>
> I hope his arrogance causes him to run anyway.
Yes, then maybe we can see another horrific breakdown on national TV.
:::sigh:::
Well, that\'s one grave dancer exposed. Anyone else?
That\'s pretty insulting.
I was not under the impression that horses broke down during a race because of quarter cracks. Thought it was more like they just slowed down, no?
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That\'s pretty insulting.
>
> I was not under the impression that horses broke
> down during a race because of quarter cracks.
> Thought it was more like they just slowed down,
> no?
It was meant to be insulting. It sounded like you had ill wishes for the horse, but now it seems that your comments are based strictly in ignorance of the implications of quarter cracks. I retract my \"grave dancer\" comment directed at you.
Quarter cracks come in all varieties, but depending on the severity, they can lead to bleeding, infection, lameness (foundering), and possible severe leg injuries if the entire hoof were to separate during a race.
I seriously doubt they will run him in the Belmont now. We\'ll see.
ok, since you want to play that way.
I believe you were in the camp that the Preakness was a Sunday walk in the park for Big Brown and in no way shape or form did that race (or the Derby) take anything out of the horse.
I believe you insulted me for thinking that the race was harder than it looked and that he was starting to show signs that the huge numbers were taking their toll.
Feel any differently now?
Is this confirmed? Is it a new crack? I haven\'t seen anything on wire.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ok, since you want to play that way.
>
> I believe you were in the camp that the Preakness
> was a Sunday walk in the park for Big Brown and in
> no way shape or form did that race (or the Derby)
> take anything out of the horse.
>
> I believe you insulted me for thinking that the
> race was harder than it looked and that he was
> starting to show signs that the huge numbers were
> taking their toll.
>
> Feel any differently now?
What on earth do you mean, since I want to \"play that way\"? You\'re the one who is unclear on the implications of quarter cracks. You also can barely contain your glee that something has gone wrong with the horse.
It\'s easy to suppose that Big Brown\'s recent races caused his latest quarter crack, but there is hardly ever any sort of direct line evidence as to just when a quarter crack is triggered. So, to answer your question, no, I don\'t \"feel any differently now\" -- a quarter crack doesn\'t prove or disprove squat.
Some horses have brittle feet. Some have conformation problems. Some develop quarter cracks without any particular \"event\" needed to trigger it.
But of course, if you knew any of this, you wouldn\'t be gloating right now. Or maybe you do, and you are just a grave dancer after all.
IF this is all true about the quarter crack, I am happy. I hope the horse is fine and races again down the road (doubtful I suppose if this is all true) but I don\'t want him running/winning the Belmont.
I have said all along that I don\'t think Dutrow deserves to win the triple crown. He has no class. The comment he made about Big Brown showing the Japanese Godzilla wasn\'t dead was a ridiculous and classless thing to say and was a culmination of a littany of such comments. It\'s stupid comments like that that contribute to Americans being the most hated people in the world. There\'s no place for stupidity like that in horse racing.
I want a triple crown winner more than anyone and rooted for War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Smarty more than anyone. However, I don\'t want Rick Dutrow representing the game I love to the casual racing fan.
Well? Its an hour and 38 minutes past the scheduled press conference. What\'s really going on?
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45398.htm
It\'s not a full blown quarter, the concern is about infection.Two days off, and going to Aqueduct to train, Belmont abrasive sandy loam not helping.
Big figs have ZERO to do with quarter cracks, you can pop them in light training.
mike
Fair enough then, thanks for the info.
I stand corrected and will shut up for the rest of the weekend.
Thanks
Only slightly related to this disturbing string is an article in Sunday\'s New
York Daily News which goes in depth about Richard \"Tricky\" Dutrow-- his
problems with drugs, his numerous suspensions, the violent death of the mother
of his daughter, his estrangement from his father.
In a short blurb in the Sunday New York Post, Ed Fountaine said Dutrow
Saturday \"laughed off\" a \"West coast based rumor that BB had popped a quarter
crack\".
If its true, and BB does not run, it only costs NYRA what, 80,000 spins of the turnstiles?
Cov,
You said nothing wrong. Ask your trainer.Horses prone to cracks can get them at any time. BB\'s was from jogging/galloping on friday under no pressure,sure he could get one from running neg figs also.
Mike
Bee,
Make no mistake, the anxiety level of the owners is to the moon, regardless of flippant Tricky.
Mike
It\'s stupid comments like that that contribute to Americans being the most hated people in the world.
Reality check pal. America is the free world and a giant melting pot.Given
the fact that Godzilla is fictional,I thought the joke was quite funny and in no
way bad taste.In addition to your handicapping skills your sense of humor is
lacking as well.BTW,the sport is called HORSERACING not trainerwithbesthorse.Most
horseracing fans probably don\'t give 2 $#@!% about dutrow winning or will years
down the road,but they would remember the glorious horse accomplishing a rare feat
in the face of tremendous adversity.
Emotions are running high as might be expected with a 30 year triple crown hiatus being threatened a potentially great horse trained by a trainer with a big mouth and who has a track record of having been caught cheating.
Covelj,
I know you already promised to shut up for the weekend, but that certainly isn\'t necessary. But you should realize that the horse not running doesn\'t prove a thing or make you right about anything. Last time I checked, this game involves gambling. For you to \"win\", he needs to run, and you beat him. Then you can come up on the board and talk about how you were one of the first and loudest to take an anti-Big Brown in the Belmont stance/position. And by the way, Dutrow may be a jerk, and I hate him as much as the next guy. But the godzilla comment is NOT classless. It is mildly witty, but certainly not classless. Nothing wrong with it. His overall arrogant, classless nature, is a different story.
Rick B,
Grave dancer is a bit harsh though, isn\'t it!!
Let\'s get the horse healthy and let him run. Then we can all see. Bounce, or no bounce. Triple Crown or not good enough, like the rest of them the past 30 years.
Nobody wins if he skips the belmont!
Miff--
What is interesting here is what amount of pressure NYRA will put on owners
and trainer to run this colt.
Richie,
Like you, don\'t want in on the heated string, but it would drastically reduce attendance.
The horse has bad feet period. The seperations were I think on the outside of both fronts and this newest crack is reported on the inside.
Could be nothing more than a simple sand crack or the damn thing could already be infected or abcessed for all we know.
Final final word from me (I promise)
I just talk to one of the leading horseman on the east coast. I asked him how much risk there was to running a horse with a quarter crack.
He said \"ABSOLUTELY NONE\" He said that running a horse with a quarter crack in now way increases the risk of a breakdown.
This is what I had been previously told about quarter cracks which I why I made the original post so Rick B, I think your criticism was a bit misplaced but no big deal.
Jimbo, you are absoultely right in your post.
Rick B. Truce and let\'s enjoy a great weekend, lots of good action today.
Bee,
What you will not hear is that the risk assessor of the insurance company will have some say, they will not pay under certain clauses if this horse races with a pre existing condition and breaks down.
Won\'t say more than if infection sets in, you will never see BB on the track again. The next 42-72 hours will determine if he ever runs again.You gotta be a moron not to root for this horse to get to the race even if you\'re tossing him.
Mike
Cov,
Correct, but bar shoes and aluminum pads are a DISASTER.
Mike
The funny thing is that if he misses a few days of training but still runs, some people that formerly wouldn\'t have been willing to take a stand against him, might now. If he loses, then we can have a two year debate about whether he lost because he bounced or because he missed some training leading up to a 12F race and whether the timing of the quarter crack was a fluke or related to his tough efforts. ;-)
Thanks for the heads-up.
Fkach,
He will miss several days, but the problem is more complicated. As of this morning,BB is a handful not having gone out to the track sat or sunday and is dragging people around shed row. Tricky bringing in reinforcements to deal with BB\'s power/enthusiasm.How do you do that for 3 more days is beyond me.This horse is anything but acting hurt right now.
Mike
Miff,
According to Dutrow qoute in that Bloodhorse article:
It won\'t hurt to miss a few days. Tuesday before the Belmont would be perfect and even Wednesday would be good.
Thats almost two weeks...
Rose,
Don\'t know about that, he must have been speaking about a workout/blowout.Leaving him in the barn for 10 days without training his lungs is unheard of,imo.
Mike
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick B. Truce and let\'s enjoy a great weekend,
> lots of good action today.
Yes, truce. You cleared it up nicely when you explained your position on Dutrow, which I have no problem with at all. I erroneously perceived a rip on BB, who obviously can\'t pick his connections, and that will always bring out my \"South Side\" (Chicago expression meaning \"bad temper\").
I apologize. Let\'s go get some at the windows today.
He missed Saturday and today and they are talking about not galloping again until Thursday. That\'s 5 days of missed gallops as a best case scenario. I\'m not an expert on race horse conditioning but I\'ve seen many horses over the years run sub par races when they\'ve \"just missed a few days of training\" etc.. leading up to a big race. IMO the probability of this horse running his \"A\" race in the Belmont are much lower as a result of this. IMO, the low level probability of a physical bounce is a total non event compared to missing 5 days and trying to run 12F for the first time against a potentially serious rival that\'s probably bred to peak at that distance.
Halo Fire Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You know, it\'s one thing when you\'re the underdog,
> a la Joe Namath. When you have the fastest horse
> and you\'re saying the rest of the crop is
> sub-par.....that\'s just bad taste.
You must have hated Ali.
Mr. Dub,
The short answer to your question is: I\'m too young for Ali (I\'m 37). It\'s interesting that you bring up a boxing analogy, though. I happen to be a huge Floyd Mayweather Jr. fan. He\'s the most talented fighter I\'ve ever seen and he CAN\'T STOP talking.
The issue I have with Dutrow is pretty simple. If BB wins, is he a worthy ambassador for our beautifull sport? Is he going to be the \"new face\" of racing in the modern era? Let\'s face it, if BB wins, for the next 30+ years an outside media source will want an interview with Dutrow every time they do a triple crown piece. Does anyone think steroids will be brought up? Will BB be the \"Barry Bonds\" triple crown winner who ran against bums?
He says this year\'s crop of three-year-olds are less than stellar (which undermines his own horse\'s accomplishment\'s). Are they or are they just \"clean\"?
I\'m too young so I ask you, did Lucen Lauren or Billy Turner speak like this? I know Laz didn\'t speak subversive about Alydar.
Halo, it\'s said that Secretariat was on plenty of Equipoise. Sir Barton was supposedly a horse created and sustained by drugs. More recently, milkshaking was legal, no limits on bute, no testing for other drugs, etc.
When people pine for \"the good old days\", and think that horses used to be \"sturdier\" ... well, it\'s all relative, and I think it\'s good the horses are now, at least, being treated by 20th century medicine, and hopefully 21st century for the more forward-thinking trainers.
And most of the drug abuse from decades past is waning.
Drug abuse is less than it\'s ever been in racehorses right now. THIS is the cleanest age in the sport.
More to do? Sure, plenty. But look at what\'s been eliminated.
Brown ran with a quarter crack in the Derby and Preakness:http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,42686,42714#msg-42714
It\'s not clear from Haskin\'s piece, which does nothing more than parrot what Dutrow said, if this is a new quarter crack and/or there\'s been some problem with the acrylic patches Brown wore in both races.
Brown was severely run down after the Preakness, so much so that on both of his rear legs Brown bled through the patch under the vet wrap, the vet wrap, and the patch outside the vet wrap. However, Dutrow didn\'t mention it during the news conference, and heaven forbid that one of the equine \"journalists\" who attended might ask him an actual question, so I guess it\'s not news.
I can\'t speak to Sir Barton. But I can speak to the time when I\'ve been making figures (early 80s on). The last decade, and especially 2001 on, is BY FAR the worst it has been during that time in terms of number of trainers using performance enhancers, and amount they are moving the horses up. Any sophisticated (pro) handicapper will tell you the same thing. We can tell by the way large groups of horses trained by certain individuals all improve dramatically in terms of TG figures at the same time, or upon going to that trainer (with statistically significant samplings). I\'m not talking about winning percentages-- I\'m talking about using something far more sophisticated to measure performance, sophisticated enough that the powers-that-be in one major jurisdiction have asked me to tip them off when it looks like someone is doing something.
We are talking about 15-20 trainers at major tracks nationally instantly improving horses 4-6 points, or 6-10 lengths at a mile.
I might get some fire after this, but I like Dutrow. In the sense he\'s genuine. Doesn\'t pretend to be anything than what he is. Which turns out to be what people dislike. In the season of fake smiles, scripted answers, and baby kissing, he is authentic. What ya see is what ya get, which is refreshing, at least to me. I\'m a Mayweather fan as well, but know plenty that can\'t stand the guy. He\'s a personality, just as Dutrow is and sometimes what makes sports, all sports so intriguing is not only the ones you love to root for, but the ones you love to root against. I\'m glad that he\'s not just another stale suit with the same statements from the trainers handbook on interviews.
Here is an article on the \"run down\" problems http://hoofcare.blogspot.com/2008/05/big-brown-arrives-at-belmont-with-run.html
Mall Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Brown ran with a quarter crack in the Derby and
> Preakness:http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.ph
> p?1,42686,42714#msg-42714
>
> It\'s not clear from Haskin\'s piece, which does
> nothing more than parrot what Dutrow said, if this
> is a new quarter crack and/or there\'s been some
> problem with the acrylic patches Brown wore in
> both races.
>
> Brown was severely run down after the Preakness,
> so much so that on both of his rear legs Brown
> bled through the patch under the vet wrap, the vet
> wrap, and the patch outside the vet wrap. However,
> Dutrow didn\'t mention it during the news
> conference, and heaven forbid that one of the
> equine \"journalists\" who attended might ask him an
> actual question, so I guess it\'s not news.
Wouldn\'t the stallion deal have fallen through, or at the very least be put on hold, if this was truely the case, especially considering the run down remarks following the Preakness?
How many of those trainers are turning up with drug positives?
The NYRA would indeed kinda seem like the Mayor of Amityville in the movie Jaws in this sense. \"Brownie will run - we\'re only talking a 5/8ths inch little crack...AND...those beaches will be open on the 4th of July! As you know...Amityville means friendship!\"
LOL
ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I might get some fire after this, but I like
> Dutrow. In the sense he\'s genuine. Doesn\'t
> pretend to be anything than what he is. Which
> turns out to be what people dislike. In the
> season of fake smiles, scripted answers, and baby
> kissing, he is authentic. What ya see is what ya
> get, which is refreshing, at least to me. I\'m a
> Mayweather fan as well, but know plenty that can\'t
> stand the guy. He\'s a personality, just as Dutrow
> is and sometimes what makes sports, all sports so
> intriguing is not only the ones you love to root
> for, but the ones you love to root against. I\'m
> glad that he\'s not just another stale suit with
> the same statements from the trainers handbook on
> interviews.
This is interesting. I, too, admit to being charmed by Dutrow and his personality which I find positive, refreshing, and charismatic. The conundrum is to reconcile that very positive image with two very negative potential things that, if proven, are deplorable -- those being that he may cheat to move horses up and he might lie to deceive the public or others who in good faith rely on his comments.
To steal a device from TGJB, we are only looking at one side of the house when we say how much we like Dutrow. While that side that we see may look great, we honestly cannot see the other sides of the house. In this case, the difference may be even more stark, but we do not truly know.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Emotions are running high as might be expected
> with a 30 year triple crown hiatus being
> threatened a potentially great horse trained by a
> trainer with a big mouth and who has a track
> record of having been caught cheating.
>
> Covelj,
>
> I know you already promised to shut up for the
> weekend, but that certainly isn\'t necessary. But
> you should realize that the horse not running
> doesn\'t prove a thing or make you right about
> anything. Last time I checked, this game involves
> gambling. For you to \"win\", he needs to run, and
> you beat him. Then you can come up on the board
> and talk about how you were one of the first and
> loudest to take an anti-Big Brown in the Belmont
> stance/position. And by the way, Dutrow may be a
> jerk, and I hate him as much as the next guy. But
> the godzilla comment is NOT classless. It is
> mildly witty, but certainly not classless.
> Nothing wrong with it. His overall arrogant,
> classless nature, is a different story.
>
> Rick B,
>
> Grave dancer is a bit harsh though, isn\'t it!!
>
> Let\'s get the horse healthy and let him run. Then
> we can all see. Bounce, or no bounce. Triple
> Crown or not good enough, like the rest of them
> the past 30 years.
>
> Nobody wins if he skips the belmont!
Good Post, Jimbo!!
I think we all know that there is only one grave dancer on this board -- it is the same guy who shed no tears when Barbaro went down and has been openly rooting for Dennis of Cork to die on the track.
There used to be a different guy who ended his posts either here or on Ragozin\'s board (or maybe both) with the sign off -- \"May they all come home safely\" or \"Bring them all home safely\" or words to that effect. I would think that this is something we can all agree on no matter what our pecuniary interests are. As far as I can tell, there are only two entities rooting for horses to die on track -- PETA and the only true grave dancer on this board.
In the spirit of trying to help us all keep perspective,
May the all come home safely,
SCM2
i guess the message is when you think you have been cheated by a jockey/trainer, you can only hope for them to pay the consequences.horses break down-jockeys die.trainers lose clients, and so on..........
Sight-- oh, I see. If they don\'t get a positive, we don\'t have a problem.
You know, we could stop testing altogether, and by your logic completely eliminate the whole issue.
I\'ve been trying to figure out what the hell your position is. I think I have it now. If only baseball, track and cycling had you to advise them, they wouldn\'t have all these silly problems!
CoveLJ70,
My approach to you was reprehensible at best and I apologize.I too want purity
and sportmanship in this GREAT sport and I spoke unwittingly in my haste.
Please forgive.
Sincerely
TGJB,
I respect your making mention of my ill-mouthed remarks.My apologies to you
and the forum members.I will always contend with the remarks of the
Essence regarding handicapping.\"bet em fast,you can\'t last,bet em slow,you gotta
go\".Regarding Professional Handicappers:Even the sharpest lose most of the time.
I ask you to discontinue my access of this forum.
Respectfully
Very good, Uncle.
Here is the way I am looking at this colt and his quarter crack.
Lets say that BB is not looking to sweep the Triple Crown.
Lets say that BB is a very talented 3YO who has had foot problems and is 2 weeks
away from running in a race that is not a Triple Crown race, that is not the
Travers, that is not the BC Classic.
Let say that BB is two weeks away from the Peter Pan or the Jim Dandy or the
Ohio Derby or the Met Mile or some other graded race, and that he has raced
twice in the last month, and that he comes up with the identical quarter crack.
I\'d say Dutrow, a \"spacing\" trainer, gives the colt described in the
hypothetical above whatever time it takes for the hoof to heal completely, not
to mention to recover from the two races in the last month. Dutrow is now
\"playing against type\" as they might say in the entertainment biz, finding
himself in a spot where taking the necessary time is not an option.
Dutrow has covered all bases thus far, including leaving BB at Palm Meadows for
as long as possible, citing the fact that his tender-hooved colt did not have
to travel over asphalt to get back and forth from the track. Dutrow now faces
decisions predicated on his colt\'s physical condition-- how long to keep him
off the track, and what to do with him once he goes back to training.
The pitcher in TGJB\'s hypothetical has popped a blister before game 3. (1969
Mets pitching coach Rube Walker would be dipping the blister in pickle brine).
BB apparently back on the track this morning (jogging). Must be okay.
espn.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/news/story?id=3413650)
Do we have any trainers or conditioning experts here than can comment on Dutrow\'s view that missing a few days of galloping is NOT going to impact this horse\'s conditioning?
I have seen numerous high level horses that just missed a few days heading into a major race that ran very subpar races right after that. Of course, some of those were for other reasons (fevers, more severe physical issues etc...)
Any inactivity/deviation from a noraml training schedule for three days is a knock, regardless of what Tricky says. It may turn out to be nothing, but to rush this horse back on a wet track this morning speaks volumes to me.
Mike
miff,
I agree.
It\'s probably the right thing to do to get him back out there quickly. If the hoof doesn\'t hold up 100%, so be it. He\'s out of the Belmont and then you fix it the right way. But if you are going to run, you want him as close to 100% as possible. If you are going to baby him at this point and potentially cost him the race because of conditioning, why not just sit out and fix it right.
Mike, I was going to ask about that.
Doesn\'t the wet track aggravate ouchy feet? That\'s what I\'ve always been told.
My read on this was that he was starting to get worried that the horse was losing some of his conditioning so he moved up his planned return to the track by a day or so even with the questionable track conditions.
The weather forecast for the next few days is terrific here in NYC which makes it all the more curious as to why he would rush it. Also, the hoof expert didn\'t even see the horse this AM so it wasn\'t like Dutrow got the all clear from him for the horse to go back to the track.
I understand that Dutrow is saying none of this means anything but I find that hard to believe based on my experience with my own horses and trainers. If we miss a few days of training (for whatever reason) we almost always have to skip the race. I understand these guys aren\'t going to skip the race but I don\'t think this missed training time bodes well.
I also agree with fkach that IF the horse doesn\'t win, we will never know if it was because of the missed training time or if he was going in the wrong direction anyway but for anyone who was leaning in the direction of the latter, the former certainly only adds to the conviction level that he is at great risk of getting beat.
Seems like Tale of Ekati isn\'t exactly thriving and I agree upon further video tape watching that he hung in the Derby so the distance is more of a question mark for him but Dennis of Cork seems to be doing well, he came into the derby off of 1 race in 7 weeks so he has every right to improve off of that race and he has a competitive number to run back to so he seems very live next Sat. Obviously Casino Drive is fast and has a good last number but with the obvious foundation question marks.
Dennis of Cork starting to look like the play to me.
The other issue is that this normally laid back animal was too aggressive the last few days and that worried the connections.Trainers are loathe to take a horse out of it\'s normal routine and BB was for 3 days, not to mention the possible loss of some of his normal lung power from the downtime.
Mike
Covel:
According to the DRF Derby chart, TOE was steadied in the first quarter when in
tight, drifted out, reserved along the inside, and came six wide into the
stretch...some might say that TOE has already been the Belmont 1-1/2 mile
distance. A true \"Clockwork Orange\" trip...the old in and out.
The slow work is concerning though, with Coa apparently saying he could not get
TOE on the proper lead. So now TOE has had 2 Belmont preps-- a quick half mile
where he basically ran off with a 100 pound exercise girl and a glacial 6
furlongs in almost 1:19.
With all the talk of Casino Drive\'s dam Better Than Honour, it should be
mentioned that TOE traces back through his second dam, Maplejinsky, to the great
race filly/broodmare Gold Beauty, champion sprinter of 1982 as a 3YO.
This is a pedigree loaded with major stakes winners and champions on the dam\'s
side, including champion Sky Beauty, BC Distaff winner Pleasant Home, and stakes
winners Country Hideaway and Pine Island.
Cov,
If Tricky swore on a stack of bibles that this means nothing,I wouldn\'t buy it. Just what it means will be seen on Belmont day if BB gets there.It may also be that he is concerned that the sharks smell blood in the water, by that I mean he may fear that the field size will swell because trainers see BB as more vulnerable now.Pure speculation on my part.
The horrible work by TOE could make him questionable as is Behindathebar as Pletcher not being forthcoming on Belmont status.DOC is a light framed horse which is also why the connections chose his spacing to the ILL derby, don\'t know what if anything that means for the grueling Belmont surface lately and the distance. Hope NYRA pays it\'s water bill as I have noticed Big Sandy swallow two very fast speeds in the last two days( Dream Rush and Commentator, note the last eighth and final raw time, both races)
If I were bucking BB, as you and several others here are, I would swing harder.
Mike
Richiebee,
Tale of Ekati got a good trip in the Derby. Inside out is a good trip. Not as good as 1w/1w, but nonetheless, as somebody who bet quite a bit of money on Tale of Ekati in the Derby, I have zero problem with the trip he got. His \"trouble\" early in the race wasn\'t much. He got off the rail approaching the far turn when Big Brown made his move, basically following Big Brown. An excellent decision IMO by Coa. If his horse was good enough, he would have kept on going. Follow the horse you think you have to beat.
He hung in the stretch. Don\'t think he wants 1 1/4, certainly don\'t think he wants 1 1/2.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> There used to be a different guy who ended his
> posts either here or on Ragozin\'s board (or maybe
> both) with the sign off -- \"May they all come home
> safely\"
SCM2- That was BDHSeets. He was a friend of mine. Great guy! \'Sheets passed away- much too young -on to that great pasture in the sky a couple years ago now. But that was he that signed off \"May they all come home safely\" FWIW, I\'ve little doubt that in his afterlife, he sits on the Racing Gods\' Board of Directors. ;-)
>> Sight-- oh, I see. If they don\'t get a positive, we don\'t have a problem.
?? Not at all. We currently test for many, many drugs.
If trainers - especially \"the ones\" on your list that you are convinced are cheating via their performance compared to their brethen - are not coming up positive to the many we currently test for (including EPO) that leaves only the unapproved, the unknown, the designer, the special (using cobra venom as a nerve block instead of a -caine drug that tests, for example).
Yes, we have to continue to pursue developing tests for those unknowns asap. Those drugs are out there. One things trainers have proven is that they are not all smart, and some of these morons are willing to put anything into a horse.
I think testing of current winners should be expanded and more regular and thorough (not shotgunned as it is currently in some jurisdictions)
>> You know, we could stop testing altogether, and by your logic completely eliminate the whole issue.
Nonsense. That\'s not what I think at all, and I\'ve never implied it in the least.
>> I\'ve been trying to figure out what the hell your position is.
I\'ve stated my position clearly on this board several times before: I\'m against use of any illegal drug in the racehorse, and all the drugs we use now (for example, the legal steroids, bute, etc.) should be testable and controlled so there is no possible raceday performance influence.
Here\'s where I differ from many on this board, and nearly all lay people: I do not think \"drugs - to use or not\" is the black or white issue many do. Probably because I know what different drugs actually do to a horse.
I realize, from experience, that many of the things some people worry about (Winstrol, some dietary milkshaking, lasix hiding other drugs, etc) really do not do much of anything to affect performance. Certainly no where near what the general public fears.
For example, \"steroids\" as used by Barry Bonds is no where near, by any stretch of pharmacologic reality, Dick Dutrow giving a shot of Winstrol once a month.
But do I think the legal steroids should be given to horses automatically once a month? Hell, no. Do I think Dutrow is giving his horses an advantage over the guy who doesn\'t do that? Not really, unless he\'s using massive off-label doses, or doing that instead of giving a horse some spacing.
It\'s not black and white. These are elite athletes, running on the edge of their physiology and metabolism, and they won\'t run very well on hay, oats, water and turnout.
Should they run on steroids? Hell no. Should they run on lasix? Yes, but I wouldn\'t get upset with no. Should they run on nerve blocks? Absolutely not. Should they run with recently injected joints? No. Should they run with a small amount of bute in their system (too small to do anything about pain, enough to stop inflammation) Yes (but again, if it\'s no, no big deal)
Should we allow the use of steroids, nerve blocks, injecting joints, bute? Yes. Of course. Elite athletes need drugs to keep them healthy - you can\'t deny them drugs that medically help them be racehorses, to deal with what we ask them to do. Just not where it would influence race day.
Few days, no problem.
Sight-- \"I realize, from experience, that some of the things that people worry about (Winstrol, some dietary milkshaking, lasix hiding other drugs etc.) do not do much of anything to affect performance\".
Really.
1-- How do you know that, exactly? How are you measuring performance? And how can you tell which things are the ones moving up horses when they do jump, measurably?
2-- Weren\'t you the one that originally posted Rick Arthur\'s study, showing the effects of TCO2 levels BELOW the threshold for a positive, on finish position?
3-- How do you know that Dutrow is only giving Winstrol once a month? Because he says so?
4-- How do you feel about raceday Clenbuterol? Right now the only place testing for that is California. When they started doing that a few months ago, and cracking down on milkshakes, certain trainers\' winning percentages went down almost 50%.
I agree with much of the rest of what you wrote. But I\'m also among a group of people in the industry that recognizes that current testing is not even putting a dent in the problem, and is taking steps to try to change things. It is like trying to turn around an aircraft carrier-- and having people minimize the issue by saying \"no positive, no problem\" does not help.
By the way, VERY few states are doing EPO testing, unless something has changed in the last few weeks. It\'s expensive, and they don\'t want to spend money.
Some comments:
Yeah. Really.
I didn\'t say, \"No positive, no problem\".
I cannot adopt your \"all or nothing\" extreme position on this issue, and although you seem eager, I do not care to argue it with you.
In response to my saying that some trainers were moving up horses, what you said was, \"How many of those trainers are ending up with drug positives\"?
I assume the answer was zero, which leaves the illegal, currently undetectable stuff.
We agree, detection of that has to be pursued.
Not to continue this any more than it needs, but it also means lowering the acceptable TCO2 levels (while using the NYRA quarantine method of protecting trainers), doing what California does about Clenbuterol and other broncho-dilators, spending the money for EPO testing, freezing samples, and taking a hard look at steroids. The issue is as much about making the right rules and enforcement as it is about testing.
If I remember, Did\'nt Risen Star win the Belmont by 11 lengths racing with a quarter crack?
sightsound,
Thanks for the input. Your presence here is a major plus.
Thanks, but I didn\'t think the feet would make it to the Preakness. Shows what I know ...
I never met bdhsheets (he liked the lower-case, as I recall),but he was a great poster here for many years. We would be remiss to not recall that he gave out Volponi as his key about a week before they ran the Classic that year - perhaps the best, all-time pick by a poster on this board for a big race.
we should hearing more news very soon on the quarter and over-all condition after todays mile and a half jog . wasn\'t he given a light training schedule prior to the preakness while keeping within his normal demeanor during that same period of time ? i wonder if accounts are true that report a departure from bb\'s normal laid back self to more aggressive behavior - i know spring is in the air and the weather finally got good - however ...
\"Not to continue this any more than it needs, but it also means lowering the acceptable TCO2 levels (while using the NYRA quarantine method of protecting trainers), doing what California does about Clenbuterol and other broncho-dilators, spending the money for EPO testing, freezing samples, and taking a hard look at steroids. The issue is as much about making the right rules and enforcement as it is about testing.\"
JB,
Re \"using the NYRA quarantine method of protecting trainers\" Do you mean protecting the trainer from someone sabatoging their horse?
If you meant that the detention barn thing is working to thwart cheating,it\'s not evident in the results that the usual suspects are now getting in comparison to results pre-detention barn days.
You may be aware that there is strong sentiment amongst many very legit/cold racing outfits to discontinue the detention barn system and NYRA is looking at it.It\'s expensive to small outfits and a fair amount of runners are leaving their race in the detention barn.
Mike
"Obviously we're being cautious, but he is right on track," McKinlay said. "He is not quick healer, as he has shown with his other injuries.
Miff-- I mean neither. NYRA is the only one with a system where trainers can appeal a TCO2 positive by having their horse quarantined by NYRA and retested a day (?) later. If the horse is still at the high level, it is a naturally recurring phenomenom specific to that horse. If the number goes down, the horse was given an alkalizing agent, and the trainer gets a positive.
The problem, as I have stated before, is that the level for a positive is artificially high (37, maybe even 39 in NY), so only one horse has been retested, to my knowledge. If you bring the threshold level down to 34 with the same system in place and serious sanctions, you will have something that works.
>> The problem, as I have stated before, is that the level for a positive is artificially high (37, maybe even 39 in NY),
That the level is \"artificially high\" is your own opinion.
It is not an opinion shared by the majority of the veterinary community (we do examine TCO2 levels in horses outside of racing, you know)
There is at least 20 years of TCO2 information on the internet from various racing jurisdictions, including Standardbred racing.
In many jurisdictions the level used to be lower, but has subsequently been raised to the current level in favor of accuracy.
The NYRA positive level for TCO2 is 37 mm/L for horses. If the horse gets lasix it is 39mm/L.
Notice that there is 2mm difference in the above? That is how easily TCO2 levels can be influenced.
>> If you bring the threshold level down to 34 with the same system in place and serious sanctions, you will have something that works
A level of 34 is absurdly low, in my opinion. It would do nothing but give false positive after false positive.
I suggest that interest parties google TCO2 and see the long history behind establishing acceptable levels for this test in various racing jurisdictions. This test is old, old, old, and the downsides are well-known and well-documented.
This is why the levels are set where they are today. A couple decades of experience.
Yeah, it\'s not like I\'ve talked extensively to Rick Arthur (probably number one in the field, having looked at the tests of thousands of racehorses, and treated almost as many himself as a practicing vet), or seen his studies. (As have you, I would add).
With the quarantine system you can duplicate lasix and other things that legally can affect CO2 levels, so that is a non-issue. If it is a \"false positive\", you will get it again, and the trainer will be off the hook.
I had an extra minute so I took a look. The first thing the search showed is from Australia, where they don\'t use lasix. It said average was 30.77, and that the odds of a horse showing over 36 without help is 600,000 to one.