I ordered up the TG sheet and he got a O with an \"off poorly\" notation.
Thanks JB for agreeing to let me share the number with the board.
In addition to the number itself, the other thing that is interesting is that Casinio Drive\'s \"0\" in his second race is nearly as fast as Jazil ever ran (best being a 0.5 negative). Rags to Riches best was her 1.5 negative. I believe both of these lifetime best figures came in the Belmont (could be wrong about that).
He\'s lightly raced but he is very fast and, as everyone is well aware, has the best breeding for the race.
If we took the names off the sheets and looked at:
1) A horse that was 4-1 with a 0 in his last race with phenomenal breeding for the distance coming into the race fresh, and
2) A horse that was 1-5 coming off a 2 negative (guess) which would represent a signifcant regression from his prior 2 races and running his 3rd race in 5 weeks with breeding that isn\'t that hot for 1 1/2 mile,
We would all be going against horse number 2 90% of the time.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If we took the names off the sheets and looked
> at:
>
> 1) A horse that was 4-1 with a 0 in his last race
> with phenomenal breeding for the distance coming
> into the race fresh, and
>
> 2) A horse that was 1-5 coming off a 2 negative
> (guess) which would represent a signifcant
> regression from his prior 2 races and running his
> 3rd race in 5 weeks with breeding that isn\'t that
> hot for 1 1/2 mile,
>
> We would all be going against horse number 2 90%
> of the time.
Abso-friggin-lutely...
Thanks for the number..
Yep, we would. This is going to be one of the times where I go with the 10% play, though.
Does the same apply if horse one will be having his second race off a quarantine (if, as Dutrow suggests, such horses regress the 2nd time out)?
This is interesting. I have asked some other horseman I know about this and the suggestion has come back that many European horses run big first off the plane because they are getting Lasix for the first time and that\'s a big one-time boost for them which is consistent with Dutrow\'s comments.
I can\'t recall if Casino Drive ran on Lasix in Japan and/or in the Peter Pan, anyone remember?
AJ,
Thats too funny that Tricky would say such a thing.Tricky drinks a different brand of Kool Aid and would not have an original thought on such matters.
Mike
Shows no lasix in Japan or the Peter Pan.
interesting, so then I don\'t think the \"one time pop\" that Dutrow referred to as the norm for \"horses off the plane\" is too relevant here even if that is true in the first place.
Curlin came out firing 0\'s and never looked back, maybe this guy is the same deal.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> I can\'t recall if Casino Drive ran on Lasix in
> Japan and/or in the Peter Pan, anyone remember?
No Lasix in the Peter Pan for Casino Drive nor his mate Spark Candle.
Better hope it\'s not the same deal.Another zero will probably get him beat.
The DRF said no lasix, but is everything that\'s published in the DRF gospel? Maybe they didn\'t report lasix but used it anyway?
I\'d love to know for sure if he\'s been treated with lasix and not just blindly accept what i read in the Drf.
That\'s an interesting question. Years ago a real lot of the European turf horses would bounce badly in their second race in the U.S.
My feeling was that the first US start was probably the result of the efforts of the European trainer. But since some of them changed trainers after their first try in the U.S., perhaps the change in training methods was having a negative impact. It was at least a reasonable theory. LOL
In any event, I think those horses do a lot better now than they did years ago. I don\'t track it statistically, but I used to look to play against some of them. I see no compelling reason to do so these days.
Duh
No we wouldn\'t be going against the number. Don\'t get silly.
We would be factoring the odds.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> I ordered up the TG sheet and he got a O with an
> \"off poorly\" notation.
>
> Thanks JB for agreeing to let me share the number
> with the board.
>
> In addition to the number itself, the other thing
> that is interesting is that Casinio Drive\'s \"0\" in
> his second race is nearly as fast as Jazil ever
> ran (best being a 0.5 negative). Rags to Riches
> best was her 1.5 negative. I believe both of
> these lifetime best figures came in the Belmont
> (could be wrong about that).
>
> He\'s lightly raced but he is very fast and, as
> everyone is well aware, has the best breeding for
> the race.
>
> If we took the names off the sheets and looked
> at:
>
> 1) A horse that was 4-1 with a 0 in his last race
> with phenomenal breeding for the distance coming
> into the race fresh, and
>
> 2) A horse that was 1-5 coming off a 2 negative
> (guess) which would represent a signifcant
> regression from his prior 2 races and running his
> 3rd race in 5 weeks with breeding that isn\'t that
> hot for 1 1/2 mile,
>
> We would all be going against horse number 2 90%
> of the time.
The odds were part of the equation.
While I don\'t necessarily disagree with your overall premise, I wish people would quit falsely bashing his pedigree and his ability to get classic distances. Whether or not you put any stock at all in dosage theory, the fact remains that he has 24 points in the classic category. This means he has tons of classic distance ability from all over his pedigree. This is 10 more points than any other horse who has taken part in any of the triple crown races, save Adriano.
If you want to take the narrow-minded view of only looking directly at his sire, that\'s your mistake. His pedigree is fine and will easily be the best in the Belmont field. Now if you want to play against him based on his race figures, that\'s a whole different story altogether. I\'ll be on the fence until I see all the figures and soak everything in, but if I do play against him, it certainly won\'t be because of his pedigree or ability to get 1.5 miles.
Tread,
you say \"His pedigree is fine and will easily be the best in the Belmont field.\"
Do you honestly believe that Big Brown is bred better than Casino Drive? I hate to even ask this but do you know who Casino Drive\'s siblings are?
BTW, I think it\'s pretty obvious that I am looking at the bottom side, including 2nd and 3rd dam to make the statements about TOE and DOC.
BIG BROWN BOUNDARY 7.68 7.58 11.8 NORTHERN DANCER NUREYEV 8.47 8.34 8.8 NORTHERN DANCER P/P 4 - 7 - 23 - 2 - 0 1.67 0.36 DESORMEAUX DUTROW JR. IEAH STABLES & POMPA JR.
CASINO DRIVE MINESHAFT 8.50 * 8.50 * 0.0 BOLD RULER DEPUTY MINISTER 8.44 8.28 8.7 NORTHERN DANCER P/P 10 - 6 - 12 - 0 - 0 3.67 0.93 TAKE YAMAMOTO FUJISAWA
Yes, I\'m aware of who Casino Drive\'s siblings are. He is a very nicely bred colt, especially for the 8-9 furlong range. But for classic distances, Big Brown seems to have a clearly superior pedigree on paper.
And if you truly were looking at dam families, as you claim, you would not discount BB\'s ability to get 1.5 miles.
I don\'t claim by any stretch that Big Brown can\'t get 1 1/2, just that Casino Drive is better bred for it.
I posted a few weeks ago that the scariest thing about BB is that he\'s better bred for the turf than the dirt due to that bottom-side.
That really is scary if he\'s doing what he\'s doing on what is not his best surfact....yikes!
My apologies, I guess I mis-interpreted this comment in your original post
\"with breeding that isn\'t that hot for 1 1/2 mile,\"
totally fair, should have been more specific that it was a relevent not and absolute comment, my bad.
covelj70,
Answer this for me, if Casino Drive was going into the derby under the same circumstances would you bet him. Maiden with great breeding flies over has one prep race, earns big number and is now all set for a 1 1/4. You would toss him! But now instead of 1 1/4 he is being asked to go 1 1/2 !?! He will take plenty of money in the exotics and I think the play here is to toss him
I don\'t care how many Belmont winners in a row the mare pushed out, it is asking a lot of this horse at a very very short price. And to my eye, his Peter Pan was not all that impressive. He got a perfect trip and Kent had to really work to get him going, giving him three big cracks of the whip in mid stretch. Not for me.
ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> covelj70,
>
>
>
> I don\'t care how many Belmont winners in a row the
> mare pushed out, it is asking a lot of this horse
> at a very very short price. And to my eye, his
> Peter Pan was not all that impressive. He got a
> perfect trip and Kent had to really work to get
> him going, giving him three big cracks of the whip
> in mid stretch. Not for me.
One of the biggest thing about that race though is that he was not anywhere near fully cranked..I wish we knew just how much he was cranked so I could get a feel but if he was 70 % , would it not be possible for him to run a neg 2 in this one?
Or a 10.
How many times have you heard \"he wasn\'t fully cranked\" or \"He needed that one\" and the horse was up the track next out? Sure he can fire a neg 2, but I wouldn\'t be willing to bet on it. I\'ve seen too many shippers fire their best shot off the plane and end up out of the money next start. And those horses were not going 1 1/2 miles facing stiffer competition after blowing their load first time in this country, while working off of a two race foundation. In fact, most were turfers, who tend to bounce less, and were handled by guys with the \"magic touch\" BB thorpattern on the other hand reads:
........................................................................................................StsTop%Pair%Off% X%
Dirt 3yo Apr-Jun: Prev Top 1, Top-Top-Off (-3.5, -4.75, -1) 100...13....30....27....30
That\'s 70% that all others need a new top to beat him and without doing the research, I would guess, like the derby, not many tops are earned in the Belmont.
No one has mentoned that Casino Drive was reportedly undertrained, short, not so sharp, did not race in three months, and fired a zero off no foundation. He\'s not supposed to bounce to the moon?
Mike
You say Casino Drive is \"nicely bred for 8-9 furlongs.\"
Do you really think he can get that far?
The more I think about it, the more I think it is a little arrogant on their part to send over a maiden to try to capture one of the crown jewels. I have a great deal of respect for Japan breeding and racing, but c\'mon! It\'s not like they\'re sending over someone as accomplished as Cesario, who captured the American Oaks in \'05 or Dance in the Mood, who just missed in the Oaks in \'04. By the way, that victory by Cesario was the first by a Japan-bred and Japan-raced horse in almost a half-century.
Haven\'t we seen this before. I do not remember it ever working in the triple crown. Arazi comes to mind, but he was a superstar in Europe already. I searched the archives looking for a horse with two or three races looking to test a 1 1/2 or 1 1/4. Doesn\'t exist. Not even Lukas or Zito have tried such a thing and they lived for the triple crown. What am I missing??? He won a maiden by open lengths, ran a zed off the plane against second and third tier 3 yr olds and now he\'s 9/2 going a mile and a half. Nope, not gonna happen
...Big Brown wins it for America!!!
No we\'ve never seen this before. Never. The story is the dam. And it\'s a pretty iffy proposition. But when has a dam ever dropped three Belmont winners in a row, much less two, or two period. Never, ever. The owners, connections don\'t have to do this. They don\'t have to try. But they are because it\'s a such unique accomplishment. That\'s not arrogance, it\'s more pie in the sky, why not -- be thankful that they actually have a horse that\'s a viable contender and we get the chance to see it.
I don\'t need to \"think\" anything. He ran a zero at 9 furlongs in his second race ever, I\'d say that qualifies as being able to \"get\" 9 furlongs.
Please don\'t be sensitive. I was just commenting on your very insightful pedigree analysis. Not everyone would identify a sibling of two Belmont winners as a horse who was nicely bred to go 8-9 furlongs.
What I have a hard time believing about Casino Drive is the apparent improvement from his maiden to the Peter Pan. Sure, he took the maiden by 11+, but he did 1 1/8th in a time of 1:54.40 (according to Downey). I know, I know - track variations, blah blah blah - but unless they were running in a foot of mud, 1:54+ is incredibly slow (and what time did the 2nd place runner get?!)
So, he improved 7 seconds in his first race on a new continent. Perhaps we should expect a new Belmont Stakes record (or CD to be off the board completely).
Well in the Uk Lammtarra won the Epsom Derby after only running in and winning only one race as a two year old. Then he went on too win the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes and the Prix de l\'Arc de Triomphe and then retired.
ronwar Wrote:
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> I would guess, like the derby, not many tops are earned in the Belmont.
A friendly reminder concerning recent trends,
in last 9 runnings, Belmont champs running new tops;
Rags To Riches 2.5 new top
Jazil 1.0
Birdstone 3.5
Sarava 3.5
Point Given 3.0
Commendable 4.5
Lemon Drop Kid 1.5
That\'s 7 for 9, all except for Alex & Empire Maker, and in those years the bridesmaids ran tops;
Andros Hero 3.0
Ten Most Wanted 2.25
and not to forget 50-1 Vision & Verse placing with a 3.5 new top 4 after being \"stuck\" on 7.5 in 3 previous starts
maybe percentage wise for all runners there are not many new tops but exacta players might find this useful, or not
Flushed,
thanks for this.
Just to be clear, the numbers you listed next to the horse indicate how much they improved from their previous top, right?
I believe that Rags to Riches for example, ran a 1.5 negative in the Belmonth so you are saying that that was a 2.5 point improvement from her previous top, right?
If I have this right, this is really interesting.
What do you think the explanation is for these kinds of jumps in the Belmont when we don\'t see that too often in the Derby?
Those percentages are significantly lower with the amount of rest he\'s been handed.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> What do you think the explanation is for these
> kinds of jumps in the Belmont when we don\'t see
> that too often in the Derby?
My 2 cents is that generally, the Belmont compared to the Derby is a relaxed pace clean trip race where, given that going 12 panels is not a serious handicap, horses can run their race, i.e. they either fire their best shot or they dont. It seems that often horses in the Derby are taken out of their best game for one reason or another not directly related to their own shortcomings. That explanation and $2.00 will get you on the Q2 out to Belmont but it wont get you the winner...
Possibly of note, while looking through the archives I noticed that Tale of Ekati (a diamond (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekati_Diamond_Mine) in the rough?) has a similar pattern to Ten Most Wanted;
- set substantial (about 5 pts) new top in winning final derby prep
- small regression to a 3 in troubled trip Derby (tu) four weeks later
- then straight from Derby to Belmont
and like Birdstone, ToE won a stakes at Belmont as a 2 yr old, is going against an unbeaten unbeatable horse going for the Crown that smoked him in the Derby, and goes for a trainer that already won the Derby & Prkness but not Belmont. (irrelevant I know, but fun, can\'t resist)
While ToE may retain rat status on this board and among the pace oriented folk that discount his Wood win and among the public in general, aint that what we\'re looking for? Dismissed at THIRTY SEVEN to ONE in the Derby? I think there may be possibilities here, taking the leap of faith at a very fair price that he got staying power from okaasan. His determination and heart shouldn\'t be in question if you\'ve seen his races in NY, and that goes for Coa as well.