I\'ve checked the racing statutes, and I can\'t find anything that says we are *required* to bet the Preakness.
Can I get a ruling on this?
I just don\'t get a sense that there will be any value in betting the Preakness; as another poster pointed out, even if you beat Big Brown, you still have to sort out the second-tier crowd and find the winner.
(Some here are licking their chops waiting for the opportunity to do so, and I applaud you for your courage, and wish you well. I\'m taking a different path, however.)
In the years in which I have been playing close attention to the Preakness undercard instead of just focusing on the Preakness, there have been some fantastic wagering opportunities: obvious contenders paying $14+ to win...stickouts that would have paid $4.80 any other day paying $8 instead...generous exactas and serial bets.
There are no guarantees in this game, but I\'ll bet that I find three or four top-notch wagering opportunities on the undercard Saturday, and I\'ll pay for that bet with my time and effort spent handicapping and outlining a wagering strategy.
The Preakness, IMO, is shaping up as a \"watcher\", a waste of time handicapping and betting. There will be plenty of dead money to be found in the races leading up to it, too. Get some.
I\'m with you.
I never feel compelled to make a play. I can sit all day without making a bet until I feel certain the public is making a mistake. I don\'t see much quality in the Preakness field. Even though I feel certain that BB is going to run a slower figure, I don\'t think the probability that he\'s going to bouce badly is as high as others believe. I think it\'s way more likely he runs well and actually appreciates the shorter distance. I think he\'s way more vulnerable at Belmont where he\'ll be asked to run 12F and at least one fresh high quality opponent waits.
He\'ll probably be overbet, but that doesn\'t automatically translate into value elsewhere (unless he\'s wildly overbet) and that doesn\'t mean even if there is value elsewhere it\'s significant or can easily be determined.
Good point Rick.
When Smarty Jones won the Preakness, the P4 paid $750 for a buck. This with a $9 single (beating a horrible 6/5 Baffert), Mr.O\'Brien paying $24 on the turf, and Gators and Bears paying $6. All were very obvious using TGs. I think my ticket cost me 8 bucks and had it multiple times. Nice to have the closing race winner draw off and hide. Big pools and lots of uniformed money. Kinda like a loose, passive poker table. Hard to find, so take advantage when you can.
Mr. O\'Brien was the horse that convinced a couple buddies to pay attention to TG. I heard the proverbial \"he\'s never won a graded race\" comments while I talked him up (just an ALW. winner). I told them after the race, they wouldn\'t be able to say it again. I cashed, they tore, I smiled, they told me to eff off.
Then they asked who I liked in the next race.