Boy,
I am surprised to read the posts on this board. Experienced thorograph folks like Miff (and others), not willing to take a shot against Big Brown in the Preakness. BTW Miff, check your figures on Dutrow on short rest. I actually think betting AGAINST him in these situations has been one of my favorite plays the last few years, as his reputation about winning off short rest far exceeds his ability to get his horses to run their figures off short rest. Next time he has an entry with 0-11 days run, check his thoropattern. Just as bad as everybody else. He is better in the 12-29, but still not great. You were right BEFORE the derby, when you said Dutrow would be tough to beat with 5 weeks rest into the race. You are wrong now when you say short rest is his best.
Anyway, back to the Preakness. I realize I was wrong about this horse when I suggested betting against him in the Derby off the negative 3 in the Florida Derby. However, the fact that the horse ran a negative 4.5 in the Derby and now comes back in two weeks in the Preakness makes him MORE of a bet against, not less. We are talking about a horse who has had huge spacing between races into the Derby, mostly because of his feet, but nonetheless he has not been asked to run back off short rest. Now he has run the fastest derby in history, at least on Thorgraph and Ragozin (not Beyers) and he has to come back in 2 weeks. Look at how many horses have run negative 4.5 or better and how they did in their next race. I remember Ghostzapper pairing up his negative 6, but he was a 4 or 5 year old, not a spring 3 year old. I think Commentator might have paired up once also, but again an older horse. Of course, even as older horses, neither Ghostzapper or Commentator had to run back in two weeks. Big Brown does. Also, I am taking a different view on Dutrow\'s handling of Big Brown in the last week than Miff. Miff seems to be encouraged by the fact that Dutrow won\'t even gallop the horse, but is strictly walking/jogging him. I think that shows Dutrow is concerned about the horse running back on short rest. And he is certainly WRONG that Big Brown can bounce 6 points and win. If Big Brown runs a 1.5, he isn\'t winning. Another horse will run a \"0\" and Big Brown is likely to get another wide/conservative ride by Desormeaux.
Taking a broader look at the next two races, I would make it 50% that Big Brown runs OFF THE BOARD in either the Preakness or Belmont, assuming he runs in both. At the odds he will be, I only have to be right in one of those races to make a huge score. I know many handicappers I have talked to are going to wait for the Belmont and hand him the Preakness, but I think that is a mistake. He could bounce to the moon in the Preakness and if that happens, there will be no opportunity to bet against him in the Belmont. My view would be to take a reasonable sized bet against him in the Preakness and double it up in the Belmont, if he wins the Preakness, perhaps tripling it, if he is forced to run a negative 3 or so to win the Preakness.
If he is out of the super in either race, there is a ton of money to be made. Forget about looking for somebody to put underneath him in the Preakness, so you can get an $18 exacta instead of 1-5 on the win bet. Swing for the fences. He pays no better than $2.60 on top in the Preakness, despite the size of the field.
Anybody offering 5-2 on a matchup bet between Big Brown and Casino Drive in the Belmont? I would take it right now, with the caveat that if one doesn\'t run in the Belmont, the bet still stands.
Jerry, I know you don\'t want to give away the analysis for the Preakness, but are you ready to concede the Preakness to Big Brown? Am I way off base thinking that these next two races could be fantastic betting opportunities?
I\'m not sure it\'s right to say the horse needs big breaks between races - it only looks that way because of the prior (and apparently solved) feet issues. He ran back in the Florida Derby 24 days after his GP allowance race, and it certainly didn\'t affect his performance.
Dutrow wants to gallop the horse, but hadn\'t so far because of track conditions.
Agree about the betting angle, though.
If you bet against him in the Derby at 2/1 it\'d be difficult to be on him at 2/5 in the Preakness.You either pass the race or look for him to X on percentages.That\'s a wagering thing.What\'d the old guys used to say? If you weren\'t there for the wedding you don\'t want to be there for the funeral.
If you cashed him,going back to the exotics well on Saturday is at least an option.I\'m not concerned about the two weeks or lack of training.Dutrow for the first time had that horse 100% fit going into the Derby and it showed in the lane where he ran straight as an arrow.He could X,but I see an off maybe into the -2 range at worst.Think he\'s just a freak going up against a bunch of plodders and distance challenged horses in Baltimore.
Gayego,Behindatthebar and Hey Byrn(wide horse) all have one fast # on their resume.None of them have to run back to it.Maybe the exotic fillers come from slower horses that get inside trips or else move up a couple of points.Need the post draw and #\'s to construct a play.
I agree with everything you write here except the fact that it\'s obvious that another horse in the field can run a \"0\"
Hey Byrn is the one with some kind of shot to get back to a 0 or better which is why I suggested on the board yesterday that he was worth some kind of play but he\'s maybe 25% to get back to his top (based on the fact that he hasn\'t paired that big number in 3 subsequent starts)
I believe that Gayego and Macho Again are the only others in the field with 0\'s or better and its highly unlikely that either of them is going to run back to a top both because of the short rest for both of them and the fact that they are both more milers than true classic distance horses by pedigree.
I want to go against Big Brown more than anyone but I think we have a much better shot in the Belmont.
Vegas is offering -185 to go against a Big Brown triple crown. That may be a way to try and do what we are both suggesting (some small chance he loses this weekend but I real chance that he loses the Belmont).
Jimbo,
>Taking a broader look at the next two races, I would make it 50% that Big Brown runs OFF THE BOARD in either the Preakness or Belmont, assuming he runs in both.<
If that\'s what you think, you must also think his chances of winning the Triple Crown are way less than 50% because he might not finish off the board in either race but still lose.
He was about even money to win the Triple Crown in prop betting the last time I looked.
Vegas now offering -185 after Casino Drive\'s win on Sat.
If BB does not win the Preakness, he will not run in the Belmont.
Jim,
There is a glaring hole in your approach. On the chance that BB does not run well and loses (even though he\'s app 7- 10 lengths faster than all of them),you still have to pick the winner.The alternatives are a bunch of common horses you could put in a hat and pick one, like a lottery.I don\'t gamble that way.
Re Dutrow on short rest, you must FILTER his short rest runners,those results defy logic and no trainer comes close. The Thoropattern is irrelevant Jim(surprised at you) as BB does not have to come close to his best/normal figs to beat this group. He only loses if he x\'s by my calculations.Incidentally, without getting into it, BB ran HARDER in the Florida Derby than he did in the Ken Derby(racing stuff that has little to do with performance figures)
Gambling that a horse won\'t run his best is one thing, but picking from the group remaining is another.If there was a viable alternative I\'d agree with your approach but the rest are just stabs imo.
Mike
miff Wrote:
>
> Gambling that a horse won\'t run his best is one
> thing, but picking from the group remaining is
> another.If there was a viable alternative I\'d
> agree with your approach but the rest are just
> stabs imo.
>
>
> Mike
This is my big problem with the Preakness also..I would love to play against Big Brown but the question is if you don\'t play Big Brown who are you going to play?
These other horses at this distance are average at best..and I really believe that if BB bounces he is still better than these..I will play one backup Pick 4 with all of the others, but i\'ll key all of my main bets on Big Brown to win the Preakness and then lay it all on him to get beat in the stakes..Sometimes you just have to say the favorite looks too good, make him your A horse and move on to the next race..
i was just wondering myself that even if there\'s somebody in there at the zero range who looks the best in 20 years to run a new top , it might be asking too much imo to get the kind of efforts out of the horses that will be needed . I personally never try to guess exactly what number a horse will run , specially with new tops . i do try to guesstimate the \"range\" of the move . even if bb \"x\"\'s and still runs \"in\" we probably don\'t see big value .
Jimbo:
I will not try to beat BB in the Preakness. As has been well documented, BB can
bounce fairly significantly and beat this field, a field which you yourself
accurately characterized as \"second tier\" 3YOs. And now the only colt Dutrow
seemed to fear, Harlem Rocker, will apparently not be entered.
I will watch the Preakness closely, paying particular attention to BB\'s gallop
out. He galloped out very strongly in both the Florida and Kentucky Derbies.
Some \"pattern engineering\" going on here, as Dutrow will try to estimate what
level of effort will be necessary to prevail in the Preakness, and then bring
BB back to a peak effort 3 weeks later.
I can wait 5 weeks, because I think that, assuming some of the better 3YOs
reappear in the Belmont Stakes, an ambush of BB is conceivable. And I will take
it a step further and throw both BB AND Casino Drive out of the top spot if they
both run at Belmont.
Casino Drive is an intriguing story. From a breeding point of view, I have
already discussed how his young sire Mineshaft has a pedigree loaded with
classic race success; Casino Drive\'s dam needs no introduction, BUT:
1) Has there ever been a colt as lightly raced as CD (2 LT starts) who has had
success in the Belmont Stakes?
2) Casino Drive IMO could conceivably be a 5/2 second favorite, offering no
value in my estimation, and I understand where if you could get 8/5 in a head
to head with BB (and not have to win the race) this would be your bet.
3) Jimbo your analysis of a race is always predicated on analysis of TG numbers
and patterns. But even The Guru Jerry Brown, in a recent response to a question
about a race at Calder, made the point that \"the more numbers the better\". In
this particular case I would hope that TGJB does not mind me paraphrasing him:
You can not make a pattern (there is less TG# predictability)from a 2 race
sample.
I guess my question is Jimbo, do you think CD can win the Belmont. or is your
real bet/intention the head to head action with BB? If it is the former, I am a
bit surprised, because we both tossed BB out of the Derby partially based on
our (incorrect)perception of his lack of foundation. Now you are seriously
considering an even more lightly raced animal for the Belmont?
Good luck Saturday. If BB wins, pay special attention to his gallop out.
I am selfishly hoping for a BB Preakness win. I think Racing and NY Racing in
particular needs the infusion of cash and emotion which would result from
having a Triple Crown contender. If this scenario comes about I can start
looking for this year\'s Birdstone.
Hey Byrn was mentioned. Check out the replay of his last race,the Holy Bull, and tell me you can bet serious money on that horse.
Mike
Talking about light foundations in England a few years ago Lammtarra won their English Derby after only running and winning one race as a two year old. He went on to win two more races that year King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes and the Prix de l\'Arc de Triomphe and retired unbeaten. Of course that was on turf.
Richiebee,
I will certainly post my actual handicapping of the Preakness once I see the sheets this Thursday. Until then, I can only say that I am going to play Big Brown to bounce off the negative 4.5. Those that stated that no other horse excites them, certainly have a point. But it may just be that I box 4 to 6 horses in Tris and Supers, throwing Big Brown out, in which case I don\'t need to key a single horse to make money. We\'ll see once the sheets are out.
As for your comment on Casino Drive, I will bet him to win. However, 5-2 is not going to be his price, at least not if Big Brown wins the Preakness. 5-1 second choice will be more like it and at that price, I will certainly \"bite\". Richiebee, my bet against Big Brown in the Derby was based on the bounce off the negative 3.5 and having to negotiate post 20 in a crowded field and also his relative lack of foundation. Not just his light experience. And I can accept lack of experience taking 5-1 in a likely 8 or 9 horse field with only a couple of the 8 or 9 being fast enough to win, much more than I accept lack of experience in a 20 horse field at 2-1.
I am hoping Miff\'s guesstimate of a \"1\" for Casino Drive is right. I will very gladly bet that he improves off that race going 1 1/2 miles with his pedigree, especially considering he had one published work before the Peter Pan and was coming off a February layoff where BEFORE the race his connections expressed their concern over his readiness for this race. Yes, I know he has no \"pattern\" off the 2 races. However, I am willing to bet he runs better than he did in the Peter Pan, potentially much better. Gimme all I can get at 5-1.......
Jimbo-- I agree completely with your original post on this string. Interestingly enough I had the identical conversation with someone about passing the Preakness and waiting to get him in the Belmont-- two years ago, about Barbaro. I made a couple of big head to head bets and booked all of Barbaro I could get with a certain British outfit. My position was exactly yours-- if I don\'t get him here, I\'ll get him in the Belmont. This year, that position started before the Derby.
I did a couple of extensive interviews the last couple of days, we\'ll see what happens with them. The one with Kerrison, specifically on the Preakness, promises to be a barn-burner-- the Post has the same view of nuance that George Bush does, and I gave him something to work with.
JB, other than the Vegas prop bet of -185 for BB not to win the TC, how do you suggest inmplementing that view?
Jim-- That\'s what my Preakness comments with the sheets are for.
I will say this if you are playing BB to collapse-- all the others are not the same.
\"I will say this if you are playing BB to collapse-- all the others are not the same\"
JB,
In the sense that they are all common they are the same, and we are using the same data. A couple with one good fig or a live pattern here or there.
Mike
My point is, if you decide to throw BB out, you have to handicap the race just like he wasn\'t in it. As George Orwell might say, they may all be common, but some are more common than others.
And anyway, I don\'t agree they are all \"common\".
Mike,
CAn we change your moniker from \"Miff\" to \"the school teacher\", you are so enamored lately with chalk!! :)
Everybody but Big Brown is a slow rat.
Come on, if you are playing for a collapse and getting 20-1 on horses, I will take one solid figure with a live pattern. Let\'s see the sheets on Thursday.
Jim,
I\'m a realist that doesn\'t drink the KOOL AID.Suckers that know little consistently pick a fight with the 800 pound gorillas of racing,I look to beat up on the Sisters Of The Poor when gambling.
Every sucker I know has this bravado \"I toss the chalk all the time\" until they go broke and need to borrow money.Sound familiar? they call themselves \"value players\" and lose year after year.
Mike
JB, thanks so much, very helpful, can\'t wait to see them on Thursday night
Miff-- If you back through the ROTWs that I have written, take a look at how often I\'ve taken on those 800 pound gorillas at even money or less. To my knowledge-- and I could be wrong-- very, very few if any of those short priced horses I said were a bet-against have ever won ROTW (several have run second), and I\'ve been doing this a long time. That doesn\'t necessarily mean the ones I liked ran well-- but that I was right to take a position against the favorites. That\'s often why I pick the race.
Jim,
I estimate CD got a \'0\' in the Peter Pan, and, given all the JPY that hit the pool in that race, I\'ll be surprised if the colt goes off higher than 3-1 in the Belmont. if BB does bounce big, and struggles to win the Preakness, I could see CD lower than 2-1.
Schoolteacher/Miff,
Should I be insulted that you call me a sucker? I am not.
I don\'t borrow money and am not quite broke yet. Stay tuned, I will be sure and email you my quarterly financial report once the wife approves all numbers....
As for Kool-Aid drinking, your metaphor is quite misplaced. The Kool-Aid drinker would be the guy who plays \"follow the leader\" with the mainstream public. That sir, would be you, at least in the case of Big Brown in this Triple Crown series with your new favorite trainer Richard Dutrow. Big Brown, thanks to all the kool-aid drinkers will be $2.60 or lower on Preakness day. For a man who wants to make \"zillions\" as you posted last week, you are going to have to cash a lot of $2.60 bets.
You may not agree with my decision to bet against Big Brown and go anti-mainstream, looking to cash 25-1 in the win pool and several thousand to one in the Superfecta pool, but it certainly doesn\'t make me a kool-aid drinker. (for that matter, neither did my view on tale of ekati, as I don\'t remember too many supporters on this board for that selection).
The Proudly Self-Professed Value Bettor,
Jim
Michael,
You could be right. If you are, then my bet will change, as 2-1 on Casino Drive is not value.
We will see. i may hunt a bit now and see what futures bets I can get down now on Casino Drive, as I think there is a reasonable chance we don\'t even see Big Brown in the Belmont, in which case 8-5 might be the price on CD.
Jim
Ok Jim,
I did not call you a sucker but this is the second time you insulted me. So put your money where your mouth is.Firstly, I\'ll bet you do NOT beat the game.Second, since you have an ax to grind with me, lets put up say $50k head to head over 100 races, you pick the races. Yes or no?
Mike
Miff,
Contact me privately about your bet,if you are serious. Neither my name or email address is hidden (yours are or I would contact you). That doesn\'t need to be on this board, too personal.
Re-read what you posted. \"sucker\" \"broke\", \"sound familiar\", \"kool aid drinker\". None of those seem insulting to you?
It is great that you love Big Brown and think the world of Dutrow. God Bless. You won round 1 in the Derby. My posting here at the top of this thread was made to provoke some thought around betting strategies in the Preakness and Belmont. You don\'t have to like my opinion, but I am certainly not a Kool-Aid drinker, which is insulting.
And \"yes\", you are correct in your first assertion. I don\'t \"beat\" this game. I work for a living. If you are a professional and make a living at this game, god bless again. Although, it doesn\'t mean I won\'t take your bet and your money.
Jim
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
if BB does bounce big, and
> struggles to win the Preakness, I could see CD
> lower than 2-1.
I don\'t see it. If BB wins the Preakness, regardless of margin, he\'ll be odds on in the win pool at Belmont. Assuming TOE and some other decent horses run theres no way CD will be 2-1, I don\'t care how much Japanese money is on him. Its one thing to bang down the price on Peter Pan Day, a whole different story when the pools on Belmont Day will dwarf the pools from last Saturday. He may be second choice, but I see him around 4-1 at the worst.
Jim,
Again,I was not addressing you,but I do know tons of suckers as I described them.Being a good sport,I will let you take my $50k and will be in touch privately.
Mike
JB,
I believe that your 800lb gorilla may not always be mine.I swing hardest at short priced, not that fast/or over the top,reputation type horses. I don\'t mess with layover\'s with good spacing/patterns,heading west and in a favorable race shape scenarios.
You may know little Henry,he uses your stuff and we consult. He bets filtered 3-5 or 4-5 shots only for 10-20k a shot and has beat the game for 7 years running. He has been chased by the 3 of the largest bookmakers in NY.Not my cup of tea but there are certain 800 lb gorillas running that win at a very high percentage.
Mike
JB, one situation I will for sure back you up on is last year at the Spa for the Forego when you did the live seminar.
I owned a piece of the chalk in the Forego and you pretty much said that you showed up at the track that day to bet against him.
Even though you took all of the wind out of my sails about my horse potentially winning a G1, you saved me alot of money. He was a great throw out bouncing off a huge prior effort.
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Jim,
> >
> if BB does bounce big, and
> > struggles to win the Preakness, I could see CD
> > lower than 2-1.
>
>
> I don\'t see it. If BB wins the Preakness,
> regardless of margin, he\'ll be odds on in the win
> pool at Belmont. Assuming TOE and some other
> decent horses run theres no way CD will be 2-1, I
> don\'t care how much Japanese money is on him. Its
> one thing to bang down the price on Peter Pan Day,
> a whole different story when the pools on Belmont
> Day will dwarf the pools from last Saturday. He
> may be second choice, but I see him around 4-1 at
> the worst.
ToE\'s 25-1, maybe higher. what else? DoC 12-1? stop there, and BB wins the Preakness with a big bounce, and you\'re left with 8-5 on Casino Drive. I\'m more than willing to allocate $ to other runners, I just need to know who they are.
Michael,
I am hoping we never see who is right, because Big Brown is out of the money in the Preakness and doesn\'t run in the Belmont. However, I think you are off here. I won\'t speak for P-Dub, but i am guessing that he agrees with me that Big Brown is 1-5 in the Belmont. If so, there is no 8-5 in the race. 4-1 or 5-1 is second choice.
For your scenario to be right (CD at 8-5), you need Big Brown at 4-5 or so. I don\'t see it, not even if he wins the Preakness by less than a length.
But we will see in a few weeks.
I think I\'m posting on wrong board.
Where\'s the two dollar forum?
Jimbo if he is regressing or appears to be on numbers there will not be lot of big betters going \"all in\" on BB in the Belmont. They will be turned off by his line and be looking elsewhere.
Also how many Triple Crown winners have we had in the last 25 years? Reason enough to play against BB right there.
It just almost never happens.
I can see 3-5 easily then with everyone else it gets into field size.
IMO the probability of Big Brown bouncing off his negative 4 1/2 is as high as it gets. Of course, as usual, I have an entirely different reason for thinking that than most people. ;-)
IMO....
His negative 3 1/2 in the Florida Derby was 100% legit. He was hard used to clear some rivals while wide on the first turn on a day that losing ground was a disadvantage and where speed was no significant advantage.
On the other hand, his negative 4 1/2 in the KY Derby is somewhat suspect. A lot of his fast figure comes from adjusting his final time for his very significant ground loss on both turns. However, if you watch all the races from CD that day, lots of horses made wide moves on the turn. As a group, they did not seem to be at a particularly large disadvantage from the ground loss. Some held their ground well and others even rallied well on the turn. IMO, they were disadvantaged, but the disadvantage was not length for length. In addition, BB was going pretty easily while wide.
That\'s not such an unusual occurrence at CD. Races developments there often resemble those at Belmont a lot more than those at AQU on the Inner Dirt. LMAO
I\'m not saying the rail was dead at CD that day (IMO it wasn\'t). However, IMO either the outside paths were a little faster, the way the turns are banked at CD sometimes helps outside horses relative to inside horses in dealing with the turns, or some other factor sometimes makes losing ground less of a disadvantage than it usually is.
As far as I am concerned, Big Brown ran no faster in the Derby than he did in the Florida Derby and not much better other than proving he could relax, rate, and finish well at 10F against a deeper quality and much larger field.
IMO \"WHEN\" he earns a slower figure in the Preakness, it could easily mean he\'s not a negative 4 1/2 horse right now to begin with, not that he bounced. A more realistic and legitimate bounce would see him finishing well beaten (if that should happen).
IMO, he may have literally run a negative 4 1/2 in the KY Derby, but he didn\'t run a high quality negative 4 1/2. In \"real terms\" he probably ran a negative 2 or 3, which of course also gives him a slightly different pattern.
If BB wins the Preakness, a ton of money will be bet on him in the Belmont by unsophisticated players wanting to save a ticket on him if he wins the Triple Crown. Others will just want to say they bet him. It happens every single time there is a two leg winner. It always leads to the two leg winner getting more money in the Belmont than justified by the fundamentals.
What was Smarty in the Belmont?
I don\'t recall.
But I do recall laughing at some of the Belmont odds over the years when a horse won the first 2 legs. I am not predicting 1-5. I am predicting that whatever the fundamentals suggest, he will be shorter than that.
Silver Charm,
I think your Smarty example supports my 1-5 view. smarty was 1-5 in the Belmont. Close to 2-5, but nonetheless 1-5. Second choice was 6.7 to 1 in the Belmnont and third choice 10-1. Nowhere near the 8-5 that Michael is talking about.
You can also argue that Big Brown\'s derby was much more impressive than Smarty\'s. He won by more and challengers were not scared away in the Preakness the same way that they are of Big Brown (Gayego MAY be the only starter from the Derby try him).
Casino Drive will be nowhere near 8-5 if Big Brown wins the Preakness.
BB most certainly has to regress. But he\'s run so big on the numbers he can certainly bounce and win.
Tough race to project bounce is the play.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> I am hoping we never see who is right, because Big
> Brown is out of the money in the Preakness and
> doesn\'t run in the Belmont. However, I think you
> are off here. I won\'t speak for P-Dub, but i am
> guessing that he agrees with me that Big Brown is
> 1-5 in the Belmont. If so, there is no 8-5 in the
> race. 4-1 or 5-1 is second choice.
>
> For your scenario to be right (CD at 8-5), you
> need Big Brown at 4-5 or so. I don\'t see it, not
> even if he wins the Preakness by less than a
> length.
>
> But we will see in a few weeks.
Easier for me to project a long odds horse like Racecar Rhapsody into the exotics than it is to bounce Big Brown all the way out of the winners circle.
Made a big turn move off a long layoff on the deadest of rails at Turfway.Then he has stretch trouble in the Lexington.When he gets clear he finishes well and passes the winner on the gallop out.Ap Indy on the bottom should like the added distance.Dirt shouldn\'t be a problem going by his 2yo races.New top for sure in the Lexington but not too big.Maybe another one coming on Saturday.
Big:
RR just doesn\'t get involved early enough for my taste. Cannot recall a Triple Crown race in recent memory with so little interest from a wagering standpoint.
In a game where it pays more to be a contrarian, it appears that everyone will be doing the same thing...BROWNIE over several bombs. No thanks.
I\'ll root for him to romp, then hope Barclay Tagg enters Tale of Ekati in the Belmont.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B
I hear you.This field other than the chalk is awful and none of them show any finishing punch in routes.Racecar Rhapsody at least looks interested in going by horses.It\'s either a pass or 1/5 over a bomb for me.
The Belmont I\'m against both BB and Casino Drive.Give me Denis of Cork at 10-1 or >.
Big:
Take a shot...play RR to win or at least on the back-end of doubles. If BB does a Fu-Peg or Monarchos, you stand to cash big time.
As for the Belmont Stakes, in DOC or TOE, at least you have 2 colts that have run in the zero area with the possibility of a return to that or slightly better for TOE.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Great post. Dead on.
My thought is that even if BB wasn\'t a bounce candidate, he\'s still a good bet against, just because he\'s 1-5 and the pools are so large. You only have to be right once to be able to buy a nice house for cash at the end of the day.
Barbaro was just as good as Big Brown going into the Preakness and he didn\'t hit the board. If a superstar like Barbaro can miss the superfecta in the Preakness, so can BB.
Bet a ton against him in the Preakness and if he wins, double the bet against him in the Belmont.
If Big Brown wins the Preakness and no other super horse candidate emerges, I think Casino Drive will be about 7-to-2, give or take a point, in the Belmont.
Everyone I talk to in Kentucky is salivating over Casino Drive. His Peter Pan win was the talk of the industry. For those of you who think he is under the radar and you can get 6-to-1 or more, I don\'t see it. Current buzz indicates Casino Drive will be heavily bet in his next start.
imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My thought is that even if BB wasn\'t a bounce
> candidate, he\'s still a good bet against, just
> because he\'s 1-5 and the pools are so large. You
> only have to be right once to be able to buy a
> nice house for cash at the end of the day.
>
> Barbaro was just as good as Big Brown going into
> the Preakness and he didn\'t hit the board. If a
> superstar like Barbaro can miss the superfecta in
> the Preakness, so can BB.
>
> Bet a ton against him in the Preakness and if he
> wins, double the bet against him in the Belmont.
If you don\'t pick the right horse to \"bet a ton\", what good is it?? Just which horse do you bet??
LOL. I\'m still trying to figure out what a \"kool aid drinker\" is.Seriously.
P-Dub,
It doesn\'t have to be one horse, it can be a multi-horse box. But if you look back in this thread, I think you can make a case for \"one horse\" as well. Without seeing all the sheets yet, the two fastest horses besides Big Brown are Hey Byrn and Gayego. Hey Byrn had a negative one in early February (roughly). He has had 12-15 weeks since the big figure and is rested coming into this. He will be 25-1 or so and is faster than anybody besides Big Brown, has tactical speed to get a good trip, and could be set for a return to his top.
The other one, IMO, could be Gayego. Sheet purists might not like him coming back in two weeks, but he ran so little in the Derby, one could argue it was more like a tough workout, than a real race. (not a great argument, which is why he is 2nd on my longshot list, not 1st). He ran his \"0\" five weeks ago. Another will good tactical speed, possibly enough speed to get a 1w/1w trip on the lead. Figures 15-1 or so.
But Big Byrn is very live here, at a very large price, IMHO.
Flighted Iron,
Kool-Aid drinker = Google \"Jim Jones and Guyana\".
Jim,
Thanks.
Jimbo,
Did the multi horse box thing 2 weeks ago and got slapped. I was among the geniuses that tossed BB.
Agree with Hey Byrn, think he might be shorter than 25-1. Looking forward to the numbers tomorrow.
13 post with Chuckie Lopez don\'t think so.
With the exception of Behind, Racecar, and Yankee Bravo, the Preakness has mostly dirt or partially proven on the dirt type runners. Makes this one much easier to handicap than the Derby. Granted, fewer horses, unknown qualities.
Has the makings of a good wagering race.
I can\'t wait for miff to tell us who to play.
Small
Yankee Bravo ran his best # on dirt in the Louisiana Derby if memory serves correct.
Going by Racecars 2yo form his two dirt races were as fast(at least on tg\'s)as his two at Keeneland.
Behindatthewire had the one dirt race that wasn\'t much.
Yankee Bravo has had 2 turf, 2 poly and 1 dirt, that\'s why I mentioned that.
Racecar 4 poly and 2 dirt.
Behind 4 artificial and 1 dirt that wasn\'t so good.
Good observation, I was just making a general statement as to the makeup of the field compared to all the unknowns shipping from Kee and Cal.
Go get \'em..
Yankee Bravo looked terrible on the gallop out in the SA derby. YB fan\'s might want to watch that again before plunging.
Giant Moon ran right up with that hot pass in the Wood and kinda got squeezed off in the final 1/16th by Tale of Ekati and War Pass, missing by only a length or two. If he can run with those guys..... coming in on about 7 weeks rest.. I would have to think he may be a contender here.
Kentucky Bear is another one who has a legitimate chance at posting up a fast number Saturday.
Those two and Hey Byrn are my pool wreckers in the Preakness.
The intrigue builds! Tricky and his wonder horse against the grizzled and opportunistic and sometimes cranky TG board members:-)
I\'m rooting (not betting for or against) for Brownie to bring home the marbles and win it all this Spring. I really hope the horse doesn\'t hurt himself or if he does, that he\'s smart enough to pull himself up before something catastrophic happens. If he goes down, it\'s gonna get real ugly in a big hurry.
Good luck Big Brown! I hope you continue to teach Jimbo a lesson! LOL
James Jones was a jockey and here is his record:
http://www.goracing.ie/Content/HRI/HRIData/hrijockeydata.aspx?jid=4531
Kool Aid is a 13 year old mare:
http://croydon.local.thesun.co.uk/j/857895279-850u363/www.local.thesun.co.uk/detail/Kool-Aid-Mare-Horse---The-13-year-old-girl-who-owned-this/857895279/croydon/
Is Vegas making a line on the JIMBO-MIFF I
Looking forward to the sequels as well
I don\'t think they are all equal.
I will be using Riley Tucker, Kentucky Bear, Giant Moon and Hey Byrn with our favorite and without him.
I think Riley Tucker has a big shot to hit the board at 50-1.
I\'m rooting for BB also; I just can\'t take a stand against a horse who was 8 lengths better than the colts. Granted the 2 weeks is a concern, but he may be Curlin-like in that he is lightly-raced, fires every time, and may not have touched the bottom of his tank yet. The crop is average, and it will be interesting to see if Casino Drive ( who beat leftovers in the PP!) bounces \"second race off the plane\" and we can FINALLY have a TC winner the sport so desperately needs!
interesting draw. after the disastrous start last, I\'m assuming Gayego will shoot from post 12. Giant Moon has some speed, and he might go as well from post 11; same for Riley Tucker from post 10. Tres will go from post 2, and Kent will want to be forwardly placed with BB. I\'m not expecting a suicidal pace here, but you could have five or six runners looking for position up front. Racecar Rhapsody might get a very nice stalking trip from the 6 hole, maybe 2w 1st turn. RR has the \'5\' top going 1 1/6 at CD last year, and he looked like he wanted more distance. toss the Delta race on short rest, and I can excuse the TP run over the dead rail. broke through last over the Kee poly with a solid late run. looking for a new top here (32% T-P), something in the \'1\' to \'2\' range, which, with the right trip, could put him close at the ml of 30-1.
RR the key.
Racecar closed fast and galloped out past Riley Tucker and Behindatthebar like he wanted more real estate.I have him coming from farther back than 6th,but agree he\'s the key.Most of these on fumes by mid stretch.
Dominguez on Giant Moon is the only rider with an outside post that might be able to figure out how to save some ground.See his ride on Bluegrass Cat in the 2006 Derby.If he works out a trip he could suck up into the exotics.
I don\'t particular care if Big Brown wins the Triple Crown or not.. Because all indications say he\'s heading for an early rich retirement.
A triple crown winner that retires at 3 years old? No good for racing.