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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: sekrah on May 04, 2008, 02:44:15 AM

Title: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: sekrah on May 04, 2008, 02:44:15 AM
#1. There will be more negative media attention towards horse racing over the course of the triple crown.  We\'ll see characters come out of the woodworks and talk about how horrible the way some horses are treated.  We\'ll see PETA and other animal rights groups front and center.

#2. Massive pressure will be put on Churchill Downs to convert to Poly.
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: Themig on May 04, 2008, 04:27:42 AM
From the DRF and Larry Jones: He said \"that he didn\'t know what cause the injury, but it was wasn\'t the fact that she was running against males, nor was it the race track.\" Hopefully he will be left alone from the ignorant media for a while.
It looked to me that she would have chased BB around the track and into the winners circle. Full of run, full of heart.
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: girly on May 04, 2008, 04:52:48 AM
From the New York Times -Todays paper-
\"Two years earlier, Barbaro's breakdown in the Preakness and his death months later helped speed the adoption of synthetic racing surfaces, Eight Belles's death is bound to raise new questions about the safety of traditional dirt tracks like Churchill's and lead to second-guessing over whether a filly, which usually runs against other fillies, should have competed against colts.\"
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: marcus on May 04, 2008, 05:36:54 AM
one nyc broadcast network news show last night did raise the polytrack issue early on in their broadcast as a news story when addressing the tragic ending for eight belles and kentucky derby  ...
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on May 04, 2008, 06:21:10 AM
To be expected. Writers with no knowledge searching for something to write about.

The race was over.  However, agreeing with Sighthound, tend to think the injury manifested itself in the stretch. I noticed her wavering at about the sixteenth pole. I think the one ankle breaks post race around the turn and the jock stands up and the big gangly girl tries to suddenly catch herself with all the pressure going unnaturally on the good ankle and it goes too. One ankle she might have survived.

Great loss to Mr. Porter. Great loss to the breed. Poly is only marginally safer and there\'s really not enough data to conclude even that.

In the end, its like this, these horses would not even exist but for their love of running and our love of watching them run. As long as they run for us there will always be occasional tragic endings. One day a top jockey will die in a big race and then what?

girly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From the New York Times -Todays paper-
> \"Two years earlier, Barbaro's breakdown in the
> Preakness and his death months later helped speed
> the adoption of synthetic racing surfaces, Eight
> Belles's death is bound to raise new questions
> about the safety of traditional dirt tracks like
> Churchill's and lead to second-guessing over
> whether a filly, which usually runs against other
> fillies, should have competed against colts.\"
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: MO on May 04, 2008, 07:29:19 AM
Churchill won\'t go poly even if you put a gun to their heads. Churchill is all about tradition, and their shit don\'t stink. Trust me on this one.
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: MO on May 04, 2008, 07:32:39 AM
4 hard races (for a filly!) in a short period of time. This outcome, unfortunately, was not unpredictable.
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: cubfan0316 on May 04, 2008, 07:36:51 AM
larry? yopu dont know? how about 5 hard races capped off by a 1-14 mike race against the boys will do it.   getting like d-wayne. run em till they break down.
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: alm on May 04, 2008, 07:42:36 AM
When Col John (my key) hung in the lane I focused on Eight Belles and thought, as you did, that she suddenly wavered about the 16th pole.  At the time I thought the horse was merely tiring, but it could have been the injury.

One note, and I\'ve commented on this over the years, condylar issues (and this was a condylar fracture) don\'t happen without warning.  They are the final stage of a steady bone deterioration, which goes on for months.  

Generally, horses become \'ouchy\' and are given a variety of pain killers to enable them to keep training.  Occasionally they are taken out of training and can recuperate, given enough time.  Tale of the Cat was such a horse.

I don\'t know if the connections knew whether the filly was having this problem, but even if they did, the stakes were tremendous for a 3yo (and they are only 3 once.)
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: Uncle Buck on May 04, 2008, 07:46:08 AM
I was totally grossed out when the the first words out of the Churchill Downs CEO Bob Evans were not words of concern for the EB connections but \"First of all I\'d like to thank our sponsors.\" That my friends is evil incarnate. The corporate $$$$ cancer has infiltrated every last thread of American tradition.
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: fkach on May 04, 2008, 08:06:46 AM
Did anyone actually see the breakdown?

I didn\'t see it.

Everyone is saying how unusual it is to break down in both front ankles like that. I was wondering if she was just so exhausted from her effort, as she was collapsing and going down she did it in such an uncoordinated way both ankles gave out. ???
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: congaree1 on May 04, 2008, 08:10:08 AM
Buck That is PERFECT! Commercialism and corporate BIG business,has trashed all of us, or at least most! Even when the horses were coming on the track,Luke was saying yum and kfc and taco bell.
Title: Hold on One Minute
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on May 04, 2008, 08:19:12 AM
Now wait a minute. Eight Belles came into the race with the most starts (9) that was one of the reasons I favored her. Since September of last year she appeared to be holding up to training without any down time. She was running with 2 to 4 week intervals.

Don\'t you dare go comparing that record to Lukas at his callous best.

TGJB intimated there\'s more to this story. Lets hear it first, so we can factor it.

cubfan0316 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> larry? yopu dont know? how about 5 hard races
> capped off by a 1-14 mike race against the boys
> will do it.   getting like d-wayne. run em till
> they break down.
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: miff on May 04, 2008, 08:20:28 AM
\"Everyone is saying how unusual it is to break down in both front ankles like that. I was wondering if she was just so exhausted from her effort, as she was collapsing and going down she did it in such an uncoordinated way both ankles gave out\"



Sight,

You are closest to an expert on this board re this stuff,what do you think, thanks.

Mike
Title: Re: Hold on One Minute
Post by: congaree1 on May 04, 2008, 08:25:52 AM
Eight Belles, belonged in the race! She wins easy, if BB is not in the in it. You train too race. The 5 was a great post for her, so they went with it. Larry is know Lucas,he was all choked up. Don\'t think Lucas has that kind of compassion. As terrible as it was, I\'m still certain they made that right decision. Big heart, filly!
Title: To Set The Lukas Record Straight
Post by: Silver Charm on May 04, 2008, 08:33:59 AM
So far Larry Jones has one more Derby breakdowns to Lukas and Lukas is tied with Mr Horseman Michael Matz in the Preakness.

Didn\'t Bob Baffert run Excellant Meeting In the Derby because he had an Oaks filly then wheeled her back in the Preakness where she got pulled up and eased mid-race. Of course you guys and the media forgot about that one and all the others above.
Title: Re: To Set The Lukas Record Straight
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on May 04, 2008, 08:49:07 AM
Well,

There was Union City in the Preakness. Dead

Of course Charismatic in the Belmont.

Jump Start in the BC Juvenile.

Prince of Thieves in the Penn Derby. Dead

Mineral Wells. Dead

Grindstone went into the Derby with an issue and never ran again.

Theres a lot more, just can\'t come up with them right now. Lukas has faded away.

And unlike Jones, I never saw Lukas voice emotion. He had too many to care.



Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So far Larry Jones has one more Derby breakdowns
> to Lukas and Lukas is tied with Mr Horseman
> Michael Matz in the Preakness.
>
> Didn\'t Bob Baffert run Excellant Meeting In the
> Derby because he had an Oaks filly then wheeled
> her back in the Preakness where she got pulled up
> and eased mid-race. Of course you guys and the
> media forgot about that one and all the others
> above.
Title: Re: Predictions Post-Eight Belles Breakdown
Post by: Sandreadis on May 04, 2008, 08:49:19 AM
Maybe you can also comment on a man the size of  Jones working out his horses in the AM. Right or wrong it always bothered me.
Title: Re: To Set The Lukas Record Straight
Post by: Silver Charm on May 04, 2008, 09:13:06 AM
How many of the Lukas above were in the Derby and Preakness?

One.

Grindstone came back, got his picture taken, cooled out good, ate up and retired.

You are naming hores from over a 30+ year career.

What happened yesterday was terrible and tragic. A person has as much chance getting hit by a car at his mailbox. Larry Jones doesn\'t deserve this and neither does Lukas.
Title: Fixing the Triple Crown
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on May 04, 2008, 09:31:13 AM
I\'m actually hoping the old codger gets one more good one and brings him along with doting care.

You know what really peeves me? All those Derby horses are now running for cover. None of them want to face Big Brown in the Preakness. They want to take 5 weeks and ambush him in the Belmont. Thats B.S. Sure, its good for bounce handicapping, but it\'s unfair too.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45042.htm

To prevent it there needs to be an incentive. A large bonus, five million, but to win it you must start in all 3 races.

10 points for 1st
9 points for 2nd
8 points for 3rd
7 points for 4th
6 points for 5th
5 points for 6th
4 points for 7th
3 points for 8th
2 points for 9th
1 point for 10th

All 3 races with the same point allocation. Like Nascar, reward starts, reward placings far down the list. Aggregate point earner at the end of the 3 events wins 5 million, if they start in all 3 events.

I won the Derby, but I don\'t want to handicap a horse attempting to break maiden in the Triple Crown. Race your horses you chickens.



 Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How many of the Lukas above were in the Derby and
> Preakness?
>
> One.
>
> Grindstone came back, got his picture taken,
> cooled out good, ate up and retired.
>
> You are naming hores from over a 30+ year career.
>
>
> What happened yesterday was terrible and tragic. A
> person has as much chance getting hit by a car at
> his mailbox. Larry Jones doesn\'t deserve this and
> neither does Lukas.