That\'s the biggest number any Derby winner has ever run. By a lot. At least a pair, could be a new top.
The jockey had a hard time pulling him up. In fact he got bucked off on the backstretch.
The blimp shot shows how much ground that Denis Of Cork saves then you realize that he still gets beat double digits by a foe that goes 4w 3w.
Wow!
I\'m still not sure inside was the best place to be. Denis might not have run his best race from in there.
We\'ll look at that later, not in the mood right now.
firmturf Wrote:
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> The blimp shot shows how much ground that Denis Of
> Cork saves then you realize that he still gets
> beat double digits by a foe that goes 4w 3w.
>
> Wow!
Triple Crown, now or never.
What was the time? Didn\'t get it. Did you guys see the overhead, watching him accelerate? Wow.
Kent came off Brown as Brown jumped sideways a bit seeing Eight Belles go down. Kent ran over to the kid. Tragic and incredibly sad. If she was a lesser horse she would have slowed or pulled up. What an incredible filly.
20% chance to pair or run a better fig than the -3 is a narrow window. Only greatness can achieve such a feat. I agree with Dave, triple crown - now or never.
I feel awful for Larry Jones and his team.
It\'s a bizzare feeling going from elation from crushing the race to heartbreak in mere minutes.
Thanks to all for a great few months on this board. Time now just to sit back and enjoy the rest of the ride with BB.
thanks for posting this...NBC said he got bucked off. Good for Kent a class guy in the few times I\'ve met him.
I liked both those fillies and have the poor feeling she died running hard for me.
Now folks will say, its proof you don\'t run them against colts. I generally agree with that, but these were good fillies.
It\'s unfortunate. She came close to winning this race. The only thing more tragic would have been had she won it.
Larry Jones and Porter made the right decision. These results are not in our hands.
sighthound Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What was the time? Didn\'t get it. Did you guys
> see the overhead, watching him accelerate? Wow.
>
> Kent came off Brown as Brown jumped sideways a bit
> seeing Eight Belles go down. Kent ran over to the
> kid. Tragic and incredibly sad. If she was a
> lesser horse she would have slowed or pulled up.
> What an incredible filly.
I may have some things to say about Eight Belles later in the week, but not now.
I will say that a situation we have at this moment is almost identical to the one we had two years ago.
It was a truly another amazing performance by a horse that flashed potential greatness from the first time he stepped on the racetrack. It\'s a shame he\'s literally held together with glue because it\'s probably going to be difficult to hold him together through the Triple Crown series. As a fan, he gave me the chills I was hoping for through the stretch when I know I am watching a great moment in racing.
JB,
Agree,ground and weight will make it so. The track played very fast all day with fast times on all dirt EXCEPT for the Derby(2.01.82, slowish considering track speed). Check out the two turn maiden winners in the 4th and 11th pace,splits and final time and compare the derby.
Brilliant performance, gigantic fig, but emotions aside,not fast against the clock.A pathetic bunch except for the winner and Eight Belles.
Mike
There was a 20 mile per hour head wind in the stretch at one point in the afternoon.
First quarter in 23.30, and it slowed from there. Last half mile in 50.6
Eight Belles was all class. The winner will get a fig far more impressive than the effort it took to earn it. The other colts really are that bad.
Some truth to what you said, but a good number of those colts ran off races too.
I\'m looking forward to red boarding this race. If you go by the best T Figures with a BJB key, I think you stand right there with the Super.
sighthound Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First quarter in 23.30, and it slowed from there.
> Last half mile in 50.6
>
> Eight Belles was all class. The winner will get
> a fig far more impressive than the effort it took
> to earn it. The other colts really are that bad.
Sight,
Eight Belles outran the rest of that field bad. She left kinda hard for position, stayed in range to the pace, got blindswitched/stopped at the head of the strecth and held very game, ran her heart out. Her TG figs were CONSISTENTLY fast compared to many of the \"one fig\" wonders that she dusted.
Very sad and now the animal loons and the clueless race execs will be poly promoting again.
Mike
The winner ran a nice race. He\'s not yet challenged, so who knows what he could do.
Eight Belles was all class and guts. She never gave up trying to catch him, from lengths back. Comported herself with much maturity during the running of the race (But look at her experience)
Chuckles,
The red board is not a pretty site for those that didn\'t cash big on this race.
Big brown was 3 points the fastest horse with his negative 3.
The \"line of demarcation\" was a zero. Seven horses besides Big Brown ran a zero (weight adjusted for the filly). The filly ran it 4 times, the other colts only once each.
The other \"0\'s\" belonged to Tale of Ekati, Denis of Cork, Z Fortune, Pyro (last year), Smooth Air and Gayego.
A super key of Big Brown over the seven would cost you $210 and get you 29k.
miff, you watch a good race
I\'m trying to figure out why I\'m melancholy. I think its the betting, adopting the animal as yours. I\'ve never really had a horse I\'ve grown to embrace through cashing, die on the track. Now I know what the Barbaro people felt like, although I think the shock is greater this time. She ran a great race and I was inconsiderate a couple years back.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sight,
>
> Eight Belles outran the rest of that field bad.
> She left kinda hard for position, stayed in range
> to the pace, got blindswitched/stopped at the head
> of the strecth and held very game, ran her heart
> out. Her TG figs were CONSISTENTLY fast compared
> to many of the \"one fig\" wonders that she dusted.
>
>
> Very sad and now the animal loons and the clueless
> race execs will be poly promoting again.
>
>
> Mike
They are going to have a hard time promoting poly/synthetic surfaces as a good place to prep your derby horse.
I was just going to post the same.
So much for the California Class of 2008, P-Dub.
7 horses had run the \"zero\"equired to win here. Four of them are the first four finishers. Thanks for the super the super Jerry
And of course, no super race goes unpunished - off to the Preakness. How about a walkover Preakness and 5 weeks off to the Belmont - like to avoid this potential breakdown.
Eight Belles - one too many mornings and a thousand miles behind - (credit to Mr. Dylan).
Today a classic case of the ecstay and the agony - the best performance I have ever seen by a thoroughbred (and I go back to Dr. Fager) and another crushing breakdown - they go out there every time and do the best they can, without any other agenda - and it\'s the horses that pay the ultimate price.
Sorry - I\'ve just seen too many of them.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> I was just going to post the same.
>
> So much for the California Class of 2008, P-Dub.
Yes Genius, this year they didn\'t hit the board.
Congrats on a nice score.
Jerry,
What were you implying Saturday post tragedy?
Olsenny,
Congrats, but its best to go on record before.
I was going to itemize my precise bets but when I began submitting them with about 20 minutes to go I experienced lag. The submissions were lagging and I stole a furtive moment here to quickly post Key Big Brown. When I was in trouble I bet in priority:
Win
Perfectas
Trifecta
Super
I also was having difficulty printing the confirmations. The whole thing cost me lots of time and I never got my Superfecta in, but the problem saved me money because I did not have Denis of Cork in third.
I did have a very nice Big Brown - Eight Belles perfecta
olsenny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And of course, no super race goes unpunished - off
> to the Preakness. How about a walkover Preakness
> and 5 weeks off to the Belmont - like to avoid
> this potential breakdown.
>
> Eight Belles - one too many mornings and a
> thousand miles behind - (credit to Mr. Dylan).
>
> Today a classic case of the ecstay and the agony -
> the best performance I have ever seen by a
> thoroughbred (and I go back to Dr. Fager) and
> another crushing breakdown - they go out there
> every time and do the best they can, without any
> other agenda - and it\'s the horses that pay the
> ultimate price.
>
> Sorry - I\'ve just seen too many of them.
JB,
\"That\'s the biggest number any Derby winner has ever run. By a lot. At least a pair, could be a new top\"
....Mark Hopkins/Beyer (Big Brown 109)
Mike
Thanks. I eventually changed my mind and used CJ on top w/ BB because of his CD work, so I was wrong, too. I think Gayego got the worst trip of the day, so I would throw his race out. Think he is the class of Cali. I think CJ and Pyro are just too slow.
Colonel John went :57 and 4 and 1:10 and 4 six days before the Derby, blowing hard afterwards. That was a bit too fast. Coupled with the trouble he found, it was too much to overcome.
If he\'s ok, he\'s coming back for more.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks. I eventually changed my mind and used CJ
> on top w/ BB because of his CD work, so I was
> wrong, too. I think Gayego got the worst trip of
> the day, so I would throw his race out. Think he
> is the class of Cali. I think CJ and Pyro are just
> too slow.
Chuckles,
I saw about 1/2 the races. I looked to me like the outside paths may have been the best paths. Not so much that the inside was bad, but that horses weren\'t severely disadvantaged by losing ground. What was your take?
Also, I know the official designation was fast, but if anyone was actually there was there any moisture still in the track underneath? Several horses may not have liked the surface if it was still wet underneath. I know the trainer of Colonel John said that during the week.
I never like the rail at this time of year at Churchill. I\'d tell my jock stay 2 paths wide and though I don\'t think the rail was ideal its wasn\'t death valley either.
Expect a better effort out of Denis Cork next.
Also a better effort out of Alina. She bounced.
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> I saw about 1/2 the races. I looked to me like the
> outside paths may have been the best paths. Not so
> much that the inside was bad, but that horses
> weren\'t severely disadvantaged by losing ground.
> What was your take?
>
> Also, I know the official designation was fast,
> but if anyone was actually there was there any
> moisture still in the track underneath? Several
> horses may not have liked the surface if it was
> still wet underneath. I know the trainer of
> Colonel John said that during the week.
That is good recognition Chuck.
CTC:
I\'m speculating...however I believe that Mr. Brown is implying that the \'huge efforts/pattern\' of BB is quite similar to Barbaro.
Chuckles,
I just watched the rest of the replays. I think I\'d have a tough time calling the rail dead. But CD is one of those tracks where is just seems that outside horses often don\'t have a great deal of difficulty keeping up with the horses inside of them or rallying wider on the turn. When I see many of the races developing like that it always makes me wonder whether the outside paths are a little faster or there\'s something about the banking of the turns etc...that negates some of the disadvantage of being wide.
Obviously something like that would matter in how you evaluate BB\'s Derby peformance. It was either very feakish or just very very good. ;-)
Pyro has never gotten back to his 2 yo top. He\'s toast.....
I would be really surprised if that is JB was going to say. The patterns are not similar.
From memory, Barbaro had a nice improving line, a top of about 1 in the Fla Derby. he was poised to move forward in the Derby, although as I recall he was about the 6th or 7th fastest coming in and for me was a big underlay, despite the nice pattern.
Eight Belles had 4 very big efforts, right in a row, with a bear in or bear out in the last one. This handicapper/fool thought she was over the top, as indicated by her bear in/bear out and I thought short term improvement was very unlikely, although I was certainly wrong.
Not a great comparison from a recent form/pattern perspective.
Miff,
Beyer was WRONG on Big Brown in the Florida Derby and it looks to me that he is compounding the problem with his 109 figure now.
Jim,
In my translation,Beyer adjusted at 106 was correct in the FD, equal to a TG neg 3-ish.Why would BB\'s effort in the derby confirm any fig?, Beyer or TG(Rags had it slower).If he ran last yesterday, would TG and Beyer be wrong, I think not.
Fyi, Beyer 109 adjusted for 126lbs and ground (app 6 total paths lost) is app neg 4 on TG.If you saw the Rags yesterday, I did, you would have tossed your selection TOE who had an 8 or 9 in the Wood, app a TG 5.There were great differences betwen the 3 on 8 Belles which now appears to confirm that TG had her correctly consistently faster than Beyer/Rags.
My opinion after watching and reviewing the entire card is that BB ran an excellent performance figure as did the filly,the rest, a disgrace.A mulligan may be in order for Recaturetheglory who flipped in the tunnel pre race and did more running than, TOE or DOC.
Mike
Miff-- when Beyer deals with the Derby, the 126 pounds effectively washes out, since they all carry it, and it\'s the only 1 1/4 race. They will do it using the horses in the race, tying it loosely to the other route-- as they should, otherwise they would rob all the 3yos. So no weight correction Beyer/TG in this case.
Miff,
Ok, if your translation beyer to tg is correct, then I stand corrected. I struggle with it though, especially from the perspective of comparison over the course of the last 10 year period. Big Brown\'s Beyer is slower than Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Barbaro and significantly slower than Smarty Jone\'s Derby. But on TG it will be the fastest ever? I guess this goes back to \"how fast are horses getting faster\" and that whole debate.
As for your comments on Tale of Ekati. Enough Miff. The horse ran. Most of us knew this was a subpar group of 3 year olds, except for Big Brown and the filly. Amongst that subpar group. Tale of Ekati was one of the ones, for me. And he turned out to be that. The wood was not the shitty prep that you and others gave it. It turned out to be better than the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass. I may be an idiot for the way I bet the race, but normally I will take finding a 40-1 that will be in the Super, than finding a 2-1 to put on top.
TOE ran a representative race, as one of the better 3 year olds of a very bad crop.
BTW, you are over-rating Recapture the Glory. Let\'s get in touch if RTG and TOE meet in the future. I will be happy to make a significant wager on that.
JB,
While there were no other 10f races there were still 2 other two turn races. It does not take too much creative license to use them imo.While the derby weight and extra 3/16ths are significant, I could not say that that was the fastest derby in history.The wind thing is a consideration but measuring it\'s real effect in terms of points is way too subjective, imo.
The clock said 2 01.82 and as a student of adjusted splits and track speed, I think you and Mark are going to come out a little fast but I can see your take. Have no idea how Rags will handle this race but big ground loss runners on that product usually get good figs almost regarless of how fast they run.In fairness, I have very limited looks at their stuff.
Your analysis was well thought out,imo. For me it was as simple as Tricky being peerless with 5 weeks spacing,coming off gigantic legit fig which none of these had come close to in my way of looking at races.I told a friend before the race that I felt BB was 5-10 lenghts faster than all of them. Except for the filly, I had it right.
Mike
Jim,
\"TOE ran a representative race, as one of the better 3 year olds of a very bad crop\"
What a nice take on a horse that totally tripped out, inside out late and hung like a chandelier.Not that numbers are the be all, but I think that Recapture ran a better fig than TOE, we\'ll see, he certainly ran a better race.Does it tell you something that the Wood winner went off at 37-1 with 100k people betting(95k know zip,imo) How you conclude that it was better than the ARk derby, is beyond me, the BG maybe.
Jim, buddy, you are testy about a horse that is a slow rat like ALL the rest of this crop, except BB.I would not want to bet you head to head as I\'m trying to beat the windows for zillions not you for a few bucks.
Mike
>The wood was not the shitty prep that you and others gave it. It turned out to be better than the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass.<
Jimbo,
IMO, whatever figure you assigned to the Wood, you had to think TOE ran fairly well that day. He was relatively close to War Pass\'s ridiculous pace early and was prompting it while wide. He didn\'t have it as rough as War Pass, but he ran very credibly. Nobody with a much better trip closed him down.
I put hardly any money into the Derby because I thought the whole thing hinged on your opinion of Big Brown. Before the race I thought it was obvious he was special horse, but there were so many question marks, keying him at that price didn\'t inspire a great deal of confidence on my part that I was getting great value. That goes double because I didn\'t hate Pyro (who was a question mark because of the poor Poly race) and didn\'t hate Colonel John either (many of the CA horses were running a lot faster on dirt). If you aren\'t sure you are getting good value on the favorite and can\'t totally toss the 2nd and 3rd choice, it gets pretty difficult to construct a bet.
For the record, I don\'t think the result tells you much about about what the values were (win or lose). There are always things that can\'t be known before a race. The result doesn\'t tell you what the probabilities were.
I played TOE across the board for a little rooting action at that price (Cool Coal Man and Monba also), but my mother actually put more money into the race than I did (do you think I should keep her rebate? LMAO)
Miff,
I am done on this topic. If you find it productive to continue to call them \"slow rats\", so be it. Slow, fast or average, somebody has to finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. It doesn\'t really mean much if you personally think the ones that finished 3rd through 20th, are slow. My guess is that when others on this board (not me), cashed their 58k super bets, the tellers didn\'t ask them if Tale of Ekati tripped out or if most of the horses in this year\'s derby were slower than the normal crop.
Other than identifying Big Brown as a solid 2-1 favorite, not sure what value there was in identifying that all the horses are \"slow\". That opinion can\'t be translated into any money, at least not until this crop tries older horses.
As for making zillions. God Bless, I hope you do. I know you like BB, so I am sure you cashed. Considering your disdain for TOE and DOE, I guess this wasn\'t the race for the zillions.
Take care
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
> \"TOE ran a representative race, as one of the
> better 3 year olds of a very bad crop\"
>
> What a nice take on a horse that totally tripped
> out, inside out late and hung like a
> chandelier.Not that numbers are the be all, but I
> think that Recapture ran a better fig than TOE,
> we\'ll see, he certainly ran a better race.Does it
> tell you something that the Wood winner went off
> at 37-1 with 100k people betting(95k know zip,imo)
> How you conclude that it was better than the ARk
> derby, is beyond me, the BG maybe.
>
> Jim, you are testy about a horse that is a slow
> rat like ALL the rest of this crop.I would not
> want to bet you head to head as I\'m trying to beat
> the windows for zillions ot you for a few bucks.
I\'d say ToE and Recapture ran about the same; neither wanted the distance. ToE had a bit of trouble early, and Recapture had to do too much early. honestly, I\'d rate them a toss-up h2h.
I agree on the slow rat theory though. this is not an impressive group of 3 yr olds so far. could be that most of them want 7f to 1 1/16.
Jim,
Last post also. Correct on those who collected but that was not the conversation.I\'m much more a double, pick three, 4 or 6 guy. I could not have cashed the race exotic in any way as I\'m not a spreader. Good Luck!
Mike
No one was going to beat Big Brown, but you have to consider some of the silly rides given other horses.
Look at the race over again and concentrate on Colonel John....Cory Nakatani was the weakest part of this entourage.
As Borel has shown over and again at Churchill, you do not try to close through or around the pack at the track. You ride the rail and you finish like Dennis of Cork.