I still think Proud Spell should have run in the Derby. The other filly is very good, but I\'m not sure they appreciated how this filly was going to get over the track. The odds were very fair.
I know it was chalky, but never discount a clown at Churchill Downs.
CtC
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,42594,42653#msg-42653
So for all we know you bet Pure Clan to win.
If you claim victory after the Derby, it better be because you have made unambiguously clear how you are playing the race.
I thought you were going to draw a comparison between Col John and Country Star.
Unfortunately, despite keying Proud Spell, I tossed Little Belle. A Pure Clan key wasn\'t such a great call.
Methinks there are some naysayers amongst our merry band!
I feel somewhat akin to Jesus Christ on the cross. What did he say?
I clearly delineate 2 fillies and say in the same breath \"Gun to my head I\'d key one, but not sure\"...Then the track comes up sloppy for the outside closer?
Let\'s just say the Commie Pinko Red Star Heineken\'s are flowing and I\'m very happy, but I did Dutch.
Now, if i indicated the Dutch ratio I\'d really be crucified.
Let\'s just say the Commie Pinko Red Star Heineken\'s are flowing and I\'m very happy.
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,42594,42653#msg-42653
anyway, you can\'t look back....full speed into tomorrow
Ain\'t it a gas?
CtOaksClown
-------------------------------------------------------
> Unfortunately, despite keying Proud Spell, I
> tossed Little Belle. A Pure Clan key wasn\'t such a
> great call.
How much would it cost to have you pick the Derby in front of a camera tomorrow;
(it could probably be collectively raised)
Definitive 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th; with specific wagering strategies.
Some of your general handicapping posts have some value.
YOUR PICK POSTS ARE NONSENSE. 4 horses, 5 horses.
Every novice handicapper in the world had either the 8 or 11/ over many contenders tomorrow.
Give us how you are going to make money chalk/Derby.
Chuckles,
You should be banned from the board for even saying you dutched a 3-1 and a 4-1. That is pretty pathetic.
I think you should take the money from the dutch bet and put it to show on Big Brown and REALLY go out on a limb.....
Dutched your way to an $8.80 mutuel, eh?
I think there\'s an Eclipse award for such a bold achievement in horse race betting. Lemme check.
I\'m sorry, but why do ya\'ll take someone named chuckles the clown so seriously? Really? Leave him alone, he\'s having fun- I just don\'t read him that much- you don\'t have to either-
Jimbo,
I\'m a trifecta and superfecta bettor. I rarely Dutch and when I do its in exotics keys or \"part wheels\". It\'s certainly Never to win.
Even with dutching the trifecta was merely 12 combinations Jimbo
1,2
1,2,3,4
1,2,3,4
And, I weighted it. You want to know what my return was? I didn\'t reach my benchmark, but it is 100-1.
Pure Clan was a little lucky to get up and good thing she did, but shes gonna do far better on a dry track from a more favorable post.
If I mention four horses, weighting two that are vying closely for the win, and two others that are exotics fill horses and you\'re not convinced that a dutch was reasonable, I can\'t help you.
The Oaks was chalky, but there was no super chalk and it cashed well if played right even with a dutch.
Anyway, thats enough retrospect. Time for one more beer.
I think I\'m gonna have a huge day tomorrow. Whichever horse wins. It will be mine. I just know it!
lol :)
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> You should be banned from the board for even
> saying you dutched a 3-1 and a 4-1. That is
> pretty pathetic.
>
> I think you should take the money from the dutch
> bet and put it to show on Big Brown and REALLY go
> out on a limb.....
TGraph sells that service and essentially, I make my choices (this time of year) based upon their numbers.
My bets are always evolving. (For instance right now I\'m hearing BJB is gonna be in front wraps. I don\'t particularly like that but won\'t make up my mind for some time. ) I\'ll post with less than a minute to offtime, but I\'m not a tout.
We talk horses here for fun. No one is trying to push their picks on someone else.
lcfjr3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How much would it cost to have you pick the Derby
> in front of a camera tomorrow;
> (it could probably be collectively raised)
>
> Definitive 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th; with specific
> wagering strategies.
>
> Some of your general handicapping posts have some
> value.
>
> YOUR PICK POSTS ARE NONSENSE. 4 horses, 5 horses.
>
> Every novice handicapper in the world had either
> the 8 or 11/ over many contenders tomorrow.
>
> Give us how you are going to make money
> chalk/Derby.
girly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m sorry, but why do ya\'ll take someone named
> chuckles the clown so seriously? Really? Leave him
> alone, he\'s having fun- I just don\'t read him that
> much- you don\'t have to either-
I enjoy Chuckles. Even when he\'s being given a hard time, he responds with jocularity.
chuck does get excited at times but i usually don\'t like to bet against him becouse he is an excellent handicapper ... if i\'m reading him right in the derby , and as one of those more traditional types of handicappers , he\'s probably going with lady luck as one key horse ...
Girly:
Seen in Manhattan through a wet mist tonight...
The windows of the famed Varick Street Think Tank are fully lit, a blazing
contrast to the surrounding darkened buildings. On the sidewalks of this
industrial yet highly fashionable nabe, the sounds of the street may be heard:
a halal slinger scraping his spatula on the grill, some idiot dropping a bottle
of Heinekens.
The brain trust is pacing the floor. JB is not happy even though he has
calculated (and rechecked) his Oaks/Derby will pays. TGAB is pissed because he
had a lock at Evangeline which he missed. The TG crew is tired from a long week
of producing the Oaks/ Derby seminar, but nobody has left the building.
TGJB is very peeved that Team TG has not been able to get the new product fully
ready for Derby time....
I\'m not talking about Race Shapes, Girly.
I\'m talking about a feature that will make each TG user, poster and lurker\'s
life easier and more enjoyable....
The \"Mark all Chuckles\' Messages Read\" button
I am dying to hear how you dutched 4 horses with a tri that came back $235 (?) and got 100-1.
I didn\'t
I dutched 2 and it was close to 50-1.
I made Spell 75% to win
Clan 25% to win.
Bob Black Jack is gonna try to wire this field Jerry. He\'s going and on this strip right now and on the right path he\'d take them to the wire.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am dying to hear how you dutched 4 horses with a
> tri that came back $235 (?) and got 100-1.
Even if you really had made the winner 75% (in direct contradiction of your post which made the other horse the most likely winner), show me the play that used all 12 combinations (as you said you did) and returned 50-1.
Red Smith, move over,
15 dollar Trifecta key
1 with
2,3,4 with
2,3,4
5 dollar Trifecta Key
2 with
1,3,4 with
1,3,4
I had the Super too, don\'t ask, because i\'m not saying.
p.s. before the rain i had them rated 51% to 49%...I call that an \"obama bet\"
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Even if you really had made the winner 75% (in
> direct contradiction of your post which made the
> other horse the most likely winner), show me the
> play that used all 12 combinations (as you said
> you did) and returned 50-1.
Again, giving all the benefit of the doubt (which I do not, I think we would have heard from you if any 3 had finished in any order or if Pure Clan had won no matter what the others did), that\'s a $120 investment bringing back $1,700 plus. Where\'s 50-1?
Lets stop mixing apples and oranges. It\'s time to focus.
We can discuss machinations after the Derby.
Here they come.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Again, giving all the benefit of the doubt (which
> I do not, I think we would have heard from you if
> any 3 had finished in any order or if Pure Clan
> had won no matter what the others did), that\'s a
> $120 investment bringing back $1,700 plus. Where\'s
> 50-1?