David,
I am a little surprised at your logic on the Ragozin Board that so what if Big Brown breaks from the 20 hole he only runs another 11 feet to get to the rail by the first turn. I have to agree with Madison. If has to run 22 and 44 to get there he is toast.
Dutrow is a rookie acting like the greens at Augusta are slow and flat. Even Seattle Slew had major trouble in the Derby and was good enough to overcome it. We do know that about Big Brown.
Hi Silver... I was attracted by your heading. Hi David if you are reading this I\'m sure you will remember me. Best regards. Hi Jerry...personal circumstances are tough right now but I will be in touch...best of luck Saturday (luck has nothing to do with it, of course). Looked at the sheets quick and not JB\'s comments. I\'m going with what\'s here...
Brief review
Big Brown - good reason to bet the race. Bad feet, needs the lead, big top, 20 post, short price. Anyone betting this horse does not need TG. Throwout. If he wins more power to him. If you bet this horse, you should play slots. The whole point of horse playing is value. Plus, if I may be spiritual for a second (as a Brooklyn native this makes me slightly ill...but I think it\'s true) Dutrow has a horse with a negative number, but he has generated plenty of negative waves (as Donald Sutherland (\"Dirty Dozen\") would say) and I feel bound to go against...
Tale of Ekati - pair up from this post could win. Use on top.
Court Vision - needs to move up, not impossible. Definite use \"under.\"
Eight Belles - Gets a point in weight. Zero would win. Use on top.
Visionaire - another \"under\" use.
Pyro - rain would be a big plus. Otherwise eh.
Colonel John - could move forward, should be a plus on the dirt, positive for the distance.
Denis of Cork - another who can run a zero, but I don\'t love the big backup last.
Seven horses is manageable in this race. I\'m sorry I can\'t be more specific on Thursday. The two I like best on top at first blush...Eight Belles and Tale of Ekati.
Best to all,
HP
The start is way more important for speed types like BB than it is for horses that will be dropping back on their own. So I guess \"in theory\" this post position makes some sense.
If he breaks clean he doesn\'t have to worry about someone outside of him coming in.
If someone comes out on him, he\'s still probably better off than getting sandwiched when he gets pushed out.
In addition, in really huge fields when the speed horses start dropping in, there\'s almost always some bunching that impacts some of the inside horses. He\'s going to avoid all that.
However......
There aren\'t a bunch of one dimensional speeds in the race, but the other outside horses do have some speed and will also be going for position. IMO, there\'s almost no way he outsprints all those other speed horses before the first turn without using himself to do it. He\'s going to have to be REEEEALY good to repeat what he did in the Fl Derby against better horses at 10F in the K Derby. I just can\'t see it.
That\'s why I think....
This post position selection only makes sense if the horse can rate in the second flight and get to the 2 path by mid turn (the sooner the better). I think Dutrow is very confident this horse can rate and that\'s what I expect him to do unless for some strange reason he can make the lead quickly and easily.
Hey Silver! Where you been man? You are laying way too low lately. Are ya off the feed? Ouchy? What?
You gonna party like its 1999 Saturday night or what?
Freshening up a little Uncle Buck. Coming out for a light breeze here and there.But when I do come back out I\'m gonna break like an absolute MONSTER!!
HP\'s back, Patent loitering around. Who is next Aldar and Marc.
A $13.80 win mutual as a backdrop for Colonel John\'s winners circle picture screams value to me.
This scenario is a great fantasy, but if you take a look at the horses inside of BB and consider what they all will be doing going into that turn, there is very little possibility that he will make it to the 2 slot....ever.
A 3-furlong blowout 2 days from the race is meant to sharpen a horse\'s speed. BB\'s going to the front.
Why?
If you start with the assumption that he\'s a speed horse that has to go, it looks like a very difficult task.
If you start with the assumption that he made the lead on the turf because they were crawling early and he was very superior, rated nicely for awhile in the ALW start and then again blew away inferior horses, and was sent in the FL Derby because of the very short run to the 1st turn, there is no proof he\'s not rateable.
If he\'s rateable, he can leave alertly and allow the other speeds to outrun him, drop in behind them quickly and then have a very long stretch to work his way inside in the 2nd flight several lengths behind the leaders.
I\'m not saying that\'s what\'s going to happen, but I think that is the scenario Dutrow is envisioning. He has already said the horse can rate. So he must believe it. Going hard early is going to be a problem unless he\'s SLEW.
Assuming everyone breaks okay, if I am to read the intentions of the \"speed\" horses and their connections, it is clear to me I think only one horse outside of BB, who think they can win this race by wiring the field. Those connections(horse) are recaputuretheglory. I think both gayego(See Ark Derby and SanFelipe) and cowboy cal(see laurelfuturity and Trp Derby) will try to take back a tad and try to stalk that one. Down on the inside Bob Black Jack will be used a little to avoid trouble but also will try to track(See SA Derby) from the inside. No one wants to get cooked, so they will be happy to lay off of recapturetheglory who will be hell bent on getting to the front. BB should be no worse than 3 wide in this scenario, but I\'m guessing 2 wide.
I feel recapturetheglory has to be used pretty hard to secure the lead they want, but once he has it will try to slow it down as much as possible. On the backside, I see recapturetheglory being pushed along with BB to his outside doing it easy followed by the trio BBJ, gayego, and CC. I see a gap back to the third group led by the ground saving Tale of Ekati. Once recapturetheglory finds a place to lay down, I see the rest of the pace staying around for a very long long long time. I think only Tale of Ekati (I think his last race was super and Tagg has him ready for his best run 3rd off break) perhaps a trouble free Colonel john(capable of running 12 second furlongs and should love distance) have a chance to impact the pace runners. I\'m betting the pace will not be hot.
My Bet is the pace runners are superior to the closers.
WPS on Tale of Ekati
Box the pace runners with TofE and CJ in ex., tri, super.
Good Luck!
Ronwar,
I am on Tale of Ekati as well, but I would be very surprised to see Recapture the Glory make the lead. Bob\'s Blackjack went 42 and change in his big Sunshine Millions day win. He is the \"inside speed\" and is adding blinkers. I don\'t think they are adding the blinkers to get him to relax. Right to the front with Migliore on board. Don\'t think he can last to even get a piece, but he will ensure a fair to fast pace, IMO.
TOE will be sitting between 5th and 7th, off the lead, down on the inside, saving ground, IMO.
Good luck.
In watching races for 30 years...a speed horse who needs the lead on the outside is screwed! And that\'s one turn or two. If Big Brown is going to win he HAS TO RATE. If he rates a little, he will be 4 wide (minimum) or so on the first turn. If he does any better ground-wise, it will be by burning a hole in the clock early (46?). The idea, propogated by Dutrow, that he will dance out to the lead and take them all the way...at a short price...it is a SCREAMING bet against. If he gets up front into the first turn it is because he is WINGING IT. He will be USED EARLY to make the lead from 20. Going a mile and a quarter. On bad feet off three races. Come on. I feel as if I am burning up my prices by writing this, but you guys must know it\'s true! Pace makes the race indeed...
If he was 5-1, I\'m using him, because at that price you have to use the fastest horse in the race. As the favorite...??? 3-1/5-2? I have a feeling he will go off at 3-1 or higher, because I\'M SURE that other people see what I\'m seeing. That post is DEATH for a horse that wants the lead. Thunder Gulch won from 16 with one of the best rides I\'ve ever seen. Stevens drafting in behind the leaders and saving ground into the first turn.
If he\'s Secreratariat, G_d bless him. Not on my dime... I can only hope Dutrow does what he says and bellies up to the windows. It will be interesting if he doesn\'t and the horse is 4-1... For my money, that is the last mystery left in this race.
HP
Let me clarify:
First, the extra distance BB has to travel is less than 5 feet, so it really is insignificant in and of itself. Second, I was not commenting on BB\'s chances, per se, just the general angst people have about post position, which is, based on past history, way overblown -- just look at where the winners and top three have come from over the past 15 years. Inside, outside, you name it.
Nobody knows how the first 1/4 mile will shape up, other than there are 3-4 horses that will be somewhere in or near the lead group. Desormeaux can likely choose either to grab the lead if he does not want to go wide, or drop in behind.
The larger question is whether BB is going to fire something near his best at 1 1/4 miles. He\'s the fastest horse on both Ragozin and TG. I think his last top was not as severe on Ragozin so he looks like less of a bounce candidate using Rags, but there are always the breeding and hoof questions.
I agree with the earlier poster that BB is the key to analyzing the race because he towers over this bunch based on his last two races. Then there are 5 or 6 horses that should get the distance, have o.k. patterns, and decent numbers. There are five more horses that I can\'t bring myself to toss but are \"third tier\" (slightly slower than the second group and/or somewhat weaker patterns). Then there are 7 clear throw outs based on numbers and pattern and a couple others that I\'m going to toss just on breeding alone.
In betting races, I always employ some kind of hedge, and sometimes multiple hedges. I\'m going to key BB in one \"theory\" of the race and in another throw a bunch of stuff against the wall and hope that it sticks.
Based on ML odds and my ML I do not see a lot of value in the race unless you get at least two of BB, Col John, and Pyro out of the Tri/Super -- which is a distinct possibility.
DP,
I agree with you 1,000%. A small hedge with BB on top or in the middle makes some sense, because you may get bombers in 2,3 or 1,3. The one thing I left out...horses off a big top coming into the Derby...you know how they do. At best, a SMALL hedge is all I will do. No way I will do MULTIPLE hedges and kill my value. Best to you man...HP
Post 12 at GP is tougher than post 20 at CD. At CD,if BB broke and angled over to the rail before the turn, he would run 2 feet further than the rail horse.
All this talk of speed but none of gate quick. Several so called \"speed horses\" are not quick from the gate e.g Gayego who needs to be hard ridden early.FWIW, BB has never been beat from the gate in his three starts.In his first start at GP he outbroke the field but Kent D took a hold and sat off a bit.
If he breaks like usual,he\'ll either clear or sit off BBJ.
Mike
David clearly you know your stuff and the above post is proof. But my point isn\'t the exact groundloss from the post. My bigger point is can he go 22 then 25 for a half in 47. So to have enough in the tank to finish.
I know CJ can run evenly in 47 and change, be in the middle of horses, swing and finish.
And at twice the price of BB........
Fair point, Silver. That\'s why they make them run around the block!
Hi David. As you and anyone else who saw the article in today\'s DRF already knows, there\'s still time to register online for the NHC Tour and participate in the free Oaks/Derby contest, which is offering two spots in the NHC.
Theoretically, the extra distance Brown has to travel is indeed almost exactly five feet, but what I think is much more noteworthy are the quarter cracks on both of Brown\'s two front hooves. It\'s been reported in the racing press, by writers who I\'m guessing never actually checked for themselves, that both quarter cracks are \"healed\", since that\'s what Dutrow told them, so it must be true.
I suppose \"healed\" could mean different things to different people, but I\'m told by an expert who personally observed and assessed the situation today that neither quarter crack has actually healed, but rather both have been patched with acrylic.
The last horse I remember running in the Derby with a quarter crack was Unbridled Song, although he wore bar shoes and Brown, as far as I know, does not wear any special shoes. Of course, patched quarter cracks don\'t mean Brown can\'t possibly win. As the gentleman who started this discussion probably recalls,Touch Gold had a patched quarter crack when he won the Belmont Stakes almost 11 years ago. If Dutrow is actually going all in on Saturday, he really must have at least as much confidence in his farrier as he does in his horse.
There\'s a report on PaceAdvantage that Dutrow is more confident privately than he is in public. I don\'t now how that is possible. LMAO
www.hoofcare.blogspot.com (http://hoofcare.blogspot.com/search?q=big+brown)
Interesting stuff, including on BB\'s hooves.
HP:
Quote from: Dutrow has a horse with a negative number, but he has generated plenty of negative waves (as Donald Sutherland (\"Dirty Dozen\") would say)
That would be \"Kelly\'s Heroes\" - with Sutherland as the Tank Driver (\"always with the negative waves, Moriarty!\")
Sheesh. Amateurs!
every board I\'m on says \"it\'s only 2ft more or 5ft more\" I have never heard this before. ANd now everyone is pulling this out of their bag of \"tricky-ies\" I don\'t buy it, if this was the 5th at belmont, in a 12 horse field, would you buy it? Come on.
Flack think about what you just said. \"A public report about a private conversation\". There is no such thing.
TO will be at this years Derby and has nothing on Dutrow with all of the trash talking coming from his mouth.
This is a one number horse with two bad feet.and a trainer who says he is \"All In\" from the 20 hole.
And people were saying this years Derby was boring.F#ck it I\'m all in and it aint BB Tricky Ricky.
Rich,
Unless you doubt Pythagoras, the math is simple. Assuming that post 20 is 100 feet out from post 1 (generous) and the run-up is 1/4 mile then BB must travel about 3.8 more feet to get to the one path.
The issue isn\'t the geometry, as I see it. Because that calculation assumes BB running in a straight line to the turn (which might actually be faster around, as he could carry more speed into the turn than a rail runner).
Wide post horses only get the straight line if they are unimpeded - which they almost never are, as there are a bunch of horses to their inside trying to get there as well. BB doesn\'t just need to break cleanly and more quickly than the horses inside of him, he\'s got to be fast enough to be able to move in front of them as they approach the turn.
Randy Moss measured all tracks from a sky view on google earth when he started his pace fig project. He said it\'s two feet and he is a pretty sharp guy with minutia.
Mike
I have no idea if BB is fit enough to get 10F, what kind of trip he will get from the 20 post, or whether the glue will fall off the shoes at the 1/8th pole, but IMO this is not a 1 figure horse like many of those that failed before him. IMHO, each of his races demonstrated extraordinary potential when viewed in a more comprehensive way.
His first start wasn\'t super fast, but he came home better than any 2 year old turf horse I have seen with the possible exception of Barbaro. That was probably the reason some people were so hot to purchase him. The figures didn\'t tell the story.
His second start was a lot faster, he stalked a pace that was even faster than the final time, and won under complete wraps while those running with him early were gasping.
His 3rd start speaks for itself.
He\'s probably going to fall apart eventually (maybe even tomorrow). But he\'s been anything but a 1 figure horse to date no matter what the figures say. This horse has shown \"freak\" potential in every start.
I\'m going to have him on some tickets where I think there\'s value and totally off some tickets, but as a fan I\'m hoping he\'s ready for 10F, works out a reasonable trip, and delivers another performance that gives me chills.
Again, that assumes he can clear the field in a straight line prior to the clubhouse turn. I don\'t think he can, and if he does, he\'s gone too fast.
Mon Guy;
\"Again, that assumes he can clear the field in a straight line prior to the clubhouse turn. I don\'t think he can, and if he does, he\'s gone too fast\"
....yes,like he did at Gulfstream.More negative BB stuff, he will wear front bandages for the first time. He ran down twice at GP and slighty burned his right heel, so Tricky is adding them.
Mike
Right! Wrong movie. Sorry.
I wanted to get at least some idea of the new glue ons I heard so much about during the Kee meet,and which Brown will presumably be wearing again tomorrow, so thanks much ajkreider for the link.
I like Randy Moss and while he might pay very close attention to detail, I\'m pretty sure that he can\'t change the laws of arithmetic. There\'s a link to the exact CD dimensions which were the basis for my statement that, again theoretically, the extra distance is almost exactly five feet. I can\'t provide the link because the site is being blocked by Kee, but you should be able to find it pretty easily and do the calculations yourself if the difference is important to you.
Finally, here\'s a link to the DRF NHC Tour article:http://www.drf.com/news/article/94106.html Today\'s contest races are CD5,7,9,10 & 11. Tomorrow it\'s CD4,6,7,8 & 10. Best of luck to everyone who\'s participating.
Mall,
Thanks, 2 feet or 5 feet probably means zip,in reality.Maybe google earth isn\'t as precise as Randy Moss thought.
Mike