My name is Michael Jellish. This is my first post here, but I thought I would chime in my two cents. I used to play professionally but got married, had a kid, etc., and had to get something going for myself that was more suitable for family living. So I started a direct mail company and now I make my living by helping other people gamble their own money. I\'m based in Minneapolis and call Canterbury Park my home track, but I still get out to Gulfstream and Saratoga every year. Aside from that I\'m more or less a casual player, but there aren\'t many people here in Minnesota that know how to read a Racing Form or Brisnet much less a TG pattern. So I am thankful to say that I am still able to pick my spots and make a few nice scores at the local strip just by following the races and doing my homework. For what it is worth, I think this year\'s derby is one of those spots and I plan on making a killing.
This year it\'s simple. You either buy into BB or you don\'t. There is no reason to debate it because no matter which way you look at it there is a ton of money to be made by taking a stand. If you buy-in you have an obvious win key horse for the Tri\'s and Supers that is not going to be 2/5. If not you have a vulnerable favorite that may not even hit the board.
For my part, I was at Gulfstream for the Florida Derby. We all know how the race turned out. But I can tell you that BB galloped out very strong around the turn after the race as if the 1 1/4 won\'t be a problem. Now he did not gallop out and just keep going and going like Barbaro did in \'06, but then again Barbaro went to the half in 47 plus change and BB went in 45 plus, which is a whole different cut of meat. It is well known that BB has had hoof troubles in both front feet. At the time of the Florida Derby the first hoof was almost totally healed, but the second hoof was still pretty bad because it was originally injured in the ALWN1X race. BB also had a slight ankle problem that was related to the hoof at the time of FL Derby. I get all of this from a very reliable source and you will just have to choose to believe me or not. It was reported that BB was being worked on by noted hoof expert Dr. McKinlay, but this is not the case for the second foot. Anyway, this hoof was trimmed back and patched with a special plate, glue epoxy and pulled together with copper clips. This is state-of-the-art hoof care, the best money can buy. It is well known that BB was then fitted with special shoes for training and the FL Derby. Now horses can run and train on a bad hoof, much like a LB can still run and tackle if he is a little gimpy from last week\'s game. But the moral of the story is this. We use TG numbers because they are the best in the business. We look for patterns about how fast a horse has run in the past and try to predict how fast they are going to run today. The horse that ran in the Florida Derby was not 100% healthy nor fully cranked due to his physical issues and the limited opportunities he had to train. We all saw what he did from the 12 post anyway. This was the most impressive race by any 3 year old this year, case closed. So what are we supposed to make of a healthy BB, his overall pattern and that big negative number?
Bounce?
Off?
Pair?
New Top?
Lets look at the circumstances he will face in this race to see if they are favorable or non-favorable for BB. The negatives are he lacks seasoning, has never had dirt kicked back in his face, has never faced this type of field, may have a tough post, trainer has no triple crown experience, etc. These are all good points. The positives are that at this point BB has proven he is by far the fastest horse in the race, he has the hotest jockey in the game, it is a near pace-less derby which should flatter his running style, he has enough tactical speed to secure a decent stalking or front running trip from almost any post, and just about every other horse in the race has some question marks around them... By the way, for anyone that doesn\'t think BB can rate if someone decides to run 45 or 46 to the half, I suggest viewing his ALWN1X 2 races back. He seemed quite comfortable stalking the pace from the 3 path and did not flinch or try to run off when another horse drove up to his inside along the rail. This is not a need the lead type horse.
So we have a lightly raced horse with plenty of rest between starts that is now fit as a fiddle and in the best physical shape he has ever been in that will face a favorable pace scenerio at a distance he should be able to handle. All of this would suggest another pair or even a slight new top. Either one of which will bury this field. Even if BB were to regresses two full points he is still probably fast enough to win anyway.
So rather than looking for a reason to talk myself off of him, I am going to embrace the machine. I am not inclined to play favorites, but I am confident that I am putting my money on what appears to be the best horse who is getting favorable circumstances. Nonetheless, I agree with Rich- there is no way you can take him at 5/2. That\'s just getting the worst of it. Besides-THIS IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY. The best horse doesn\'t always win, we have multi-million dollar pools to work worth and there won\'t be enough Jack Daniels in the world for me if I take 5/2 and lose.
So I am going to key this freak of a horse over two horses that I feel have the best chance to hit the board. CJ\'s merits are obvious, he is going to love the dirt, he is the safest play, but he will also be over-bet. I may have to use him anyway because there is still plenty of room to make money in the tri\'s and supers.
My one sure horse is DOC. His pattern looks to me like he is ready to explode and move forward from his previous top. Also, one of my former gambling colleagues who is still hard at it has privately clocked every Kentucky Derby workout at Churchill since 1993 (except the year he got divorced), and he insists that DOC\'s final work was the best one he has seen this year. This is a guy who got a few of us off Holy Bull in \'94 after telling us that the horse was blowing like a VW Bus after an easy 5F breeze, so I trust his judgement when it comes to horse flesh.
As far as I can tell these two stand out above the others. My plan therefore is to Key BB to win along with either DC or probably CJ (was considering GA but I think he will get the rail) to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the field in half and play them accordingly as primary contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I plan to play heavier on the primary contender combinations than the others, but I will have every combination with BB and my two keys over and under. I will then have my supers as well, which should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play more scratch on the combos involving DC since they will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ. Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will be for 80-250k.
So much for taking 5/2.
Happy hunting at the IRS windows!
Thanks for a great way of looking at betting this possible outcome. Not sure if I totally agree with the keys you\'ve suggested and would like to know what your friend thought of CJ\'s workout, because it looked like the easiest-run bullet I\'ve seen in awhile. It\'s been my thought that he might transform into a very high level horse on the dirt and the workout suggests that may be the case even if it doesn\'t guarantee anything.
M Jellish,
Do you have a contingency plan in place if the track is off?
The more I look at this race the more baffled I get about how to construct a bet.
In most Derbys, there is a legitimate debate about who the best horse is in addition to what direction they all might be heading. In this case, IMO the major debate is which direction BB is likely to go and how extreme the move is likely to be. IMO we already know who the best horse is.
I hated a lot of the other big figure horses that failed in the Derby for a variety of reasons other than a potential performance related bounce. I can\'t find anything in BB\'s PPs to hate. I think all his efforts are legit and perhaps even better than they look on paper. To me, he started out looking like a special horse in his turf debut regardless of the what the speed figures say. He came home like a potential champion that day. He has done nothing since to lead me to believe he\'s anything other than special. He has only enhanced my original view. So when I see his fast figure, it doesn\'t spook me as much as if it came from some mediocrity that jumped up to that level out of nowhere or if it was earned under favorable coditions. I think BB is simply very very good.
All that said, I can see scenarios that get him beat here. THere is some speed inside of him and he\'s way outside. He could easily either get used too hard clearing them into the first turn or get hung wide chasing a fast enough pace to do some damage. Also, since he is a somewhat fragile and inexperienced, he may not be ready for this assignment even though he\'s the best horse.
It\'s really tough to take 5-2 to win.
It\'s really tough to key such a vulnerable horse at 5-2 on top only.
IMO, it makes no sense at all to key him in multiple positions because I think he\'s more of an all or nothing horse than the \"typical\" 5-2 shot.
However, it could easily be financial suicide to toss him out totally when IMHO he\'s so obviously the best horse to date.
What to do????????????????
Alm-
My clocker said that CJ\'s work was nothing short of awesome. He was blowing quite hard afterwards but that is to be expected. He said CJ would probably get a lot out of it and should take to the dirt. Leave off your tickets at your own risk.
As an FYI, my clocker also said that BB blew out very easily this morning and was fighting his rider to do more before and after the work. He said he did seem to abruptly change leads right at the end of his work but that was probably because his rider was very aggressively trying to pull him up. Not sure if that means anything or not.
Iron, I am a terrible slop handicapper. My best play in the slop would probably be to cut all my wagers in 1/2. Would appreciate any advice anyone has that may be better at handicapping the soup.
That aside, I think BB would handle the slop just fine with the Danzig line on top of his pedigree. Adriano, Dennis of Cork and Z Humor would probably move up, though the only one I really like is DC. Pyro ran well in the slop at the BC, but I think he will really be up against it no matter what. He has a tendency to make his move in the stretch, where most Derbys are won on the turn, and by the 1/8th pole the race is usually over unless the early fractions were suicidal enough to really set up the deep closers. I would probably downgrade Gayego and Court Vision as well.
So there you have it. Given my track record in the slop, if it rains go box Gayego, Court Vision and Pyro and you will probably be on your way to cashing a ticket as you pass me on my way to the bar...
Thanks for your insights.
The part about laying out \"X\" amount in bets with targeted range of return of \"Y to Z\" is intriguing to me. While I\'ve tried to measure expected return on individual bets, I\'ve never looked at a race as a whole and said, OK, the minimum I expect to make on the race is a composite 6-1 (as an example) over the total amount invested.
Interesting concept...feels like something I should have been considering long ago.
Ex-pro-- Your guy has the horse changing leads abruptly today after a 3f breeze. Mike Welsch in DRF has has him going on the wrong lead yesterday, but thinks he\'s just \"nitpicking\".
After taking a bad step and bearing in badly right after that in his last race, this horse has been kept mostly out of sight and not stressed with a serious work, so it\'s not surprising he\'s full of himself. I\'m pretty sure he\'s going to be stressed Saturday, and that\'s not nitpicking.
Add to it that all of the speed of the race is inside of him, and that dropping in behind them to gain position will be extraordinarily tough, as there are several others who will be doing the same, this puppy will never see the rail, much less get near it, much less save any ground at any point in the trip...NFW as they say in my household.
I hear you TGJB. But I don\'t think you would argue that BB is the most talented horse of this group so far. My info tells me he is doing better than he ever has and I think this and his talent are enough to get past this field. There is no Hardspun, Street Sense or Curlin in this group as far as I can tell. The second and third choices have yet to run fast as 3 year olds, some of the ones that have run fast have sprint pedigrees and lack sustainable speed, many have not run fast enough to win unless they move way forward, and some of the ones that have run fast did not wow me with their works leading up to race. They may bounce. The filly has never went further than 1 1/16, Smooth Air looked good on paper but spiked a fever and looked lethargic in his work today, etc. I could go on and on. But what the heck, I sure could be wrong about all of this and BB may finish off the board. That\'s exactly what I said in my initial post, and this is exactly what makes this such a great betting race. No matter which side of the fence you are on there is a ton of money to be made.
This may also be nitpicking, but I don\'t think BB took a bad step in the Florida Derby. He has a tendency to bear out, and what I saw in the race was the jock pull hard on the left rein several times to keep BB from veering out. BB then veered suddenly to the inside, as would be expected, and Kent nearly bounced out of the saddle. I think the replay will confirm what I am saying. My clocker said BB changed leads today only after the exercise rider tried to pull him up aggressively, and I don\'t think not changing leads during a routine gallop is any cause for concern. I do not have any first hand knowledge of his final work at Pmm, but I would call 5F in 58 and change a serius work.
That\'s what I love about this game. It\'s all a matter of opinions, translating them into cash, and you don\'t have to be right everytime to be a long-term winner. I\'m going to take the fastest horse and hope for the best.
By the way, I enjoyed the seminar very much. Your figures are tops!
I rememember a speedy horse, Quintons Gold Rush broke from the 20 post, the year Smarty won. I am not saying Quinton was anything close, just that he was a very fast front runner, coming off a speedy Lexington. He broke well that year and was fast enough to get up with the leaders, into the long first turn. But he was still very wide, maybe 5 wide. The step in the Florida Derby was GROSS, IMO.
mjellish,
I sent you a private message
With all due respect, did you ask yourself WHY this horse has a tendency to veer out in the turn? On the backstretch at GP the word was he also has a knee, not just a hoof and ankle problem.
I watched the CD workout and although someone wrote how powerful he looked over the surface, I feel I was viewing a horse in some discomfort and not under a strong hold (view Pyro\'s workout for example) going fairly slowly and sketchily over the ground.
The only point I would add (having said everything else in the seminar) is, as I said after the Fla. Derby, that I have watched that stretch run at least 5 times. He took a bad step a little before the 16th pole-- watch the horse\'s head.
>The only point I would add (having said everything else in the seminar) is, as I said after the Fla. Derby, that I have watched that stretch run at least 5 times. He took a bad step a little before the 16th pole-- watch the horse\'s head.<
I understand your view on every aspect of this horse (including those expressed in the seminar), but I\'m not sure I understand the relevance of this.
Horses take bad steps all the time. It\'s a somewhat random event.
Why would bearing in/out after a bad step be so significant?
I would think a BI/BO would be worse if there was no excuse for the behavior. He continued on well after that and even went out well after the finish. It didn\'t look like he hurt himself at that point or was hurting before/afterwards.
The idea is that the bad step is an effect, not a cause.
The workout Mike Welsch commented on is the same one Ex-pro\'s guy saw him switch leads abruptly at the end of. I was pretty sure he could run 3f that fast even before he did it.
thanks Mike. good stuff. here\'s my initial analysis:
BB\'s post worries me, especially with the main speed 17 through 19. if he\'s asked to do too much early, we could see the same type finish as in the Fla Derby, and that will entail a very slow final 1/8. if Kent can get him 2w or 3w just off a :46.5 or :47 pace, he should carry the speed imo, and he\'s 50% to win. problem is, with the draw, BB might only be 50% to get the trip needed to win. at 2-1 ish, my guess will be that things don\'t go according to plan for the unseasoned colt, and we watch the best horse in the race run 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.
Colonel John is a very tough call - no way around that. the work moves the colt up, but how low do you chase the odds here? can you take 7-2 on a colt that needs a big new top? well, possibly. this colt looks like the quintessential Ky Derby runner.
Z Fortune - perfect post, and a nice looking pattern imo. last might be fast enough to win. a bounce on three weeks is possible, but at 15-1, he\'s worth a use.
Denis of Cork - I\'m stuck with him from futures bets back in Feb, but I still think he has a shot. \'5.5\' 4w first out tells you he can run. \'0.25\' in the Southwest fast enough to put him close here. the bottom of his pedigree is well suited for the 10f. post 16 not great, but expecting a decent pace here. could very well be a back running middle distance horse, but at ml of 20-1, he offers some value imo.
use these four in the top spots, with DoC the key.
Pyro, Visionaire, and Monba round out the tickets.
TGJB Wrote:
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> The idea is that the bad step is an effect, not a
> cause.
>
> The workout Mike Welsch commented on is the same
> one Ex-pro\'s guy saw him switch leads abruptly at
> the end of. I was pretty sure he could run 3f that
> fast even before he did it.
True enough, TGJB, but with the Derby only 2 days away, it doesn\'t look like a physical problem is going to keep BB out of the Derby. And we\'re not betting on whether he holds up for 2 more races or all year, only if he can get through the Derby. So, when talking of possible physical issues, I guess we have to guess whether they\'re going to take their toll in his next race in 2 days. My guess is that they\'re not. They may affect him afterwards though.
That said, I\'m tossing BB, but for other reasons (of which there are plenty).
So,you\'re saying he bounces off the moon fig-wise or you think the horse is
unsound?
So,you\'re saying he bounces off the moon fig-wise or you think the horse is
unsound?
Three cheers.Second the motion!The Essence speaks no more loudly than in the moment.R Dutrow,son of R Dutrow Senior who honed his training skills with all time
winning horsemen.I hope for BB,racing and all alike the elder statesmen\'s essence
has passed to the son.
Do you feel your namesake will move forwardly if the surface becomes off with
consideration towards Unbridled?
Its always good to toss a favorite and cash with higher priced horses. Before we get too excited upon Big Brown\'s lead changes from his last workout lets consider all that he \"displayed\" in that workout.
Dutrow says the horse\'s feet are cold and he\'s so excited, I believe him.
The work was :35 and 2. The jock never moved her hands and sat high in the saddle. She never urged BJB in any manner. Before his break off he was bucking and throwing his head, after the workout he was doing the same. Coming off the turn there was as deft and pretty a lead change to get to his left lead as you\'re ever going to see. Past the wire, almost on the turn, there was a lead change back to his right lead while being reined in. You could say that changing leads at that juncture was due to an \"issue\". You could also say BJB \"right leads\" when slowing down under restraint or that he was preparing to go right lead to handle the clubhouse turn because he wanted a lot more. The bucking and playing post workout was the best evidence to me.
:mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Alm-
>
> My clocker said that CJ\'s work was nothing short
> of awesome. He was blowing quite hard afterwards
> but that is to be expected. He said CJ would
> probably get a lot out of it and should take to
> the dirt. Leave off your tickets at your own
> risk.
>
> As an FYI, my clocker also said that BB blew out
> very easily this morning and was fighting his
> rider to do more before and after the work. He
> said he did seem to abruptly change leads right at
> the end of his work but that was probably because
> his rider was very aggressively trying to pull him
> up. Not sure if that means anything or not.
>
> Iron, I am a terrible slop handicapper. My best
> play in the slop would probably be to cut all my
> wagers in 1/2. Would appreciate any advice anyone
> has that may be better at handicapping the soup.
>
> That aside, I think BB would handle the slop just
> fine with the Danzig line on top of his pedigree.
> Adriano, Dennis of Cork and Z Humor would probably
> move up, though the only one I really like is DC.
> Pyro ran well in the slop at the BC, but I think
> he will really be up against it no matter what.
> He has a tendency to make his move in the stretch,
> where most Derbys are won on the turn, and by the
> 1/8th pole the race is usually over unless the
> early fractions were suicidal enough to really set
> up the deep closers. I would probably downgrade
> Gayego and Court Vision as well.
>
> So there you have it. Given my track record in
> the slop, if it rains go box Gayego, Court Vision
> and Pyro and you will probably be on your way to
> cashing a ticket as you pass me on my way to the
> bar...
Jerry,
I\'m not sure what Brown\'s strategy is, but of one thing I\'m certain. If he wants to he can kiss these horses goodbye 1 furlong out of the gate. He can have the rail first turn and if its slop I expect him to. He has the ability to make the race stress free and turn it merely into a test of whether he can get the distance.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ex-pro-- Your guy has the horse changing leads
> abruptly today after a 3f breeze. Mike Welsch in
> DRF has has him going on the wrong lead yesterday,
> but thinks he\'s just \"nitpicking\".
>
> After taking a bad step and bearing in badly right
> after that in his last race, this horse has been
> kept mostly out of sight and not stressed with a
> serious work, so it\'s not surprising he\'s full of
> himself. I\'m pretty sure he\'s going to be stressed
> Saturday, and that\'s not nitpicking.
Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Do you feel your namesake will move forwardly if
> the surface becomes off with
> consideration towards Unbridled?
I think she\'ll be fine if the track is off. But I\'m not expecting it to be off. Weather.com says:
Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. High 72F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. 20% chance of precipitation.
In today\'s NY Post, Tricky says he expects BB to go off at 8/5.
Personally, I do not see any way for BB to clear the field by the clubhouse turn. However, he is damned if he does, damned if he doesn\'t. If he does, he will probably run the 1/2 faster than Songandaprayer. If he doesn\'t, I expect him to be 4-5W.
Perhaps I am missing something here, but I\'m not seeing a fast pace or 4-5w trip for BB. I just don\'t see anyone in the field that truly looks fast. Where are the need the lead horses inside BB?
Does Gayego need the lead? Are his connections confident enough in his pedigree to try take them wire-wire? ?
Is Recapture the Glory truly fast? This guy ran 48.6 to the half in the Illinois Derby on a day when 4000 claimers went 48.4 in another route. He is a solid one paced runner that will probably try to lay down steady 12 and change furlongs and bears watching in races down the line, but not on Sat.
Is Cowboy Cal truly fast? Is he going to go 45 and change coming out of Turf routes and the Poly race?
Have the connections of BBJ hinted about trying to go to try to go wire-to-wire? If so why didn\'t they take the 2 hole when they could have? They are going to try to ration out this colt\'s speed.
Tale of Ekati has enough speed to be up front early, but are his connections going to send him after chasing War Pass and watching their colt stagger home his final 3/8ths in 40 sec?
Where the Spanish Chestnuts, Songandaprayer, Quintons Gold Rush, Lion Heart, Sinister Minister, Balto Star, Keyed Entry...
There is no nead the lead type in this derby. It is near paceless. Closest thing to it is Cowboy Cal. So how does BB get hung out 4-5 wide on the first turn?
Does Gayego need the lead?
Oh yeah,
Happy Oaks Day!!!!!!!!
mjellish,
You echo all of my points. I don\'t see that type of speed in this race. I think the only pacesetter who actually wants the lead, outside of BB is recapturetheglory. I think he will be pushed hard to get it. I think everyone else wants to track, ration their speed and hope BB doesn\'t run his race. I do not see any other trainer/owner saying to the jock, get to the front and take\'em as far as you can go except for the recapturetheglory connections.
I agree. There are no need the lead types, but there are a bunch of stalker/speed types. Among them, Bob Black Jack has shown sprint speed (and gets B\'s on). They are all going to have the same thing in mind as Desormeaux. They are going to want to save some ground and get position. So they are all likely to get at least mildly aggressive trying. Given that they are all inside BB, I think outsprinting them all is very likely to translate into a quick 1st quarter even though it\'s well within his range to do so. IMO, the more likely scenario is trying to sit off the first flight initially unless a stalking position falls into his lap. Sitting off the first flight will probably find him 2-3 wide.
I suscribe to a pace program, the last 4 horses show extreme pace with Big quiren(sp?) numbers and high pace fig #\'s to the 6f. There is mucho sp in this race, the way I see it. It won\'t be easy for anyone on or close to the speed especially BBJ and the last 4 in the race.
I don\'t see it that way but to each his own. Other than BB, I think Cowboy Cal is the most likely front runner just because of his style - and he is not that fast.
Pace figures are made in a variety of ways. Some try to estimate if the pace was fast or slow relative to the final time, some measure the early speed of the horses, still others measure the velocity for various calls.
If a figure is measuring the pace of a race relative to its final time in a route, the figure might suggest the pace was fast but it could still be slow relative to the types of pace you would see in shorter distances. Gayego is coming out of a fast paced race, but the absolute times were not scorching. (I hope that makes sense)
When having these types of conversations, it\'s important to know what the other people are looking at.
IMHO, a number of the speedy types in the Derby are coming out of fast paced races, but the absolute times they ran adjusted for track speed etc... were not particularly fast when you think in terms of real one dimensional speed horses.
I believe Big Brown and Bob Black Jack are the 2 fastest horses. Regardless of the pace of his last couple, BBJ has high quality sprint speed if he wants to use it. Tale of Ekati also has some good speed, but I don\'t expect him to use it because of his running style and because chasing War Pass demonstrated quite clearly that he will stagger home at 10F if he tries that again.
Look at the Thoro-Graph Race Shapes for a good indication of pure speed.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
My plan therefore is to Key BB to win
> along with either DC or probably CJ (was
> considering GA but I think he will get the rail)
> to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the
> field in half and play them accordingly as primary
> contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I
> plan to play heavier on the primary contender
> combinations than the others, but I will have
> every combination with BB and my two keys over and
> under. I will then have my supers as well, which
> should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real
> bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play
> more scratch on the combos involving DC since they
> will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ.
> Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will
> be for 80-250k.
>
> So much for taking 5/2.
>
> Happy hunting at the IRS windows!
Congrats on what was surely a large day!
I\'m guessing Jimbo and Michael may have hit the super, since they liked DOC and TOE, and may not have thrown out BB.
I hit for a cool 334,000 before taxes, 224,000 after taxes. I have the IRS paperwork to prove it. Laid out the bet just I said I was going to, Keyed BB with DC & CJ over and under the other main contenders in the TRI\'s and Supers with All on the bottom.
Jerry, I upped my TRI bet on the BB/EB/DC and BB/DC/EB in part because of your numbers and seminar.
All I can say is what a glorious day!
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
My plan therefore is to Key BB to win
> along with either DC or probably CJ (was
> considering GA but I think he will get the rail)
> to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the
> field in half and play them accordingly as primary
> contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I
> plan to play heavier on the primary contender
> combinations than the others, but I will have
> every combination with BB and my two keys over and
> under. I will then have my supers as well, which
> should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real
> bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play
> more scratch on the combos involving DC since they
> will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ.
> Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will
> be for 80-250k.
>
> So much for taking 5/2.
>
> Happy hunting at the IRS windows!
Congrats on what was surely a large day!
Beautiful.
Great insight on Big Brown.You laid it all out and called your shot.
Congrats
Yes, I agree mr. jellish called his shot. He got them this time.
Silver, agree with your conclusion. Keeneland and Turfway form is not a good barometer, mr jellish had those Keeneland horses wheeled however.
On second thought...I\'ve never understood these \"shotgun\" guys. You never hit the quail shooting at the whole covey.
Can anyone really decipher this mishmash?
Over/Under is first and second and there\'s lots of hesitancy with Denis of Cork. Jerry, you\'re the host Chop Buster, take this on:
As far as I can tell these two stand out above the others. My plan therefore is to Key BB to win along with either DC or probably CJ (was considering GA but I think he will get the rail) to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the field in half and play them accordingly as primary contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I plan to play heavier on the primary contender combinations than the others, but I will have every combination with BB and my two keys over and under. I will then have my supers as well, which should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play more scratch on the combos involving DC since they will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ. Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will be for 80-250k.[/color]
I don\'t think so,
Stick around for the Preakness mr. jellish and pour it in again.
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beautiful.
>
> Great insight on Big Brown.You laid it all out and
> called your shot.
>
> Congrats
Hey,
Anyone who really knows this game and has done it for a living for an extended period of time will also know that it would have been as easy for me to get this one wrong as I did right. I had all my eggs in one basket, so to speak. Next year I may do the same and not cash a ticket. So please don\'t anyone accuse me of trying to sound like a know-it-all. I have too much respect for my fellow horse players and for everyone that posts on this board, especially the regulars. The idea, in my opinion, of this board is for us to share knowledge and insight -when willing- about this game and Thoro-Graph figs. Hopefully we can all learn and therefore get better along the way. This time I happened to get this one right, in fact very right, but so what...
As far as the mismash goes, I don\'t know what more you would expect me to post. I\'m never going to make a post online, ever, anywhere, with a bet all laid out for just everyone to see. I shared my thoughts because many of you shared yours, and I appreciated them. So I decided to chime in my two cents as well. I think I made it clear enough that I was keying BB in first, along with either DC or CJ to hit the board, and then grouping the rest of the field into contenders and non-contenders. The contenders I chose were EB,MON,TE,CV,VI,PY and ZF, so I played those over and under in the TRI with CJ and DC for big money, and also in the super with ALL. I also played the tickets that had CJ and PY on them in the super only because these were bound to be vastly underlaid in the TRI. I also played the non-contenders in more or less the same way but in the Supers only. These were more or less saver bets that would pay enough anyway. So the bet was basically this: If I am dead right about some of these I going to hit a big TRI plus the Super, and if some longshot one-paced wonder hits the board I will at least hit the super and that will pay enough anyway. I also played all the DC combos for more $ ratio wise than the ones involving CJ because I rated both of these horses near even and figured the DC combos would pay more, so that is where I wanted my money to be.
So with all of this being said this is the last thing I have to say about anyone that thinks I\'m BS\'ing about this. I have all the IRS paperwork to prove the above. I should very shortly also have a photo from Canterbury Park\'s marketing department that will show me and my friends who came along for the ride sitting in a private room with all the CASH spread out in front of us. It was an awesome day! So don\'t waste anyone elses time and space on this board. Send me a private message along with your email address and I will personaly send you a scan of my IRS paperwork and the photo (provided I receive the photo). Case closed.
As an aside, in addition to putting a huge amount of CASH in all of my friends hands and changing a few people\'s lives, I made a very nice score for my family and I. Most everyone in my group offered me a \"tip\" or piece of their winnings, which is the class thing to do. But in addition to refusing all \"tips\", I also threw done for 4 bottles of nice bubbly as this is ALSO the class thing to do when you make a big score. I won plenty for myself anyway.
Happy Hunting,
MJ
This is a tough game and I am fortunate that it all came together for me in this case.
Regards,
-Chuckles said:
Yes, I agree mr. jellish called his shot. He got them this time.
Silver, agree with your conclusion. Keeneland and Turfway form is not a good barometer, mr jellish had those Keeneland horses wheeled however.
On second thought...I\'ve never understood these \"shotgun\" guys. You never hit the quail shooting at the whole covey.
Can anyone really decipher this mishmash?
Over/Under is first and second and there\'s lots of hesitancy with Denis of Cork. Jerry, you\'re the host Chop Buster, take this on:
As far as I can tell these two stand out above the others. My plan therefore is to Key BB to win along with either DC or probably CJ (was considering GA but I think he will get the rail) to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the field in half and play them accordingly as primary contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I plan to play heavier on the primary contender combinations than the others, but I will have every combination with BB and my two keys over and under. I will then have my supers as well, which should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play more scratch on the combos involving DC since they will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ. Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will be for 80-250k.
I don\'t think so,
Stick around for the Preakness mr. jellish and pour it in again.
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beautiful.
>
> Great insight on Big Brown.You laid it all out and
> called your shot.
>
> Congrats
After a re-read will reluctantly give you credit for the cash. Many of us here didn\'t need a clocker friend to steer us in the right direction.
I think you cashed in the neighborhood of 35-1, though Jerry may tell you otherwise.
I had 69-1 on the perfecta with a substantially smaller investment.
Congrats, but we all definitely want you and Dpatent in the pools next time. Don\'t forget to come back now, ya hear?
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey,
>
> Anyone who really knows this game and has done it
> for a living for an extended period of time will
> also know that it would have been as easy for me
> to get this one wrong as I did right. I had all
> my eggs in one basket, so to speak. Next year I
> may do the same and not cash a ticket. So please
> don\'t anyone accuse me of trying to sound like a
> know-it-all. I have too much respect for my
> fellow horse players and for everyone that posts
> on this board, especially the regulars. The idea,
> in my opinion, of this board is for us to share
> knowledge and insight -when willing- about this
> game and Thoro-Graph figs. Hopefully we can all
> learn and therefore get better along the way.
> This time I happened to get this one right, in
> fact very right, but so what...
>
> As far as the mismash goes, I don\'t know what more
> you would expect me to post. I\'m never going to
> make a post online, ever, anywhere, with a bet all
> laid out for just everyone to see. I shared my
> thoughts because many of you shared yours, and I
> appreciated them. So I decided to chime in my two
> cents as well. I think I made it clear enough
> that I was keying BB in first, along with either
> DC or CJ to hit the board, and then grouping the
> rest of the field into contenders and
> non-contenders. The contenders I chose were
> EB,MON,TE,CV,VI,PY and ZF, so I played those over
> and under in the TRI with CJ and DC for big money,
> and also in the super with ALL. I also played the
> tickets that had CJ and PY on them in the super
> only because these were bound to be vastly
> underlaid in the TRI. I also played the
> non-contenders in more or less the same way but in
> the Supers only. These were more or less saver
> bets that would pay enough anyway. So the bet was
> basically this: If I am dead right about some of
> these I going to hit a big TRI plus the Super, and
> if some longshot one-paced wonder hits the board I
> will at least hit the super and that will pay
> enough anyway. I also played all the DC combos
> for more $ ratio wise than the ones involving CJ
> because I rated both of these horses near even and
> figured the DC combos would pay more, so that is
> where I wanted my money to be.
>
> So with all of this being said this is the last
> thing I have to say about anyone that thinks I\'m
> BS\'ing about this. I have all the IRS paperwork
> to prove the above. I should very shortly also
> have a photo from Canterbury Park\'s marketing
> department that will show me and my friends who
> came along for the ride sitting in a private room
> with all the CASH spread out in front of us. It
> was an awesome day! So don\'t waste anyone elses
> time and space on this board. Send me a private
> message along with your email address and I will
> personaly send you a scan of my IRS paperwork and
> the photo (provided I receive the photo). Case
> closed.
>
> As an aside, in addition to putting a huge amount
> of CASH in all of my friends hands and changing a
> few people\'s lives, I made a very nice score for
> my family and I. Most everyone in my group
> offered me a \"tip\" or piece of their winnings,
> which is the class thing to do. But in addition
> to refusing all \"tips\", I also threw done for 4
> bottles of nice bubbly as this is ALSO the class
> thing to do when you make a big score. I won
> plenty for myself anyway.
>
> Happy Hunting,
>
> MJ
>
> This is a tough game and I am fortunate that it
> all came together for me in this case.
>
> Regards,
>
>
> -Chuckles said:
> Yes, I agree mr. jellish called his shot. He got
> them this time.
>
>
> Silver, agree with your conclusion. Keeneland and
> Turfway form is not a good barometer, mr jellish
> had those Keeneland horses wheeled however.
>
> On second thought...I\'ve never understood these
> \"shotgun\" guys. You never hit the quail shooting
> at the whole covey.
>
> Can anyone really decipher this mishmash?
>
> Over/Under is first and second and there\'s lots of
> hesitancy with Denis of Cork. Jerry, you\'re the
> host Chop Buster, take this on:
>
> As far as I can tell these two stand out above the
> others. My plan therefore is to Key BB to win
> along with either DC or probably CJ (was
> considering GA but I think he will get the rail)
> to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the
> field in half and play them accordingly as primary
> contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I
> plan to play heavier on the primary contender
> combinations than the others, but I will have
> every combination with BB and my two keys over and
> under. I will then have my supers as well, which
> should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real
> bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play
> more scratch on the combos involving DC since they
> will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ.
> Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will
> be for 80-250k.
>
> I don\'t think so,
>
> Stick around for the Preakness mr. jellish and
> pour it in again.
>
> big18741 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Beautiful.
> >
> > Great insight on Big Brown.You laid it all out
> and
> > called your shot.
> >
> > Congrats
CTC-- you truly are acting like an asshole, knock it off. I don\'t know what return Jellish got but I\'ll take him at his word, he has crediblity given the way he has acted. Meanwhile, you are now going to claim your play on the Derby was one exacta, cold? You listed what, 9 horses as uses in exotics? You didn\'t play tris, supers, win bets, or any other exactas? Nonsense.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As an aside, in addition to putting a huge amount
> of CASH in all of my friends hands and changing a
> few people\'s lives, I made a very nice score for
> my family and I. Most everyone in my group
> offered me a \"tip\" or piece of their winnings,
> which is the class thing to do. But in addition
> to refusing all \"tips\", I also threw done for 4
> bottles of nice bubbly as this is ALSO the class
> thing to do when you make a big score. I won
> plenty for myself anyway.
>
> Happy Hunting,
>
> MJ
>
> This is a tough game and I am fortunate that it
> all came together for me in this case.
MJ:
My hat is off to you, sir.
Not so much for a very large score, but for the acknowledgment of \"friends\"
and \"family\", and for being humble enough to acknowledge the toughness of the
game and the role that luck plays in having success at it.
Jellish, congrats on your called shot and hit.
We don\'t need to get carried away however. If a person bets the favorite from post 20 coming off a race where he drifted all over the track and then shows up with front bandages for the first time, you have to tip your hat. Not my style. I\'d rather toss that horse out and go for the gusto. If BB had fell apart with bad feet or bad legs or a bad trip or what-have-you and Giacomo-boxcars came in, i\'d feel pretty silly holding chalk tickets.
I do admire the conviction. Make a pick, bet your money and either win or lose. That\'s the way its done.
Not my style to bet on the fave from post 20, but if its your style and it works for you, than its the right thing. There\'s no one way to beat this game, you gotta do what works for you.
Imallin--
I think that the Brilliance! of MJ\'s bet was the belief--supported by
information from an on track observer that he trusted-- that Denis of Cork
would be part of the number.
By \"keying\" DoC MJ was able to enjoy some \"gusto\" even with the chalk on top.
I think another aspect that is important to remember is the consequences of singling the favorite only in the top position. I often get castigated on this board for that strategy, but, if you play the favorite exclusively singled on top, you can get yourself some very generous payments under the right circumstances. The best place to do this is Southern California. All you need is a large field, a large pool, a reasonable take, and a heavy favorite which you feel is exceptionally strong. What happens is that a lot of money goes into the pool on the heavy favorite in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th positions and that money is as up for grabs as money bet on other horses. All one needs to do is review charts from SoCal over a period of time (especially from before the advent of the dime supers) and you will see how the strong favorite on top can still lead to outsized super payoffs. This derby was a good example of this principle. Of course, you only want to do this in races where you believe the strong favorite has an exceptionally strong chance of winning. More times than not, the favorite is too vulnerable to employ such a strategy. The big debate in THIS derby (as highlighted by Jellish\'s first post) was whether or not Big Brown was exceptionally strong or vulnerable. Once you took a position that he was exceptionally strong, in effect your trifectas turn into exactas and your superfectas turn into trifectas and, with some good long priced keys, you can spread quite a bit. I think the fact that no dime supers were allowed really boosted the price of this year\'s super. Imagine how many people would have hit it if they could have spread more underneath for only 10 cents.
Very good points SCM2.
The dime super really hurts large players who can afford to pump thousands of dollars into the bet. The dime super makes the bet 10 times easier to hit, thus, it is ten times more likely to be close to market value.
Also, you have another great point about keying a favorite on top. I employ this strategy quite often in So Cal. The best time to do this is if you have a horse that\'s over even money but less than 5-2. You can key that horse on top in pick 3\'s and pick 4s and really crush it, as this \'lukewarm\' horse isn\'t \'everyone\'s single\'
The question to ask about a favorite is \"is this horse everyone else\'s single\". If you can make a case there\'s another potential single in a pick 4 or pick 6, you can still make money as long as the entire world isn\'t singling the same horse.