Seven of them with a 3 or more point new top in their last race:
TALE OF EKATI 4.5 four weeks
GAYEGO 4.0 three weeks
MONBA 3.75 three weeks
BIG BROWN 4.5 five weeks
COURT VISION 3.5 four weeks
Z FORTUNE 3.0 three weeks
SMOOTH AIR 4.0 five weeks
Guessing right on all of these a big piece to the puzzle:
Tossing the Wood horses.Looked a lot like the BOB and JOHN Wood fast early-slow late on a crappy track.Only Jazil had a fast closing fraction in that one.Nothing out of this Wood finished with any energy.
Getting rid of the Arkansas horses on three weeks.Gayego bore out in both routes and now has to chase better and faster than Tres Borrachos.Banking on the Asmussen history and his quotes for Z Fortune to off-X after wide wide strong race-now short rest.
TAP on 3 weeks gets tossed.
Using both FLA horses on 5 weeks rest if they have a good last 3 days.
Thoughts?
Agree and Disagree.
Why isn\'t Court Vision another Jazil? Agree the finish lacked energy and also want to point out that he NEEDS TO QUIT being so wide on the far turn. Garrett needs to know this if he ever wants to win the Derby.
Gasmussen and Mr Z. may not move forward but he also may not bounce. The 51 work however may mean he is a little exhausted to say the least. So probably leaning your way.
Smooth Air sick for a couple of days, light on stamina. Not sure I can go there.
I know he\'s not in the race, but don\'t forget Lil E Tee...he also came out of a tough Ark Derby and won the big one on 3 weeks rest. Pine Bluff who beat him probably bounced in the Derby...came back in the Preakness.
Not all 3 point or more new tops are the same.
One important issue is whether or not a horse has previously reacted. Some of the horses you mention have already reacted and shown some established level. Others are still in search of what their level is. Also, is the jump up the type you would expect a horse of the relevant age and experience to make or is it an unusual jump of a more isolated nature?
One should also take into consideration if a horse already has a history of bouncing off new tops (Z Fortune?) or of staying at the new-found level for a while (Smooth Air?).
Additionally, one needs to consider the absolute effort of the new top. It might be different if the new top was a jump from a zero to a -3 versus a jump that is from 18 to 15. A minus 3 shuold knock out everybody except the superfreaks. A 15 should not knock out anybody. Obviously, i am using an exaggerated example here, but it gives you the idea of what you need to consider.
I would not consider how the top was earned in determining whether or not to give the bounce. For example, tossing jump up horses out of the Wood because of how the race was run is dangerous. I am not saying that one should not consider how the race was run -- it is important information; I am only saying it is not so relevant in determing whether or not to give a bounce.
Rest is obviously a hugely important factor when considering bounce issues. Another is what sort of spacing or race history is the effort fitting into? Was it the end of a long progression or new recent development?
Also, why only consider jump ups of 3 points or more? Recapturetheglory and Anak Nakal both had jumps of 2.75 in their last race and Colonel John jumped 2.25 in his last race. A lot of the same considerations you are evaluating could apply to them as well.
Having said all this, I am, regretfully, leaning toward believing that Big Brown is a special case. I hate to bet the favorite, but, to me, it is looking extremely hard to go against him. I am heartened by the fact that there does appear to be enormous stores of value available for the underside of the ticket.
Finally, one last comment, a lot of horses in this derby and in prior derbies have already had a big jump up in their penultimate prep. Since it was penultimate, the ultimate prep (e.g. the bounce in a lot of cases) is already on the sheet. (see Denis of Cork and Visionaire). These examples may help a little.