To review so far:
Using: Adriano, Colonel John.
Tossing: Big Brown, Z Fortune, Eight Belles, Gayego, Cool Coal Man
Note: These are top spot uses and tosses only. I will only bet win, P3, P4
and Oaks/Derby double.
Next subjects: The Tagg Team
Big Truck--on the Downey Profile list of graded earnings, currently listed at
#20 with Salute the Sarge (doubtful Derby starter)and BehindattheBar (possible
Derby starter) on the list in front of him, so it looks to be certain that BT
will have enough gelt to get into the Derby gate. That being said, this one (a)
appears to be too slow off of his TGs to contend, (b) has only had an impact
when facing inferior competition at Tampa and v NYB SRs and (c) is sired by a
young stallion who was strictly a sprinter. A toss.
Tale of Ekati-- One of a few who jumped forward radically in his final prep.
In days of the not so distant past, before the whole notion of Derby pattern
fabrication (also known as tanking in the final prep) became fashionable, a
winner of the Wood Memorial would almost automatically be one of the wagering
favorites for the Derby. I guess the thinking is that TOE could go off at odds
between 12/1-20/1, a huge price for a Wood winner.
Trainer Barclay Tagg was on a mega roll late last Summer into Fall, but as usual
there seem to be barn wide reactions to these hot streaks-- Tagg\'s last 90 day
win percentage on a 102 start sample is a mere 11% (and to air a pet peeve of
mine, I must note that Tagg\'s \"TG Figure Based\" stat for the same 90 days is 53
starts with 30% of these runners \"topping\" and 36% \"pairing\") (??*&!?).
It has been fun to watch and listen to Jimbo try to sweat the TG braintrust
on the ground loss calculation in the Wood; strangely, you get the idea Jimbo
would like to convince himself that TOE ran a \"1\" or \"1+\" rather than the zero
which TG gave-- kind of like pattern fabrication by a handicapper, looking to
decrease the \"Spaldeen\" factor.
I am not really impressed by this one. Someone had to go by the ouchy and hard
pressed War Pass in the Wood, and the departed Prado gave this one a good trip
in terms of pace positioning. I like to think that if the Wood was run at the
Derby distance of 10 furlongs, Court Vision would have gone by TOE in the final
1/8th mile.
Despite my knocks on TOE, and the possibility of a bounce, I feel compelled to
use him. Again, I doubt you will find any Wood winner of the past who has gone
off at the kind of odds that will be offered on TOE in the Derby.
Update: (Alphabetical Now)
Use: Adriano, Colonel John, Tale of Ekati.
Toss: Big Brown, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Eight Belles, Gayego, Z Fortune.
Diamond James Richie,
You can Never be 100% certain in this game, but I must warn you. I do not believe that Adriano is \"getting over\" Terra Firma. All of his Churchill works are mediocre at best and yesterday on a very glib strip, he could not get by his work mate. On that strip, you can\'t even project that his workmate was tough due to a good work. (They went in 1:00:4) I also Do Not like the way Motion is sounding. He was reluctant to come and is not sounding very optimistic. He\'s gonna be outta sight a quarter mile in on a pace that is not overbearing. Oh, did I mention the horse is slow?
It may be he\'s just not handling Churchill Downs, but thats \"good enough for government work.\"
Yo-Adrian-o....where are you?
p.s. Don\'t toss my filly Richie. Don\'t you dare toss my filly!
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To review so far:
>
> Using: Adriano, Colonel John.
>
> Tossing: Big Brown, Z Fortune, Eight Belles,
> Gayego, Cool Coal Man
>
> Note: These are top spot uses and tosses only. I
> will only bet win, P3, P4
> and Oaks/Derby double.
>
> Next subjects: The Tagg Team
>
> Big Truck--on the Downey Profile list of graded
> earnings, currently listed at
> #20 with Salute the Sarge (doubtful Derby
> starter)and BehindattheBar (possible
> Derby starter) on the list in front of him, so it
> looks to be certain that BT
> will have enough gelt to get into the Derby gate.
> That being said, this one (a)
> appears to be too slow off of his TGs to contend,
> (b) has only had an impact
> when facing inferior competition at Tampa and v
> NYB SRs and (c) is sired by a
> young stallion who was strictly a sprinter. A
> toss.
>
> Tale of Ekati-- One of a few who jumped forward
> radically in his final prep.
> In days of the not so distant past, before the
> whole notion of Derby pattern
> fabrication (also known as tanking in the final
> prep) became fashionable, a
> winner of the Wood Memorial would almost
> automatically be one of the wagering
> favorites for the Derby. I guess the thinking is
> that TOE could go off at odds
> between 12/1-20/1, a huge price for a Wood
> winner.
>
> Trainer Barclay Tagg was on a mega roll late last
> Summer into Fall, but as usual
> there seem to be barn wide reactions to these hot
> streaks-- Tagg\'s last 90 day
> win percentage on a 102 start sample is a mere 11%
> (and to air a pet peeve of
> mine, I must note that Tagg\'s \"TG Figure Based\"
> stat for the same 90 days is 53
> starts with 30% of these runners \"topping\" and 36%
> \"pairing\") (??*&!?).
>
> It has been fun to watch and listen to Jimbo try
> to sweat the TG braintrust
> on the ground loss calculation in the Wood;
> strangely, you get the idea Jimbo
> would like to convince himself that TOE ran a \"1\"
> or \"1+\" rather than the zero
> which TG gave-- kind of like pattern fabrication
> by a handicapper, looking to
> decrease the \"Spaldeen\" factor.
>
> I am not really impressed by this one. Someone had
> to go by the ouchy and hard
> pressed War Pass in the Wood, and the departed
> Prado gave this one a good trip
> in terms of pace positioning. I like to think that
> if the Wood was run at the
> Derby distance of 10 furlongs, Court Vision would
> have gone by TOE in the final
> 1/8th mile.
>
> Despite my knocks on TOE, and the possibility of a
> bounce, I feel compelled to
> use him. Again, I doubt you will find any Wood
> winner of the past who has gone
> off at the kind of odds that will be offered on
> TOE in the Derby.
>
> Update: (Alphabetical Now)
>
> Use: Adriano, Colonel John, Tale of Ekati.
>
> Toss: Big Brown, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Eight
> Belles, Gayego, Z Fortune.
Chuckteaugay:
Looking at this colt\'s PPs/running style what in the world makes you think he
would be sharp in the morning?
Now take out your Derby/ Oaks TG advance sheets (stop laughing Jerry). Draw a
line through his FOY where he broke from Death Valley, post 12, and was
troubled on the first turn. Having drawn such a line through the FOY, you see
nice development in terms of his TG\'s and a number in the synthetic Lane\'s End
which makes him a contender in this race at expected odds of 20/1 or so.
I am not at all swayed by the fact that YO Adriano\'s sire AP Chucky has recently
been upgraded to \"chef de race\" status.
If I read the TGs and the breeding correctly, this one goes by your filly and
your NYSBSR in the lane like a freight train goes by a hobo.
Riva Richiebee
Here are my negatives on Adriano & why I will let him beat me if he wins:
You\'ve got the breeding, but I can\'t tell from the PPs what he\'ll do on Saturday. I agree on drawing the line through the FOY, but now I\'m left with no dirt races. He still has to improve another 2-3 points to win this off a new top.
So I have a horse with no useable dirt numbers who is coming out of a race I can only label as negative key. The only horse to do anything out of that race is Derby Trial winner Macho Again-who may have hated the surface in the Lane\'s End and finished 7th after a prior win on dirt. The rest of the field in finish order & their next race: 2-7th BG, 3-8th BG, 4-4 Lex, 5-3rd Alw, 6-couldn\'t find a next race, 7-1st DT, 8-8th DT, 9-4 & 6 in MSWs, last 2 couldn\'t find another race. The last race this bad was the ultimate negative key race-the Delta Downs Jackpot (DH Z Humor/Turf War) that produced a continuous string of losers early this year
Toppled,
Granting that Adriano broke from \"Death Valley\" in the Fountain of Youth, he did not encounter the type of trouble to get beaten as badly as he did if he was a horse with some dirt talent. (By the way, Big Brown broke from that post too and ran the best race of the year.) Adriano\'s Hallandale race did not inure to his benefit.
Adriano looked good coming down Turfway\'s rubber stretch. It just appears both that the bunch didn\'t relish running on old tires and that they were not top flight horses.
Adriano has worked pretty well on the dirt at Palm Meadows. He\'s not working well at Churchill and in my opinion and I\'m not gonna factor his Lane\'s End as a race in a graph indicating where he is going.
I also don\'t like his tail female pedigree nor the vibes I\'m getting from the connections. He reminds me very much of \"Broken Vow\" without the dirt ability.
The easiest of tosses with money saved for the viable combinations.
By the way Toppled, I agree completely with your analysis of Z Fortune\'s past workouts and the fact they are being easy with him with the Ark spacing. I\'m not as optimistic about him winning, but I think he\'ll run a very good race at very nice odds.
Ltoppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here are my negatives on Adriano & why I will let
> him beat me if he wins:
> You\'ve got the breeding, but I can\'t tell from the
> PPs what he\'ll do on Saturday. I agree on drawing
> the line through the FOY, but now I\'m left with no
> dirt races. He still has to improve another 2-3
> points to win this off a new top.
> So I have a horse with no useable dirt numbers who
> is coming out of a race I can only label as
> negative key. The only horse to do anything out
> of that race is Derby Trial winner Macho Again-who
> may have hated the surface in the Lane\'s End and
> finished 7th after a prior win on dirt. The rest
> of the field in finish order & their next race:
> 2-7th BG, 3-8th BG, 4-4 Lex, 5-3rd Alw, 6-couldn\'t
> find a next race, 7-1st DT, 8-8th DT, 9-4 & 6 in
> MSWs, last 2 couldn\'t find another race. The last
> race this bad was the ultimate negative key
> race-the Delta Downs Jackpot (DH Z Humor/Turf War)
> that produced a continuous string of losers early
> this year
Time is short, the hour is late, I will try to keep it brief:
Denis of Cork: Apparently training and looking good. To me this one is
nearly as lightly raced as BB, but not nearly as talented. Toss.
Court Vision: I am on record as saying that CV would have gone by TOE if the
Wood were 10 furlongs. And now to get really scientific, the last Triple Crown
horse Mott made any noise with was also a \"Vision\" horse-- Vision and Verse,
second to Lemon Drop Kid in the Belmont. Using.
Visionaire: I like the fact that Barry Irwin jumps in and participates on the
board occasionally and I think this is a man who can be instrumental in bringing
about necessary change in racing. Oh sure BI slammed the Clown and Silver Charm
last week, but it turns out he was merely pointing out that they were involved
in a mutual exercise which we have come to find out enhances prostate health.
As to Visionaire, too many question marks for me: Lezcano, Grand Slam, what to
make of his sloppy Gotham effort, his best race to date. I toss him from the
top spot.
Smooth Air: Has done very little wrong and is being brought into the race the
right way. The 2 days of missed training should not be a factor conditioning
wise. Moved way forward in his last, but has had time to recover. I don\'t know
from the pedigree. I know some posters mentioned that Lil E Tee started at
Calder--what about Spend a Buck? The media is unfairly trying to make Bennie
Stutts,who is only 70, to be this year\'s Mrs Genter. Using.
To review: (Odds from NY Post)
USING: Adriano(20), Colonel John(9/2), Court Vision(15), Smooth Air(30), Tale
of Ekati(15)
TOSSING: Big Brown(7/2), Big Truck(50), Cool Coal Man(25), Denis of Cork(?),
Eight Belles(15), Gayego(12),Visionaire(20), Z Fortune(20).
Last night around 11pm I decided to get away from the speed #s and look at the charts of the derby preps. I found a horse I had totally dismissed is now on my list of must uses. This horse has defeated 7 other Derby horses, 6 in 1 race and another in a prior race. Of those 7 horses, 3 won subsequent Derby preps,and another 3 ran 3rd in Derby preps. Only one of these defeated horses didn\'t hit the board. As a result, I have labeled this race, which has produced six 2008 Derby starters as the best key race of all the Derby preps. When I tried to find other horses, who in a winning effort defeated other Derby entrants, the pickings were slim. I couldn\'t find another horse who had beaten more than 2 other Derby entrants while winning a race (If I\'m wrong, let me know-it was late last night when I did this). What if it rains? This horse\'s biggest margin of victory was on a wet fast track, Can he handle Churchill Downs? Well his best sheet number as a 2yo, which he paired as a 3 in this big key race, was run at CD, where he had defeated the other horse (who was not in this key race) I mentioned in the 7 who are here. After the key race, the horse then ran a bad race over polytrack and is now being dismissed. Shades of Thunder Gulch as he\'s trained by a 2 time Kentucky Derby winning trainer.
Last night Cool Coal Man leaped over about 15 horses on my Derby selections.
Richgret,
I\'ve done my best to talk you off Yo-Adrian-o and can do no more. I would have thought that last workout would have shook you up considering the horse\'s dirt form can\'t be measured. The fact is that in this day and age Horses that win the Kentucky Derby generally work out very well at Churchill. There are exceptions. (Funny Cide for instance-Who blew out nicely at Belmont, Giacomo-Who worked out in good time at Hollywood.) But, I can\'t remember the last mediocre Churchill worker to win the Derby. Adriano may not be a morning workhorse, but I\'m fairly certain they would have prefered he run down that workmate last in decent time. If he pulls it off you\'ll get good odds and bragging rights. (I\'m not sure the odds will nearly be appropriate though.)
Same is true for Visionaire. They let the grey maiden filly get a running start on him, but he couldn\'t close it up nearly in time in a relatively slow 4 furlong fraction. Theres a whole lot of obstacles with this one, but I could see him in the lower part of the exotics. For me, the measure of his progress will be how he fairs head to head with Pyro who handled him in the Risen Star. I also see a nice head to head with Court Vision:
\"Ladies and Gentlemen.....in the substance corner, running for Gas, the Two Year Old Champion.....PY ROOOOOOOOOOO....in the olympic hero\'s corner, running for Barry Irwin and Team Valor, renewed industry respect and future business, the challenger Vish...un...nareeeeeee. LETS GET READY TO RUMMMMMBLLLLEEEEEEEE\"
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Court Vision: I am on record as saying that CV
> would have gone by TOE if the
> Wood were 10 furlongs. And now to get really
> scientific, the last Triple Crown
> horse Mott made any noise with was also a \"Vision\"
> horse-- Vision and Verse,
> second to Lemon Drop Kid in the Belmont. Using.
>
> Visionaire: I like the fact that Barry Irwin jumps
> in and participates on the
> board occasionally and I think this is a man who
> can be instrumental in bringing
> about necessary change in racing. Oh sure BI
> slammed the Clown and Silver Charm
> last week, but it turns out he was merely pointing
> out that they were involved
> in a mutual exercise which we have come to find
> out enhances prostate health.
> As to Visionaire, too many question marks for me:
> Lezcano, Grand Slam, what to
> make of his sloppy Gotham effort, his best race to
> date. I toss him from the
> top spot.
>
> Smooth Air: Has done very little wrong and is
> being brought into the race the
> right way. The 2 days of missed training should
> not be a factor conditioning
> wise. Moved way forward in his last, but has had
> time to recover. I don\'t know
> from the pedigree. I know some posters mentioned
> that Lil E Tee started at
> Calder--what about Spend a Buck? The media is
> unfairly trying to make Bennie
> Stutts,who is only 70, to be this year\'s Mrs
> Genter. Using.
Nice work toppled. I didn\'t know that and will re-review....thank you.
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Last night around 11pm I decided to get away from
> the speed #s and look at the charts of the derby
> preps. I found a horse I had totally dismissed is
> now on my list of must uses. This horse has
> defeated 7 other Derby horses, 6 in 1 race and
> another in a prior race. Of those 7 horses, 3 won
> subsequent Derby preps,and another 3 ran 3rd in
> Derby preps. Only one of these defeated horses
> didn\'t hit the board. As a result, I have labeled
> this race, which has produced six 2008 Derby
> starters as the best key race of all the Derby
> preps. When I tried to find other horses, who in a
> winning effort defeated other Derby entrants, the
> pickings were slim. I couldn\'t find another horse
> who had beaten more than 2 other Derby entrants
> while winning a race (If I\'m wrong, let me know-it
> was late last night when I did this). What if it
> rains? This horse\'s biggest margin of victory was
> on a wet fast track, Can he handle Churchill
> Downs? Well his best sheet number as a 2yo, which
> he paired as a 3 in this big key race, was run at
> CD, where he had defeated the other horse (who was
> not in this key race) I mentioned in the 7 who are
> here. After the key race, the horse then ran a bad
> race over polytrack and is now being dismissed.
> Shades of Thunder Gulch as he\'s trained by a 2
> time Kentucky Derby winning trainer.
> Last night Cool Coal Man leaped over about 15
> horses on my Derby selections.
If he wasn\'t the slowest horse in the race, you make a compelling argument.
An argument that would have had you tearing up Scat Daddy tickets last year.
I may not be able to pick the winner, but I have been pretty adept in picking horses that are most likely to finish last over the years: High Limit and Cowtown Cat come to mind. I think Cool Coal Man is a strong contender to finish last, and I hold a Pool 2 futures ticket on him. He will press the pace and stop cold on the far turn.
There are certain important facts that you conveniently dismiss about CCM, not the least of which is that in his 2YO stakes appearance at CD, he pressed the pace, stopped cold, and finished last. Perhaps you overlooked that chart. Almost impossible for me to see him running a new top. Even if he pairs his top he finishes 10th.
Save your $2.
Good work, Toppled.
Lets talk TG#s and patterns.
Pattern 1: (beginning with 2YO debut) 11/10/7/3/10/6/3/10
Pattern 2: (beginning with 2YO debut) 6/6/5/7/8/2.
\"1\" is CCM.
\"2\" is a colt also trained by a former Derby winning trainer. \"2\" also won at CD as a 2YO.
Shoe change and blinkers helped \"2\" horse.
\"2\" horse is training better at CD to date.
Top jock ends up on \"2\" horse not Cool Coal Man.
Now you\'re talking, Richie B.
If they go fast enough, Colt #2 may go by them all. Besides, sire nearly won the race and dam won a Gr2 over the track.
BTW: Do the blinkers come off?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
One can make many of the same arguments for \"2\" that many are currently making for CV.
And \"2\" might be 4 or 5X the odds.
Still needs an inside post for me to consider him at the bottom of tickets.
I see pair up which might get him a piece with a really nice ground saving trip.
Agreed. Who beats who in the Wood if you switch post positions and trainer intent?
CV will be about 12-1; #2 may be 60-1.
As for CCM; Zito keeps saying he\'s not a robust colt and his races take a lot out of him. He probably bounced big time in the KY Juvenile after the strong allowance win (a \"3\"). That\'s probably why he treaded lightly in the Blue Grass with him and CCM will certainly run better than a \"10\". But is that how you want to bring them into the Derby....off one strong race in February?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
You\'re right about the FOY. Seen some strange commentating on it\'s being a negative key race. Downey, for instance, tossed CCM (correctly) from the Bluegrass because \"the competition in South Florida has been weak\" - and then he gives the nod to Monba in the BG?! Privman in the DerbyWatch acutally says the FOY is a negative key race, in spite of what you mention - AND remembering that CCM also beat Halo Najib and Kentucky Bear, who have also hit the board in preps. So, 8 of the 11 horses CCM beat in the FOY hit the board in preps (9, if you include Elysium Fields in the FOY itself). Maybe they\'re all bad, but you won\'t such that kind of depth in February prep races often.
That said, I\'ve changed my mind on CCM in the past week. Had been in your position, thinking he was much overlooked.
But I\'ve decided to toss him (though I certainly don\'t see him finishing last). In the FOY, he looked no cinch to make another 1/8 and came home very slowly. Got a great trip too (and also in his allowance win). The two runners he beat there that went on to win, won Poly races - so that doesn\'t say much. As Monmouth said, not fast enough. Even if he runs to a new top, it likely won\'t be enough to factor. That plus Kent D\'s odd comments on CCM this past week means I can\'t play him.
Which means Court Vision has no shot at all - cuz he had no shot at beating CCM in the FOY, even if they were still running. Adriano had more of an excuse, but I\'m not using him either.
Sorry, counted Anak Nakal at hitting the board in a prep when he clearly hasn\'t. Should be 7 of the 11 beaten by CCM hit the board in preps - 8 if you count EF.
I\'m not one to put much stock in perfect inside post trips at Gulfstream Park. RIP... TECHNOLOGY, HIGH FLY, VICAR, UNBRIDLED\'S SONG.
Possible preview of Derby odds; from a Thoroughbred Times poll as of this morning.
COLONEL JOHN 24%
BIG BROWN 20%
PYRO 11%
ADRIANO 7%
EIGHT BELLES 6%
DENIS OF CORK 6%
GAYEGO 6%
All other 13 add up to 20%.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I been on the smooth air bandwagon and workout watch for 3 months and I plan on staying the trip, but I will also use Court Vision, check out the last race, he was coming, he hated the \"greasy track\", he was all over it. If you remember, the day before with torrential rains they cancelled aqu and sealed the track, the track wasn\'t right. In addition, a 2 yr old win over CD track helps, the last number won\'t get it done, but I see a foward move, and Mott/Gomez only help. A live one.
CCM has all ready run as fast as CJ twice and one of them was at Churchill. I would rather bet CCM then CJ. Not sure why people are in love with this horse,but I will tell you this. He was life and death to get by BBJ a sprinter and he is plain SLOW! The funny thing is around 17 horses between the Fillies and Colts have run faster then CJ. Yes, his pattern is very explosive, but I do not see it explosive enough to suggest taking 5-1 or less. Good observation on CCM, though!
Cong,
You are forgetting that many Cali synth horses are \"outrunning\" their figs (several tops) when switching to dirt. Not to say CJ will, but it is certainly something to consider since he worked giant over the CD strip.
Mike
Miff, Your totally correct. But even if he does, don\'t you think he has to still jump big? Logic tells me to forgive Pyro,who IMO is cleary better than CJ.
Cong,
Thats what we don\'t know about horses coming off synth/poly. His present figs may be understated by that surface. Maybe his synth 3 is equal to a dirt 1.Not questioning the synth figs but the ability of horses to run fast per figs on the synth surface itself.
Mike
i wouldn\'t count her out- remember rocky IV she shows up in siberia early 3rd reel . in a rocky context, i\'m looking at the chances for adrian-o about the same as monba\'s - better than rockys chances for trying to catch the chicken in pt.II but not as good as him giving the slip to the kgb in pt. IV ...
Good point Mike.
Congaree,
Saying he was life and death to get by BBJ is a little dramatic, if not just plain ridiculous. This horse was just starting to get rolling at that point and galloped out tremendously. As Miff pointed out, horses running on synthetics have outrun their figs when shipping. Again, ignore at your own risk.
I wasn\'t watching all races at SA during that period, but I recently read an article that suggested that the outside paths were playing better at SA around the time of the SA Derby. That supposedly accounted for a lot of the zigging and zagging through the stretch. The jocks were trying to manuever to the best paths.
As ridiculous as it may sound,I\'m am ignoring CJ!! He was solid at 2, but not that fast. Infact, he is still not that fast and my guess is he will run well, but not enough too catch the faster ones. I think he is actually getting more attention than Big Brown. Maybe CJ will be the favorite. Good luck too all.
\"Anybody with a pre-conceived notion of trying to beat Big Brown on Saturday might want to reconsider after watching the gorgeous colt train over this racetrack for the first time Tuesday. In what could be called nothing short of a perfect morning, Big Brown looked awesome as he broke off under exercise rider Michelle Nevin near the six-furlong pole and simply glided over the racetrack while full of energy and seemingly oblivious to his new surroundings. Changing leads right on cue on every turn and moving fluidly for a horse of his stature, Big Brown was the picture of class while exuding the same type of confidence trainer Rick Dutrow has displayed since his horse won his 3-year-old debut earlier this winter at Gulfstream Park\"
Big Brown had me at hello:-)
Anak Nakal,
But Zito is moaning some crazy stuff about the drug testing.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good work, Toppled.
>
> Lets talk TG#s and patterns.
>
> Pattern 1: (beginning with 2YO debut)
> 11/10/7/3/10/6/3/10
>
> Pattern 2: (beginning with 2YO debut)
> 6/6/5/7/8/2.
>
> \"1\" is CCM.
>
> \"2\" is a colt also trained by a former Derby
> winning trainer. \"2\" also won at CD as a 2YO.
Lets assume CJ was not fast on whatever they call that nonsense out there.
He was certainly fast the other day. That was Not an ordinary work. The issue now is, not whether he is fast, its whether he went too fast.
congaree1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As ridiculous as it may sound,I\'m am ignoring CJ!!
> He was solid at 2, but not that fast. Infact, he
> is still not that fast and my guess is he will run
> well, but not enough too catch the faster ones. I
> think he is actually getting more attention than
> Big Brown. Maybe CJ will be the favorite. Good
> luck too all.
Should we refer to Hard Spun, on this matter?
You know, with all of this BB stuff ( see bellamy road, curlin,, etc) some of these jocks may be on the lookout for this one, and a little rough riding SHOULD be in order, now if that happens, this horse may come apart at the seams, never been there, done that, possible?
I read somewhere that before that stakes race at CD last year, he was a total mess before the race and had lost the race before it ever began, so I tossed the race out. I can\'t see him as the slowest in the field, as he has, not once, but twice-ran faster than the highly touted Colonel John-and the 1st time he did it as a 2yo. Now, if I throw out the Bluegrass, as the Pyromaniacs are doing, I find a horse who in his 2nd start as a 3 yo,ran back to his 2yo top-a very good sign in my opinion. His two year old top of 3 is faster than the 2yo tops of every other horse in the field with the exception of Pyro. Now, many of these horses couldn\'t reach their 3yo top until their final prep-3-5 weeks ago. With the 3 at 2, and the 3 at 3 over two months ago, if CCM is ready, he\'s going to explode that 3 and get his # right up there with the 3yo #s of all but BB. These horses never topped CCM\'s 3s until the last prep: TOE, Gayego, Monba, CV, Adriano, SA, AN, most of those were big jump ups which questions whether they can come back to those # or bounce. Additionally, these guys have never reached CCM\'s top: CJ, ZH, RTG, CC, BT and BBJ. That\'s 6 slower horses & 7 more who were slower than CCM going into their last race. At 20-1 or better I\'m using him & if he loses, I just hope I\'m on the winner in the DD. I\'m still keying on Pure Clan in the Oaks even from post 11 as I feel she is best off the pace (she was too close in the Fantasy due to the small field) I\'ll be using ZF, BB & CCM as my major wagers & saving with EB, CJ, TOE, DOC & G. If I win the Oaks, I can afford to be wrong on CCM-but if I win the Oaks & I\'m right on CCM, the risk will be well exceeded by the reward. Now it should be fast for the Derby, since the rains will have stopped hours before the race, but if it rains on Friday an interesting stat is the sire of the favorite, Proud Spell is 0/21 on wet tracks-but the crowd will see the good 2nd in last year\'s Breeder\'s Cup & jump all over her even more. I never want to put good $ on a horse to be the 1st one to get a win for its sire in any category. Meanwhile, Pure Clan\'s sire is a healthy 21% in 38 wet track starts (BRIS stats).
Big Brown might look awfully good on paper, but I remeber alot of other 3 hit wonders who captivated the minds of Derby cappers....Congaree, Curlin, Indian Charlie and Strodes Creek. None won, but all hit the board...moral of the story, he who ignores history is destined to repeat it.....unless he has the magic potion.
Old Mr. Boston Wrote:
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> Big Brown might look awfully good on paper, but I
> remeber alot of other 3 hit wonders who captivated
> the minds of Derby cappers....Congaree, Curlin,
> Indian Charlie and Strodes Creek. None won, but
> all hit the board...moral of the story, he who
> ignores history is destined to repeat
> it.....unless he has the magic potion.
I am not so sure I draw the same lesson you do from the same history.
Congaree and Curlin both ran great races and ran to their form. They just happen to get beat by horses that had already shown they were better (or jumped up to a better level).
If Big Brown approximates his prior race the same way that Congaree and Curlin did, who is going to stick with him? None of this can be looked at in isolation. Also, Congaree and Curlin had to run their races to have a chance. Big Brown can bounce and still win. There are not that many out there who can run negative numbers (which he could bounce and do). What\'s more, if he pairs up, he is gone.
So, to use the history lesson, if Big Brown is another Congaree or Curlin, how exactly does he get beat when he pairs up his prior figure?
The other thing that bothers me (and I do not know the answer to this) is that the only reason people think Big Brown is such a big bounce candidate is because that last figure was too extreme. How would somebody feel if his three races were 5-3-1? The \"1\" would not look like such a monstrous figure and people would be thinking that he might even run better. Why should the -3.5 be viewed as so extreme? It was extreme at one point, but he is not the first guy to run a number like that (Bellamy Road, Sinister Minister, Smarty Jones all ran in that ballpark, right?). My point is that eventually -3.5 is not going to be such a big deal. The key is how do we know when we are there?
I hate betting chalk and it does not make me happy to be looking at putting Big Brown at the top of my ticket, however, it looks unavoidable to me. The key thing that bothers me is that \"Big Brown\" just crying out to be known as \"Big Bounce\" Ugh, what to do!
I will say that there are some extremely interesting long shots to me. In fact, there are too many. Two that appeal to me that very little has been said about are Anak Nakal and Z Humor. While they are both obviously slow, they do have intriguing patterns to me and good reasons to think they may be the unusual horses that move forward in the Derby. Zito and Mott are both pretty good trainers and it would not be the first time with either that the perceived weaker half of the uncoupled entry surprised.
The neg 3.5 is a big, big number for a 3yr old, he\'s about 80% to run an off/x race if you buy into the spring 3 yr old study done in the last couple of years, add a wide turn or two, and he can certainly be beat, by a horse who runs slower with a better trip. 5/2 is not acceptable for this most likely scenario.
RICH Wrote:
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> The neg 3.5 is a big, big number for a 3yr old,
> he\'s about 80% to run an off/x race if you buy
> into the spring 3 yr old study done in the last
> couple of years, add a wide turn or two, and he
> can certainly be beat, by a horse who runs slower
> with a better trip. 5/2 is not acceptable for this
> most likely scenario.
Why on earth should he get a wide trip? If Kent D. uses the horse correctly, he clears the field to the 1st turn and gets the rail the rest of the way if he wants.
Assuming a relatively straight path, the extra distance Big Brown has to cover to get to the first turn by being in the 20-hole instead of the 1-hole is less than 4 feet, so the ground loss is extremely minor.
Now, if BB gets a horrendous wide trip around the first turn, Kent D. might want to just jump off the horse somewhere along the backstretch and look for a place to hide...because it will be on him, not Big Brown.
why would he get a wide trip? why not, post 20, speed inside, what\'s he going to do gun it, against all that speed, and all the others trying for position. I see nothing but trouble, if he wins from there with those conditions. He is the king.
In my esitmation, Big Brown clearly already is king. The quandry is simply can he do it again? Based on Tricky\'s past record with his top horses, I\'m inclined to say yes. I\'m keying BB on top of the horses TGJB suggested in the seminar.
Another thing people seem to forget is that it\'s hard to be wide on BOTH turns in the Derby if you have a quality speed horse. There\'s a good chance BB will be 3w or 4w on the club house turn but he should be in an ideal spot hugging the rail on the far turn if he\'s still galloping which I think he will be.
Would you rather be wide early or late? I clearly say early on the first turn. Many a horse has made a visually impressive bold move on the far turn in the Derby only to end up 8w and flatten out.
Wide Derby trips are not always a bad thing, just two years ago Barbaro was 3 wide in the firts turn and five to six wide down the backside and second turn. He only saw the rail late in the race when he drifted in. Giacomo, and Mike Smith, was at least four wide the entire race in 2005 and he still got the Roses.
If the track Saturday was like the one last year a wide trip will hurt Big Brown, otherwise it will have little to no outcome on the race.
jmetro Wrote:
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> Wide Derby trips are not always a bad thing, just
> two years ago Barbaro was 3 wide in the firts turn
> and five to six wide down the backside and second
> turn.
Yep, forgot about that.
What would you rather have, a slightly wide but relatively clean trip, or a ground-saving trip with potential traffic trouble late when all in front of you start puking?
I could be wrong, but as far as I can recall, there has been nobody that has won the Derby going more than 3w3w on the turns, which is where it matters.
Clocker report 5/1: Big Brown impresses
By MIKE WELSCH
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Big Brown buzz grew a little louder after the Kentucky Derby favorite worked three furlongs in 35.33 seconds here Thursday morning. Big Brown was one of two Derby starters to blow out for the race Thursday. Smooth Air covered the same distance in 37.99.
With regular exercise rider Michelle Nevin aboard, Big Brown came out on the track amidst quite a bit of traffic shortly after the renovation break and was clearly full of himself as he made his way down the backstretch before breaking off at the three-furlong pole. Hugging the inner rail and with Nevin offering no prompting, Big Brown posted splits of 11.89 seconds and 23.20 before crossing the finish line to the applause of the many fans attending the traditional Dawn at the Downs breakfast program. Nevin immediately grabbed into Big Brown to keep him from doing too much during his gallop -out.